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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #661
  • Feb 14, 2007 8:08pm Feb 14, 2007 8:08pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
If it breaks up above trendline then 1.9700 could be on. If you are not in a position now it could be dangerous to try and get in. Stoploss must be well out of the way. I will wait for a possible testing of the 89SMA and 200SMA and go with a trendcontinue signal from the MACD. If it does not give a clear signal I will sit till it does. I rather make 5 good deals a month giving 200 pips than 10 deals also making 200 as the emotions will be very mixed.

This is a great example of patience and discipline along with trade planning! It is so easy to want to jump on board after a pair has moved (we are afraid of missing out) only to find ourselves in a losing trade. Yet, it is so very hard to excercise control and wait for a trade to come to us. Sorry I'm speaking in generalities...I should specify myself and past trading history. It is only recently that I have discovered that it is possible to sit back and wait for the trade to come to me rather than chasing.

This 4 hour system is great because it gives us time to plan our trades rationally and to assess the R:R in an analytical manner! Let's remember to excercise patience....pass on the not so good trades....follow our plan...and before you know it, our trading accounts are filled with pips!!!!!!!
  • #662
  • Edited Feb 15, 2007 1:58pm Feb 14, 2007 8:14pm | Edited Feb 15, 2007 1:58pm
Quoting superdezign
anyone else feeling euro short?
I expect for EUR/USD correction during the end of Asian session or in London one. Went short at 1.3132 with 30 pips SL (above the daily resistance). A bit risky, of course, so I trade 1/2 my usual lot size.
===============
I have closed my short this morning on break-even. It seems if the signal did not get proof during next 2-3 candles, it must be considered as false. Go long.
The H4 MACD round top/bottom works fine on ranging markets only. When a trend starts, those produce too many false signals. Look at history charts and you'll find a lot of examples when price goes higher and higher every time a round top fails to finish and new top forms.
Ben
  • #663
  • Feb 14, 2007 8:26pm Feb 14, 2007 8:26pm
Phillip

Thanks for sharing your strategy and helping us in understanding the intricacies of the system.

I know this system is designed for 4 hrs, but did you happen to try on a DAILY with any different settings ?.

Iam thinking this strategy might yield more on a DAILY.

Thanks again for your patience.
  • #664
  • Feb 14, 2007 8:30pm Feb 14, 2007 8:30pm
I shorted the gbp/usd. I have 3 converging trend lines at the peak, with the MACD forming a signal at .45, along with this coming after a very sharp uptrend, I feel it's a pretty good setup, but maybe not for evreryone.

It may not go too far as the 89 and 200 are fairly close, but we'll see what happens. Attached is a chart.

In: 1.9625
S/L: 1.9664 R:R ok

I also use the MIG demo to see what you all are seeing too. Sometimes, my broker shows earlier moves... sometimes later.... it's that 1 hour candle difference....
Attached Image
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #665
  • Feb 14, 2007 8:41pm Feb 14, 2007 8:41pm
GPD.USD hasn't formed a proper MACD top.
Or am I incorrect?

Hope your trade works out :-)
  • #666
  • Edited 8:47pm Feb 14, 2007 8:42pm | Edited 8:47pm
At 0200GMT.

Take a look at AUD/USD. I think it will go South... (against trend):

1. MACD Round Top almost complete.
2. Strong Resistance from 4 candle back.
3. Dojis and TL at Resistance level.
4. SL = 0.7849 just above recent high.
5. TP = 0.7790 at 21EMA.
6. RR = 1:1.95 good.
7. If candle closed and MACD confirms, deal is on.
8. Barriers: i. 200SMA at 0.07708.
ii. Price level at 0.7700.

Any comments?
Attached Image
  • #667
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:20pm Feb 14, 2007 9:20pm
I went short on the Euro (10:18 PM EST) @ 1.3131

MACD rounded top
Stop @ 1.3157 - 10 pips above resistance
Target profit @ 1.3104 (8MA & TL confuence)

R;R =1
  • #668
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:28pm Feb 14, 2007 9:28pm
Good luck alcastro, I'm planning on reversing my position as well (short).

I will enter if it can't hold the 30's.
  • #669
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:02pm Feb 14, 2007 10:02pm
Quoting alcastro
I went short on the Euro (10:18 PM EST) @ 1.3131

MACD rounded top
Stop @ 1.3157 - 10 pips above resistance
Target profit @ 1.3104 (8MA & TL confuence)

R;R =1
According to MIGFx, there hasn't been a reversal on the MACD. It appears that this current candle may result in a reversal/retracement but i have another 3 hours to wait for candle close and i'll be sleeping by then.

The AUD/USD looks good for an entry. I went short at 7831, with a 25 pip stop (several pips above current high). My target is set for 7806, given the 200 SMA and the centennial along with the 38% fib retracement level.

I'm not sure what to make of the CAD. It appears to have a rounded bottom formation, for lack of a better description. i'll observe for tonight.

This is a great group. i appreciate how everyone pitches in and helps each other. thanks to all
  • #670
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:04pm Feb 14, 2007 10:04pm
Quoting fnmdx
At 0200GMT.

Take a look at AUD/USD. I think it will go South... (against trend):

1. MACD Round Top almost complete.
2. Strong Resistance from 4 candle back.
3. Dojis and TL at Resistance level.
4. SL = 0.7849 just above recent high.
5. TP = 0.7790 at 21EMA.
6. RR = 1:1.95 good.
7. If candle closed and MACD confirms, deal is on.
8. Barriers: i. 200SMA at 0.07708.
ii. Price level at 0.7700.

Any comments?
Great analysis. i got in but my target is set above the centennial. If i was up to trade this, i'd take partial profits off along the way. But since it's bedtime, i'll be satisfied with 25 pips, provided it doesn't continue up and stop me out
  • #671
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:37pm Feb 14, 2007 10:37pm
Quoting pipette4x
According to MIGFx, there hasn't been a reversal on the MACD. It appears that this current candle may result in a reversal/retracement but i have another 3 hours to wait for candle close and i'll be sleeping by then.

The AUD/USD looks good for an entry. I went short at 7831, with a 25 pip stop (several pips above current high). My target is set for 7806, given the 200 SMA and the centennial along with the 38% fib retracement level.

I'm not sure what to make of the CAD. It appears to have a rounded bottom formation, for lack of a better description. i'll observe for tonight.

This is a great group. i appreciate how everyone pitches in and helps each other. thanks to all

You are right. I think I jumped a little early, breaking thecardinal rule of patience, and waiting until this candle was closed. Now i have to hope for the best...this is not ideal since my outcome will depend more on luck than in analysis.
  • #672
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:40pm Feb 14, 2007 10:40pm
Any thoughts on the USDCHF? Looks like a rounded bottom is forming, signaling a potential upside move... or is it still too early to tell?
  • #673
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:46pm Feb 14, 2007 10:46pm
Hello All - The previous daily bar for GBP-USD was over 185 pips and it closed near the top of the day. Usually, when this happen the next daily bar tends to continue in the direction of the previous bar for 100 pips - more or less. I think the pound can go up another 100 pips before turning south.

- Frank -
I am not advising you to buy or sell the pound, I am just making an observation.
  • #674
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:59pm Feb 14, 2007 10:59pm
According to my MigCharts the Euro Macd looks good. It is about to close after forming a round top. I don't see any resistance close, but I am still trying to understand the moving Average lines and interpret them.

I don't know how to add a pic of my chart or else, I would of course.

Does anyone else see this as a good entry to go short?

Thanks to all- this is a great forum with a lot of knowledge spewing.
  • #675
  • Feb 15, 2007 1:18am Feb 15, 2007 1:18am
The MACD shows a nice rounded top with a strong resistance on 1.3150. Two times hit this level. What do you thing? Dont forget about the news in 2 hours. Cable might have a strong influence on euro.
  • #676
  • Feb 15, 2007 1:45am Feb 15, 2007 1:45am
I think this is almost shortable
  • #677
  • Feb 15, 2007 2:25am Feb 15, 2007 2:25am
Hi I went short this morning, when the signal bar closed I was still sleeping so I entered at 1.3139 when I woke up, took some profits at 20 pips and my next take profit would be near the 8 ma and price level 1.31. I set my stop to breakeven now. We'll see..
Attached Image
  • #678
  • Feb 15, 2007 4:15am Feb 15, 2007 4:15am
Quoting DireXiv
I shorted the gbp/usd. I have 3 converging trend lines at the peak, with the MACD forming a signal at .45, along with this coming after a very sharp uptrend, I feel it's a pretty good setup, but maybe not for evreryone.

It may not go too far as the 89 and 200 are fairly close, but we'll see what happens. Attached is a chart.

In: 1.9625
S/L: 1.9664 R:R ok

I also use the MIG demo to see what you all are seeing too. Sometimes, my broker shows earlier moves... sometimes later.... it's that 1 hour candle difference....
Looks like you were a bit unlucky there Dire, getting stopped out just before 100+ pip drop after consumer spending numbers.

G-Man
  • #679
  • Feb 15, 2007 5:56am Feb 15, 2007 5:56am
Welll.... that happens sometimes. I woke up this morning and told my computer what I thought of it ..... Live and learn, and make some more pips later. Shouldnt' have been in by looking at the MIG data, but my data showed ok. Trying to strike a balance, but I think I'll just have to stick with the MIG data and miss out on some trades.
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #680
  • Feb 15, 2007 6:27am Feb 15, 2007 6:27am
Well it is best to be philosophical about these things. They are going to happen, so it's best to accept it. If you traded correctly according to your rules then that's all you can do.

The next time it may go in your favour. Stopped out just before news, which goes against your position and you miss out on large slippage.

G-Man
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