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Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

  • #181
  • Aug 28, 2008 9:44am Aug 28, 2008 9:44am
GBPCHF energy point in the next few hours, plus some tough support below at 1.9916 from April.
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  • #182
  • Aug 28, 2008 10:41am Aug 28, 2008 10:41am
Quoting auxesis
One source for my earlier comments taken from The Doctoral Dissertation by Greg Fisher, on Pitchforks and the Grain markets, pg.18

http://www.marketgeometry.com/Fisher.pdf

additional link ensign software

http://www.ensignsoftware.com/tips/tradingtips86.htm

I do have to admit that the designation between the two is blurred...

I know that auxesis already saw the following post, but to set the record straight in this thread, here's a response from Greg Fisher posted on Timothy Morge's forum. In that thread where I asked what are the canonical (official) definitions for a Schiff vs. Modified Schiff, Greg agrees with my earlier post:


(from http://www.marketgeometry.com/showth...=2006#post2006 )
Quoting gfish
I have heard from a few of Dr. Andrews students (including Tim) that he strongly disliked the name "pitchfork" that his creation came to be known. When I learned of this, I have always referred to his works as Median Line sets rather than "pitchforks".
In my research paper, I can see that the section labeled Schiff Median Line clearly shows a modified Schiff ML under that heading - surely misleading. Since then, I have learned the more proper definition, and have chosen to refer to them as historically correct. I haven't seen hardly anyone use the original Schiff ML, so that is probably why the modified Schiff designation took the same definition.
I don't care what everyone else calls them. I will call them as they were originally intended.
Median Line sets - NOT pitchforks.
Schiff ML - 50% up or down from A.
Modified Schiff ML (Mod Schiff) - 50% up or down from A, and 50% over from A to B.
Suppose it all depends on your personal preference and suppose in the whole scheme of things it doesn't really matter. I tend to sway toward the side of truth and original intent and not the misinformation that tends to distort the truth and original intent over time.

So I think I'm going to stick with Greg's view about what is a "Schiff" vs. a "Mod Schiff", even though -- unfortunately -- a lot of other software packages that draw the variations have them labelled backwards (Schiff for MS and vice-versa). I'm still going to call them Pitchforks though... with apologies to the original inventors.

The bottom line for the "official" (original) definitions:

Schiff = 50% of Price-only between Pt 1 and Pt2, same Time as Pt 1.
Mod Schiff = 50% Price and 50% Time (the midpoint) between Pt 1 and 2.

Pips4life
  • #183
  • Aug 28, 2008 11:10am Aug 28, 2008 11:10am
I don't know about everyone else, but my forks are not being respected (EJ, UJ, EU) and I cant find a fork for GU...if anyone else can. I wonder if I am doing something wrong or if price is just real jumpy.

here is a fork of uj on a 2hr. The orange and light blue forks have not been holding up...whats the deal?
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  • #184
  • Edited 12:51pm Aug 28, 2008 12:49pm | Edited 12:51pm
This chart can be the same setup like Tim Morge?
Let see
Regards
Catalin
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  • #185
  • Aug 28, 2008 1:30pm Aug 28, 2008 1:30pm
From my last post on euro i was stopet at +17 pips
Now on euro we have divergence and confluence of median line and price can bounce the trend line up.
Let se how it works.
Any comments ?
Regards
Catalin
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #186
  • Aug 29, 2008 8:54am Aug 29, 2008 8:54am
The problem big_pipin, maybe in that forex is always overshooting.

The basic fork is simple to draw, take any three pivots and you can draw one. Most packages have it. For a fork to be useful, price has to respect it, but price doesn't have to.

I think Tim is the person who betters explain the use of forks, although not the only one. Yet so I find incredible that in his work shown at w w w . m e d i a n l i n e . c o m, at least one of each two examples has something else. It can be sliding parallels, it can be schiff forks (modified ones for the pures), it can be hagopian everywhere, it can be anything. I took the time to pack them together in a file to not having to press on each chart to study them carefully (and to be able to print faster, by the way).

I don't see simple forks without any help can give you the 70 to 85 % accuracy that Tim is proud of. Yet so, I still think that % can be achieved (if not what am I trying to do?). So, just in case it serves you, I have some rules for drawing forks, and I can put a chart of USDCAD-H1 (just because there is no recent CAD forks chart here, I can put any other one).

For drawing forks (some obvious things omitted, you already know forks):
-The first pivot has to be an important local high or local low
-The second pivot will be the maximum or minimum of the swing starting at the first pivot. Multiple tops and bottoms are ok for this pivot.
-The third pivot will be the end of the reaction move after the second pivot. Many times this will be between 61.8% and 78.6% retracement, an area known as Brach area.
-Forks (edited) drawn over previous support or resistance are more probable to be meaningfull
-Always draw a downward fork after you see weakness (if you haven't drawn it before). The reverse for upward forks.
-Always draw a schiff fork after a sharp move is over, always always always draw a schiff fork after a sharp move is over, and has been fully or almost fully retraced.

In the CAD chart, rectangular boxes are price failures, ellipses are entries. Sliding parallels are always drawn in the color of the fork, and schiff are drawn with their inserting first pivot shown with a trendline (useful on MT4 for drawing). Not everything is drawn, this are my marks, I'm not a professional, yet.
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  • #187
  • Aug 29, 2008 9:49am Aug 29, 2008 9:49am
Quoting justcatalin
This chart can be the same setup like Tim Morge?
Let see
Regards
Catalin
justcatalin,

nice setup and chart.

From Dr. Andrews and others like Mikula, when price fails to make the center median, the following wave should be larger than the preceding one, simply price should break the point of C or 3rd point of the medianline set.

Good trade!

a
  • #188
  • Aug 29, 2008 2:43pm Aug 29, 2008 2:43pm
Quoting paco246y8
The problem big_pipin, maybe in that forex is always overshooting.

The basic fork is simple to draw, take any three pivots and you can draw one. Most packages have it. For a fork to be useful, price has to respect it, but price doesn't have to.

I think Tim is the person who betters explain the use of forks, although not the only one. Yet so I find incredible that in his work shown at w w w . m e d i a n l i n e . c o m, at least one of each two examples has something else. It can be sliding parallels, it can be schiff forks (modified ones for the pures), it can be hagopian everywhere, it can be anything. I took the time to pack them together in a file to not having to press on each chart to study them carefully (and to be able to print faster, by the way).

I don't see simple forks without any help can give you the 70 to 85 % accuracy that Tim is proud of. Yet so, I still think that % can be achieved (if not what am I trying to do?). So, just in case it serves you, I have some rules for drawing forks, and I can put a chart of USDCAD-H1 (just because there is no recent CAD forks chart here, I can put any other one).

For drawing forks (some obvious things omitted, you already know forks):
-The first pivot has to be an important local high or local low
-The second pivot will be the maximum or minimum of the swing starting at the first pivot. Multiple tops and bottoms are ok for this pivot.
-The third pivot will be the end of the reaction move after the second pivot. Many times this will be between 61.8% and 78.6% retracement, an area known as Brach area.
-Forks (edited) drawn over previous support or resistance are more probable to be meaningfull
-Always draw a downward fork after you see weakness (if you haven't drawn it before). The reverse for upward forks.
-Always draw a schiff fork after a sharp move is over, always always always draw a schiff fork after a sharp move is over, and has been fully or almost fully retraced.

In the CAD chart, rectangular boxes are price failures, ellipses are entries. Sliding parallels are always drawn in the color of the fork, and schiff are drawn with their inserting first pivot shown with a trendline (useful on MT4 for drawing). Not everything is drawn, this are my marks, I'm not a professional, yet.
Very nice explication auxesis
I hope evryone understand how Median Line(Fork, Pitchfork, Andrews Pitchfork) works.
  • #189
  • Aug 30, 2008 8:28am Aug 30, 2008 8:28am
Euro is setting up nicely and has been playing within the frame work of a descending channel and it’s resulting median line sets, and you can see how it ended the month at a confluence of lines.

Two things to take notice on the current PA, price had formed a continuing H&S ( the inner fork set uses the right shoulder) price has bounced off the modified Schiff and consolidated between that and the neckline.

I can see next weeks action unfolding in 1of 2 ways to start. The H&S and inner fork take prominence and we see the target of the H&S putting us at the bottom of last months larger channel around 1.4485/4520 area.

Or

The Blue North’s lower median line holds, failing the H&S. In this event it would be seen imo Very Bullish. Breaking the Purple South’s upper median line ( the trigger line of the inner fork) would be a good trigger for a Long position.

From Justcatlin’s earlier chart, when price fails to make the median look for the 3rd point of the fork to be an initial target, that would put us back at the top of the larger channel. Jmo again on the larger view, price turning here inside the large channel would signal a longer bias north, possibly the retrace correction of the overall Euro sell off. Here we would want to leave some for the .382 or possible .5 targets 1.51 to1.53 areas.

Price making the bottom of the channel will set up another set of possibilities, but we can wait to see if that unfolds.

Fwiw,
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  • #190
  • Aug 31, 2008 9:52am Aug 31, 2008 9:52am
keep in mind guys this dollar rally is real and euro is still over valued. i would remain dollar bullish for some time.
  • #191
  • Aug 31, 2008 12:33pm Aug 31, 2008 12:33pm
Quoting auxesis

the .382 or possible .5 targets 1.51 to1.53 areas.

Price making the bottom of the channel will set up another set of possibilities, but we can wait to see if that unfolds.

Fwiw,
I totally agree with you.. I've done some image editing for this coming week and it took some time for me because im no expert in editing images. So, sorry if my chart includes MAs and stuffs.
The main idea is that Euro went all the way down without retracing back to ML.. Fibonacci could also be used as the profit target for my next week trade plan.
price action and the system i am using should do the entry point.

Good luck my 2 cents
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  • #192
  • Aug 31, 2008 3:09pm Aug 31, 2008 3:09pm
Quoting tropical_g
keep in mind guys this dollar rally is real and euro is still over valued. i would remain dollar bullish for some time.
Yep, price can shoot south blow out the bottom of the channel and head for Antarctica. The Euro Bull has had it's horns chopped off as of late.

But I'd be willing to buy Euro for the short haul under those circumstances at the moment, that may change as price may paint a different picture going into this week.

regards
  • #193
  • Aug 31, 2008 4:11pm Aug 31, 2008 4:11pm
Euro usd daily some posibility of median line setup
Can go down to touch the MLH or fail and go at UP MLH?
What do you think guys ?
The most big problem at median line is no one draw the same and this make me to think witch one is right
Regards
Catalin
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #194
  • Edited 9:11pm Aug 31, 2008 8:42pm | Edited 9:11pm
Hi Catalin

Here's my set.

Potential for reversal circa 4612-14 IMO

arco
  • #195
  • Edited Sep 1, 2008 12:59am Aug 31, 2008 11:35pm | Edited Sep 1, 2008 12:59am
Is there a problem with the image upload?
  • #196
  • Aug 31, 2008 11:48pm Aug 31, 2008 11:48pm
Hello arco
When add chart click on Manage Attachments...browse your pictures then click upload.
Regards
Catalin
  • #197
  • Sep 1, 2008 1:16am Sep 1, 2008 1:16am
Hi Catalin

I'm thinking it may be that I need to post 'x' amount of posts before I'm allowed to upload files.....cant think of anyother reason. Theres always another way...

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v5.../0831081hr.gif
  • #198
  • Sep 1, 2008 1:16pm Sep 1, 2008 1:16pm
Has it ever been suggested in any writings to draw warning lines (sliding pitchfork) off a schiff (modified schiff) fork?
  • #199
  • Edited 2:04pm Sep 1, 2008 1:50pm | Edited 2:04pm
Quoting southernmind
Has it ever been suggested in any writings to draw warning lines (sliding pitchfork) off a schiff (modified schiff) fork?
Southernmind,

warning lines are equal half measures of the channel (medianline set) that are extended out, and yes they can be drawn as well as sliding parallels if price follows the modified schiff or any apo set.

you will find the BC relationship through out price action within the fork,and like channels, one median line set(fork) or channel usually gives birth to the next from within.
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  • #200
  • Sep 2, 2008 11:36am Sep 2, 2008 11:36am
Quoting justcatalin
Euro usd daily some posibility of median line setup
Can go down to touch the MLH or fail and go at UP MLH?
What do you think guys ?
The most big problem at median line is no one draw the same and this make me to think witch one is right
Regards
Catalin
i have to admit yours is better.. i think it is bouncing off your LML.
Hope we'll make more pips later on
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