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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #13,401
  • Sep 4, 2008 11:58am Sep 4, 2008 11:58am
Quoting sdot
on the current bar? maybe I'm missing it...care to post a chart?

edit: unless you meant the older one http://www.james16group.us/forums/im...ilies/1087.gif
It was after the CT long PB that failed.
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Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #13,402
  • Sep 4, 2008 12:19pm Sep 4, 2008 12:19pm
Hi,

My observations so far tell me that trading PA only is pure technical, is that right? There's no consideration to underlying fundamentals here, right? Or is it that the fundies have already been fully absorbed and reflected in the PA?

thanks,
xg
  • #13,403
  • Sep 4, 2008 1:53pm Sep 4, 2008 1:53pm
Re the failed EURUSD pin bar today.

There is nothing in any of the material both on here, and in the private forum **, about not trading against a strong downtrend.

On the contrary, it is taught that we should look for "space" around the pin and in order to get space there needs to be strong momentum.

This was a valid signal and unfortunately another loser.

** please correct me if I am wrong

Quoting pipsja
Unless I'm reading something wrong this is as good a daily pinbar as you're ever going to get. It bounced from a PPZ, it's at an extreme low and there's also a bit of MACD divergence. The big problem is the strong downtrend that has been killing pinbars for the past few weeks so I am very reluctant to trade it.
It would be interesting to hear the views of the senior guys on this one and also the daily pinbar on the USCHF.
  • #13,404
  • Sep 4, 2008 2:00pm Sep 4, 2008 2:00pm
Quoting fxprocessor
There is nothing in any of the material both on here, and in the private forum **, about not trading against a strong downtrend.

On the contrary, it is taught that we should look for "space" around the pin and in order to get space there needs to be strong momentum.

This was a valid signal and unfortunately another loser.

** please correct me if I am wrong
I would say there is some caution to trading against such a strong downtrend. Usually I will pass on these types of trades, unless we get a much bigger reaction pin bar. Meaning the overall size of the bar stands out compared to the recent strong move.

With that said I really liked to location of this pin, so I place a buy order but it was never hit. This happened recently where my order was also never hit on the AUD/USD. What I do is look for rd numbers to place my order just on or above. In this case xx50 was looming right above, so I place my order just above that. Similar to what I did on AUD/USD a few weeks back. Just my spin I have put on some of the material and my knowledge of orderflow tendencies. I tend to do this in these types of markets more then I might when things just look very right.

Still even if you took a loss on this, I wouldn't go kicking myself around about it.

I also had a pending buy order above nzd/usd at .6910 but I have since canceled this as the pin has since broke the low.

I would also say that traders that play pins on the retrace might want to take heavy trending markets into consideration and have rules that might prevent them from playing retraces in this type of market. Again testing to confirm any such thought.

Mike
  • #13,405
  • Sep 4, 2008 2:13pm Sep 4, 2008 2:13pm
The key to all of this is knowing what way it's going, you can use MA's you can use bar counts, you can use the ocean it does not matter but if you know the direction of the market getting into it off a pullback is the way to go.

Also people that say the 5min has more risk never traded a flat market, the 5min will always have a trend everyday, it maybe 30-60min but it will have one I can get my 10 in on. The one thing I dislike about PB's is 90+% of the time they are counter-trend on here, no one really takes one with the trend. PB's for me seem to work best when the market is NOT trending and going sideways and it's at a BB extreme.

Go back on the 4hr / daily, put up some BB 18/2 and look what happens when you get a PB and the bands are flat and the PB has hit a extreme on the band, it's money in the bank time after time. One last thing, I am not here pushing my stuff I just know what works and have been doing it for a while and like to see people make money. So many people spend so much time trying to get the perfect setup and it is never going to happen ever, everyday is different but price does not change.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #13,406
  • Sep 4, 2008 2:29pm Sep 4, 2008 2:29pm
Hey Mike

The bar low I have highlighted on my chart is at 1.4571.

If we waited for the break of the 1.4550 we have this bar low to contend with 21 pips later.

Why not wait for 1.4600 to break as it is a double zero?

I did not loose anything btw as I didn't trade it.


cheers

FXP








Quoting mbqb11
What I do is look for rd numbers to place my order just on or above. In this case xx50 was looming right above, so I place my order just above that. Similar to what I did on AUD/USD a few weeks back. Just my spin I have put on some of the material and my knowledge of orderflow tendencies. I tend to do this in these types of markets more then I might when things just look very right.


Mike
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  • #13,407
  • Sep 4, 2008 2:30pm Sep 4, 2008 2:30pm
Quoting fxprocessor
Hey Mike

The bar low I have highlighted on my chart is at 1.4571.

If we waited for the break of the 1.4550 we have this bar low to contend with 21 pips later.

Why not wait for 1.4600 to break as it is a double zero?

I did not loose anything btw as I didn't trade it.


cheers

FXP
Well it depends on the style of trader you are. If you trade ala James16 he moves stops quicker takes profit etc and these types of areas. I trail my stops. So once I am in a trade ,a bar low such as that is not going to scare me out of my trade. This is how I personally trade.

Mike
  • #13,408
  • Sep 4, 2008 3:06pm Sep 4, 2008 3:06pm
Hi,
you always say " I trail my stops " , How can i imagine it? you trail 30 pips,40?15?100?

Quoting mbqb11
Well it depends on the style of trader you are. If you trade ala James16 he moves stops quicker takes profit etc and these types of areas. I trail my stops. So once I am in a trade ,a bar low such as that is not going to scare me out of my trade. This is how I personally trade.

Mike
  • #13,409
  • Sep 4, 2008 3:18pm Sep 4, 2008 3:18pm
Quoting Jankone
Hi,
you always say " I trail my stops " , How can i imagine it? you trail 30 pips,40?15?100?
Hey

I manually trail my stops. That is using discretion. Most are familiar with my 2 bar exit strategy as one of my many trailing tools. You can use prior bar lows, simple PA, support and resistance etc. I don't use a broker trailing stop as you refer to above.

Best,
Mike
  • #13,410
  • Sep 4, 2008 3:23pm Sep 4, 2008 3:23pm
sounds reasonable. great. I have to train this. happy pipping!

Quoting mbqb11
Hey

I manually trail my stops. That is using discretion. Most are familiar with my 2 bar exit strategy as one of my many trailing tools. You can use prior bar lows, simple PA, support and resistance etc. I don't use a broker trailing stop as you refer to above.

Best,
Mike
  • #13,411
  • Sep 4, 2008 3:43pm Sep 4, 2008 3:43pm
For sure, trading pure J16 private forum style and taking small profits but having big stop losses has been a nightmare in these current market conditions.

At least your way of trading can withstand these hard times as you let your winners run.


Quoting mbqb11
Well it depends on the style of trader you are. If you trade ala James16 he moves stops quicker takes profit etc and these types of areas. I trail my stops. So once I am in a trade ,a bar low such as that is not going to scare me out of my trade. This is how I personally trade.

Mike
  • #13,412
  • Sep 4, 2008 3:54pm Sep 4, 2008 3:54pm
Quoting fxprocessor
For sure, trading pure J16 private forum style and taking small profits but having big stop losses has been a nightmare in these current market conditions.

At least your way of trading can withstand these hard times as you let your winners run.
hey processor:

this month i demo'd j16 combining mbqb's conservative entry strategy WITH j16's conservative exit strategy and i actually made out alright ... (even though i traded all kinds of goofy-looking pins that lacked any "weight of the evidence" factors -- which i did on purpose to fully understand the reasoning behind j16, mbqb, etc. etc. instructing us to trade only the best set-ups not just every pin we see --- needless to say, i learnt A LOT) ... so, sometimes, your winners will run and sometimes they won't, but jarroo has often suggested it is better to minimize losses than to maximize gains (or something like that ... i don't have one his posts handy right now - he can correct me if i am saying it wrong).

good luck and good trading...
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #13,413
  • Sep 4, 2008 4:00pm Sep 4, 2008 4:00pm
Just woke up to see the EURUSD PB invalidated pretty emphatically...seemed in a pretty good spot to me but I didn't take it as the trend is pretty strong...though I do think it may be running out of steam.

To trade a PB North in this situation I'd like to see an exhaustion-spike style of pinbar.....super long nose and everything lining up right otherwise I'll stick with trading in the direction of the trend.....picking bottoms is.....as they say in Australia " A mugs game"

A while to go but it looks like we are getting a BEOB on the pair to ponder.
  • #13,414
  • Sep 4, 2008 4:11pm Sep 4, 2008 4:11pm
Hi FXgrinder


If one was to enter a trade with a random entry criteria such as "every time your favourite football team scored a goal go long", for one month, with a 1:1 risk reward ratio there is a reasonable chance it would be successful over such a small test period too.


I sincerely wish you good luck with your trading too.

cheers

fxp

Quoting fxgrinder
hey processor:

this month i demo'd j16 combining mbqb's conservative entry strategy WITH j16's conservative exit strategy and i actually made out alright .
  • #13,415
  • Sep 4, 2008 4:45pm Sep 4, 2008 4:45pm
Quoting fxprocessor
Hi FXgrinder


If one was to enter a trade with a random entry criteria such as "every time your favourite football team scored a goal go long", for one month, with a 1:1 risk reward ratio there is a reasonable chance it would be successful over such a small test period too.


I sincerely wish you good luck with your trading too.

cheers

fxp
good idea ... im going to try that ... (i've been tempted by the coin flip strategy too ... )

kidding aside, the idea that i was trying to get across was that trading every pin bar in sight will not work out and even more will lose w/o supporting factors AND unless i have something else in place to protect me when i might take a set-up that is not ideal, trading will most certainly be as challenging as some found it over the last month or two. also, so there is no misunderstanding, i don't advocate trading every pin bar in town, but instead, finding decent set-ups and implementing a very conservative approach to even the entries on seemingly perfect set-ups and conservative exits too. i managed to survive most of the market madness this month because of the conservative approach i took regarding exits/entries not in spite of it.

cheers to you too and good trading.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #13,416
  • Sep 4, 2008 5:01pm Sep 4, 2008 5:01pm
Or you could take the few 1hr shorts that showed up and then not worry about it. Anyway best of luck to everyone and I hope a few people do start to look at the trend, I think it's human nature to want to CT trade but that was a few years and 50k in losses before I ran with the trend. Yes it's not as sexy as catching a top or bottom but it sure beats working for someone else
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #13,417
  • Sep 4, 2008 6:50pm Sep 4, 2008 6:50pm
Im done trading pin bars! tried them for 2 months, 90% failed. They suck according to current market conditions. Please spare me of all the PPZ and long nose and bla bla BS. And mostly spare me of the different brokers feeds, thats the worst excuse ever.

Why isnt James posting charts of failed Pin bars? of course, he will always find an excuse. Different broker feeds. Or risk 150 pips but take profit very quickly at 50 pips. Great MM. Whatever. Im sorry for the angry message, Im just pissed off because Im trading pin bars instead of trading the obvious.

Going back to the basics which is S/R.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #13,418
  • Sep 4, 2008 6:52pm Sep 4, 2008 6:52pm
Hey everyone, I've been a long time follower and reader on this thread. I've tested many pairs and have been trading live with 1% per trade in a small $300 dollar account since July. I have done many demo trades and backtesting before this. I've been a bit discourage lately as more and more pins seem to fail. Some days I have no trades and others its usually only 1 or 2. Back in August I had about 5 or 6 pins fail on me 8-12 - 8-15 that were all good looking trades and this put a little dent into my account. Here are a few failed pins I recently had. Maybe someone can offer some words of encouragement or advice. I take only good looking PA setups off S&R lines.
The first trade I stopped out at BE because the pin initially failed then my trade triggered and I moved it to BE the next day.

Thanks in advance.
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  • #13,419
  • Sep 4, 2008 7:09pm Sep 4, 2008 7:09pm
Wow, I finally finished reading this thread. Took me almost a whole month. Anyway I have a question on a chart. The daily EURAUD is showing a DBLHC, I entered in above the high of the previous day. Question is, was that the right place to enter? I made a quick 20 pip profit but got stopped out on my other trade (still broke even). Anyone think it'll hit higher when the Aussie markets open? Looks like it has two lines of resistance nearby, then it should go for awhile.



Appreciate any thoughts.
  • #13,420
  • Sep 4, 2008 7:40pm Sep 4, 2008 7:40pm
Quoting gagiul
Im done trading pin bars! tried them for 2 months, 90% failed. They suck according to current market conditions. Please spare me of all the PPZ and long nose and bla bla BS. And mostly spare me of the different brokers feeds, thats the worst excuse ever.

Why isnt James posting charts of failed Pin bars? of course, he will always find an excuse. Different broker feeds. Or risk 150 pips but take profit very quickly at 50 pips. Great MM. Whatever. Im sorry for the angry message, Im just pissed off because Im trading pin bars instead of trading the obvious.

Going back to the basics which is S/R.
I am not sure what pins you have traded in the past couple of months, but I've caught some doosies that have caught over 1000 pip moves. I have an EU short still running from 1.58. Missed the AU short, but also caught cable's, geppy's and EJ's nice run down (all had nice PB's or PA to trade).

I agree that in the past few weeks, many PB's AGAINST the minor trends have failed miserably. That's the price you pay when trying to pick tops and bottoms. If your equity cannot handle such approaches, then sit on the sideline until PA develops with the trend. Better still, demo trade until you learn to pick the best set-ups and identify the lower probability trades. James and many others have pleaded that all people begin trading PA this way.

Using PA with S/R is a powerful way to trade, sure you'll have losers, but you'll also have many great winners too. Ensure you practice strict MM and you'll live to fight another day (or 100).

Even with S/R, many recent trades would have failed you too (especially on the EU as it has broken a number of key support levels).

I am not sure who told you take profit at 50 pips. Each to their own on how you exit the trade, I personally use the DIBS 1/2 off at 1:1 approach (for the "free trade"), sometimes even 2/3's off at 1:1 to lock in some profit and let the rest ride using key S/R when moving my stops.
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