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  • #2,481
  • Aug 26, 2008 10:10am Aug 26, 2008 10:10am
Quoting belekas
Alright, understood mate. As i was reading thru your thread i noticed that you prefer wait for the pullback after the tl break and only then enter the trade, correct?
Well, I did before. Fortunately, I have a bit different criteria now which gives me the confidence to enter on a break. But entering on pull-backs is one low-risk method, no doubt.

I'm eager to launch a new thread with a much better describing on how to draw TL and how to benefit from trends. This thread as a bit out of context compared with the start of it. I don't draw lines according to post #1 any more. But I guess everyone is aware of that

I've been posting charts, almost from the start of this thread, with LH/LL etc. to define trends. This have been a easy way to measure a trend for me. When I read Brian Marber's book regarding TA, the "last" puzzle felt in when I saw he did pretty much the same, only that he also draw TL from these points, and have been doing so for 50+ years! When the new thread is launched, I'll give a full explanation on how to draw them. It's quite easy and logical.

Not only that, but during my little research, I also found out that different type of candlesticks (more known as price-action here on FF) seemed to increase the probability for price-patterns. I hit my head hard when I realized this was nothing new, of course, I just hadn't studied candlesticks good enough in the first place.

From this I learned;

Its not about inventing the wheel all over again. Most "methods" have been invented, its more about to fit any particular method to you, one that fits you(re personality) and along with that the discipline/confidence to follow it, which takes A LOT of practice and time.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #2,482
  • Aug 26, 2008 11:46pm Aug 26, 2008 11:46pm
looking forward to your new thread...

R

Quoting aediaz1
...
I'm eager to launch a new thread with a much better describing on how to draw TL and how to benefit from trends. ...
  • #2,483
  • Aug 27, 2008 7:24am Aug 27, 2008 7:24am
Those of you keeping up with this thread, might have noticed a post of mine regarding divergence on cable.

This divergence is being played out as we speak. It's a Monthly divergence so it could take some time to be completed.

Minimum target around ~1.70 area.

Cheers to all,

JP.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp_usd_mn_27_08_2008_channel_down_divergence.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #2,484
  • Aug 27, 2008 8:48am Aug 27, 2008 8:48am
Quoting Rocroy
looking forward to your new thread...

R
Good to see you're still around !

Quoting jupiter_peak
Those of you keeping up with this thread, might have noticed a post of mine regarding divergence on cable.

This divergence is being played out as we speak. It's a Monthly divergence so it could take some time to be completed.

Minimum target around ~1.70 area.

Cheers to all,

JP.
Yes absolutely, and also weekly HS pattern which got posted some weeks ago;
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdweekly.jpg Size: 107 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #2,485
  • Aug 27, 2008 8:54am Aug 27, 2008 8:54am
Hey aediaz1,

It's good to see you, I just wanted to ask you if you have read any good books regarding different chart patterns, I'd appreciate it.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #2,486
  • Aug 27, 2008 9:29am Aug 27, 2008 9:29am
Quoting karmostaji
Hey aediaz1,

It's good to see you, I just wanted to ask you if you have read any good books regarding different chart patterns, I'd appreciate it.
Hi Karmo, good to see you too.

There is at least 3 books I would recommend for a start;

  1. Marber on markets by Brian Marber. Absolutely some of the books I rank highest (regarding TA). He break down 50 + years of market experience and how he managed to spot major reversals in different markets (FX included). This book might be difficult to read since the stuff here is miles away from what we see in common (TA books) but when the logic of he's style is applied it's really worth the money (expensive book compared to others, but I understand why)
  2. Trading for a living by Alexander Wilder. Might not be the most detailed description of (all) patterns but he describes some of the most common ones along with how the human crowd behaviour form some of those particular pattern which is important to understand and spot patterns.
  3. Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns by T.Bulkowsky. Every pattern is explained very detalied in he's book. You'll find most patterns available on he's homepage too, which I've used a lot over here

Hope this help.

Measure twice, cut once
  • #2,487
  • Aug 27, 2008 2:13pm Aug 27, 2008 2:13pm
I have spotted a divergence on USDCHF monthly targeting ~1.3290 area.

I believe I have no doubts on that now.

My doubt rests on the fact that USDCHF runs "opposite" to EU. By that I mean that usually one price is strengthening while the other is weakening and vice-versa.

That been said, I also see no divergence as of now on EU.

What can we interpret from this? Will the divergence on swissy be carried out? Will it only be carried out if we observe a correction on EU too?

May I ask for your thoughts about it?

Best,
JP.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd_chf_mn_27_08_2008_channel_down_divergence.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #2,488
  • Aug 27, 2008 5:42pm Aug 27, 2008 5:42pm
eu drive swissy... not vice'versa..

if u want see more try eur-chf pair.
  • #2,489
  • Aug 27, 2008 6:48pm Aug 27, 2008 6:48pm
i spotted 2 patterns... one on uj and the other one on eu..

but i'm not so sure if those are reversal or continuations patterns..


http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/926...diamonduu8.gif

this is the eu chart.. and it's more or less that in the past 6 weeks only the last we had dealed with range market.. the other 5 ware bear..

are they run out the gazoline..or it's just a consolidation perriod.

http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/151...diamondtl2.gif

and the uj chart.

both are unregulated.. more or less informative

h4-timeframe
enjoy.
  • #2,490
  • Aug 27, 2008 9:09pm Aug 27, 2008 9:09pm
Quoting eye4spot
eu drive swissy... not vice'versa..

if u want see more try eur-chf pair.

Did you care to read my question? Maybe I wasn't very clear.

I never said one drives the other or not... I said they go opposite to each other...

Perhaps you did not read my question and surely did not even try to approach a possible reasoning or an anwser on the subject. If you post anything, try at least to elaborate on the right subject.

Lets see if we can use up this space wisely to provide learning to everyone and not jump into answers/conclusions that are radical or even precipitated.

I would add that if you don't have a clue about the subject, please stay away from it or at least do some research so that at least you can post an "educated" answer.

Therefore, if you have anything to say regarding the divergence and how both pairs could play this one out, please post it here. Other than that, it looks to me just like many other participants @ FF that try to sound wise and "educated".

Cheers and happy trading to all.
  • #2,491
  • Aug 27, 2008 9:23pm Aug 27, 2008 9:23pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
Did you care to read my question? Maybe I wasn't very clear.

I never said one drives the other or not... I said they go opposite to each other...

Perhaps you did not read my question and surely did not even try to approach a possible reasoning or an anwser on the subject. If you post anything, try at least to elaborate on the right subject.

Lets see if we can use up this space wisely to provide learning to everyone and not jump into answers/conclusions that are radical or even precipitated.

I would add that if you don't have a clue about the subject, please stay away from it or at least do some research so that at least you can post an "educated" answer.

Therefore, if you have anything to say regarding the divergence and how both pairs could play this one out, please post it here. Other than that, it looks to me just like many other participants @ FF that try to sound wise and "educated".

Cheers and happy trading to all.
This is the kind of answer we all should be looking for:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1440

Reserach...

Best,
JP.
  • #2,492
  • Aug 28, 2008 4:51am Aug 28, 2008 4:51am
Quoting jupiter_peak
I have spotted a divergence on USDCHF monthly targeting ~1.3290 area.

I believe I have no doubts on that now.

My doubt rests on the fact that USDCHF runs "opposite" to EU. By that I mean that usually one price is strengthening while the other is weakening and vice-versa.

That been said, I also see no divergence as of now on EU.

What can we interpret from this? Will the divergence on swissy be carried out? Will it only be carried out if we observe a correction on EU too?

May I ask for your thoughts about it?

Best,
JP.
I love that we have a proper way of using divergence now Before I didn't even know that it was possible to calculate potential targets from it.

If might be another month before we have any crossover on the MACD.Till then it seems like we have some downside to reach.

Head and shoulder pattern with NL drawn from closing-price along with divergence on 4h;
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf4h.jpg Size: 125 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #2,493
  • Aug 28, 2008 5:55am Aug 28, 2008 5:55am
Quoting jupiter_peak
Did you care to read my question? Maybe I wasn't very clear.

I never said one drives the other or not... I said they go opposite to each other...

Perhaps you did not read my question and surely did not even try to approach a possible reasoning or an anwser on the subject. If you post anything, try at least to elaborate on the right subject.

Lets see if we can use up this space wisely to provide learning to everyone and not jump into answers/conclusions that are radical or even precipitated.

I would add that if you don't have a clue about the subject, please stay away from it or at least do some research so that at least you can post an "educated" answer.

Therefore, if you have anything to say regarding the divergence and how both pairs could play this one out, please post it here. Other than that, it looks to me just like many other participants @ FF that try to sound wise and "educated".

Cheers and happy trading to all.

I didn't want to be acid with my answer or try to sound wise. If i disturbed u in any way u got my appologise.

When i am telling u that usd-chf it's a drived by eur-usd i'm not wrong and i don't try in any way to say or prove that ur wrong with that divergence.

i will give u an example.

If u remeber the 1.49 level on the eur-usd that start from late november and ends on late of february.. first touch on that level occurs with this graph on usd-chf.

http://img82.imageshack.us/img82/742...ergencejj9.gif

if u spot the christmas candle u will understand what i was saying.

once again i am sorry for the opinion that u find it uneducated.
  • #2,494
  • Aug 28, 2008 6:23am Aug 28, 2008 6:23am
Quoting aediaz1
I have seen people draw trend-lines from about anywhere on a chart from different threads here @ FF.

So, allow me to put one strategy that might improve some of your drawings.

An uptrend is when demand exceed supply, and bearish visa versa.

So, how can we spot this events on our charts ?

A strong support (demand-line) is when you have 2 bars to the left (bear-bars) and 2 bars to the right (bull-bars) and resistance the other way around. Look for this to occur for the second time and apply a line between this 2 points you have. Candlestick pattern like hammer / invert hammer would help the creditability of your lines too.

Also correlate with different timeframes, don't get glued with only one timeframe !



Let me show with some charts starting from post #2;

____________________________________________________________________

Step 2. Often when you draw lines you will start to see different patterns occur. This knowledge could tell you what to expect when your lines looks like flag, ascending triangles and pennants in example.

Here I have 2 free pages with educational content that could give/add another edge to your charts;

http://www.tradingpricepatterns.com/

http://thepatternsite.com/
This page is made by T. Bulkowski, a well-known master in different price-patterns.
____________________________________________________________________

Adding this template if silver feels pleasant to your eyes. After x amount of hours infront of my screen, silver is a color I can tolerate without any disturbance.

Adding this great TL alerter, shared by our Rocroy from this thread. Thanks Rocroy.
THANKS!!
  • #2,495
  • Aug 28, 2008 8:14am Aug 28, 2008 8:14am
Quoting eye4spot
I didn't want to be acid with my answer or try to sound wise. If i disturbed u in any way u got my appologise.

When i am telling u that usd-chf it's a drived by eur-usd i'm not wrong and i don't try in any way to say or prove that ur wrong with that divergence.

i will give u an example.

If u remeber the 1.49 level on the eur-usd that start from late november and ends on late of february.. first touch on that level occurs with this graph on usd-chf.

http://img82.imageshack.us/img82/742...ergencejj9.gif

if u spot the christmas candle u will understand what i was saying.

once again i am sorry for the opinion that u find it uneducated.
I didn't say you were uneducated.

By saying that I don't mean you don't have a family education os that you are unpolite. This is none of my business and it would be very inapropriate posting something like this here @ FF. So my apologies if it sounded like it.

What I mean by "education" is that one should search for TECHNICAL education. So before one should make a guess, try to make an "EDUCATED" guess after doing some research on the subject.

So all I want is to have this space clean from all that afirmative, cocky BS that we see all over FF. This might be one of the last spots here where you can have "educated" discussions with people doing actual research.

So I ask to please refrain from posting short-sentenced answers without adressing the subject properly and/or even care to read the question in its full.

Cheers,
JP.
  • #2,496
  • Aug 28, 2008 8:35pm Aug 28, 2008 8:35pm
trendlines are bullshit.
I could draw any line around the price range and show how price went up/down 100/200/300 pips when it was broken.

prove me wrong.
  • #2,497
  • Aug 29, 2008 12:42am Aug 29, 2008 12:42am
Hey, nice start newbie!

From leary: "Although I am a complete newbie in FX trading, I am extremely interested in your work over, say, Technical Analysis."

Grow up, mate.

Quoting dkoleary
trendlines are bullshit.
I could draw any line around the price range and show how price went up/down 100/200/300 pips when it was broken.

prove me wrong.
  • #2,498
  • Edited 9:05am Aug 29, 2008 8:22am | Edited 9:05am
Hello.

Was away for a few days and missed some nice pips. As i was checking Swissey today a noticed a possible diamond formation on 4hr chart. Price already broke out of the ascending 4hr channel. 1hr possible downtrend channel formed with previous support now possible resistance @ 0.985 Also on 4hr we are still inside another not so bullish channel right now and price howering above dp and wp. As Jupiter Peak posted we have bullish macd divergence on the montly with target @ 1.3295 Not taking any positions right now and just watching crefully. eurusd might have a diamond on 4hr as well. Lets wait and see if the trend reverses. As Swissey and Fiber going in opposite directions seems that these diamonds might reverse the trend or bring a nice retracement.

p.s. seems 4hr ascending channel still holding.

Safe trading and many pips to all
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swissey_h4_diamond_290808.jpg Size: 87 KB
  • #2,499
  • Aug 30, 2008 2:57am Aug 30, 2008 2:57am
Quoting dkoleary
trendlines are bullshit.
I could draw any line around the price range and show how price went up/down 100/200/300 pips when it was broken.

prove me wrong.
then stop complaining you must be already rich!!??
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #2,500
  • Aug 31, 2008 6:58am Aug 31, 2008 6:58am
Quoting aediaz1
I have seen people draw trend-lines from about anywhere on a chart from different threads here @ FF.

So, allow me to put one strategy that might improve some of your drawings.

An uptrend is when demand exceed supply, and bearish visa versa.

So, how can we spot this events on our charts ?

A strong support (demand-line) is when you have 2 bars to the left (bear-bars) and 2 bars to the right (bull-bars) and resistance the other way around. Look for this to occur for the second time and apply a line between this 2 points you have. Candlestick pattern like hammer / invert hammer would help the creditability of your lines too.

Also correlate with different timeframes, don't get glued with only one timeframe !



Let me show with some charts starting from post #2;

____________________________________________________________________

Step 2. Often when you draw lines you will start to see different patterns occur. This knowledge could tell you what to expect when your lines looks like flag, ascending triangles and pennants in example.

Here I have 2 free pages with educational content that could give/add another edge to your charts;

http://www.tradingpricepatterns.com/

http://thepatternsite.com/
This page is made by T. Bulkowski, a well-known master in different price-patterns.
____________________________________________________________________

Adding this template if silver feels pleasant to your eyes. After x amount of hours infront of my screen, silver is a color I can tolerate without any disturbance.

Adding this great TL alerter, shared by our Rocroy from this thread. Thanks Rocroy.
HELLO, i'm just begginning on this thread so most can ignore me. i would like to know why on post#3 you drew the trendline there and not b4. i will post where i think it goes! okay.

Thanks anyone!
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