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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #13,161
  • Aug 26, 2008 6:16pm Aug 26, 2008 6:16pm
One of the reasons those bars are failing is cause lots of the big boys are on vacation and there isn't enough big money in the market to make those nice sustained moves. So low liquidity translates to very unstable situation.
If i were you i would wait to start of september and then we may see the nice moves.

Quoting nuriksari
Hi Mike, first of all I want to thank you for all your efforts to help us and I really like your comments and looking to learn something from you whenever you post something. However, about the E/J pin bars i have question. I agree with you regarding the first one not being broken, maybe the second one has small nose, but as I see the third one has very nice long nose, it was in location, swing low and after very big drop and has all the space. Why the hell then is it failed? Just simple answer, because it does not have work everytime. By the way I took the pin into my live account, because i thought it was worth the risk. Can you please show a few example where there is no traffic? I ask this question because as I said, I know you are great trader and can learn something from you. By the way I have already watched your video about pin bars three times. Thats why this traffic issue has confussed me, because all I can see was it was after big drop, no sideways markets and created well space. Thanks....

Cheers,
Nuriksari
  • #13,162
  • Aug 26, 2008 6:31pm Aug 26, 2008 6:31pm
Quoting fxprocessor
Hi Mike

What about this one?

No traffic and nice nose.

cheers
Yes I had a pending order that never triggered. I had my buy order Just ABOVE the rd number. It never got triggered. RD numbers are important.


Best
Mike
  • #13,163
  • Aug 26, 2008 6:37pm Aug 26, 2008 6:37pm
Quoting nuriksari
Hi Mike, first of all I want to thank you for all your efforts to help us and I really like your comments and looking to learn something from you whenever you post something. However, about the E/J pin bars i have question. I agree with you regarding the first one not being broken, maybe the second one has small nose, but as I see the third one has very nice long nose, it was in location, swing low and after very big drop and has all the space. Why the hell then is it failed? Just simple answer, because it does not have work everytime. By the way I took the pin into my live account, because i thought it was worth the risk. Can you please show a few example where there is no traffic? I ask this question because as I said, I know you are great trader and can learn something from you. By the way I have already watched your video about pin bars three times. Thats why this traffic issue has confussed me, because all I can see was it was after big drop, no sideways markets and created well space. Thanks....

Cheers,
Nuriksari

Hey Nuriksari

Marked A on my chart is the one not in traffic. Traffic I used refers to when price is moving sideways OR when there are prior lows/high getting in the way

See on my chart the low of Bar marked B. Well pinbar C, the nose barely was getting below this bar. So the bar itself has a LONG nose, but it is where this nose is piercing that is very important to how I pick pinbars. If you see with bar A, there is nothing to the left, this is good bar in open SPACE. Also look how the price bars to the left are all moving sideways. This is what is going to hold up this bar on the break up. So it really stalled right where one would have expected(blue horizontal). So IMO if you are willing to play a bar like bar C, you have to be ready to move your stops at the blue horizontal, because the bar is occuring in more traffic. Where as on bar A, if it broke I would be willing to hold it longer.

Hope that helps

Mike
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  • #13,164
  • Aug 26, 2008 6:39pm Aug 26, 2008 6:39pm
Quoting eraserhead
Is it possible to update the word or pdf document whith these rules? I never listened about "traffic". I know that James has a pay-site and I understand well why document attached here are so quite poor.
well in Italy we say "to try doesn't hurt"
That PDF document was put together by a reader of this thread. So it is unofficial but still did a good job of covering some basics.

If you go to the "guest" section on the james16 pay site, and go to guest material check out my video called pinbar introduction. It will help introduce you to the traffic concept better then I could ever do with words.

Also within the next week or 2 I will have more video clips for the guest section


Mike
  • #13,165
  • Aug 26, 2008 6:43pm Aug 26, 2008 6:43pm
Quoting nuriksari
Okay, here is my recent daily chart of USD/CHF. I have still around 3 hours to close the candle, however it looks very nice, long nose, at extreme high pin bar. I am not gonna take it, because it is in TRAFFIC. When you look the bars at the left of the pin, it is sideways movement clearly for a while an price is in the range between 1.1019 and 1.0850. If anybody will play it just play the break first target being around 1.0850. Anyway, all I wanna say is this pin is in traffic, however I still can not see the same thing for EURO/JPY posted earlier. CAN anybody especially MIKE enlighten me please? (this is my first trying to attach a chart, hopefully it appears on the screen)

THANKs ALL of you guys

Nuriksari
Ok sorry I just took over this thread for a bit lol

This is a perfect example like the eur/jpy.

See how price is overall sideways from where this pin was created. Then the nose is just barely sneaking above that other bar high(the purple horizontal lines).

This is traffic to me, meaning if I was to take a trade like this I would be looking to the lows(marked with blue horizontal), for price to likely stall, and meaning move my stop to b/e or taking full profit.

Great timing for this example

Hope this helps a bit

Mike
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  • #13,166
  • Aug 26, 2008 6:47pm Aug 26, 2008 6:47pm
Quoting fxprocessor
Jaroo

You obviously have a great talent capturing moves like that.

I only post my examples because I do not think this is as dirt simple as Jim says...other Jim :-)

The only problem for average Joe in taking profits so early is that one full stop out will hit them hard. In this example approx 3 wins would be needed to pay for one stop out if taking profits so early.
I guesss you missed my loss on the 2nd PB.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=12905
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #13,167
  • Aug 26, 2008 6:48pm Aug 26, 2008 6:48pm
Hey guys, what do you say about eurodollar,

http://img300.imageshack.us/img300/2673/eurusdh4bh8.gif
  • #13,168
  • Aug 26, 2008 7:02pm Aug 26, 2008 7:02pm
Quoting jarroo
Third one didn't fail. I caught some pips at the 163.00ish level.
Me too. Just not enough. LOL

Those wondering about failed pins...

They happen.

You can analyse the crap out of your chart to find a reason a trade failed , and you will find a reason. (as a few older hands here keep repeating.)

Stick around. There will be more winners than losers.

You have to have patience. ...It's amazing how often good winning trades come along. Browse the first couple of hundred pages of this thread and you'll see evidence of it.
As well as James16's posts, read mbqb11's and habeeb's posts. You'll see them learning the basics at one stage too and making the same mistakes in identification etc. We have ALL been there.

,Bundy
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #13,169
  • Aug 26, 2008 7:09pm Aug 26, 2008 7:09pm
Quoting mbqb11
Ok sorry I just took over this thread for a bit lol

This is a perfect example like the eur/jpy.

See how price is overall sideways from where this pin was created. Then the nose is just barely sneaking above that other bar high(the purple horizontal lines).

This is traffic to me, meaning if I was to take a trade like this I would be looking to the lows(marked with blue horizontal), for price to likely stall, and meaning move my stop to b/e or taking full profit.

Great timing for this example


Hope this helps a bit

Mike
Amazing how turning the situation upside down can make it clearer too. LOL

The E/J pin I posted was a bit silly. Right from the start I planned to watch the blue line area (on your chart) and take a big chunk of the position off to balance out the crappy chances it had. Jaroo recognised this too. Ok for us 'oldies' to enter trades like that, but not an ideal newcomer trade at all. I guess I should be smarter than that.

Good examples, as always, dude.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #13,170
  • Edited 9:14pm Aug 26, 2008 8:59pm | Edited 9:14pm
Quoting ghous
good to see that you were able to avoid this trade, the pin bar on 4H Au did actually work out as price did make it to the north, though unable to close with authority...to me Au is far from a long and since i trade only daily and above i won't even think of a long till i see this bearish momentum come to an end...(refer to Au chart...)

as for usd/cad i am eyeing it for a short, (the trade you mentioned on the 4H may well have been on) as a hold for a long term trade, previously this position was taken up by Nu which was looking good for a nice longer term upmove, but it's not been a good boy so far, so i closed my Nu long and am looking forward to the usd/cad short...reasons? here they are...(refer to chart)
Thanks for the insights on the usd/cad
I'm just really trying to pick my trades. The last example of your trade of that macd divergence really made a big impact on me. So I'm trying my patience
Woke up this morning and also notice the PB on usd/chf...passed on that too cause the R:R is not that great. It's good to see that Mike posted a chart and confirm of my plan of non action
Whereas seniors like Bundy and Jarroo can squeeze a "few" pips from a signal like that, I don't believe I can't yet.
  • #13,171
  • Aug 26, 2008 9:20pm Aug 26, 2008 9:20pm
Quoting mbqb11
Ok sorry I just took over this thread for a bit lol

This is a perfect example like the eur/jpy.

See how price is overall sideways from where this pin was created. Then the nose is just barely sneaking above that other bar high(the purple horizontal lines).

This is traffic to me, meaning if I was to take a trade like this I would be looking to the lows(marked with blue horizontal), for price to likely stall, and meaning move my stop to b/e or taking full profit.

Great timing for this example

Hope this helps a bit

Mike






After a statement like that I'm shorting the hell out of this one.....lol

remember guys, its still just a matter of probabilities..
  • #13,172
  • Aug 27, 2008 12:57am Aug 27, 2008 12:57am
Quoting mbqb11
"Traffic" [] refers to when price is moving sideways OR when there are prior lows/high getting in the way
another A+ explanation.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #13,173
  • Aug 27, 2008 1:43am Aug 27, 2008 1:43am
As I said before I have backtested this already (as you suggested moving stop to break even after approx 70 pips) and it just hurts bottom line as far as I can see. If you want to trade them this way it's your money.


cheers

Quoting Razorman
better to cut your winner short or break even then take a loss. there are lots of trades that break right from the start and do a good move.
  • #13,174
  • Aug 27, 2008 2:14am Aug 27, 2008 2:14am
Hey guys,
do you have some backtest data?Have you ever tried this? I'd like to do a big back test. a 4-5 markets , test all pinbars, dblhc,dbhlc, tbh / tbl breakouts etc.
  • #13,175
  • Aug 27, 2008 2:23am Aug 27, 2008 2:23am
Recent example to contrast with all the other PBs we've seen around recently.
See how the space before the PB is a lot cleaner and there aren't 50 bars next to it keeping it company, trying to bum some pip power off of it.

See how the first stalling was at the prior bar's low, the next stalling at the larger marked underside area(which is where a conservative target would have been imho).

Some items can be simple and obvious, but it means skipping 99% of the bad setups in turn, which most simply are reluctant to do(otherwise we'd probably have 1-2 posts a day vs 20 a day ).
One of the biggest problems usually is that people want or feel the need to trade(especially when they've just experienced a drawdown).
Asking yourself honestly whether you suffer from this could end up being the best "filter" for your trading.
I've heard it a lot as an issue and know it from myself, too("the need to be in")
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Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #13,176
  • Aug 27, 2008 2:38am Aug 27, 2008 2:38am
Quoting bundyraider
the weekly pin I presume? (Ed: NZDUSD)
I wouldn't have entered against the pivot zone it sat on. ( I don't think . Easy to say that now. )

You 'd need the opinion of someone who's planned it out on that one. Anyone??

Anyway, if you've stuck it out on the time frame you entered on you would probably have taken some profit with the stop on the remaining STILL sitting below the pin. That's if you're trading the weekly chart on that trade, (with the appropriate position size, of course)
I know that someone on the J16 site aimed for just around the 0.7200+ area, so I assume it got there okay for him.
Others who take a more longer term approach would probably have done it like you described bundy, although I'd prolly be more shy to take profit so soon.
There were also some folks who flat out refused to take a long and were looking for a daily BEOB instead(which later on actually showed up). I expect/hope that worked out for them.

So there's always several plans of action..in this case 2 out of 3 would have been able to make either money(shooting for .72 or the D-BEOB) or not lose any(stop to b/e at the .72 area) and the jury is still out on the third "stop below PB and wait" option. Since we just had a stubby daily PB that triggered, perhaps that option may just "go" as well. (Which would mean 3 goes at the same thing in 3 variations = 3 wins....not a bad time for the "trading system" at all...the question isn't just what appears, but what you make of it that's crucial...which is what's both good and bad about discretionary trading and where experience makes so much difference)


I do agree with FXProcessor though, if you want to be in for the "main move", moving your stops too soon WILL kick you out of trades. But you need to be aware that in turn you obviously need to be right about your bar being a swingpoint as well - which emphasizes once more the importance of good vs bad setups, as the good ones WILL go long enough to enable eventual stop movement.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #13,177
  • Aug 27, 2008 5:46am Aug 27, 2008 5:46am
I'd like to share with you one idea.
A few weeks ago, I got angry because of some drawdown with some faults, I was really angry about myself and I felt i need to relax. What happened then? I stop with my plan, absolutely stop to trade.What happened in few hours? Some markets made 4-5 A+ beautiful pinbars where was a little pip risk and big RRR. It could be best day with 700+ pips with risk +- 150 pips. But I wasn't in my anger in. So I could be without old losses and in really nice ++ but I sit here angry and I was thinging too much about last losses.
So guys, BE THE ROBOT, I think it's the biggest goal what can a trader have. good luck. Clear up your mind and go play A+ trades
  • #13,178
  • Aug 27, 2008 7:05am Aug 27, 2008 7:05am
Quoting Jankone
I'd like to share with you one idea.
A few weeks ago, I got angry because of some drawdown with some faults, I was really angry about myself and I felt i need to relax. What happened then? I stop with my plan, absolutely stop to trade.What happened in few hours? Some markets made 4-5 A+ beautiful pinbars where was a little pip risk and big RRR. It could be best day with 700+ pips with risk +- 150 pips. But I wasn't in my anger in. So I could be without old losses and in really nice ++ but I sit here angry and I was thinging too much about last losses.
So guys, BE THE ROBOT, I think it's the biggest goal what can a trader have. good luck. Clear up your mind and go play A+ trades
You're not alone Jankone. I missed the big moves too. I've missed many others over time too. An old habit even showed it's head for me ... "having an opinion" LOL. The worse thing you could have done though is over react, and you haven't. Which is good.
Look at your current time in the market as time spent doing a college degree etc. You might be missing them now, but later on everything will fall into place. One day.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #13,179
  • Aug 27, 2008 8:27am Aug 27, 2008 8:27am
About GBP/CHF Greenhaze's post (#13152)


Is this a false breakout? or a nice retractment to enter short?
  • #13,180
  • Aug 27, 2008 10:19am Aug 27, 2008 10:19am
Hi folks,
question, there is big one problem, I see pin bar, a great pin bar, @ Oanda. but Interbank no pinbar, my broker - retarded pinbar..What do you play as #1 ?
I dont really know where I should trade. I cant watch 3-4 brokers every day,it's crazy.thanks a lot
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