Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading

forexwoman, I'm with you, you will get value from this thread if you go through all the whole thread. In as far as the scripts are concerned. my feeling is you do not need them as you can use a simple calculator to get the levels where you should buy or sell eurusd and usdchf. For example EURCHf closed at 161.53 on sunday, if Eurchf moves up 0.25% from that closing price you sell eurusd and usdchf, the rest is how you work the position, i.e add more psoitions or take profit

1.6090 -0.33% pace slowing
i enter long one lot

1.4651 and 1.0984

Please do note that this entry is only -0.28% for me because i took as reference friday close because was lower than sunday one.

We need to break 161 now for a quick profit because was a big support
161 quoted at the moment i post this c mon baby ya can do it..............

way to go spieler, looking forward to your fine tuning ideas. In fact I couldn't wait for the weekend to end

spieler, do you ussually use friday as a reference if friday close is lower than sunday's?

should we enter the next level. now @ -0.47

you take the lower close between friday and sunday as a reference for entry.

I entered at 160.90 so next entry will be 160.49 for me if pace not too quick.

160.70 now 161 is a resistance now and we could not broke it first try

thanks spieler I will keep that in mind

I slept through the 1st entry but got in at 1.6068.
Speiler - does it matter if there is a major holiday as far as the divergence rules?

Hi Spieler and all of you!

I'm following this thread since late july...and i spent some time reading all the posts during vacation too.... not sure i can grasp everything anyway (after some demoing in last days) I jumped in with live trade right now as soon i was back home from my job(13:40 italy time )

I opened a position 3 u/c and 2 e/u having the reference pair at 1.6069

it was -0.55% from friday close ( i havent got the sunday candles on my mt4) and from -0.58% up to -0.45% for the past 4 days closes.

So i felt pretty safe in jumping in


Edit 1 so i guess that if E/C goes to 16029 (40 pips lower corresponding to another -0.25% since my entry) i have to average position .. right? any confirmation from you more expert guys would be grateful thanx!

See you and thnx Spieler for sharing .

welcome corvogrigio, myself not in yet because of full-time employment, waiting until I get home, hoping the conditions will still be favorable then. From my few test of this system one has to check carefully how fast euchf moves. I alwasy err on the side of caution I might enter beyond 0.25% if it moves fast.. well this will depend on your account size, risk tolerance,..etc.
Just my 2 cents, still learning from spieler

Just voted 5 STARS for this thread. Spieler is 5 STAR general...our fearless leader.

Hi Spieler,

Thanks for sharing your hedging method. Much appreciated.

Ive been reading through the posts and taking in the MM etc and now wanted to test it on the worst possible environment, a big trend either down or up with very little retracement.

I found that a big downtrend starts on the 12.27.07 at a price that we havent returned to since on the EURCHF. Taking the open each day i have ran through manually on a 5min chart where lots would be added longs on the way down using your stated money management.

Within the first four days we have 4 series entries long in the market without a single pullback of +0.25% in order to exit with any profit.

27.12.07 - open is 6676 - Entry 1@6634
28.12.07 - open is 6661 - Entry 2@6619
31.12.07 - open is 6584 - Entry 3@6543
2.1.07 - open is 6546 - Entry 4@6463

MM rules stated in earlier posts...
Note: If first 4 entries in and no pullback then delay lot 5 until -1.0 not -0.50
Exit on -0.50 not -0.25and re-enter on -1.0 from previous exit)

As per your rules if no pullback then the 5th lot should only be entered after a drop of 1% on a single day. There isnt a drop of 1% in a single day until the 23rd Jan 2007 where u finally get a 5th entry as per the rules@ around 5982, before this the market doesnt drop far enough in a single day and after each day we reset the 1% entry to the new days open. Have i got this right?

I have a 5th entry that is over 481 pips lower than the 4th entry, also as we fall we are slowing losing margin as the hedge is not a perfect hedge, as we drop lower we lose $ margin in the P&L.

We have to wait about 15 days to put in the next lot long. If we were short we'd be clocking up the $$$ losses on swop. Looking back at the charts there are times you could get caught going short and have to hold for a fair amount of time, losing cash each day you have to hold overnight.

Therefore is it safest only to trade this method to the longside to avoid such moments?

Are there any additional rules for cutting trades when shorting as oppose to taking long positions (with longs you are at least feeding equity into your account on a daily basis with the swops).

Can you explain how you get yourself out of such a situation whereby you are caught in a big downtrend without a retracement?

I might have got mixed up on the process or something but for me it seems a real problem to get caught in such a move and the MM might not help smooth the situation over.

Once again, appreciate you putting your method out there and hope to learn alot from you.

Cheers,
Craig

Well I voted Five Stars too of course !

I am in at -0,498% around 1,6071 we have now a little retracement but not up to 1,6111 (0,25 pb)...

So we will have to wait...

So everybody take care and have good trades...

Thanks Spieler for sharing this system but something is not clear for me. If you open this position it is (almost) equivalent to be long on eur/chf . This is not my opinion it is a mathematic calculation. There is no “market neutral”. IN LONG PERIOD eur/chf can have a divergence very greater than 0,45% or 0,60% and if I want average I can average a lot of times not only 2 or 3 times. In 2007 eur/chf had a trend for 20%. I think it can be a good system but it is simply “go long on eur/chf and average”.

Hi FxSnipe thanx 4 ur welcome

Conditions appear to me still favoreable so i hope u can catch it.

A question...if I'm not wrong (as per Spieler words) this is an intraday system... and u go on only if ur position is a losing one averaging it if necessarry. So, as the end of day is not far here - lets say we have 3 hours more before the close at the moment-, if i'll be in profit (i am now with a tiny profit) or flat more or less , i 'll close the position.
Am I right?


Thanks in advance 4 ur opinion.


PS Anyone's opinion is welcome

just got in at -0.4%. I m not sure if spieler said or meant this to be an intraday system but it suits me fine as a non-intraday system. I can get in late or early and still make a profit. For example i can get in at -0.25% and sell at 0.25% and short there again instead of taking profit at the reference point

1400 Posts and the same question is asked over and over again....

So what would u do if u were in my shoes? I entered at 1.6069 (-0.55%) and as 0.25% is 40 pips u would wait until it reaches 1.6109? whenever it happens?

Ok, I am sorry, I have not read all 1400 posts. I have read the first post and it seem me that it is a simple question. Can you say me where is the answer?