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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #13,021
  • Edited 10:15pm Aug 23, 2008 8:29pm | Edited 10:15pm
Quoting jarroo
Cool. "Interactive", like a video game.
LOL. Yeah I'm not that keen on the new names.

I'll get over it though.

Edit: I change my mind. This is all f____ up. Can't find anything.
It took Merlin and the guys a while to balance the forum organisation , and now someone has better ideas.

.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #13,022
  • Aug 24, 2008 2:57am Aug 24, 2008 2:57am
Quoting sonicdeejay
http://forexfactory.com/attachment.p...1&d=1219498665

Are you thinking that GBP/USD could go lower, breaking the support?? I wanna know ur oponion...
If there is a gap down on monday,i will long the pair till the gap is filled....

sonic'
Bundy just abt said it all...he rarely allows anybody else to take the seat...

just to add on i am not yet ready for a short ofcoarse long term or short term, this was just something i noticed with many usd pairs, PAs in nearly all of them showing some nice strong dollar signs,

i thus don't yet expect it to break the support like butter (oooh! my english! nice work Jarroo ) not to say it can't.. it may have just hinted a reluctance to go up, but as Bundy said trade what the market tells you not what i say or feel because the fact is that the market does'nt care one bit what ghous says or who the hell Bundy thinks he is or Jarroo's smart analysis, or Sl's deep and wise words...it goes where it wants to...don't let any silly human's words help you decide on where something as unpredictable and as independant as price is going...

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #13,023
  • Aug 24, 2008 3:22am Aug 24, 2008 3:22am
Here's one trade I'm planning for the coming week. NZD/USD finished as another pin this week (bearish this time), so I'm going to close my long at about break even and look to short. This pin is in line with current downtrend. To get a better price than taking the break of the weekly pin, I'm hoping to enter on a retrace of the daily BEOB if possible. Any opinions on this one?
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  • #13,024
  • Aug 24, 2008 3:39am Aug 24, 2008 3:39am
Quoting Betard
Here's one trade I'm planning for the coming week. NZD/USD finished as another pin this week (bearish this time), so I'm going to close my long at about break even and look to short. This pin is in line with current downtrend. To get a better price than taking the break of the weekly pin, I'm hoping to enter on a retrace of the daily BEOB if possible. Any opinions on this one?
ok let me first tell you that i am in long Nu as well and have no plans of closing atleast not for some time...

coming down to your idea of a short...

fine the previous trend was down, it was even strong bearish momentum which i love...but...the second last pin that you see was just abt a perfect pin indicating that the bears have lost there way, if you ask me that pin is far from just an indication of a tiny retrcament (that you seem to be intepreting this bullish move as...) besides it was a pin kissing a very long term support line plus an important ppz,

PA is still very much in favor of an uptrend...

coming to this pin you are interested upon, you mentioned a ppz (i see in your charts as a blue line) note however that it is not as important as the ppz on the support line which created the first pin...so...were you actually expecting price to see through this res ppz like thin air?? whenever price finds itself around imprortant price levels it's bound to react in some way, this is often mistaken to be a real bounce...

your idea may not be wrong ofcaorse and perhaps what you say is exactly how price will react, it's just that i would'nt call that "normal" after you see a pin as great as the one on Nu around long term support, you have to bet that bears have nothing to say for some time atleast, but again that does'nt mean they won't be around, (the pin you see now may well confirm this last statment)

i look upon this latest pin to the ppz as just a normal reaction pf price given that it's in contact with a ppz minor or major a ppz is a ppz...

Regards,
Ghous.
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I believe . . .
  • #13,025
  • Aug 24, 2008 3:47am Aug 24, 2008 3:47am
Another setup for next week. Two day pin bar (as far as I know) for EUR/USD at weekly PPZ. Would the correct move be to put sell stop 10 pips or so below the first bar's low (bullish one)? I'm assuming this is correct but I don't know too much about 2 day pins. I'm in favor of shorting this pair over some others (GBP, JPY) because it looks like there's not much support until 1.44. Opinions are always welcome, I'm still learning this.
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  • #13,026
  • Aug 24, 2008 3:56am Aug 24, 2008 3:56am
Quoting Betard
Another setup for next week. Two day pin bar (as far as I know) for EUR/USD at weekly PPZ. Would the correct move be to put sell stop 10 pips or so below the first bar's low (bullish one)? I'm assuming this is correct but I don't know too much about 2 day pins. I'm in favor of shorting this pair over some others (GBP, JPY) because it looks like there's not much support until 1.44. Opinions are always welcome, I'm still learning this.
you are making the same mistake with EU as the one with NU, read my earlier post...

EU is still on a very strong support line, shorting may once again not be a very good idea...

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #13,027
  • Aug 24, 2008 4:11am Aug 24, 2008 4:11am
EURUSD gave a BUOB a few days ago which hasn't been negated yet so I personally would not trade against that bar by shorting.

NZDUSD gave a much better pin bar long which was at a swing low so I also would not trade against that.

Dollar strength has been very strong though so I can see why you want to be a dollar bull. The strong trend may indeed cut through the former bullish setups.


Quoting Betard
Another setup for next week. Two day pin bar (as far as I know) for EUR/USD at weekly PPZ. Would the correct move be to put sell stop 10 pips or so below the first bar's low (bullish one)? I'm assuming this is correct but I don't know too much about 2 day pins. I'm in favor of shorting this pair over some others (GBP, JPY) because it looks like there's not much support until 1.44. Opinions are always welcome, I'm still learning this.
  • #13,028
  • Aug 24, 2008 4:25am Aug 24, 2008 4:25am
Quoting Betard
Another setup for next week. Two day pin bar (as far as I know) for EUR/USD at weekly PPZ. Would the correct move be to put sell stop 10 pips or so below the first bar's low (bullish one)? I'm assuming this is correct but I don't know too much about 2 day pins. I'm in favor of shorting this pair over some others (GBP, JPY) because it looks like there's not much support until 1.44. Opinions are always welcome, I'm still learning this.
That's off a rather large PPZone on the Weekly. Tighter PPZ are more responsive.

Your indicating the RESistence level on your chart.


(Chart 2)

2 bars (candles) Pin Bars look like this. (2 Day PB on Oil Daily). Noitce that 1st candle's Open and the 2nd candle's Close has to be within the previous two candles.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #13,029
  • Aug 24, 2008 4:50am Aug 24, 2008 4:50am
hi betard, there are 2 opposing pins in NZDUSD weekly but only one is in the perfect place, that is the long one, the same setup happened a few days back with another pair and the pin that was in the perfect place won the battle
  • #13,030
  • Aug 24, 2008 4:56am Aug 24, 2008 4:56am
Thanks for the responses guys I don't mind the criticism. Guess I misunderstood PPZ a bit, yeah I guess that's a RES zone. I see there's support on NZD, that's why I hope to get in on a retrace of BEOB so I can get out around 0.69 if things don't look good. I don't see so much support for EUR/USD but I could be missing something.

Until I see a higher low and a break of the recent swing highs on the daily charts (or at least another good bullish reversal bar at a good fib level) I'm looking more for reasons to short these pairs since my aim is to trade with the current daily/weekly trend.
  • #13,031
  • Aug 24, 2008 5:01am Aug 24, 2008 5:01am
Quoting ghous
EU is still on a very strong support line
I don't see it. But I can see us being under a strong resistance line(=>attached updated EURUSD chart, same one I posted before) which would have been a good place to take some profit.

IMHO betard's 1.44 area with the TL and then 1.43/1.425 is the next place I can see, but there's really nothing "big" until 1.34-1.35ish, more at around 1.29-1.3.
But that's looking at monthly =)

1.4350 is most likely a "must reach" target near term.
All of this is just wild speculation on my behalf, but it fits really well with the general idea of "a trend tends to go on further than anyone would expect of it".
And so far the moves have been "trending", even if we're not past all TLs on all pairs yet to technically term it / justify calling it a change of trend on the USD. All I know is the direction has changed to pro-USD, and if that persists, then it will by itself turn into a trend.

Personally I hope there will still be a larger bounce coming at some point, if only to give an opportunity for the other side to have a go, and for those still secretly bullish USD folks to get a new shot at a better entry - if they can find one.
1.49 looks like a good flip/decision point here for either side.
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Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #13,032
  • Aug 24, 2008 5:13am Aug 24, 2008 5:13am
Quoting SeekingLight
I don't see it. But I can see us being under a strong resistance line(=>attached updated EURUSD chart, same one I posted before) which would have been a good place to take some profit.

IMHO betard's 1.44 area with the TL and then 1.43/1.425 is the next place I can see, but there's really nothing "big" until 1.34-1.35ish, more at around 1.29-1.3.
But that's looking at monthly =)

1.4350 is most likely a "must reach" target near term.
All of this is just wild speculation on my behalf, but it fits really well with the general idea of "a trend tends to go on further than anyone would expect of it".
And so far the moves have been "trending", even if we're not past all TLs on all pairs yet to technically term it / justify calling it a change of trend on the USD. All I know is the direction has changed to pro-USD, and if that persists, then it will by itself turn into a trend.

Personally I hope there will still be a larger bounce coming at some point, if only to give an opportunity for the other side to have a go, and for those still secretly bullish USD folks to get a new shot at a better entry - if they can find one.
1.49 looks like a good flip/decision point here for either side.
this is the trendline i was referring to, had this trendline not been there all of the stuf you posted was valid, but this TL seems to be a nice source of support, atleast uptill now...but i agree though that there is strong res too...
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I believe . . .
  • #13,033
  • Aug 24, 2008 5:29am Aug 24, 2008 5:29am
Quoting ghous
Does this kind of a setup take up some plcae in James 16's grand book of PA indications??

usd/cad is in a very nice place at the moment, it seems to have nicely bounced over a very long term resistance line, could this PA indication (if it is...) make the case any stronger??
Ghous, you mentioned on one of yousr charts DBLLC, but in that case the close (green bar) was higher that the close of the previous bar. So, that would make it DBLHC...
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #13,034
  • Aug 24, 2008 5:43am Aug 24, 2008 5:43am
Quoting ghous
this is the trendline i was referring to, had this trendline not been there all of the stuf you posted was valid, but this TL seems to be a nice source of support, atleast uptill now...but i agree though that there is strong res too...
It's a top connecting trendline. The only use they have for me is on retest directly after the break before the takeoff.
Once price has taken off and comes back, they become insignificant to me.
Why would they be relevant for (longer term)support if they weren't a support line to begin with?
From everything I know and have seen, buying is structured about low connecting trendlines.

Find me one, on any pair, that didn't eventually break again once price came back after a longer excursion
It's one thing if these coincide with real s/r lines or other items, but as a valid trendline trade I wouldn't put much faith in it under the described setting.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #13,035
  • Aug 24, 2008 5:51am Aug 24, 2008 5:51am
Quoting SeekingLight
It's a top connecting trendline. The only use they have for me is on retest directly after the break before the takeoff.
Once price has taken off and comes back, they become insignificant to me.
Why would they be relevant for (longer term)support if they weren't a support line to begin with?
From everything I know and have seen, buying is structured about low connecting trendlines.

Find me one, on any pair, that didn't eventually break again once price came back after a longer excursion
It's one thing if these coincide with real s/r lines or other items, but as a valid trendline trade I wouldn't put much faith in it under the described setting.
Then why exactly is it true that a supporting horizontal line can well provide resistance? as i see it any line that can provide res or support is eually good to be used for either,

There are a million examples where it can easily be concluded that support lines can provide resistance equally well...

Regrads,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #13,036
  • Aug 24, 2008 5:52am Aug 24, 2008 5:52am
Quoting Forex007
Ghous, you mentioned on one of yousr charts DBLLC, but in that case the close (green bar) was higher that the close of the previous bar. So, that would make it DBLHC...
oh! need help jarroo...
I believe . . .
  • #13,037
  • Aug 24, 2008 5:55am Aug 24, 2008 5:55am
Quoting ghous
oh! need help jarroo...
I am enclosing that chart
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One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #13,038
  • Aug 24, 2008 6:13am Aug 24, 2008 6:13am
Quoting Forex007
Ghous, you mentioned on one of yousr charts DBLLC, but in that case the close (green bar) was higher that the close of the previous bar. So, that would make it DBLHC...
I think this is called "2 matching lows" or something like that, and when the low gets breached you can go short (could be wrong though). This is the only pair where I'm looking to short USD. I don't know why it's behaving differently from other currencies right now but I don't care lol. I'm looking for a little move up followed by a good reversal bar below 1.065 to take the trade. Not much resistance until 1.0325 from what I can see.
  • #13,039
  • Edited 9:11am Aug 24, 2008 6:15am | Edited 9:11am
Quoting ghous
Then why exactly is it true that a supporting horizontal line can well provide resistance?
You can't argue reasons for one type of technical tool to justify another type.
Horizontal S/R works simply because that's how market structure gets built. You needn't look further than a single day for x amount of examples.

Demand/supply lines work, because that's how they work. As I've tried to outline, if there's a REAL buyer TL, why would you suddenly start using a former SELL line, that has no history whatsoever supporting price long term. It makes no sense to me at all.

The s/r flip for TLs occurs at the point of "passage" imho and sometimes the next couple of bars, and that's then it.


Quote
as i see it any line that can provide res or support is eually good to be used for either,
IMHO TLs work in the manner described, while s/r works as s/r.

Quote
There are a million examples where it can easily be concluded that support lines can provide resistance equally well...
If TLs are meant: I fail to know/see any examples for this type of behavior as described.
The functionality of flipped resistance TLs as real turning points a second time after they've been retested and left behind is just an allegation until you can show me that they're valid turning points for price in real world examples - after it's taken off for a longer period of time and come back - and not just bounces. And by turning points I mean real swingpoints.


But since this is all getting confrontational - anyone is free to believe what they want. I am going to stop arguing something I feel I have a valid reason for believing. I've stopped giving these "left behind, flipped" lines much importance after seeing them simply getting pushed out of the way basically every time.
Therefore I will continue to believe what I believe until I see reproduceable, repeatable and functional proof of a different type of behavior.

IMHO the trick is to find items of interest that have a turning around potential on the chart rather than smaller obstructions, and these type of TLs just do not qualify as such in my book.
I choose so because I've found reasons for it in the past - not out of spite or for sake of argument.
If someone can show and convince me otherwise with according background and proof, then sure, by all means. Until then I have to stick with what I feel is right.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #13,040
  • Aug 24, 2008 6:23am Aug 24, 2008 6:23am
Quoting Betard
I don't know why it's behaving differently from other currencies right now but I don't care lol.
EURCAD weekly PB 2 weeks ago triggered and moved around 500 pips lower. Part of it will more push down EURUSD at times, part of it may come from more USDCAD lower emphasis. Usually it's the crosses that mess around with the others. AUDNZD moving lower with NZDUSD PB and AUDUSD getting hurt is another such example.

But that's all in the realm of the Equinox
Trust price. Know yourself.
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