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  • #3,401
  • Aug 29, 2008 6:13pm Aug 29, 2008 6:13pm
Here is my analysis of the CHF for the coming week based on the daily chart.

The first thing to notice is that price has been range bound for 2 weeks. It appears we are at a critical stage. If price breaks north then we should go to the green area and if it breaks south then we should head to the pink area. Just looking at the wave pattern it appears that we would go down to the pink area (50% retrace) before we bounce off that price level and head toward the green area 1.14830 - 1.1585.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chf analysis t20.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #3,402
  • Aug 30, 2008 12:17pm Aug 30, 2008 12:17pm
Quoting pmurfin
Hi All

Anyway I will post it here soon, when I have ironed out final bugs but if anybody is interested in playing with it and giving me some SOLID feedback that would be great. Please mail me if you are interested.

Best
Paul
Don't seem to be able to send you a PM. Count me in, please.
David
  • #3,403
  • Aug 30, 2008 1:10pm Aug 30, 2008 1:10pm
I'd very much like to see the UJ analysis...based on H4 and D1 TF....

anyone??

sonic
  • #3,404
  • Edited 4:08pm Aug 30, 2008 3:39pm | Edited 4:08pm
Quoting pmurfin
Anyway I will post it here soon, when I have ironed out final bugs but if anybody is interested in playing with it and giving me some SOLID feedback that would be great. Please mail me if you are interested.
Hi Paul

Sounds good, I'd be very interested to try out your indicator and give you feedback as requested.

Thanks for the offer.

Best wishes, Loudoniii
  • #3,405
  • Aug 31, 2008 12:14am Aug 31, 2008 12:14am
Hello all,

I´ll appreciate your comments on the following:

I identified a few S&R levels on EURUSD. The black lines are what I consider most relevant, they´re based on the 1d chart and dated back to NOV. 2007; the blue lines are based on 4h and 1h charts. I added the dots manually on the second chart to show you how I applied the criteria (because some bars go beyond the levels at some of those points, as you can see on the first chart).

Another reason I´m posting is because I got confused about how many levels do I really need... maybe less than 40 pips between levels is too much?

As for the trades, I'll go short if the price goes down to 1.4660. Otherwise I'll wait for the price to hit 1.4697. If it goes over 1.4705 I'll buy, and if it comes back down to 1.4690 I'll sell.

best regards.

rafa.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd A 2008.08.30.gif Size: 164 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd B 2008.08.30.gif Size: 162 KB
  • #3,406
  • Edited 3:05pm Aug 31, 2008 1:03am | Edited 3:05pm
Quoting metalorn
Hello all,

I´ll appreciate your comments on the following:

I identified a few S&R levels on EURUSD. The black lines are what I consider most relevant, they´re based on the 1d chart and dated back to NOV. 2007; the blue lines are based on 4h and 1h charts. I added the dots manually on the second chart to show you how I applied the criteria (because some bars go beyond the levels at some of those points, as you can see on the first chart).

Another reason I´m posting is because I got confused about how many levels do I really need... maybe less than 40 pips between levels is too much?

As for the trades, I'll go short if the price goes down to 1.4660. Otherwise I'll wait for the price to hit 1.4697. If it goes over 1.4705 I'll buy, and if it comes back down to 1.4690 I'll sell.

best regards.

rafa.
If you're using a daily chart to plot the lines I typically draw 1 or 2 lines above and below the current price action. Again, keep in mind if one of the lines is 700 pips away I wouldn't clutter up my chart with that line until price gets closer to the level.
  • #3,407
  • Aug 31, 2008 6:21pm Aug 31, 2008 6:21pm
I have been following this thread for some time now, and I would now like to add my two cents worth.

I know from the first posting by BillRayValentine that we must adhere to canons and tenets on this thread.

No disrespect, but I am of the opinion that there is no monopoly on knowledge; I was instructed by another thread to keep my opinions to myself; so I left. I did not want the responsibility of starting a new thread.

I was astonished at the number of misplaced allegiances and intolerant opinions of those devoted to upholding the popular conformist wisdom of ForEx chasing. We should all want to do what it takes to make pips.

If you would like, I will share that which I have found to be successful for me, and let you work out the details in your own time. I do not use MT4.

While you may not agree with all that I say, I will not debate issues. Do what works for you.

My findings:

ˇ I don’t place a lot of faith in (or use) support, resistance, or Fibs.
ˇ For my style, I have found my best time to trade is 0330 to 1100 CDST (Chicago time).
ˇ I watch synchronized 2-minute, 5-minute and 8-minute candlestick charts. I use a 120-minute chart for the trend direction; I use a 1-minute chart as a trigger. To exit, (most often) I use the BBW and a 10-minute chart.
ˇ There are two major happenings that appear dozens of times every trading day: momentum entries and swing entries. The balance of the time - things are dead flat.
ˇ Only two of the indicators on my charts are original. All of the other indicators are those of many learned people and their years of hard work. I simply assembled the most applicable of their works in one area; I ignore the remaining 250+ indicators.
ˇ Use a broker that respects you and does not treat you like a dupe or an ATM machine.
ˇ Timing isn’t everything – it’s the ONLY thing.
ˇ Always have an active order to exit your trade BOTH above and below your entry point (unless you use trailing stops).
ˇ The market giveth and the market taketh away. You don’t own your profit until you are OUT of your position.
ˇ My typical trade lasts less than 2 hours; the best are less than 30 minutes for 20 to 40 pips. I dislike long-term trades because I don’t like risk and draw downs; I have to be in control at all times. Unless your position is profitable within the first few bars – time works as your mortal enemy; question and re-evaluate your trade.
ˇ Do not adjust your stop loss order to prevent your getting stopped out. There is a point where a potential trade is no longer valid – and that point MUST BE where you place your stop loss order.
ˇ The ONLY non-lagging indicator is price, itself; love it.
ˇ I am out of all positions by Friday afternoon.

Happy pips.
/s/ bfs
Attached Images
memores acti prudentes futuri.
  • #3,408
  • Aug 31, 2008 6:44pm Aug 31, 2008 6:44pm
Quoting bfs
I have been following this thread for some time now, and I would now like to add my two cents worth.

I know from the first posting by BillRayValentine that we must adhere to canons and tenets on this thread.

No disrespect, but I am of the opinion that there is no monopoly on knowledge; I was instructed by another thread to keep my opinions to myself; so I left. I did not want the responsibility of starting a new thread.

I was astonished at the number of misplaced allegiances and intolerant opinions of those devoted to upholding the popular conformist wisdom of ForEx chasing. We should all want to do what it takes to make pips.

If you would like, I will share that which I have found to be successful for me, and let you work out the details in your own time. I do not use MT4.

While you may not agree with all that I say, I will not debate issues. Do what works for you.

My findings:

ˇ I don’t place a lot of faith in (or use) support, resistance, or Fibs.
ˇ For my style, I have found my best time to trade is 0330 to 1100 CDST (Chicago time).
ˇ I watch synchronized 2-minute, 5-minute and 8-minute candlestick charts. I use a 120-minute chart for the trend direction; I use a 1-minute chart as a trigger. To exit, (most often) I use the BBW and a 10-minute chart.
ˇ There are two major happenings that appear dozens of times every trading day: momentum entries and swing entries. The balance of the time - things are dead flat.
ˇ Only two of the indicators on my charts are original. All of the other indicators are those of many learned people and their years of hard work. I simply assembled the most applicable of their works in one area; I ignore the remaining 250+ indicators.
ˇ Use a broker that respects you and does not treat you like a dupe or an ATM machine.
ˇ Timing isn’t everything – it’s the ONLY thing.
ˇ Always have an active order to exit your trade BOTH above and below your entry point (unless you use trailing stops).
ˇ The market giveth and the market taketh away. You don’t own your profit until you are OUT of your position.
ˇ My typical trade lasts less than 2 hours; the best are less than 30 minutes for 20 to 40 pips. I dislike long-term trades because I don’t like risk and draw downs; I have to be in control at all times. Unless your position is profitable within the first few bars – time works as your mortal enemy; question and re-evaluate your trade.
ˇ Do not adjust your stop loss order to prevent your getting stopped out. There is a point where a potential trade is no longer valid – and that point MUST BE where you place your stop loss order.
ˇ The ONLY non-lagging indicator is price, itself; love it.
ˇ I am out of all positions by Friday afternoon.

Happy pips.
/s/ bfs
if you don't use s/r levels, then why bother to follow this thread ?
  • #3,409
  • Aug 31, 2008 7:58pm Aug 31, 2008 7:58pm
U/Chf is approaching 1.1040 again - a very nice resistance area that has provided big $ profits for shorts all through the month of August.
Keep your eye on this one and be careful in this crazy market tonight.
History is written by the victors.
  • #3,410
  • Aug 31, 2008 8:10pm Aug 31, 2008 8:10pm
You see.... here with bfs we have a situation that works for this trader.

Personally I cannot trade during this trader's time frame. But that is perfectly fine for both of us. Both of us make profits.

Some of the statements made, don't work for the way I trade. I use daily bars. I put on a trade at the opening of a new daily bar. Sometimes I close it or adjust it the next a.m. and sometimes I let it ride for a full day.

Bfs mentions that it is not good if a trade goes against him right away. But to the contrary, I have found, as have others who trade the same way as I, that when we put on a trade, if it goes against us at first, we have come out better... later. It is just one of those curious price actions that we have noticed. Whereas bfs would not like to see that happen. Ok. So What !

I do agree with c-note's statements in so far as to why the post was made here .... with a blatant statement about "no fibs, no s/r, no etc.." .

Bfs, why say that here on the Support/Resistance thread?

I believe, bfs, that your method is good for you. I applaud your success.

Comparatively speaking, you are trading the 'apples' method and folks here are trading the 'oranges' method. Both are good !

So c-note has a point.

Bfs, it is great to hear that your method works. Thanks for sharing. Maybe you will have some folks here connect with you because they are attracted to your method. But your rhetoric came off as bashing what is done on this thread. There are successful traders here too. They use S/R . So....What exactly are you trying to accomplish?
  • #3,411
  • Aug 31, 2008 8:55pm Aug 31, 2008 8:55pm
Hello,

I just added 1.4615 to my list of s/r levels on eurusd.

cheers!

rafa.
  • #3,412
  • Aug 31, 2008 9:29pm Aug 31, 2008 9:29pm
Quoting metalorn
Hello,

I just added 1.4615 to my list of s/r levels on eurusd.

cheers!

rafa.
What is it that caused you to make this choice?
  • #3,413
  • Aug 31, 2008 11:10pm Aug 31, 2008 11:10pm
Quoting Lou
What is it that caused you to make this choice?
On the hour chart that level has acted as support before. Fore mine that level doesn't look hugely significant though...... Unless I'm missing something? Maybe good for a quick bounce though?
  • #3,414
  • Aug 31, 2008 11:28pm Aug 31, 2008 11:28pm
it was used as support on aug. 26th at 13:00 gmt and today at 1:00 am. Also, a very close price, 1.4617 was tested as support 3 times in a row on aug 26 at 16:00, 17:00 and 18:00.
Quoting Lou
What is it that caused you to make this choice?
  • #3,415
  • Sep 1, 2008 2:19am Sep 1, 2008 2:19am
I like the bottom of the cup around 1.0997ish on the USDCHF chart at the moment. Looking for a bounce off that level because of the combination of cup bottom and psychological level.......

I am new to this cup thing though! Thought I'd give it a dabble. comments welcome.
  • #3,416
  • Sep 1, 2008 2:29am Sep 1, 2008 2:29am
Watch out for the news release though......
  • #3,417
  • Sep 1, 2008 2:53am Sep 1, 2008 2:53am
Here's the chart, I still haven't entered because the move down has been too strong despite poor CHF news. Still looking for an entry point at one of those resistance levels in purple colour, perhaps the 1.0983 that is combined with the 0.764 fib????

Please ignore the indicators!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf-bucket.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #3,418
  • Sep 1, 2008 3:06am Sep 1, 2008 3:06am
Apologies, this is turning into a trade diary, but perhaps BRV could analyse this trade and use it as an example of what and what not to do!

Rightly or wrongly (only time will tell), I have entered the market at 1.0982 because of a perceived slowing of the market at this point which makes sense considering the confluence of indications that this could be a potential intraday level.

I have set a stop at 1.0959, below the final of the recent support levels, on a odd number, below the 1.060 extremely minor psych level!

Potential TP's are

1.1012
1.1020

Or more, depending on momentum as those levels are reached. (There are a couple more obvious ones after that too)

Lets see how it goes!!!
  • #3,419
  • Sep 1, 2008 5:17am Sep 1, 2008 5:17am
Quoting pmurfin
Hi All
I have been following this thread with great interest end enlightenment! I have written more metatrader indicators than I care to think about but all previously have been based on technicals (moving averages etc) ... I have always thought the lag of those was to much to bear and that pure price action is the way to go so I thought I would try and put my little brain to work to develop an "indicator" based on the pure price action philosophy discussed here. I have very nearly completed it. It works like this:
1) It looks for fractals of n size, i.e. when you get a high with n previous lower highs and n following lower highs (same with lows) - in other words previous potential S/R points. It does this in three timeframes 15,60 and 240 minutes. I call these ' S/R seeds' (potential points of S/R). The 240 points are weighted more than the 1 hour points which are weighted more than the 15 min points.
2) It then looks at the recent range (can be entered) and then includes all the double zeros in that range as 'S/R seeds'. I have weighted these the same as a 1 hour seeds for now.
So at this point I have a bunch of fractal S/R points and a bunch of double 00 S/R points. Of course these only represent potential S/R points by themselves so I look for clusters of these points .. so for example where we have a 15min fractal close to a 1 hour fractal and close to a double 0. This is a CLUSTER and reprsents an area of S/R. Now there is a bit of mathematical manipulation (using the weights etc) but I end up with S/R zones or bands that occur where there is a bunch of S/R seeds close together. I then have these Clusters with some details about them 1) The max price in the cluster 2) The Min price in the cluster (so I also have a cluster width) and also the distances up/down to the next cluster.
There is still a bug or two to iron out but it is looking VERY pretty at the moment! The really nice thing is it provides an entry zone (between the max/min of the cluster) ... which may (or may not help!) to get an entry for those who are missing them by a pip or two! Also a useful indication of where to put a stop loss (on the other side of the cluster).
Anyway I will post it here soon, when I have ironed out final bugs but if anybody is interested in playing with it and giving me some SOLID feedback that would be great. Please mail me if you are interested.

Any if you followed all that without a picture you are doing well (the picture will follow shortly)

Best
Paul
I'd be keen to see your indicator Paul, looking forward to the post.
  • #3,420
  • Sep 1, 2008 5:18am Sep 1, 2008 5:18am
Looks like I'm goneberger on that one! Oh well, back on the horse, I may have to do more research on cup/bucket formations to see if I can nail one....
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