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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #681
  • Feb 15, 2007 6:28am Feb 15, 2007 6:28am
Did you reload the boot when the news was in the direction of your trade or just ignore the whole thing?

Better pips are on the way

All the best
  • #682
  • Feb 15, 2007 7:00am Feb 15, 2007 7:00am
I've backtested a few months back and found that best stoploss should be 60pips or more, if you dare to put such stoplosses. The other not bad alternative about 35pips. You'll be taken out a few more times more often, but maybe you'll sleep better. I tested EURUSD only. I still have to forward test this technique. It seems most times what happens is that there was stop chasing and then price goes your way, like it happened last night with gbp or in the end the candle closes with a loss but better than than your stoploss.
On the other hand if in the end macd shows a new opposing signal, like for axample you had a round top and then it turned against you, so you might be showing a continuation of opposing trend you just sell losing trade and reverse it. Overall it seems to work better than having tight stoplosses.
  • #683
  • Feb 15, 2007 7:04am Feb 15, 2007 7:04am
Quoting fnmdx
At 0200GMT.

Take a look at AUD/USD. I think it will go South... (against trend):

1. MACD Round Top almost complete.
2. Strong Resistance from 4 candle back.
3. Dojis and TL at Resistance level.
4. SL = 0.7849 just above recent high.
5. TP = 0.7790 at 21EMA.
6. RR = 1:1.95 good.
7. If candle closed and MACD confirms, deal is on.
8. Barriers: i. 200SMA at 0.07708.
ii. Price level at 0.7700.

Any comments?
Ooouch! Was kicked-out....
  • #684
  • Feb 15, 2007 7:05am Feb 15, 2007 7:05am
I was asleep at that point. I only get up at 3:00 eastern to feed my new little girl. So I get to check trades then.

Unless I really feel amazingly good about a trade, I do not reverse or get back in. Take the loss, accept it and move on trying to catch the next trend.


Quoting maarf01
Did you reload the boot when the news was in the direction of your trade or just ignore the whole thing?

Better pips are on the way

All the best
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #685
  • Edited 7:24am Feb 15, 2007 7:13am | Edited 7:24am
Quoting DireXiv
I was asleep at that point. I only get up at 3:00 eastern to feed my new little girl. So I get to check trades then.

Unless I really feel amazingly good about a trade, I do not reverse or get back in. Take the loss, accept it and move on trying to catch the next trend.
Life has to be simple and joy-filled. Balancing it and trading is another side of this game.. I am taking my 9-year daughter to school right now and what on earth trading can I get into, ha-ha?
  • #686
  • Feb 15, 2007 8:27am Feb 15, 2007 8:27am
Quoting fnmdx
Ooouch! Was kicked-out....
.

Me too. Does anyone see a reason that we shouldn't have taken this trade?
  • #687
  • Feb 15, 2007 8:35am Feb 15, 2007 8:35am
Those of you looking to trade nzd/usd, my chart shows it bouncing at an upper Trend line. If you were looking to get in, a good time will be coming soon with the next MACD signal. I like to see TL bounces combined with MACD signal. I'm not trading this pair, but I know some of you look at it. Just my observation from afar.

Good luck!
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #688
  • Feb 15, 2007 8:38am Feb 15, 2007 8:38am
When is the 8MA the strongest? what are some indications that it will hit it and bounce off?
  • #689
  • Feb 15, 2007 9:02am Feb 15, 2007 9:02am
Quoting tamkras
it is free to fly within this upper beam (post 601), I agree.

ADDITION: maybe I am wrong this time but after such long price channelling, this released force may create 2 daily bullish candles in a row above the channel, or diamond figure, whatever one prefers to see.
Turk, hope you had a stop profit @1.3170. Looks like you can leave the longs now and visit your bank branch. Oops, I was right again, so sorry..
  • #690
  • Feb 15, 2007 9:20am Feb 15, 2007 9:20am
Phillip.

I try to bring forth the conflict of views we (at least I) experience when evaluating a possible trade.

1. When you taught us MACD signals in the early stage we simply used to take a position based on the MACD signal.
But, later on, you introduced us to more advanced/accurate approach by using MAs, Price barrier and Trend lines. And, later on you further introduced us to counter-trend trades (pull down / bounce up to 8MA- 21 MA range).
We earnestly learned all levels of your trading approach, step by step.

Now, with these sophistications intorduced, it has brought up one or two new issues that needs to be addressed. The Million Dollar question that comes up to me when I have to make a trading decision is:

(i) When MACD gives a signal, do we wait for the other barriers to be removed (such as, the price has to break the MA or the Trend Line or whether the price is inside the 8 & 21 MA range or the price has to break the price barrier)?

OR

(ii) When the other things happen (such as the price has broken the MA or the Trend Line or the price is inside the 8 & 21 MA range or the price has broken the price barrier), then we wait for MACD Signal to trigger before we enter a trade?

It may be pretty simple issue for you, but, trust me, it is not so to us (at least me). So, beconsiderate and explain your approach.

My second question refers to GBP/USD chart. While I am writing this, the chart is plotting its Feb. 15th, 12:00-4:00 candle. (All times are in GMT).
If we go back 4:00-8:00 candle, there was a mild "Trend Continues" signal. It means we could have bought next open. We assume we did go long because the next opening (opening of 8:00-12:00 candle) was above all MAs and also above the long term trend line. But, the completion of this candle (8:00-12:00 candle) tells us to go short ("aggressive approach' signal. I hope you got the picture of my conflict. To be long as per the '"Trend Continues" signal that triggered at the completion of 4:00-8:00 candle or to go short at the completion of 8:00-12:00 candle ("'Aggressive approach" signal).
Please guide us with your experience. Please refer to GBP/USD chart.
Thank you.
-Chandra.
  • #691
  • Feb 15, 2007 9:26am Feb 15, 2007 9:26am
Quoting tamkras
Oops, I was right again, so sorry..

Hey tamkras,
you cheeky little Devil...I envy you for being right all the time
  • #692
  • Feb 15, 2007 9:28am Feb 15, 2007 9:28am
Quoting irusoh
I've backtested a few months back and found that best stoploss should be 60pips or more, if you dare to put such stoplosses. The other not bad alternative about 35pips. You'll be taken out a few more times more often, but maybe you'll sleep better. I tested EURUSD only. I still have to forward test this technique. It seems most times what happens is that there was stop chasing and then price goes your way, like it happened last night with gbp or in the end the candle closes with a loss but better than than your stoploss.
On the other hand if in the end macd shows a new opposing signal, like for axample you had a round top and then it turned against you, so you might be showing a continuation of opposing trend you just sell losing trade and reverse it. Overall it seems to work better than having tight stoplosses.
iruosh, I agree with your observations, i got stopped out after entering short on eur/usd on the signal from macd 4 hr. I was a little reluctant to take it short especially with the bullish mood the price is showed. Did it look like it was the right signal at 0400 GMT or did i mistake it? Thanks to everyone for this great forum.
O'Zeeke
  • #693
  • Feb 15, 2007 9:33am Feb 15, 2007 9:33am
Quoting pipette4x
.

Me too. Does anyone see a reason that we shouldn't have taken this trade?
Hi!

Has anyone backtested the system with the pair? I do't trade the Aussie so I don't know it's price action.
  • #694
  • Feb 15, 2007 9:39am Feb 15, 2007 9:39am
Quoting superdezign
When is the 8MA the strongest? what are some indications that it will hit it and bounce off?
Hi Superdezign!

In a strong trend : ) Look for a widening in the MA's and a fan in perfect order. also, take a look at the angle and direction of the indicator. & it will be stronger if corresponds w/trendline...haven't really looked for that, so I don't know if it exists....hmmmmm
  • #695
  • Feb 15, 2007 9:55am Feb 15, 2007 9:55am
Quoting Chandra
Phillip.

I try to bring forth the conflict of views we (at least I) experience when evaluating a possible trade.

1. When you taught us MACD signals in the early stage we simply used to take a position based on the MACD signal.
But, later on, you introduced us to more advanced/accurate approach by using MAs, Price barrier and Trend lines. And, later on you further introduced us to counter-trend trades (pull down / bounce up to 8MA- 21 MA range).
We earnestly learned all levels of your trading approach, step by step.

Now, with these sophistications intorduced, it has brought up one or two new issues that needs to be addressed. The Million Dollar question that comes up to me when I have to make a trading decision is:

(i) When MACD gives a signal, do we wait for the other barriers to be removed (such as, the price has to break the MA or the Trend Line or whether the price is inside the 8 & 21 MA range or the price has to break the price barrier)?

OR

(ii) When the other things happen (such as the price has broken the MA or the Trend Line or the price is inside the 8 & 21 MA range or the price has broken the price barrier), then we wait for MACD Signal to trigger before we enter a trade?

It may be pretty simple issue for you, but, trust me, it is not so to us (at least me). So, beconsiderate and explain your approach.

My second question refers to GBP/USD chart. While I am writing this, the chart is plotting its Feb. 15th, 12:00-4:00 candle. (All times are in GMT).
If we go back 4:00-8:00 candle, there was a mild "Trend Continues" signal. It means we could have bought next open. We assume we did go long because the next opening (opening of 8:00-12:00 candle) was above all MAs and also above the long term trend line. But, the completion of this candle (8:00-12:00 candle) tells us to go short ("aggressive approach' signal. I hope you got the picture of my conflict. To be long as per the '"Trend Continues" signal that triggered at the completion of 4:00-8:00 candle or to go short at the completion of 8:00-12:00 candle ("'Aggressive approach" signal).
Please guide us with your experience. Please refer to GBP/USD chart.
Thank you.
-Chandra.

EurUsd

1. MACD gave signal end of 8:00 to 12:00 candle at 1.3133
2. Stoploss = above resistance = trendline = 50+ pips or 1.3200 = +70
3. Target1 = 1.3100 = 33 pips
4. Target 2 = 21 EMA1.3067 = 66 pips

Action.
If you want to take the trade on to make R:R worth it it must go to target 2 and stoploss +70. If you have done that you would still be in the trade.
I never use stop above 48 pips.

Skip for the time being my action

I took the trade after the 16:00 candle at 1.3145 and stoploss 1.3173 with first target 1.2320. Risking 28pips of yesterdays 60+ gain. There money not mine. It is also a risky one as it havent test the longtermtrend at 1.3180


GbpUsd:

1. Macd did not give short signal.
2. You called it a "mild" continuation pattern. I will never trade on that. You have just explain with that word what you think of that pattern. Not very convincing.
3. When the MACD gave a short signal your stoploss had to be over 100 pips to cover the previous candle.

Action

Skip for the time being.


Made over 60pips yesterday. See the post.
  • #696
  • Feb 15, 2007 9:59am Feb 15, 2007 9:59am
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Superdezign!

In a strong trend : ) Look for a widening in the MA's and a fan in perfect order. also, take a look at the angle and direction of the indicator. & it will be stronger if corresponds w/trendline...haven't really looked for that, so I don't know if it exists....hmmmmm

so basically, its not to be considered strong unless it converges with another form of resistance, is that what you are saying?
  • #697
  • Feb 15, 2007 9:59am Feb 15, 2007 9:59am
Quoting O'Zeeke
iruosh, I agree with your observations, i got stopped out after entering short on eur/usd on the signal from macd 4 hr. I was a little reluctant to take it short especially with the bullish mood the price is showed. Did it look like it was the right signal at 0400 GMT or did i mistake it? Thanks to everyone for this great forum.
O'Zeeke
Iruosh,
In my opinion, you were right as per MACD 'Round Top" signal when you entered a short on 4:00 candle, but you seems to have stopped out because of the trechorus "TAIL" (as Phillip emphasises its importance). The solution of giving bigger stop loss provision as suggested in the previous posting seems to be a good idea. Sure you lose more by giving bigger s/l but at the same time, you get hit fewer times.
I hope I am right. Phillip to comment please.
-Chandra.
  • #698
  • Feb 15, 2007 10:02am Feb 15, 2007 10:02am
yea I have been short Eur/usd for a good while now,

Im taking profit at 1.3070 and I entered at 1.3133

MACD gave me a signal to go short, was slightly unsure for a while, but it looks as though it hit its top
  • #699
  • Feb 15, 2007 10:04am Feb 15, 2007 10:04am
Quoting Chandra
Iruosh,
In my opinion, you were right as per MACD 'Round Top" signal when you entered a short on 4:00 candle, but you seems to have stopped out because of the trechorus "TAIL" (as Phillip emphasises its importance). The solution of giving bigger stop loss provision as suggested in the previous posting seems to be a good idea. Sure you lose more by giving bigger s/l but at the same time, you get hit fewer times.
I hope I am right. Phillip to comment please.
-Chandra.

Stoploss were to big. See previous post.
  • #700
  • Feb 15, 2007 10:11am Feb 15, 2007 10:11am
Look at Chart.
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