Attachments: james16 Chart Thread

james16 Chart Thread

#13,241
Aug 30, 2008 3:34pm Aug 30, 2008 3:34pm

Ryanmcd
Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Screw Long Term 5min For Life! | 1,259 Posts

Quoting DutchTrader

Disliked

So if you have 30 winners in a row, doesn't it all depend on account size, leverage, m/m, movement in that 5 minute time period, etc?

For instance Gbp/Usd moved 1,500 pips last week. If you had a weekly strategy and captured 900 of those that seems to me less time intensive than the 5 minute strategy.

Ignored

Yes and I think that is why a lot of people miss the boat. I have a spread sheet that I can put in "units" and trade with Oanda so it's the same 2% risk if I my goal is 10 pips or 100 pips. So lets do the math

#1

$800,000 account size, with a 2% risk with 1 position and a 10 pip gain / loss would be

Risk
$16,000
eur/usd = 16,000,000 units
Price per pip =$1,600

#2

$800,000 account size, with 2% risk with 2 positions and a 50 pip gain / loss would be

Risk
$16,000
eur/usd = 1,600,000
Price per pip = $320.00

So as you see 2% is 2% if it's a 1000 pip stop or a 5 pip stop I have the same risk on every trade. So now how does a trade that takes longer to happen and make more pips make me more money trading this way?

Keep taking CT trades, I need more money

#13,242
Aug 30, 2008 3:44pm Aug 30, 2008 3:44pm

jarroo
Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts

Quoting Ryanmcd

Disliked

If you trade the same risk % per trade don't see how a trade that lasts a few days can make more then a trade that lasts a few min. Just wanted to see if anyone else can do the 5min stuff or less but it seems most are stuck on the 4hr / daily / weekly stuff and that's fine too as long as you can lock in some profits who cares. Also PA is PA if you can read a 4hr it's the same as a 5min or a 1min chart just happens faster but I would not say it has a higher winning rate as long as you don't take dumb trades and use a few time frames to line it up.

Ignored

I think the premise of your question is flawed. PA on higher time frames can have the consistency of a hard metal, where the PA on the 1min/5min time frames can have the consistency of soup.

Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.

#13,243
Aug 30, 2008 3:48pm Aug 30, 2008 3:48pm

aSandman
| Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Trader | 165 Posts

Just wanted to say hello to everyone and say thanks for the great thread. Slowly working my way threw it, am at page 188 so far. I have studied trading for about 8 years but am new to forex.

What impressed me most about this thread is the realistic attitude of a 90 percent failure rate. To take this as a business or expect to fail and if you cant do it on demo for 3 months odds are good you will fail with real money. As one who has spent some time in the fetal position before.... Thank you James!

Jason

May the fish in your stream of life always bite.

#13,244
Aug 30, 2008 3:59pm Aug 30, 2008 3:59pm

fxprocessor
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2006 | 1,085 Posts

Worst slippage I ever experienced around news announcements was over 40 pips.

$1,600 a pip x 40 = > $64k....ouch!

Quoting Ryanmcd

Disliked

Yes and I think that is why a lot of people miss the boat. I have a spread sheet that I can put in "units" and trade with Oanda so it's the same 2% risk if I my goal is 10 pips or 100 pips. So lets do the math

#1

$800,000 account size, with a 2% risk with 1 position and a 10 pip gain / loss would be

Risk
$16,000
eur/usd = 16,000,000 units
Price per pip =$1,600

#2

$800,000 account size, with 2% risk with 2 positions and a 50 pip gain / loss would be

Risk
$16,000
eur/usd = 1,600,000
Price per pip = $320.00

So as you see 2% is 2% if it's a 1000 pip stop or a 5 pip stop I have the same risk on every trade. So now how does a trade that takes longer to happen and make more pips make me more money trading this way?

Ignored

#13,245
Aug 31, 2008 1:54am Aug 31, 2008 1:54am

ghous
Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts

Quoting fxprocessor

Disliked

Worst slippage I ever experienced around news announcements was over 40 pips.

$1,600 a pip x 40 = > $64k....ouch!

Ignored

damn that should have hurt...

I believe . . .

#13,246
Aug 31, 2008 2:24am Aug 31, 2008 2:24am

tdion
Joined Nov 2005 | Status: EURUSD Quant FREAK | 3,197 Posts

Key word is "can"

Quoting jarroo

Disliked

I think the premise of your question is flawed. PA on higher time frames can have the consistency of a hard metal, where the PA on the 1min/5min time frames can have the consistency of soup.

Ignored

#13,247
Aug 31, 2008 3:59am Aug 31, 2008 3:59am

jarroo
Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts

Quoting tdion

Disliked

Key word is "can"

Ignored

The "can" applies more often on higher time frames and less frequent on smaller time frames.

Yes, I chose my words carefully.

Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.

#13,248
Aug 31, 2008 9:00am Aug 31, 2008 9:00am

Ryanmcd
Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Screw Long Term 5min For Life! | 1,259 Posts

Quoting fxprocessor

Disliked

Worst slippage I ever experienced around news announcements was over 40 pips.

$1,600 a pip x 40 = > $64k....ouch!

Ignored

True and I try to keep away from news, but most trades are about 15-20min so my risk is low as far as time in the market. I got hammered in sept 2001 and traded longer times back then so it can happen both ways.

Keep taking CT trades, I need more money

#13,249
Aug 31, 2008 9:03am Aug 31, 2008 9:03am

Ryanmcd
Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Screw Long Term 5min For Life! | 1,259 Posts

Quoting jarroo

Disliked

The "can" applies more often on higher time frames and less frequent on smaller time frames.

Yes, I chose my words carefully.

Ignored

I bet if someone did some backtesting you would find them about the same on the 4hr / daily win rate about the same as the 5min charts. A big IF is if the person doing the trading knows how to read a chart. All I see the 4hr / daily doing is giving you a bigger stop and less trades. Don't get me wrong I still do trade the 4hr sometimes but I do this for a living and if the 4hr is slow I hit the 5min or if I want to trade more I goto the 3/5min stuff, I like all the time frames just know that if you learn a good indicator that shows divergence like RSI or MACD and line up a 1min and 5min chart you have 85%+ winning rate. Also I use BB so when I do take the trade it's at a extreme most of the times. Just like playing cards you want a rich deck.

Keep taking CT trades, I need more money

#13,250
Aug 31, 2008 10:25am Aug 31, 2008 10:25am

mamutot
| Joined Mar 2007 | Status: i'm milking money from the market | 253 Posts

well i would rather risk 4% on higher time frames just because i can move my stops by counting bars, or by developing a s/r areas, than risking 2% on 5 min bars, just psychologicly speaking..

think of it, losing the same amount of money much quicker doesnt make you feel bad? it does for me.. at least i know i gave it a real shot..40-50 pips os good and even great for a super PA, but not under 1h..

you can risk less with a smaller tf, otherwise its just hurting yourself, mentally and moneylly..

lets makes some percents, and also some cents

#13,251
Edited 11:47am Aug 31, 2008 11:29am | Edited 11:47am

toyboy tramp
| Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Sniper | 1,001 Posts

As its the end of the month I thought I'd post the monthlies that I'm watching,

Attached Images

Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient

#13,252
Aug 31, 2008 1:16pm Aug 31, 2008 1:16pm

Ryanmcd
Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Screw Long Term 5min For Life! | 1,259 Posts

Quoting mamutot

Disliked

well i would rather risk 4% on higher time frames just because i can move my stops by counting bars, or by developing a s/r areas, than risking 2% on 5 min bars, just psychologicly speaking..

think of it, losing the same amount of money much quicker doesnt make you feel bad? it does for me.. at least i know i gave it a real shot..40-50 pips os good and even great for a super PA, but not under 1h..

you can risk less with a smaller tf, otherwise its just hurting yourself, mentally and moneylly..

lets makes some percents, and also some cents

Ignored

That is true if you are new, I have been doing this 11 years and full-time right at 5 years. Again I think most people are new and not doing this fulltime and like the 4hr because they can "Work" why they learn the market. Time to go back to avid trader.

Keep taking CT trades, I need more money

#13,253
Aug 31, 2008 1:19pm Aug 31, 2008 1:19pm

aSandman
| Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Trader | 165 Posts

I have found its not so much that PA is harder on a 5 min time frame if there is sufficient volatility. The problem for me lies in the execution. If your profit target is say 10 pips from a break out and you give up 3 pips on entry and 3 on exit. Then if the break is really fast price might have moved your 10 pips even before you get filled. In the above example you just gave up 60% profit in the spread. If your Risk vs Reward was 1 to 1 then you lost 60 pecent in the spread. If you made the same trade on a daily with 180 pip target and risk reward 1 to 1 then your 6 pips you gave up in the spread would only equal 3.3 pecent of the move vs 60 pecent on the 5 min chart. So you can see that the spread will play a huge part in success over long term trading campaign. Additionaly you have to be very attentive and alert in front of your screen trading 5 min charts. It would stand to reason you would make more exuction mistakes ... entering late etc over 1000 trades than you would on the dialys. Just what I have found anyway.

May the fish in your stream of life always bite.

#13,254
Aug 31, 2008 1:43pm Aug 31, 2008 1:43pm

mamutot
| Joined Mar 2007 | Status: i'm milking money from the market | 253 Posts

Quoting Ryanmcd

Disliked

That is true if you are new, I have been doing this 11 years and full-time right at 5 years. Again I think most people are new and not doing this fulltime and like the 4hr because they can "Work" why they learn the market. Time to go back to avid trader.

Ignored

well what can i say, maybe in 9 years...

maybe not.

i made this week 10% of my account.
if there is anyone thinking its low % , i hope for him/her they dont think that 30% per week is low.

cause who knows, maybe you just cant get enough.

if i wanted to have a 150% per month i might have had to trade 5 min. but looking for the long run, 10% is awesome for me, that means that in a year from now i will make a great monthly income from trading just the 4h and daily and weekly..

maybe then i will just trade the weekly bars... heheh

#13,255
Aug 31, 2008 3:50pm Aug 31, 2008 3:50pm

Ryanmcd
Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Screw Long Term 5min For Life! | 1,259 Posts

Quoting aSandman

Disliked

I have found its not so much that PA is harder on a 5 min time frame if there is sufficient volatility. The problem for me lies in the execution. If your profit target is say 10 pips from a break out and you give up 3 pips on entry and 3 on exit. Then if the break is really fast price might have moved your 10 pips even before you get filled. In the above example you just gave up 60% profit in the spread. If your Risk vs Reward was 1 to 1 then you lost 60 pecent in the spread. If you made the same trade on a daily with 180 pip target and risk reward 1 to 1 then your 6 pips you gave up in the spread would only equal 3.3 pecent of the move vs 60 pecent on the 5 min chart. So you can see that the spread will play a huge part in success over long term trading campaign. Additionaly you have to be very attentive and alert in front of your screen trading 5 min charts. It would stand to reason you would make more exuction mistakes ... entering late etc over 1000 trades than you would on the dialys. Just what I have found anyway.

Ignored

If you spread on the eur/usd is 3 pips you need a new broker. I used Oanda and DBFX, DBFX I have 0 spread on all pairs I pay a comission on it instead using a broker account. On Oanda I have a .9 spread just like everyone else. Also you are right, you need to have *0* emotion and just hit the button and let it do it's thing, I have been down 2-3 trades on the day and make it up being +10 as my goal. The think I like best about it is 2% gain is my goal per day and I get that 90%+ of the time per week, so 10% a week and most days my 1st trade is all I take and it happens in 1-3 hours sometime I have been done in 15min then I go out and do whatever. The problem I have with the 4hr is I am not home a lot of the time, so with the 5min once I get my +10 pips my day is done, I goto the lake and enjoy the rest of the day.

Keep taking CT trades, I need more money

#13,256
Aug 31, 2008 3:59pm Aug 31, 2008 3:59pm

SeekingLight
Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Charts + PA > * | 3,251 Posts

There wasn't really any great setup here(only a bit cloggy sideway 4h BUOB and an even messier IB), but I felt it was a good example of a "place to look for action at".
There was horizontal s/r that was to be retested after moving above it at 1.0450. We got back there after moving above THE long term TL.
There was both a prior rising TL underside(although long invalid) and a more irrelevant "middle of something or other" TL that could both be construed as reasons for capping us around 1.073 originally, but there are quite simply also daily highs in that kind of area when we look further to the left(June/July 2007) on the chart.

This shows well how you can "create" reasons for why price was deflected at 1.0730(at least 2 trendlines, I'm sure one can "find" many more), but regardless of the upside cap, to me there was really only ONE important TL and s/r area here, and that was the really long term TL and the 1.0450 s/r area for retesting.

We didn't get anything nice like I had hoped for and the first attempt of getting back up got beaten back down at the usual spots, but we did hold it and eventually moved back off.
IMHO this pair still has some higher targets to hit yet and the move above the TL pretty much eliminates a clear cut bearishness.

More than getting a perfect setup, I feel it's important to get to know those "right spots" to look for PA in the first place. It sometimes feels to me like people chase every single bar that forms on their chart for a setup, but really imho there are only a handful of really crucial, interesting areas that will come around and present an area of interest, with the potential to kick off the next swing.
To me, personally, finding and figuring out these swingpoints is the most interesting thing I can find. PA at areas of interest is where it's at imho.

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)