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150-200 pip/month without technical indicators.

  • #221
  • Aug 22, 2008 9:36pm Aug 22, 2008 9:36pm
Quoting tdion
and "good trading" to you as well.... you'll need it.

by the way, i think my comment about "proving nothing" is very constructive, because it negates your overly confident assessment of the strategy after 20 trading days.
I offer support to maya for the thread and the method. She follows a plan with rules and shows discipline. now that is proof enough as she is miles above most posters and traders on this forum.

Have moved to PM Tdion, as this banter is off topic and wreaking the thread.

good trading.......
  • #222
  • Aug 23, 2008 3:01am Aug 23, 2008 3:01am
Quoting la_maya_k
It's a rather rough week, am stopped out for the second time this week. So the attempt for 50 will continue on Monday. Have a good weekend everyone.
One thing that many fail to realize is the market changes all the time. It changes it's momentum, it's range size, sometimes it trends, sometimes it's dead and sometimes it bounces like a ball. The point is, a set strategy has to be changed to adapt to the changing conditions in the market. MM is very vitale but if your winning percentage does not keep in in the black, then MM will only be there to slow the process of draining an account. You must win more than you lose to make money in this market. Another thing is you can not expect to have the same return everymonth. It's just not realistic in my opinion. I do recommend learning price action and not indicator action. I was blessed to have been taught this by a very good teacher and it has made all the difference in the world in my trading. Of course, I must adhere to MM to preserve my capital. The whole point is to live to trade another day. Then live day by day. Your dreams will be realized if you take that approach.

Regards,
  • #223
  • Aug 23, 2008 2:22pm Aug 23, 2008 2:22pm
Quoting 4X4EVER
You must win more than you lose to make money in this market.
Not necessarily true...if you mean more wins than losses

For example, let's say the risk to reward ratio is a ratio of 1 to 3. Suppose the SL = 20, and the TP = 60. With these odds you can lose 2/3rd's of the time and still make an overall profit (on average, 20 pips every three trades).

With Maya's strategy, the risk to reward ratio is 1 to 2. She will still break even despite losing two out of three trades on average (disregarding broker spread for the moment) irrespective of any money management application.

Both risk to reward and winning percentage must be considered in order to determine the true viability and consequent profitability of a trading system. I simply derive a mathematical coefficient by multiplying the risk to reward ratio times the winiing percentage to achieve a quick but effective method of evaluating systems. Simple, quick and easy to do yourself. Maybe someone else is also making this quick comparison? Probably so..I just haven't seen it posted anywhere.
  • #224
  • Aug 23, 2008 5:15pm Aug 23, 2008 5:15pm
hey bobcat what's new man? you making some profit (here, there, and yonder?)
  • #225
  • Aug 23, 2008 6:47pm Aug 23, 2008 6:47pm
Tdion,

I have been profitable in two general forex trading areas over the past 4 years.

1) Trade the News:
For sure, Tom Yeomans had developed a great trading strategy that eventually was unwittingly ruined by Dimitri (Felix Homogratus). Up until that time, we were clearly making great profits with Tom. Now, most current news trading strategies today revolve around some sort of retracement before entry. I'll admit that I can't seem to adopt this methodology to my advantage. If there are those of you who really are successful at this, please let me know.

2) Breakout/Straddle:
Tdion, you are correct in having some skepticism regarding these systems as they seem to surface and are successful for a season, but most do not successfully adapt themselves to changing market conditions.

I honestly feel that Maya has successfully addressed many of the relevant issues relating to this type of trading:
A. Since we are straddling the market price, we don't care which way the market moves. We will take a profit either way.
B. The risk to reward ratio is favorable @ 1 to 2. We can lose two out of three trades and still break even (spread not considered).
C. The 50 pip TP is generally not too much to ask for the GBP/USD to move on a given day.
D. Maya is avoiding trading during the Frankfurt open, the London open, news reports @ 830 GMT and 1230 GMT with her "box". She is not intent on catching the wild price swings with this time frame, but rather a more neutral time of market movement. Conversely, if that movement does not transpire, her narrow, roughly 3 hour expiry for her pending trades seems to act as a filter to keep us out of ranging markets.
E, Even when we lose, it's only 20 pips. It's not even that, when the price moves 30-33 pips in our favor, because we move the Stop Loss to break-even. Here's where Tom Yeoman's currency meter helps a lot. If I'm awake I will continue to use a manual trailing stop so long as the meter shows me that the pound is much stronger than the dollar on a buy trade, and vice versa on a sell. When the relative strength of the two currencies starts to even out, I can close my trade for more pips than if I were to simply wait for the price to retrace to an arbitrary stop loss position.
F. Maya's Money Management is indeed different from any others I have seen. She has stated that the worst string of losses with backtesting has been eight. Her money management for consecutive losses appears to extend to 14 trades before an account is blown...so there is a certain amount of safety built into the strategy. I know it could happen, but I haver NEVER had more than eight consecutive losses no matter what strategy I have been trading. How about you?

I believe there are some adjustments that can be made to enhance this system, but for now, I want to keep trading it according to Maya's rules for a few months, before instituting any material changes. One thing I have to do is to exercise less discretion (follow the rules more strictly) while trading, although my "meddling" with the system benefitted me last week.

Tdion, could you share with us what trading strategies have worked well for you?

Much appreciated.
  • #226
  • Aug 24, 2008 1:07am Aug 24, 2008 1:07am
For mine the problem is with F. ie MM.

1/. You must never ever chase losses. In effect with a TP of 50 you are letting your losses run and cutting your profits short.
2/. Whilst you may have other reasons for doing it, it does not make sense to stop trading for the rest of the week after a TP of 50. In effect you stop trading on what has been a good week and keep trading on a bad week.

Has anyone back tested the idea of missing the London open? Most ideas I've seen revolve around catching.
Good Trading
  • #227
  • Aug 24, 2008 6:58pm Aug 24, 2008 6:58pm
Quoting aud
For mine the problem is with F. ie MM.

1/. You must never ever chase losses. In effect with a TP of 50 you are letting your losses run and cutting your profits short.
2/. Whilst you may have other reasons for doing it, it does not make sense to stop trading for the rest of the week after a TP of 50. In effect you stop trading on what has been a good week and keep trading on a bad week.

Has anyone back tested the idea of missing the London open? Most ideas I've seen revolve around catching.
Hi Aud,

Sorry...nothing personal, but I don't agree with your assessment.

1. A 50 pip weekly TP is, in fact, a reasonable goal. Most strategies yield far less than 50 pips per week. If we know the market almost always moves 50 pips from the breakout point once a week, then this becomes a relatively safe goal, given this limitation. In fact, if you will guarantee me just 1 pip per week profit, I will be a millionaire within a month!

However, if I am able to be awake during a strong market movement, I will keep moving the TP higher and use a manual trailing stop loss, in order to maximize profits. The reason I don't do this more often is that I AM asleep during these trading hours; that's why this strategy performs well for me as both a "set and forget" system as well as a closely managed system, when I have the opportunity.

2. The reason we stop trading during the week when we achieve 50 pips is also key to Maya's strategy. Yes, we do have all week to catch the 50 pips which generally occurs during the first two trading days of the week. But,could/should we try to make even more? Perhaps this is less a dilemma if the 50 pip movement occurs less frequently than you would surmise. Maybe, on average, the movement only occurs once or maybe twice a week given the "box" trading period and the narrow entry timeframe for pending orders? If this is the case, then we are completely justified in terminating trades for the week, once we achieve 50 pips profit...we are lessening risk. As a matter of fact, Maya has stated that whenever she reenters the market after gaining 50 pips, she almost always gives it back in a loss. Her experience in trading this system gives further support for this supposition.

Lastly, please beware relying on conventional forex wisdom...that mindset has virtually guaranteed losses for newbies.

Good luck in your trading!
  • #228
  • Aug 25, 2008 3:52am Aug 25, 2008 3:52am
well almost 5pm here...time to get ready...
  • #229
  • Aug 25, 2008 4:57am Aug 25, 2008 4:57am
I have already moved my stoploss to breakeven now, have moved as far as +38 pips.
  • #230
  • Edited 5:49am Aug 25, 2008 5:04am | Edited 5:49am
BobCat/Micro, how are you guys faring? I should explain how come I was already in trade. I spoke about how days like these when the first hour in the morning there's a big move, and I might like to count the high/low without taking into account 8-9 am. So I've taken a buy trade at 1.8480, and it went up to 38 pips before it came back down to hit my stop loss at breakeven. No loss today, no gain either.
  • #231
  • Aug 25, 2008 5:56am Aug 25, 2008 5:56am
Quoting Bobcat2
..........I simply derive a mathematical coefficient by multiplying the risk to reward ratio times the winiing percentage to achieve a quick but effective method of evaluating systems. Simple, quick and easy to do yourself. Maybe someone else is also making this quick comparison? Probably so. I just haven't seen it posted anywhere.
Bobcat, IMHO you are correct in considering both win rate and win size. It's also called "expectancy" or "profit factor" and is built into MT4's system tester. More info here.

[Edit] I also agree that "pips per week" is effectively meaningless, for the following reasons:
i) It's easier to make (and lose) pips on a more volatile pair (e.g. GBPJPY) than one with a smaller daily range (e.g. EURUSD).
ii) Risk must also be considered. Example: System A has to risk 100 pips to make 50 pips. System B risks 10 pips to make 30 pips. Everything else (e.g. win rate) being equal, B is the superior system. In other words, it brings us back to considering expectancy.
iii) There are different ways of counting pips, especially if one is scaling in/out of positions. Where these positions overlap, many vendors promote their systems by counting all pips gathered, i.e. the same pips in the move may be counted multiple times.

David
  • #232
  • Aug 25, 2008 6:03am Aug 25, 2008 6:03am
Hi Maya,

This was my first loss in trading with you over the past three weeks. I may have to switch brokers. On Oanda, my BUY order @ 1.8511 was filled, but only advanced 13 pips before retracing for a loss on the 1050 GMT candle. This seems far different from your results as you were able to move your Stop Loss to break even after more than 30 pips price movement.

Anyway, I have been looking forward to trying your money management approach after a loss, to regain those lost pips plus 50! LOL

Maybe I miscalculated...at what price was your BUY order filled?
  • #233
  • Aug 25, 2008 6:07am Aug 25, 2008 6:07am
Quoting la_maya_k
BobCat/Micro, how are you guys faring? I should explain how come I was already in trade. I spoke about how days like these when the first hour in the morning there's a big move, and I might like to count the high/low without taking into account 8-9 am. So I've taken a buy trade at 1.8480, and it went up to 38 pips before it came back down to hit my stop loss at breakeven. No loss today, no gain either.
kinda confused a little bit...xplain pls..

edit: okay i think i got it..thanks...
  • #234
  • Aug 25, 2008 7:25am Aug 25, 2008 7:25am
Quoting la_maya_k
BobCat/Micro, how are you guys faring? I should explain how come I was already in trade. I spoke about how days like these when the first hour in the morning there's a big move, and I might like to count the high/low without taking into account 8-9 am. So I've taken a buy trade at 1.8480, and it went up to 38 pips before it came back down to hit my stop loss at breakeven. No loss today, no gain either.
Maya,

Funny thing...I was skeptical about trading last night on three accounts:
1) that big 8-9AM candle
2) the bank holiday
3) I just don't seem to trade very well on Sunday night/Monday morning

I guess I was so bleary-eyed that I didn't remember your reasoning for eliminating the 8-9AM candle...bit I sure do now! It's funny how a 25 pip loss will help me remember better! LOL

I am not counting this as a loss since my trade did not follow your previously stated rule. Micro, did you break-even or did you forget Maya's rule, too?

Question: Should the 8-9AM candle simply be eliminated from the "box" if it is problematic? Didn't this occur twice in the past three weeks?
  • #235
  • Aug 25, 2008 7:27am Aug 25, 2008 7:27am
Quoting hanover
Bobcat, IMHO you are correct in considering both win rate and win size. It's also called "expectancy" or "profit factor" and is built into MT4's system tester. More info here.

[Edit] I also agree that "pips per week" is effectively meaningless, for the following reasons:
i) It's easier to make (and lose) pips on a more volatile pair (e.g. GBPJPY) than one with a smaller daily range (e.g. EURUSD).
ii) Risk must also be considered. Example: System A has to risk 100 pips to make 50 pips. System B risks 10 pips to make 30 pips. Everything else (e.g. win rate) being equal, B is the superior system. In other words, it brings us back to considering expectancy.
iii) There are different ways of counting pips, especially if one is scaling in/out of positions. Where these positions overlap, many vendors promote their systems by counting all pips gathered, i.e. the same pips in the move may be counted multiple times.

David
Hey David,

Thanks for the info...much appreciated!
  • #236
  • Aug 25, 2008 7:37am Aug 25, 2008 7:37am
Quoting Bobcat2
Maya,

Funny thing...I was skeptical about trading last night on three accounts:
1) that big 8-9AM candle
2) the bank holiday
3) I just don't seem to trade very well on Sunday night/Monday morning

I guess I was so bleary-eyed that I didn't remember your reasoning for eliminating the 8-9AM candle...bit I sure do now! It's funny how a 25 pip loss will help me remember better! LOL

I am not counting this as a loss since my trade did not follow your previously stated rule. Micro, did you break-even or did you forget Maya's rule, too?

Question: Should the 8-9AM candle simply be eliminated from the "box" if it is problematic? Didn't this occur twice in the past three weeks?
totally forgot bout maya's new trick hehehe...so -25..
  • #237
  • Aug 25, 2008 8:17am Aug 25, 2008 8:17am
Yea, it's not a very straightforward day, so I guess it's one of those things we need to iron out. So I did a little cheating today, my apologies. I didn't want to post it beforehand because it is my own testing, therefore did not want to jeopardize anyone else.

My first trade, was disregarding the big first hour candle, therefore I opened a buy trade at 1.8480, it moved close to 40 pips before coming down to hit the SL at breakeven.

Considering I broke even that trade, and the price was approaching the actual high of the day (including the first hour candle) I wanted to see whether trading with this high/low channel might work too. But sorry BobCat, I came to that trade only after the retracement you suffered took place, for that's when my first trade got stopped out. So I caught the second wave up, trailed the price and have just got out with 24 pips profit.

Note: this part is for my own testing purposes to find out what to do on days like these with big first hour candles.

But BobCat, I do think it's safer to count out the first hour candle if it's too big, what's your opinion?
  • #238
  • Aug 25, 2008 12:56pm Aug 25, 2008 12:56pm
Quoting la_maya_k
Yea, it's not a very straightforward day, so I guess it's one of those things we need to iron out. So I did a little cheating today, my apologies. I didn't want to post it beforehand because it is my own testing, therefore did not want to jeopardize anyone else.

My first trade, was disregarding the big first hour candle, therefore I opened a buy trade at 1.8480, it moved close to 40 pips before coming down to hit the SL at breakeven.

Considering I broke even that trade, and the price was approaching the actual high of the day (including the first hour candle) I wanted to see whether trading with this high/low channel might work too. But sorry BobCat, I came to that trade only after the retracement you suffered took place, for that's when my first trade got stopped out. So I caught the second wave up, trailed the price and have just got out with 24 pips profit.

Note: this part is for my own testing purposes to find out what to do on days like these with big first hour candles.

But BobCat, I do think it's safer to count out the first hour candle if it's too big, what's your opinion?
Yes...I agree. I think it all goes back to having a box that is too large to expect the G/U to move another 50 pips. What is that threshold? I know I get a bit uncomfortable when it starts to exceed 100 pips. On the low side, when the box is less than 60 or so, it may be "telling us" that the market is ranging. Either condition may be conducive to keeping us on the sidelines for trading that day. As for yesterday, trading on a Sunday with a British holiday the next day was probably a low % win possibility in the first place.

So, Maya, at what point do we disregard the 8-9 AM candle as being too large? Should we eliminate it from your "box" altogether?

In the future, may I ask you to post on this thread when you determine to eliminate the 8-9AM candle from the box?

Have a great day!
  • #239
  • Aug 25, 2008 7:18pm Aug 25, 2008 7:18pm
Eliminate it altogether? I think we can do that from now on. Alot of the times the first hour candle does not determine the edge of the day's channel, and even when it does, is this big candle which we're trying to disregard.

So let's not count it at all. So please take note, everyone, box should be drawn from 9am-5pm GMT+8.

Quoting Bobcat2
...
So, Maya, at what point do we disregard the 8-9 AM candle as being too large? Should we eliminate it from your "box" altogether?

In the future, may I ask you to post on this thread when you determine to eliminate the 8-9AM candle from the box?

Have a great day!
  • #240
  • Aug 25, 2008 7:50pm Aug 25, 2008 7:50pm
Quoting la_maya_k
Eliminate it altogether? I think we can do that from now on. Alot of the times the first hour candle does not determine the edge of the day's channel, and even when it does, is this big candle which we're trying to disregard.

So let's not count it at all. So please take note, everyone, box should be drawn from 9am-5pm GMT+8.
aye aye captain!!
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