Is there a formula or a rule of thumb about momentum and entry % of eurchf?
Regards
Regards
Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading
Sorry but i cannot spend my time answering questions i have already answer several times.
Let me makes some things clearer:
craigaudio
Member
I have already answered in details to the period you are talking about and i get through it without any problem.
ok, sorry about that, i found the post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=95721&page=42
However according to the rules stated, there were no opportunities to exit pullbacks for up to the first 4 lots, then for the fifth entry we only enter after a 1% down day which is many days after the 4th lot was entered.
Also you talk about taking a short signal with the method. I thought you only trade the hedge one way? Otherwise you are hedging the hedge.
Ive probably got it wrong so please correct me. From what i read in the previous post the specific, the way in which you traded yourself out of that situation was not fully commented on.
A run through of how you handled this worst case situation would be a great benefit to those who are considering going live with this system.
Generally i am ok with the idea that gravity center of eur/chf is not static ( unfortunatly ) and is always mooving. But we are enough correlated to be abble by working position to make profits balancing losses due to a big trend against first lots.
I have never said that you make no loss at all, you can decide a max dd of course and you can sometimes cut some lots with a loss ( sometime what i call a trade will be positiv anyway because of working positions)
Yes i can decide when to cut losses but im asking at what point do you, as the expert of the system, decide to cut a loss on one of these scenarios. I have not traded this system and you have all the experience so im asking the professional to comment on how far we would have to get into DD before he would consider trimming positions back? How do u work that scenario? I dont believe youve covered that fully in this forum.
In previous posts you have worked through live examples of when you trim positions that become +.25 in profit but you have not gone through the worst worst case scenario like a black swan event and how you would handle that position. I have not read an example here whereby you have had 4 days down without a pullback in order to take profit on your best entry. Im just wondering how you work your emergency plan if such events occur. How and when you decide to cut if you have 4 lots that have not come back to trim them out, esp if you are net short and losing money everyday holding them with swops and DD?
One could trade this method for a few months with no severe DD and then a massive drop could occur with the individual having 4 positons in the market and no pullback and not knowing what to do. im just wondering how you handle that situation. As you are the only person who has experience of this would be great to get the headsup on how to deal with this.
Trading eur/chf is doable
As for the swap, one of my broker is giving interests when you are long usd/chf and not charging like oanda so with this broker you win more on the paires.
What im saying is that if you are building positions net short, you are losing cash on the swop. If you get in a situation where you have 30 days with open shorts it will start to weigh heavy on your account. Therefore i would only consider going in the direction of the swops with this system.
The one leg thing is not just a #gadget# it helps you making very nice outright trades by entering in the direction of the moove .
As for the margin and exit i am ok with you and as soon as you keep the core part of the system ( working position and sound mm conservative approach) you can do what you explain .
As for the psychological part i am not that sure you have enough worked on this part as i have never met a trader 100% confortable with that.( of course they always think they are fine with it)
Yeah watching DD on your acct sucks doesnt it, although it is a neccessary evil i guess with this method of trading.
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Many Thanks For taking the time to answer my questions. I really appreciate you sharing. Im just looking for more clarification of how to handle the scaryiest moments of the system that all :-)
If you dont have time to answer i totally understand. I will be monitoring all the live posts and demoing myself to get a feel for the method anyway.
Craig
- #1,466
- Sep 2, 2008 12:07pm Sep 2, 2008 12:07pm
hi spieler and all members
I know that u wrote many times that trading eur/usd and usd/chf isn't the same as trading eur/chf. But as i read it carefully u wrote only two/three advantages why it;s better to use these 2 pair instead of eur/chf -
FIRST ADVANTAGE ( the most important and the only reason why it;s better to use 2 pairs instead of one in my opinion ) - when u enter or exit the trade u can do it not at the same time but buy/sell one currency earlier and second currency later and earn some pips more. Second - psychological reason( we have all strong psyche, dont worry about us. And Third - u wrote that u can earn more from swaps when u use 2 pairs instead of one.
I will write now why i use EUR/CHF instead of using both EUR/USD and USD/CHF and why i think it;s better to use only eur/chf to trade your system
Firstly
U have 2 times lower margin used when u trade only EUR/CHF
lets say i buy 1 lot eur/chf so my broker Oanda( leverage 1:50, euro currency) takes 2000 Euro margin.
if i buy 1 lot eur/usd and 1.5 or 1.4 usd/chf margin used will be 4000 EURO ( 2000 Euro for eur/usd pair and about 2000 Euro for usd/chf)
It;s big advantage in this strategy when u have more free margin especially when big trend with no pullbacks will come.
Secondly
U get more swaps when u use only EUR/CHF. Use Oanda calculator to check it. If u buy ( long) 1 lot eur/usd and buy 1.4lot usd/chf and u keep it 24 hours u get: 5.99 USD for eur/usd and -1.53 USD for usd/chf so u are +4.46 USD daily. IF u buy 1lot eur/chf and keep it 24 hours u get +6.59 USD. IT;s quite big difference.
Thirdly
when u use eur/chf u dont have to be all time in front of computer and not be worry that u miss your entry/exit point because u can use Limit Order to take your "take profit" when price will come back 0.25 or limit order also for entry. Sometimes price is 10 pips from your exit level and u have to go to bed or somewhere
sry for my english
what do u think about it guys?? spieler??
However, spieler is going to talk now about fine tuning. He has also promised to go into more detail later about the one leg thing and exactly how to use it. He is not just using it for entries, it can also be used to cut one leg from an open hedge position to make much more profit but we need a lot more instruction from spieler before we try this.
I have a feeling though that once he reveals all this extra stuff we will want to trade the hedge instead of the cross but lets wait and see.
By the way, I sent a PM to SwingMan a couple of weeks ago asking if he could write a babysitting program we could all use when we have to be away from the computer. This will not be an EA to trade the system but a simple script that can close the last opened hedge or open a new hedge position based on price levels for EUR/CHF. That will solve the problem of missed entries/ exits. SwingMan has promised to write this program sometime this week. I for one am very grateful for his very generous contribution to this thread.
#However according to the rules stated, there were no opportunities to exit pullbacks for up to the first 4 lots#
Not really because somewhere lost in this thread i said that i never take hedge postions between 24th december till 04th january, so i was not in your 4 lots trades.
Reason for that ? Yes , end of year is really a mess for currencies.
Sovereign central banks have to realocate for balance sheet purpose
Banks and hedge fund have to do the same by using options or forwards to externalise their profits ( or losses) in national currency etc etc
THis is window dressing time and i know for years that no rules apply no correlations work nothing logical so i am only scalping or not trading these days .
Not really because somewhere lost in this thread i said that i never take hedge postions between 24th december till 04th january, so i was not in your 4 lots trades.
Reason for that ? Yes , end of year is really a mess for currencies.
Sovereign central banks have to realocate for balance sheet purpose
Banks and hedge fund have to do the same by using options or forwards to externalise their profits ( or losses
) in national currency etc etc THis is window dressing time and i know for years that no rules apply no correlations work nothing logical so i am only scalping or not trading these days .
#However according to the rules stated, there were no opportunities to exit pullbacks for up to the first 4 lots#
Not really because somewhere lost in this thread i said that i never take hedge postions between 24th december till 04th january, so i was not in your 4 lots trades.
Reason for that ? Yes , end of year is really a mess for currencies.
Sovereign central banks have to realocate for balance sheet purpose
Banks and hedge fund have to do the same by using options or forwards to externalise their profits ( or losses
THis is window dressing time and i know for years that no rules apply no correlations work nothing logical so i am only scalping or not trading these days .
Ok thanks for this clarification mate.
Are there any other periods of year one must be diligent with entries and not trade this method. Perhaps summer months when market volume is low due to the summer season of holidays?
Thanks for your replies. I really like the look of this method and your time spent posting is much appreciated :-)
I have got one Long position from 25/8 left, too.
Until today I worked another Long position for a "+0,25%" profit.
(2nd lot long -0,50% to -0,25%)
Yesterday I opened a 2nd Lot again. I'm still confident on this whole trade.
As I already booked a profit and now I'm waiting for the 2nd lot to run into profit.
Maybe then I close the very first Lot with a small loss (which is a profit for the overall trade)
Hope it helps
Are you break-even overall?
