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The simple stupid system

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  • Post #621
  • Quote
  • Aug 29, 2008 6:55am Aug 29, 2008 6:55am
  •  PistolDave
  • | Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 634 Posts
Quoting FrostCall
Disliked
Sure, an Expert Advisor can do many things. MT4 basically allows a great amount of customization in the form of mini programs. These take the form of Indicators, Scripts and Expert Advisors. The EA can be programed to do a lot of things, ranging from giving you a signal that says 'BUY NOW!!' to automatically placing trades for you. EA's are useful for people who know exactly how they want their system to work and want to take the Human error out of the equation. However, EA's do exactly what they are programed to do. Because of this, they will often miss a buy or sell that you may have made for reasons that it's not programmed to anticipate. Example: You see a huge downward trend in the market for the hourly, weekly and monthly chart of a currency pair. The 15 minute chart is trending up. You're watching the news and see that some bad report just came out and your sure the trend will go back down so you sell (or go short). The EA you are using might only be looking at the 15min chart so it thinks that the market is trending up when in reality, it's going down.

This is why we all say to tweak your EA's and know when a good time to use them is. Any given EA may be better suited to a paticular currency pair, or to a Bull or Bear market. If you are not currently in a condition that the EA thrives in, you have a good chance of loosing money.

In short, the EA is a tool. The best 'Expert Advisor' out there is YOU (given that you have put the time and effort into learning the market and it's ways). No EA will make you a millionare. You should not go live with an EA until you have tested it and tweaked it and understood it's interworkings for a long time. (Did I give enough disclaimers?)
Ignored
Thanks Frost,

Great warning and explanation for everyone to read... especially newbies.

(And aren't we all noobs to some extent?)

This EA and this trading strategy is a very good one, I believe. But if it is designed to duplicate the manual trading strategy then I also doubt it will prove to be profitable -- if -- all you do is turn it on and let it trade for you without using any discretion. However, if you have enough judgement and experience to know when to stay out of choppy, ranging market conditions then it could be a very useful tool.

I'll admit, many times I can't tell what will be a ranging day or trending until it's late in the game.

I'm not trying to criticize or be discouraging, I'm just saying that I have been using the manual strategy since the beginning and have had some very profitable days when there are good smooth swings in one direction for several hours duration. And some days where they were very choppy, like yesterday that would have shot several days profit if you just kept getting in and out, in and out, blindly, like an EA would do.

Again, not to sound negative, but what do we do to find a way to avoid the whipsaws but enjoy the sustained moves that are obviously where the profit is from this method?

Just wanted to post my concerns and see if anyone else had any thoughts on that idea either.

Thanks
 
 
  • Post #622
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  • Aug 29, 2008 10:22am Aug 29, 2008 10:22am
  •  krufx
  • | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Member | 149 Posts
Quoting PistolDave
Disliked
Thanks Frost,

Great warning and explanation for everyone to read... especially newbies.

(And aren't we all noobs to some extent?)

This EA and this trading strategy is a very good one, I believe. But if it is designed to duplicate the manual trading strategy then I also doubt it will prove to be profitable -- if -- all you do is turn it on and let it trade for you without using any discretion. However, if you have enough judgement and experience to know when to stay out of choppy, ranging market conditions then it could be a very useful tool.

I'll admit, many times I can't tell what will be a ranging day or trending until it's late in the game.

I'm not trying to criticize or be discouraging, I'm just saying that I have been using the manual strategy since the beginning and have had some very profitable days when there are good smooth swings in one direction for several hours duration. And some days where they were very choppy, like yesterday that would have shot several days profit if you just kept getting in and out, in and out, blindly, like an EA would do.

Again, not to sound negative, but what do we do to find a way to avoid the whipsaws but enjoy the sustained moves that are obviously where the profit is from this method?

Just wanted to post my concerns and see if anyone else had any thoughts on that idea either.

Thanks
Ignored
Yeah i do agree with your post, an EA will do your emotional trading for
you and thats why they r good to have but.......and a biggggg buttt...
you still have to oversee it especially in its infancy imho
 
 
  • Post #623
  • Quote
  • Aug 29, 2008 4:20pm Aug 29, 2008 4:20pm
  •  seamonkey
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Member | 107 Posts
Does the first post have the most current and up-to-date rules for trading this system?
 
 
  • Post #624
  • Quote
  • Aug 29, 2008 4:50pm Aug 29, 2008 4:50pm
  •  GermanTrader
  • | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Member | 14 Posts
Quoting Wahnone
Disliked
Thanks. I am not concerned about the entry, only the exits give me a concern. You know, in a ranging market, you are bound to fall into a lot of whipsaws, and this system is at its most vulnerable at that time. I wouldn't like letting a winning trade change over and turn to a losing one all in the name of waiting for an exit signal. More suggestions pls...
Ignored
I suggest to use a stoch crossover as exit because ema seems to be too slow. I did some paper trades that way and it worked fine ...
 
 
  • Post #625
  • Quote
  • Aug 31, 2008 11:40am Aug 31, 2008 11:40am
  •  Heino
  • | Commercial Member | Joined May 2007 | 199 Posts
My Test looks like it is a Trending strategy but I dont have solutions for the case when the market is in range, I would then trade a range strategie but I dont have a range strategy, if some one have a range strategie and knows about this strategie enough and want to work with me togehter than I can build a EA Programm for us, the EAīs that I see here dont work correct like I see.
 
 
  • Post #626
  • Quote
  • Aug 31, 2008 1:29pm Aug 31, 2008 1:29pm
  •  profi4554
  • | Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Member | 151 Posts
Hi Heino,

To detect range/sideways market, u can employ envelope on your TF15 chart. I use Envelopes (32, Exponential, Close, Deviation 0.05). I also attach EMA32 (Close) to make it sit in the middle of the envelopes.

If candles/bar are within the envelopes, it is a ranging market.

Hope it could help u out.

~Profi~
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: GU.JPG
Size: 58 KB
~ Let the TRADES come to you - be a TRAPPER not a HUNTER ~
 
 
  • Post #627
  • Quote
  • Aug 31, 2008 1:58pm Aug 31, 2008 1:58pm
  •  ataviano
  • | Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Member | 33 Posts
hi,
i first of all say a big thanks to Wahnone & Zen and every other one that has posted some positive for this thread. i think we need to add another indicator to avoid whipsaw & fine tune our exit. Stoch 21-9-9 will be of great help. I personaly use it to exit my trades and it is working just fine. I also avoid to trade when a setup comes up but it is against the Stoch direction (just wait 1 candle or 2 for the stoch to cross), or the two Stoch lines are "romancing" without any clear direction. But if you happen to take the trade against the Stoch, just lock in 15-20 pips and tight your stoploss. If everybody agrees with it after testing i think Zen can add to the EA so that we compare the results. So basicaly what i mean is this.

BUY:
setup Ok and Stoch_main>Stoch_signal
SELL:
Setup Ok and Stoch_main<Stoch_signal
EXIT Buy:
Stoch cross down
EXIT Sell:
Stoch cross up

Thanks & may the pips be with you

"Success is not an event, it is a process"
 
 
  • Post #628
  • Quote
  • Aug 31, 2008 2:18pm Aug 31, 2008 2:18pm
  •  Heino
  • | Commercial Member | Joined May 2007 | 199 Posts
Quoting profi4554
Disliked
Hi Heino,

To detect range/sideways market, u can employ envelope on your TF15 chart. I use Envelopes (32, Exponential, Close, Deviation 0.05). I also attach EMA32 (Close) to make it sit in the middle of the envelopes.

If candles/bar are within the envelopes, it is a ranging market.

Hope it could help u out.

~Profi~
Ignored
Hello Profi,

that looks usefull I will test it and tell you then the results.

regards
Heino
 
 
  • Post #629
  • Quote
  • Aug 31, 2008 5:51pm Aug 31, 2008 5:51pm
  •  Heino
  • | Commercial Member | Joined May 2007 | 199 Posts
Hi Hi,

my test with the envelopes where not so good because I need some better ruels when I can aktivate the trading of it, when I can say now itīs a range market.

Because of that I am searching know for a indikator or some indikator that can say me know it ist range market and know it is trend market, then if I have find a good solution with indikators to can say this two zenarios, then I would aktivate one strategy for range market and in trend market I would aktivate the simpel system strategie.

I have build a test EA and give you here all for download, it is a test Version but I think it makes it work. There are some settings in the EA but I think and hope everybody knows what they means, you can aktivate also just one Indikator or more.

Know I hope I can find here some people or just one with that I can make this EA a bit profitabel, so that it dont loose much money in ranging market and some good settings for trend market of course.

Regards
Heino
Attached File
File Type: zip SimpelSystemV1.zip   16 KB | 360 downloads
 
 
  • Post #630
  • Quote
  • Aug 31, 2008 10:29pm Aug 31, 2008 10:29pm
  •  femzy112
  • | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: FX Till I Dieeeee | 438 Posts
Heino would check it l8r in the day...

Thanks
 
 
  • Post #631
  • Quote
  • Sep 1, 2008 2:10am Sep 1, 2008 2:10am
  •  GKGold2008
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Member | 7 Posts
Hi to all,

I have been reading and testing this post for a week now.

I think i have a ranging market solution its indicator caled TOR. You can get it here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=33342)

This indicator keept me from making trades in last two days of previous trading week. You should try it.


Have a nice day all.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: pic1.JPG
Size: 107 KB
 
 
  • Post #632
  • Quote
  • Sep 1, 2008 4:09am Sep 1, 2008 4:09am
  •  krufx
  • | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Member | 149 Posts
Quoting Heino
Disliked
Hi Hi,

my test with the envelopes where not so good because I need some better ruels when I can aktivate the trading of it, when I can say now itīs a range market.

Because of that I am searching know for a indikator or some indikator that can say me know it ist range market and know it is trend market, then if I have find a good solution with indikators to can say this two zenarios, then I would aktivate one strategy for range market and in trend market I would aktivate the simpel system strategie.

I have build a test EA and give you here all for download, it is a test Version but I think it makes it work. There are some settings in the EA but I think and hope everybody knows what they means, you can aktivate also just one Indikator or more.

Know I hope I can find here some people or just one with that I can make this EA a bit profitabel, so that it dont loose much money in ranging market and some good settings for trend market of course.

Regards
Heino
Ignored
Thanks Heino.....will put it to test and let u know back
 
 
  • Post #633
  • Quote
  • Sep 1, 2008 6:39am Sep 1, 2008 6:39am
  •  Heino
  • | Commercial Member | Joined May 2007 | 199 Posts
Hello, thank you people, now you give me some new stoff to learn, I hope I can undestand it well, I will look at the TOR indicator. Then I want to put two startegies in the EA for trend and ranging market and then we can look how the results are.
 
 
  • Post #634
  • Quote
  • Sep 1, 2008 8:16am Sep 1, 2008 8:16am
  •  sfg7th
  • | Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Member | 171 Posts
Hi Wahnone.....does your system work well on other time frames or just 15 min charts??/
 
 
  • Post #635
  • Quote
  • Sep 1, 2008 8:23am Sep 1, 2008 8:23am
  •  PistolDave
  • | Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 634 Posts
Quoting GKGold2008
Disliked
Hi to all,

I have been reading and testing this post for a week now.

I think i have a ranging market solution its indicator caled TOR. You can get it here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=33342)

This indicator keept me from making trades in last two days of previous trading week. You should try it.


Have a nice day all.
Ignored
How does it indicate when the market is trending or ranging?
 
 
  • Post #636
  • Quote
  • Sep 1, 2008 8:42am Sep 1, 2008 8:42am
  •  GKGold2008
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Member | 7 Posts
Quoting PistolDave
Disliked
How does it indicate when the market is trending or ranging?
Ignored

I have added a picture of current market as you can se its ranging in most of the timeframes. This movement is calculated as ADX more about that you can read in link provided in my previous post. As i start trading in euro market ... today is ... well ranging market, unles you are a scalper we must wait for better chances.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: pic2.jpg
Size: 112 KB
 
 
  • Post #637
  • Quote
  • Sep 1, 2008 9:06am Sep 1, 2008 9:06am
  •  PistolDave
  • | Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 634 Posts
Quoting GKGold2008
Disliked
I have added a picture of current market as you can se its ranging in most of the timeframes. This movement is calculated as ADX more about that you can read in link provided in my previous post. As i start trading in euro market ... today is ... well ranging market, unles you are a scalper we must wait for better chances.
Ignored
Thanks for posting the pic and explaining it, Gold.

I had this indicator but I had never used it much, but I see it could be valuable. I think I will use it more.

PD
 
 
  • Post #638
  • Quote
  • Sep 1, 2008 9:22am Sep 1, 2008 9:22am
  •  Wahnone
  • | Joined Apr 2008 | Status: If you harken unto the voice of GOD | 253 Posts
Quoting profi4554
Disliked
Hi Heino,

To detect range/sideways market, u can employ envelope on your TF15 chart. I use Envelopes (32, Exponential, Close, Deviation 0.05). I also attach EMA32 (Close) to make it sit in the middle of the envelopes.

If candles/bar are within the envelopes, it is a ranging market.

Hope it could help u out.

~Profi~
Ignored
Thanks for your contribution.
 
 
  • Post #639
  • Quote
  • Sep 1, 2008 9:26am Sep 1, 2008 9:26am
  •  Wahnone
  • | Joined Apr 2008 | Status: If you harken unto the voice of GOD | 253 Posts
Quoting ataviano
Disliked
hi,
i first of all say a big thanks to Wahnone & Zen and every other one that has posted some positive for this thread. i think we need to add another indicator to avoid whipsaw & fine tune our exit. Stoch 21-9-9 will be of great help. I personaly use it to exit my trades and it is working just fine. I also avoid to trade when a setup comes up but it is against the Stoch direction (just wait 1 candle or 2 for the stoch to cross), or the two Stoch lines are "romancing" without any clear direction. But if you happen to take the trade against the Stoch, just lock in 15-20 pips and tight your stoploss. If everybody agrees with it after testing i think Zen can add to the EA so that we compare the results. So basicaly what i mean is this.

BUY:
setup Ok and Stoch_main>Stoch_signal
SELL:
Setup Ok and Stoch_main<Stoch_signal
EXIT Buy:
Stoch cross down
EXIT Sell:
Stoch cross up

Thanks & may the pips be with you

"Success is not an event, it is a process"
Ignored
Thanks a lot for this contribution. Checking it out.
 
 
  • Post #640
  • Quote
  • Sep 1, 2008 9:31am Sep 1, 2008 9:31am
  •  Wahnone
  • | Joined Apr 2008 | Status: If you harken unto the voice of GOD | 253 Posts
Quoting GKGold2008
Disliked
Hi to all,

I have been reading and testing this post for a week now.

I think i have a ranging market solution its indicator caled TOR. You can get it here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=33342)

This indicator keept me from making trades in last two days of previous trading week. You should try it.


Have a nice day all.
Ignored
I think this helps a lot. Does it work on the principle that if the adx line is below 20, then it is a range? Or how exactly does it determine if it is trending or ranging? Just curious...
 
 
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