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No Brainer Trades

  • #3,421
  • Sep 1, 2008 7:12am Sep 1, 2008 7:12am
GU has been supported at 1.8000 for last 11 hrs
i've just gone long @ 1.810, SL 1.7999, Target 1.8049


call me crazy if you like as i'm
also going to place a very small position here to try and pick the bottom
Don't kill your dreams - execute them.
  • #3,422
  • Sep 1, 2008 7:18am Sep 1, 2008 7:18am
I've also placed an order to sell on stop @ 1.7997, SL @1.810, Target 1.7951
Don't kill your dreams - execute them.
  • #3,423
  • Sep 1, 2008 8:27am Sep 1, 2008 8:27am
my gu trades both turned into losers
tight stops reduce the size of the loss but increase chance of being whipped
no follow through with 1.8000 level break so see this as strong support now
steve
Don't kill your dreams - execute them.
  • #3,424
  • Sep 1, 2008 8:52am Sep 1, 2008 8:52am
Quoting SABTrader
my gu trades both turned into losers
tight stops reduce the size of the loss but increase chance of being whipped
no follow through with 1.8000 level break so see this as strong support now
steve
Your first idea was actually good, but the problem is that there are no sup/res numbers, there actually are sup/res areas, for GU it is 1.810 - 1.799 now as can be seen at M5 chart (that can be read as 2005.06.12 1.7999 level +- 10 pips), so playing with pips isn't really good decision, simple widening could turn both of your orders into profitable ones - i guess GU will really hit 1.7959 right after 1.79 passing, its level breakout in the direction of the trend pattern.
  • #3,425
  • Sep 1, 2008 9:48am Sep 1, 2008 9:48am
really newb question here... what´s the criteria for a breakout? maybe there's some place you can direct me to. Is it around 10 pips beyond the level? or a specific time frame bar/candle closing beyond a level?

thank you very much, and cheers!

rafa.

Quoting hyh
Your first idea was actually good, but the problem is that there are no sup/res numbers, there actually are sup/res areas, for GU it is 1.810 - 1.799 now as can be seen at M5 chart (that can be read as 2005.06.12 1.7999 level +- 10 pips), so playing with pips isn't really good decision, simple widening could turn both of your orders into profitable ones - i guess GU will really hit 1.7959 right after 1.79 passing, its level breakout in the direction of the trend pattern.
  • #3,426
  • Sep 1, 2008 2:17pm Sep 1, 2008 2:17pm
I personally have none and in fact doubt that there can be simple deterministic rule, too many factors around, you always need to understand fundamental environment, trend direction, momentum of the move, etc
And even if you understand everything right there is quite low probability that you can determine turning point with 1-2-3 pip precision.
And i think that its always better to play it safe: enter later with less profits/have wider stoploss than enter/have stoploss hit on false breakout.
Just my cents..
Maybe more experienced ones have wiser thoughts
  • #3,427
  • Sep 1, 2008 4:10pm Sep 1, 2008 4:10pm
Still some work to do but here it is so far ... bear in mind the s/R levels (white areasare predicted in advance based on the previous S/R levles in the 15/60 and 240 min timeframes

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  • #3,428
  • Sep 1, 2008 5:04pm Sep 1, 2008 5:04pm
Quoting pmurfin
Still some work to do but here it is so far ... bear in mind the s/R levels (white areasare predicted in advance based on the previous S/R levles in the 15/60 and 240 min timeframes

Attachment
Looks promising, have you tried entering or exiting trades based on the identified areas of S/R?
  • #3,429
  • Sep 1, 2008 8:48pm Sep 1, 2008 8:48pm
Hey all

Just a question about gaps and how we should react to them...

Is it business as usual or should we not be looking to trade against the direction of the gap till it's filled?

Example today on GBP/USD theres a big gap and also an obvios Resistance level before it.

Maybe a better play here would be to wait for the resistance to break and then look to go long on the retest?

Cheers
Time hides Nothing
  • #3,430
  • Sep 1, 2008 8:58pm Sep 1, 2008 8:58pm
I'm watching U/CHF rising to 1.1040 for another short. Been shorting this one off this level for a couple of weeks but action ths time seems a bit different.
History is written by the victors.
  • #3,431
  • Sep 1, 2008 9:00pm Sep 1, 2008 9:00pm
Hi All

Went long off daily Eur/Jpy and Cad/Jpy on what looked to be strong support and both failed so not much joy using S/R to date!!!.

Entries Eur/Jpy 159.00 and Cad/Jpy 101.80.
Any idea,s anyone??

Thanks Gerard
  • #3,432
  • Sep 1, 2008 9:09pm Sep 1, 2008 9:09pm
Quoting Gerard212
Hi All

Went long off daily Eur/Jpy and Cad/Jpy on what looked to be strong support and both failed so not much joy using S/R to date!!!.

Entries Eur/Jpy 159.00 and Cad/Jpy 101.80.
Any idea,s anyone??

Thanks Gerard
Well I don't see anything appealing about either one whether short or long. Both seem to be consolidating before the next move - but who knows which direction the move will be.
History is written by the victors.
  • #3,433
  • Sep 2, 2008 2:12am Sep 2, 2008 2:12am
Quoting e-piphany
Looks promising, have you tried entering or exiting trades based on the identified areas of S/R?
Not all at yet, still a bit to do - going to add in fib levles, monthly high/low and other obvious potential s/r levles and tidy things up a bit (merge overlapping zones etc) ... then i'll have a look at the entries ... bear with me ... time at the keyboard is difficult to get at the moment!
  • #3,434
  • Sep 2, 2008 4:22am Sep 2, 2008 4:22am
is this a valid set up for no brainer trades?
any comments?

Dhalsim
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Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.
  • #3,435
  • Edited 5:15am Sep 2, 2008 5:14am | Edited 5:15am
Quoting dhalsim
is this a valid set up for no brainer trades?
any comments?

Dhalsim
Definitely should be good for a bounce of some description.... Watch for momentum on the way through.
  • #3,436
  • Sep 2, 2008 5:46am Sep 2, 2008 5:46am
The yen looks weakening against other majors

For my opinion this could happen due to resignations of Japanese PM .Fukuda which has contributed to the suffering loss in Japanese stocks and bond..


USDJPY currently trading above 108.40 -good support level
GBPJPY above 192.58-192.63 (mar16)

your comments are much appreciated
STRENGHT IS LIFE ,WEAKNESS IS DEATH - SWAMI VIVEKANANDA
  • #3,437
  • Sep 2, 2008 9:09am Sep 2, 2008 9:09am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Hey all

Just a question about gaps and how we should react to them...

Is it business as usual or should we not be looking to trade against the direction of the gap till it's filled?

Example today on GBP/USD theres a big gap and also an obvios Resistance level before it.

Maybe a better play here would be to wait for the resistance to break and then look to go long on the retest?

Cheers
If i get my butt outta bed early enough I trade the gaps. The only one I really look at is the USD/JPY gap as 90% of the time this gap closes.

I will normally trade with a stop loss just outside the the low or high of the first complete candle of the day (chart posted) and this SL is about 20 pips and depending on that risk I will then trade x amount of lots. For example monday just gone, once the first candle closed the low was 108.24. The gap that needed to be closed was about 41 pips. I work on a 1.5:1 ratio for Gaps so this worked perfectly. My limit was 30 pips which fell at 108.63 (entry was 108.33 as it was the open price of the new candle plus spread). Funny enough price hit 108.67 and I made my profit on my opening trade for the week.

Now not all gap trades are going to work, GBP/USD for example, but that is the element of trading. Some happen, some dont but I like the gap on the above pair as it does have more bias to closing than not.

Hope this helps... and isnt too confusing. If so let me know and Ill PM you with some more info
  • #3,438
  • Edited 7:29pm Sep 2, 2008 9:37am | Edited 7:29pm
Thanks Cruze apreciate your reply although my question was more about how to trade the S/R whilst there are still outstanding gaps.

Like for example the GU one right now... Is it still smart to sell the Rallies knowing theres a gap waiting to be filled?

Don't really know if I should worry about them (take them into account) or just pretend they're not there and trade as normal.
Time hides Nothing
  • #3,439
  • Sep 2, 2008 10:19am Sep 2, 2008 10:19am
It is true that a high incidence of gaps are filled and I believe they do present tradable opportunities. However, not all gaps have been filled, for example I think there was one on GBPUSD that never got filled last year. It may be the case that it will get filled at some point but such a large amount of time has passed that we can safely say it is no longer a significant influence upon price direction.

During the first 12 to 24 hours of the opening of a gap I would be much more inclined to trade in the direction of price returning to fill the gap and set my TP accordingly. I would not be so foolish to think that the trade was a definite banker though and still exercise caution in the positioning of stops. A wise trader once told me that being successful in forex was about making money even when you're wrong, so it would still be wise to bank a portion of profits and set stops to b/e when the opportunity was there.

After a full day had passed and the gap was still open I might re-assess the situation. As is the case, the gaps in the GBP pairs are in the opposite direction of a strong trend, and a significant time has passed yet the gaps are still a fair distance away so it's a little more risky now, plus unless we get a near term resistance turned support break and retest play, there is not going to be a good opportunity to get in using this method and keep the stops tight.
  • #3,440
  • Sep 2, 2008 1:04pm Sep 2, 2008 1:04pm
Quoting dhalsim
is this a valid set up for no brainer trades?
any comments?

Dhalsim
good call,have to be cautious though cos it is counter trend,about +72pips profit
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