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  • #3,341
  • Aug 27, 2008 7:35am Aug 27, 2008 7:35am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Hey Chaps

Been noticing lately that my orders keep getting missed by a pip or two and then price goes on it's merry way in my direction without me!

Is this a common occurance and thus I should place my orders a few pips before the point or should I find a better charting platform?

Great example on the EUR today order at 1.4743 price hit 1.4742 and reversed.

Cheers
Okay, anybody raise your hand who hasn't had this happen. Anyone?........Anyone? ..................... just as I suspected. Oh how I wish I could nail every trade to the pip with no drawdown. But Cindy, I think you already know the answer to this one. Yes, there is a few pips difference from broker to broker and if you are worried that your broker is manipulating price you can always keep them honest by comparing their quotes to this site. www.xe.com which is a currency site that updates every thirty seconds. Doesn't hurt to keep it over in the corner somewhere and check it from time to time. But as far as where to place an order, why not give it a few pips either way. As I have said in the past and as BRV as demonstrated as well (while there are lines that can react on the money) there are truly areas of support and resistance in the larger scheme of things. With those smaller exact bounces occuring more in the realm of scalping. So if you find you are missing out on good trades by a pip or two then I have good news and bad news. The good news is you are properly analyzing the markets as to direction and you haven't margined out your account. The bad news is you are not reaping the rewards of your labor. While a failure in the former is fundamental in nature and requires much to fix, the latter is an exercise in fine tuning. Depending on your goals per trade, consider this, divide your lots by two. Say if you normally put a trade on at 10 mini lots then make it 5 and say you identify the EurUsd as a sell at 1.4733 Be willing to put on five lots at 1.4728 and 5 more at 1.4738-40 if price pushes a bit higher. That way you make something on half if it misses your level by a "few pips" but you can "scale in" if price pushes higher (which actually reduces your overall risk in the trade.) I hope that helps
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #3,342
  • Aug 27, 2008 7:55am Aug 27, 2008 7:55am
Quoting Iron-man
Okay, anybody raise your hand who hasn't had this happen. Anyone?........Anyone? ..................... just as I suspected. Oh how I wish I could nail every trade to the pip with no drawdown. But Cindy, I think you already know the answer to this one. Yes, there is a few pips difference from broker to broker and if you are worried that your broker is manipulating price you can always keep them honest by comparing their quotes to this site. www.xe.com which is a currency site that updates every thirty seconds. Doesn't hurt to keep it over in the corner somewhere and check it from time to time. But as far as where to place an order, why not give it a few pips either way. As I have said in the past and as BRV as demonstrated as well (while there are lines that can react on the money) there are truly areas of support and resistance in the larger scheme of things. With those smaller exact bounces occuring more in the realm of scalping. So if you find you are missing out on good trades by a pip or two then I have good news and bad news. The good news is you are properly analyzing the markets as to direction and you haven't margined out your account. The bad news is you are not reaping the rewards of your labor. While a failure in the former is fundamental in nature and requires much to fix, the latter is an exercise in fine tuning. Depending on your goals per trade, consider this, divide your lots by two. Say if you normally put a trade on at 10 mini lots then make it 5 and say you identify the EurUsd as a sell at 1.4733 Be willing to put on five lots at 1.4728 and 5 more at 1.4738-40 if price pushes a bit higher. That way you make something on half if it misses your level by a "few pips" but you can "scale in" if price pushes higher (which actually reduces your overall risk in the trade.) I hope that helps
Ok thanks Ironman I guess in a perfect world all our orders would be hit to the pip whilst our brokers were giving us foot rubs! Your answer clarifies the fact that theres nothing wrong with my charts pricing and that I simply need to adjust my strategy. Thank you
Time hides Nothing
  • #3,343
  • Aug 27, 2008 8:02am Aug 27, 2008 8:02am
Quoting Grath
GBPCHF Long when it gets to 2.0121 Anyone with me?
short 2.0267 H1
  • #3,344
  • Aug 27, 2008 8:14am Aug 27, 2008 8:14am
Quoting Grath
GBPCHF Long when it gets to 2.0121 Anyone with me?
People ask all the time what makes a level good or bad. I look at short term and long term history ( in accordance with BRV philosophy) and I look for levels that have both support and resistance. If they are one sided then you can only view them safely as such. What I mean by that is if you have a level on any chart, but let's say the daily that has been used several times as support but maybe never as resistance then I call that one sided. Would I count on that level as support the next time price gets there? Nope. Because more times than not you get a little bounce at best or an outright failure at worst. Many times it's the later because the big money lines up to run it. Now when price approached that same level from underneath would I expect it to be resistance. Yep! You bet. The longer it stays below it the more I expect it. Spikes don't count. As I write this GBPCHF is trading near intradays highs and S&P mini futures is fighting resistance. SO it may be an intraday sell down to 00 with more if it breaks through and finds resistance to the downside. The only reason I point all this out is that the level you mention looks like it has been strong support on the daily but shows little resistance. So it is definately worth watching but just be aware.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #3,345
  • Aug 27, 2008 8:29am Aug 27, 2008 8:29am
Short EUR/USD @ 1.4770 looks to be a good trade.

anyone agree?
  • #3,346
  • Aug 27, 2008 9:06am Aug 27, 2008 9:06am
Quoting alif812
Short EUR/USD @ 1.4770 looks to be a good trade.

anyone agree?

crude inventories are coming in 30 minutes. you might wanna wait for a news reaction to bump against the price level resistance you have in mind.
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #3,347
  • Aug 27, 2008 9:12am Aug 27, 2008 9:12am
Quoting Iron-man
........ The only reason I point all this out is that the level you mention looks like it has been strong support on the daily but shows little resistance. So it is definately worth watching but just be aware.
Thanks for taking the time, Ironman. I am still amazed at (and very grateful for) the extent to which you and other gurus are willing to help newbies like me.
David
  • #3,348
  • Edited 10:22am Aug 27, 2008 10:17am | Edited 10:22am
Quoting Grath
Thanks for taking the time, Ironman. I am still amazed at (and very grateful for) the extent to which you and other gurus are willing to help newbies like me.
This thread is one of the few really useful ones on FF. If you want to see the complete opposite - have a look into the EURUSD thread.


BTW: BRV - the cup patterns are working great. Thanks for letting me add this into my arsenal.


Two nice bounces on EURUSD for 20+ pips each:
Attached Image
  • #3,349
  • Aug 27, 2008 12:57pm Aug 27, 2008 12:57pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Hey Chaps

Been noticing lately that my orders keep getting missed by a pip or two and then price goes on it's merry way in my direction without me!

Is this a common occurance and thus I should place my orders a few pips before the point or should I find a better charting platform?

Great example on the EUR today order at 1.4743 price hit 1.4742 and reversed.

Cheers
Hi,
I am reading this thread. When I first started learning about trading, I read that to contruct a horizontal support/resistance line you need atleast two points from which price has bounced up/down and that line has not been broken between the two points. In this thread I have seen many charts where price has broken the support/resistance line so many times but that line is still used as a level we expect price to bounce. And in some charts I see support/resistance lines being made using just one bounce. Im a bit confused on how support/resistance lines should be constructed? can Billy or someone successfully using this method for a while please define it for me. Thank you.
  • #3,350
  • Aug 27, 2008 1:04pm Aug 27, 2008 1:04pm
Eur/Jpy Long @ 160.80-90
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  • #3,351
  • Edited 1:54pm Aug 27, 2008 1:37pm | Edited 1:54pm
Quoting Kane Rai
BTW: BRV - the cup patterns are working great. Thanks for letting me add this into my arsenal.

Two nice bounces on EURUSD for 20+ pips each:
Hi Kane - thanks for the post.

I've been working the cup patterns on the 15-min chart, which is great when the market is moving OK.

However, on days like today that have very slow periods, it is sometimes difficult to find a good entry point, I find.

Your approach of using the 5-min chart for this works really well...

Great PIP opportunities on the Euro today, for example, as you pointed out.

Thanks again !

Best wishes, Loudoniii
  • #3,352
  • Aug 27, 2008 2:44pm Aug 27, 2008 2:44pm
Quoting loudoniii
Hi Kane - thanks for the post.
No problem mate, glad to be of help.

I always go by the top-down approach. First I'm looking for long to medium-term s/r levels on the 4 hour and daily chart. These timeframes are also mainly used to apply Fibonacci studies on. Then I switch to the 1 hour and look for shorter term levels "which stick out like a sore thumb". Then the 5 minute is on and I will try to pinpoint the levels from the 1H and search for cup patterns which emerged during the previous trading day or the Asian or European sessions.

Cost of doing business is important when trading the cup patterns. This is why I settled for the two pairs EUR/USD and USD/JPY which my broker offers at the low spread of 0.9 and 1.6 pips, respectively. In my opinion these two pairs behave more predictably than the GBP/USD, for example.
  • #3,353
  • Aug 27, 2008 3:01pm Aug 27, 2008 3:01pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Ok thanks Ironman I guess in a perfect world all our orders would be hit to the pip whilst our brokers were giving us foot rubs! Your answer clarifies the fact that theres nothing wrong with my charts pricing and that I simply need to adjust my strategy. Thank you

How sad.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #3,354
  • Edited 7:26pm Aug 27, 2008 3:06pm | Edited 7:26pm
Quoting Grath
Thanks for taking the time, Ironman. I am still amazed at (and very grateful for) the extent to which you and other gurus are willing to help newbies like me.
David

I appreciate the sentiment but please ....... don't use the G (guru) word.
Inserted Video


I suddenly had a vision of Mike Myers teaching a class on FX trading. Not sure why.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #3,355
  • Aug 27, 2008 3:24pm Aug 27, 2008 3:24pm
Quoting Kane Rai
I always go by the top-down approach. First I'm looking for long to medium-term s/r levels on the 4 hour and daily chart.
Hi Kane

You make a good point in terms of the top-down approach...

Applied correctly this should be the perfect combination of strategic S+R level planning, plus shorter-term cup formation patterns to pinpoint exact entry & exit levels.

Can't wait for tomorrow now to try it out .. thanks again !

Cheers, Loudoniii
  • #3,356
  • Aug 27, 2008 5:34pm Aug 27, 2008 5:34pm
This isn't exactly typical of our No Brianer thread, but I think it is vital to understand what is going on in the Gulf of Mexio.
Quote
Gustav's potential impact on the oil and gas industry
The price of U.S. crude oil has jumped about 2%, and the price of U.S. natural gas has increased 11% in the past two days, in anticipation that Gustav might rip through the oil and gas production areas of the Gulf of Mexico. About 25% of U.S. crude oil and 15% of its natural gas are produced in the Gulf of Mexico. As seen in Figure 3, the oil production areas are concentrated along the Louisiana and Texas coast. If Gustav makes a landfall on the right side of its cone of uncertainty, in Alabama or the Florida Panhandle, the oil and gas infrastructure might not be significantly affected. However, most of the cone of uncertainty lies in the major oil and gas producing areas, and I give a 60% chance that Gustav will significantly hurt oil and gas production in the Gulf.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurrican...atform_loc.png

This has been a damn crazy week. For the time being, it would appear that we are in a bit of a range with oil staying subbornly bid and keeping EUR/USD from breaking towards that 1.4300 area a lot of us have been looking for. The Loonie has been very resiliant staying strong above is recent lows around 1.0420.

I see some short EUR/USD calls, and technically they look good to me too. However, I'm staying out for a decent pull back during this mess. I shorted Monday around 1.4800. I'll be looking to short 1.4850 up through 1.4900 and 1.4950. Those are all great levels.

I viewing this hurricane/tropical storm as an opportunity. Labor Day is almost here and as we've heard from our more seasoned traders, we are likely set to see a strong trend. The evidence greatly favors a continuation of USD stregthening.

So, the opportunity is here for those of us who love these horizontal levels of S/R and love a good bargin.
My plan is more of a position trade than the typical day trade for the time being. If I were to be taking shorter term trades I buy the dips in EUR/USD, but I don't have the sack to short the USD at this point.

/my 2 cents
  • #3,357
  • Aug 27, 2008 6:52pm Aug 27, 2008 6:52pm
hi, i went short where price hit resistance at places marked with x with stop loss of 20 pips. i stopped out both times. did i make a mistake somewhere? did anyone lose money too?
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  • #3,358
  • Edited 7:24pm Aug 27, 2008 7:06pm | Edited 7:24pm
Do you think those particular levels were especially significant? That is, were they recent or respected enough that everyone else with a chart open could immediately see their relevance? To me both of those levels despite having some price action around them were not 'no brainers' (brainers?), they'd both been violated and no longer held such significance. Go back and read the pdf again, you only need to take the best of the best. You won't be as busy, some days you might not trade at all but it'll be better for your account and your confidence in the long run.

Here's a potential EJ set-up that I may look at, but it must play out exactly as I want it to or no trade. I don't want to be jumping in late if it goes without me. The level has been solid the last few days offering opportunities on both sides. There could be a shout for it being used and abused though, so not sure if I'd call it a no brainer exactly, but this is more the sort of quality set-up that pays out. A decent 'zoom through' break of the resistance and a retrace to retest the resistance turned support.
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  • #3,359
  • Aug 27, 2008 10:50pm Aug 27, 2008 10:50pm
thank you for this great thread,really open my eyes on how to use S/R level even that i`m just a newbie.

This week i`m start to using S/R beside my main trading system,and untill now its give me about 326 pips,and one open position still floating +135 on aud usd.

over all i have 9 transaction with only one negatif result ( -30 pips ).

thank u for sharing this great knowledge,and so sorry for my bad english.

may the green pips always be with us
  • #3,360
  • Aug 28, 2008 2:08am Aug 28, 2008 2:08am
GJ 199.78
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