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  • #3,301
  • Aug 26, 2008 4:07am Aug 26, 2008 4:07am
Quoting len979
Yeah, breakout higher happening right now. It's already tested 1.1020 resistance three times. Next resistance I see is 1.1280
can you open my eyes please
i can see r at 1108 (weekly/daily charts) were pa stopped in late january and again early feb.
but i can't see what your seeing at 1280
would really appreciate guidance
  • #3,302
  • Aug 26, 2008 4:17am Aug 26, 2008 4:17am
Quoting Epipip
can you open my eyes please
i can see r at 1108 (weekly/daily charts) were pa stopped in late january and again early feb.
but i can't see what your seeing at 1280
would really appreciate guidance
Looks to me like he was looking at the weekly candle closing of Dec, 02 2007...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf w1 8-26-2008.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #3,303
  • Edited 4:44am Aug 26, 2008 4:31am | Edited 4:44am
Quoting len979
I would wait for the 4hr candle to close above 1.1040 for breakout to be confirmed. Then go long with a tight stop below breakout range.
I waited for it to get above the 1.1065 level and then went in long. Now wondering if that was wise. If you were in my shoes, where would you put your stop? I elected for 1.1050 but that might be a bit tight?

Thanks.
  • #3,304
  • Aug 26, 2008 4:45am Aug 26, 2008 4:45am
Quoting Aad
Looks to me like he was looking at the weekly candle closing of Dec, 02 2007...
gotcha, thanks Aad.

1280'ish acted as support in december 04 so is the first area to precisely meet brv rules.
thanks
  • #3,305
  • Aug 26, 2008 5:55am Aug 26, 2008 5:55am
Quoting Epipip
gotcha, thanks Aad.

1280'ish acted as support in december 04 so is the first area to precisely meet brv rules.
thanks

Yeah, I should of posted the monthly chart that shows the Dec 01, 2004 weekly bar for better clarity...
  • #3,306
  • Aug 26, 2008 8:12am Aug 26, 2008 8:12am
Quoting Epipip
price has probed this 1020/1030'ish area five times in the last week and 1021 is a weekly 38% fib line.

if it does breakthrough i don't see strong resistence until 1.1108 (?)

a failure could see a retrace to 973'ish (?)
Im with you all the way, i have the exact same levels.... but what indicates a retrace would be to 973'ish?

thanks!
Just focus on the pips. The rest is insignificant.
  • #3,307
  • Aug 26, 2008 9:42am Aug 26, 2008 9:42am
Quoting cruze2005
0320-0340 looks to be a good buy area. Level of S/R on a number of occasions and is also the 76.4% retrace level from the high to low. Still a way to go to come down to it however. Charts posted below
Less than 100 pips to go. Best situation is it gets there and gold/oil plummet.

FALL FALL FALL= $$$$$$$
  • #3,308
  • Aug 26, 2008 11:01am Aug 26, 2008 11:01am
Quoting Grath
I waited for it to get above the 1.1065 level and then went in long. Now wondering if that was wise. If you were in my shoes, where would you put your stop? I elected for 1.1050 but that might be a bit tight?

Thanks.
Your stop is too tight. It's already been taken out. When I said to place your stop below breakour range I meant below1.1020
  • #3,309
  • Aug 26, 2008 11:12am Aug 26, 2008 11:12am
Long usd/chf 1.1010, stop 1.0964, TP 1.1220 ... smallish position in case it's a false breakout like what nzd/usd did the other day when it broke out above 0.7170.

Actually i'm not very comfortable with this "breakout" ... looks like it's forming a triple top on daily around 1.1080. I'll place a 40 pip trailing stop.
  • #3,310
  • Aug 26, 2008 11:25am Aug 26, 2008 11:25am
Quoting len979
Short gbp/usd 1.8544 ... adding. My average is now 1.8500.
Lowered Stop to 1.8438 on all three short positions on cable. That locks in 62 pips average
  • #3,311
  • Aug 26, 2008 11:28am Aug 26, 2008 11:28am
AUDUSD Long 0.7676 area. Support from 7 Aug 07 and before. Right on the 76 fib from last major wave (weekly).

(Would this be a No Brainer or is it just too far away?)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #3,312
  • Aug 26, 2008 11:29am Aug 26, 2008 11:29am
Looks like nzd/usd is at good resistance here at 0.6955. Next stop could be 0.6680
  • #3,313
  • Aug 26, 2008 11:39am Aug 26, 2008 11:39am
Quoting Grath
AUDUSD Long 0.7676 area. Support from 7 Aug 07 and before. Right on the 76 fib from last major wave (weekly).

(Would this be a No Brainer or is it just too far away?)
0.7930 might be a better level to go long on aud/usd as it acted as resistance three times and support once, and it's at 61.8% fib on weekly.

You gotta be careful though ... Look at what happened on 8/16/07 and 8/17/07. I'll go long @ 0.7940 with my stop in the 0.7860's area.
  • #3,314
  • Aug 26, 2008 11:55am Aug 26, 2008 11:55am
Quoting Epipip
can you open my eyes please
i can see r at 1108 (weekly/daily charts) were pa stopped in late january and again early feb.
but i can't see what your seeing at 1280
would really appreciate guidance
Sorry for late reply. 1.1280 acted as support two times on monthly. First time march and april 1995 and again november and december 2004.

$USD might not ramp up for much longer. There's very good resistance on the $USD dollar index at 80.78 and we are now at 77.32. I'll be looking to start shorting $USD pretty soon. Swissy is a very good proxy for dollar index
  • #3,315
  • Aug 26, 2008 12:11pm Aug 26, 2008 12:11pm
Quoting len979
Short gbp/usd 1.8416, stop 1.8572, TP 1.8010 ... small position coz I entered late. I might average around 1.8490 if it gets there.

Quoting len979
Short gbp/usd 1.8540 ... adding, same stop and TP. Limit order got hit a few minutes ago. I'm suprised cable ramped up this fast after breaking 1.8500 support. 4hr chart shows good resistance. This is a smallish position, that's why I have a wide stop
Quoting len979
Short gbp/usd 1.8544 ... adding. My average is now 1.8500.
Closed gbp/usd @ 1.8375 for +169, +165, +41.

I decided to close all three cable shorts here based on $usd index nearing resistance. You'll never go broke taking profits. I'll short on decent bounces with tighter stops.
  • #3,316
  • Aug 26, 2008 12:11pm Aug 26, 2008 12:11pm
1.7376 is the point i can see for GU, nothing more. Makes sense? I really can't see another point. 2.8072 is a bottom but don't have another point in the past.
  • #3,317
  • Aug 26, 2008 12:15pm Aug 26, 2008 12:15pm
Short eur/usd 1.4620, stop 1.4711, TP 1.4400 .... a little late. That's why I have a wider stop.
  • #3,318
  • Aug 26, 2008 12:23pm Aug 26, 2008 12:23pm
Quoting len979
Short eur/usd 1.4620, stop 1.4711, TP 1.4400 .... a little late. That's why I have a wider stop.
I think you might have a better shot higher; hourly close came in just above the 1.4630 figure - looks like a tug of war around here more than anything for the time being. Regardless, clearly buyers are being muted regardless of any correlations.
  • #3,319
  • Aug 26, 2008 12:30pm Aug 26, 2008 12:30pm
Quoting giraia_br
1.7376 is the point i can see for GU, nothing more. Makes sense? I really can't see another point. 2.8072 is a bottom but don't have another point in the past.
I think your right. There's good support on cable at 1.7370 - 1.7160 on monthly chart, but anything is possible.
  • #3,320
  • Aug 26, 2008 12:33pm Aug 26, 2008 12:33pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I think you might have a better shot higher; hourly close came in just above the 1.4630 figure - looks like a tug of war around here more than anything for the time being. Regardless, clearly buyers are being muted regardless of any correlations.
I based that trade on 4hr chart. 1.4660 would have been a better entry, but I missed it. I might average around 1.4650's if it get's there. I need a better method of setting alerts when support or resistance is broken. I'm missing too many entries.
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