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NZDUSD Discussion

  • #201
  • Aug 22, 2008 1:39pm Aug 22, 2008 1:39pm
Hi When is the appropriate time enter a trade on NZD/USD for profit.
  • #202
  • Aug 22, 2008 5:40pm Aug 22, 2008 5:40pm
Quoting networkidea
Hi When is the appropriate time enter a trade on NZD/USD for profit.
Allways.
  • #203
  • Edited Aug 25, 2008 6:05am Aug 24, 2008 2:38pm | Edited Aug 25, 2008 6:05am
We had bearish engulfment pattern on candlestick chart on Friday IMO.
Going down or needs confirmation?
Fibo 38,2 (from 7763 to 6820) did hold even it was tested big time.
And if I look at Fibonacci arcs from that move I can see Kiwi tested resistance at 7220. If it's able to break 7060 than 7020 and 7000...maybe 6800?

Just my imagination and whishfull thinking?
(I'm short and if doesn't reverse I'll be short on equity...)
  • #204
  • Edited 5:08am Aug 26, 2008 1:41am | Edited 5:08am
The trade balance is approximately 24 % of New Zealand's GDP. With it dropping, there is not much room for a rate hold left. Enjoy it, short side is the best side I haven't set my target yet and I won't be able to do it till the official rate is announced on the 10th of September.

P.S. I guess we are heading to 0.6750, this is what i am aiming for before the official interest rate is out.
  • #205
  • Sep 2, 2008 1:41am Sep 2, 2008 1:41am
So after a this low volatility ranging period we are back in tracks My targets are ~0.6250, but of course it is possible to go even lower when we have a hawkish statement with the new interest rate
  • #206
  • Sep 2, 2008 2:20am Sep 2, 2008 2:20am
Anyone else buying the triple bottom (so far) in NZD/JPY?
  • #207
  • Sep 2, 2008 2:59am Sep 2, 2008 2:59am
looks like end of wave b time to wave c target around 7270 maybe higher
depend on reach of the first subwave up.
anyway went long 6832
  • #208
  • Sep 2, 2008 3:03am Sep 2, 2008 3:03am
I'm also long, 6834. My t/p is 6898. Not entirely sure what to set s/l to... Any of you Fibo experts have any tips on that?
Do you think the karate kid knows kung-fu?
  • #209
  • Sep 2, 2008 3:06am Sep 2, 2008 3:06am
Quoting Trader KGB
Anyone else buying the triple bottom (so far) in NZD/JPY?
yes
  • #210
  • Sep 2, 2008 3:09am Sep 2, 2008 3:09am
Quoting 5ysfx
looks like end of wave b time to wave c target around 7270 maybe higher
depend on reach of the first subwave up.
anyway went long 6832
He meant NZD/JPY not NZD/USD. The chart looks good, triple bottom on daily, 74.10 looks like a damn good support. But KGB, i wouldn't buy knowing the fundamentals of the NZD and the expactations for the rate statement on 10th. USD/JPY looks bullish though.
  • #211
  • Sep 2, 2008 3:24am Sep 2, 2008 3:24am
Quoting Pirin
He meant NZD/JPY not NZD/USD. The chart looks good, triple bottom on daily, 74.10 looks like a damn good support. But KGB, i wouldn't buy knowing the fundamentals of the NZD and the expactations for the rate statement on 10th. USD/JPY looks bullish though.
yea whatever
i reversed my position at .6815 TP below .67
  • #212
  • Sep 2, 2008 3:34am Sep 2, 2008 3:34am
i thought nzd/usd was going to .68 then .72 then .68 then .90.... its on monthly tl , it should be good support (dont listen to me)
  • #213
  • Sep 2, 2008 3:36am Sep 2, 2008 3:36am
Quoting Clouds
(dont listen to me)
We are trying to, but you just can't stop posting

P.S. Just kidding, we enjoy reading everyone's opinion
  • #214
  • Sep 2, 2008 3:54am Sep 2, 2008 3:54am
Still long, but mostly just because my s/l hasn't been hit yet.
Do you think the karate kid knows kung-fu?
  • #215
  • Sep 2, 2008 4:16am Sep 2, 2008 4:16am
Quoting Pirin
We are trying to, but you just can't stop posting

P.S. Just kidding, we enjoy reading everyone's opinion
the chart looks like it could go down to .60 for a triple bottom, but i do see some support where there was a low in september at .68, it did drop to .66 also, but bounced off .68 support 4 weeks in a row
  • #216
  • Sep 2, 2008 4:23am Sep 2, 2008 4:23am
Quoting Pirin
But KGB, i wouldn't buy knowing the fundamentals of the NZD and the expactations for the rate statement on 10th. USD/JPY looks bullish though.
The same was true on 8/13, nonetheless the pair was still good for a 400 pip rally. It just depends on your time horizon.
  • #217
  • Sep 2, 2008 4:52am Sep 2, 2008 4:52am
Quoting Trader KGB
The same was true on 8/13, nonetheless the pair was still good for a 400 pip rally. It just depends on your time horizon.
aud/jpy has tl support at 90, and is at 90,,, gbp/jpy low is at 193, and is at 193,,, nzd/jpy is at 74, low there... all good in the hood
  • #218
  • Sep 2, 2008 5:07am Sep 2, 2008 5:07am
It has not been able to break .6800. It's gotten close a couple times, but each time it bounces back up. Guess that means it's gonna break soonish, right? Support can only be bumped so many times before the currency wins, isn't that how it works?
Do you think the karate kid knows kung-fu?
  • #219
  • Sep 2, 2008 5:07am Sep 2, 2008 5:07am
Quoting Clouds
aud/jpy has tl support at 90, and is at 90,,, gbp/jpy low is at 193, and is at 193,,, nzd/jpy is at 74, low there... all good in the hood
Exactly. We double bottomed on G/J at the '08 low (12 hours ago), triple bottomed on N/J, and hit trendline support on A/J. With equities up >1% in europe and US futures, I don't see these major carry support levels being taken out today.

N/J and N/U both failed to find a new bottom on this recent dip (even though aussie, sterling, and fiber all did). Nice relative outpeformance on the kiwi here.

edit - also worth mentioning that U/J is ticking up in tandem with the high yielders, hence the carry being bought/shorts covered.
  • #220
  • Sep 2, 2008 5:13am Sep 2, 2008 5:13am
Almost a replica of 8/13 playing out here, N/J sold off 2% (huge daily move) to major technical support, then reverses like a bat out of hell.
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