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Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading

  • #1,501
  • Sep 4, 2008 1:46pm Sep 4, 2008 1:46pm
-0.95% went long
  • #1,502
  • Sep 4, 2008 3:12pm Sep 4, 2008 3:12pm
-1%
3rd long 1.5779
Average 1.5956

Let's boarding !

BBF
BigBlackfeet Always on the(forex) war path !
  • #1,503
  • Sep 4, 2008 4:23pm Sep 4, 2008 4:23pm
4th Lot entered at 1.5880
  • #1,504
  • Sep 4, 2008 4:28pm Sep 4, 2008 4:28pm
Quoting BLACKFEET
-1%
3rd long 1.5779
Average 1.5956

Let's boarding !

BBF
Wasn't it too cheap (I mean below the price!)?
  • #1,505
  • Sep 4, 2008 4:56pm Sep 4, 2008 4:56pm
Once again I've learned my lesson: when going long, grab eur first, and let usd/chf to retrace (it was retracing on M5 chart), now 15 min later it is down by about 20 pips. When dealing with such a trend these things matter I quess.

I am not getting into another lot until -1.50%, hopefully it won't go that low, because tomorrow NFP day so it might be hard to manage the trades in a speedy markets.

Good luck to everybody,
Lietuve
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  • #1,506
  • Sep 4, 2008 5:02pm Sep 4, 2008 5:02pm
Anyone know why E/U declined so sharply last hour??
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #1,507
  • Sep 4, 2008 5:32pm Sep 4, 2008 5:32pm
Quoting Pippopotamus
Anyone know why E/U declined so sharply last hour??
My guess is today somebody from ECB was talking that euro is still overvalued against the usd, later Asian markets started to liquidate carry trades and equity hedges on eur/jpy, pushing eur down, until it broke the resisstance of the previous range (Oct, Dec, Jan, Feb).

That's my guess on the chain of events, what's really happening I think we somehow forgot the last G7 meeting, where decision was made not to let devaluation of the $. It is a long time game to save the usd and we see slow and constant results of it.

Yep, the powers of the world.
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  • #1,508
  • Sep 4, 2008 5:36pm Sep 4, 2008 5:36pm
Everyone acted at 21:00 GMT? Waiting for US markets to close?? Why???
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #1,509
  • Sep 4, 2008 5:39pm Sep 4, 2008 5:39pm
Quoting Pippopotamus
Everyone acted at 21:00 GMT? Waiting for US markets to close?? Why???
These are the slow hours when markets are easier to manipulate.
  • #1,510
  • Sep 4, 2008 5:42pm Sep 4, 2008 5:42pm
What you say is plausible, but I remain unconvinced.
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #1,511
  • Sep 4, 2008 5:54pm Sep 4, 2008 5:54pm
Quoting Pippopotamus
What you say is plausible, but I remain unconvinced.
Of course, I just expressed my uneducated opinion, nothing else. My quess is as good as yours. But say, what would you do if you were a central banker and most of your assets were in usd, let's say several billion usd, and you'd see your equity coming down month by month 30%? Central banks do communicate... much better than you and me
  • #1,512
  • Sep 4, 2008 6:56pm Sep 4, 2008 6:56pm
I did think that your explination was a good one. I thought there might have been a scare somewhere. At this time I've come to believe you are probably right.
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #1,513
  • Sep 4, 2008 8:27pm Sep 4, 2008 8:27pm
guys i have 3 longs and a big DD. what is the next move?
i was thinking....... what if we

@ the time of opening the Long series also open a sell on EURCHF
@ the time of opening the sell series also open a buy on the EURCHF
trailing the EURCHF , just to keep DD down.
any ideas
  • #1,514
  • Sep 4, 2008 8:47pm Sep 4, 2008 8:47pm
1) Should we not trade when Trichet is speaking? His speech has caused a massive deccorelation last night.

2) I have tracked the pairs divergence from Jan 2007 to now and found out that the deccorelation last night is the biggest since Jan 2007.

Now, EUFCHF is moving back up again. Hopefully it doesnt go down further.
  • #1,515
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:19pm Sep 4, 2008 9:19pm
Entered 4th and 5th long positions today. Nothing more fun that watching the EUR/CHF tank when you're long.
So far here is my trade:
1st 1.6216 8/25
2nd 1.6176 8/25
3rd 1.6026 9/3
4th 1.5984 9/4
5th 1.5906 9/4
Thankfully I've closed 3 positions in that time to book some profits. I can't wait to see the Euro recover these losses so we can close all these positions in profit.
  • #1,516
  • Sep 5, 2008 12:35am Sep 5, 2008 12:35am
Yesterday was a black hole and today could be one again .

fasten seat belts
  • #1,517
  • Sep 5, 2008 12:52am Sep 5, 2008 12:52am
Quoting JuniorFX
1) Should we not trade when Trichet is speaking? His speech has caused a massive deccorelation last night.

2) I have tracked the pairs divergence from Jan 2007 to now and found out that the deccorelation last night is the biggest since Jan 2007.

Now, EUFCHF is moving back up again. Hopefully it doesnt go down further.

You are right, that's timing and who leads the pack. Here I am posting a chart with all three pairs overlayed: eur/chf (yellow), eur/usd(aqua) and usd/chf(red). I switched the usd/chf to the mirror image, so the synchronicity of the movements is easier to see. Of course, this kind of image depends where the starting point is, so this is for a year 2008. There are some ratios involved, but the chart cannot be posted with price grids of all the currencies involved (would be too messy to see in a small image).
All I can say is that timewise at the begining of the year red-aqua lines moved up, then the yellow (eurchf) would follow. Then we had asynchronous sideways move or range from April till mid July. For now
we have a huge usdchf move up from midst of July until now (luckily it have reached some resisstance), eur/usd down followed about 5 days later (looking backwards now I see it might have been predicted - too late beeing smart), and eur/chf down went from August 1st (this definitely could have been predicted). At this moment while red/aqua lines are showing some signs of a retracement and if retracements will occur - the eurchf being late follower might still go down.
So my quess is: we might be doing some heavy longs at least for a week or two to catch up with usdchf and eurusd in time. But my quess is not important here, what's important is to see how eurchf repeats the moves of usdchf and eurusd and what a time span is for those moves to occur.
That's why I am posting this chart.
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  • #1,518
  • Sep 5, 2008 1:19am Sep 5, 2008 1:19am
If you take the close of EURUSD X the close of USDCHF it will = EURCHF.

Therefore if EURUSD is 1.4363 and USDCHF is 1.1076, EURCHF will = 1.5908

However...

If EURUSD is 1.1076 and USDCHF is 1.4363, EURCHF will still = 1.5908

That means it is possible for EURCHF price to stay exactly where it is at this moment and to have the values of EURUSD and USDCHF move until there is no divergence in those pairs. No idea if it would happen practically - but it is possible. The question is what makes the EURCHF a leading value to EURUSD and USDCHF and will that hold? So that the overlay charts your looking at are true today and tomorrow.

BR








Quoting lietuve
You are right, that's timing and who leads the pack. Here I am posting a chart with all three pairs overlayed: eur/chf (yellow), eur/usd(aqua) and usd/chf(red). I switched the usd/chf to the mirror image, so the synchronicity of the movements is easier to see. Of course, this kind of image depends where the starting point is, so this is for a year 2008. There are some ratios involved, but the chart cannot be posted with price grids of all the currencies involved (would be too messy to see in a small image).
All I can say is that timewise at the begining of the year red-aqua lines moved up, then the yellow (eurchf) would follow. Then we had asynchronous sideways move or range from April till mid July. For now
we have a huge usdchf move up from midst of July until now (luckily it have reached some resisstance), eur/usd down followed about 5 days later (looking backwards now I see it might have been predicted - too late beeing smart), and eur/chf down went from August 1st (this definitely could have been predicted). At this moment while red/aqua lines are showing some signs of a retracement and if retracements will occur - the eurchf being late follower might still go down.
So my quess is: we might be doing some heavy longs at least for a week or two to catch up with usdchf and eurusd in time. But my quess is not important here, what's important is to see how eurchf repeats the moves of usdchf and eurusd and what a time span is for those moves to occur.
That's why I am posting this chart.
  • #1,519
  • Sep 5, 2008 1:19am Sep 5, 2008 1:19am
Hi,

that was quite a drop.

I have three open positions and they are all in negative pips big time.

eurchf shows divergence +0,22%

when should I close the positions?


Regards
  • #1,520
  • Sep 5, 2008 1:35am Sep 5, 2008 1:35am
The percentages are for the day of that position. Meaning IF you had purchased a long at -.25% today and it reached 0% today you would sell half and hold half till to see if todays .25% was hit. Tomorrow you get new values for that day. So you need to keep track of daily values.

BR

To follow is a table

1lot -0.25( or +0.25 of course) – Exit half at 0.00, other half close to +0.25
lot 2 -0.25 – Exit on 0.25 pb/ re-enter at -0.50 from previous exit
lot 3 -0.25 – Exit on 0.25 pb/ re-enter at -0.50 from previous exit
lot 4 -0.50 exit 0.25 pull back (pb) - re-enter at -0.50 from previous exit
Note: If first 4 entries in and no pullback then delay lot 5 until -1.0 not -0.50
Exit on -0.50 not -0.25and re-enter on -1.0 from previous exit
lot 5 -0.50 exit 0.25pb – re-enter at -0.50 from previous exit
lot 6 -1 exit 0.50 pb – re-enter at -1.00 from previous exit
lot 7 -1 exit 0.50 pb – re-enter at -1.00 from previous exit
lot 8 -2 exit 1 pb – re-enter at -2.00 from previous exit
lot 9 -2 exit 1 pb – re-enter at -2.00 from previous exit
lot10 -3% double lots exit 2pb -– No re-entry, just hold until pb


Quoting ashes
Hi,

that was quite a drop.

I have three open positions and they are all in negative pips big time.

eurchf shows divergence +0,22%

when should I close the positions?


Regards
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