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Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading

  • #1,301
  • Aug 22, 2008 7:04am Aug 22, 2008 7:04am
Lets see if Bernanke speech makes some action...
  • #1,302
  • Aug 22, 2008 7:20am Aug 22, 2008 7:20am
Short eud/chf at 1.6230. The divergence is moving in between +0.23 and +0.31 since 2 hrs ago.
  • #1,303
  • Aug 22, 2008 7:27am Aug 22, 2008 7:27am
I'm planning to take my first and second position around 1.6250. If we never get there, i'll only take one position around 1.6220.
  • #1,304
  • Aug 22, 2008 7:53am Aug 22, 2008 7:53am
Quoting Peikko
I'll wait until 1.6250 -1.6260 area. Theres no resistance before that level. Not by the book, but trying to make good decisions.
According to my chart we are at the resistance right now (late July and August 12). Either we break it or not. I am also waiting to see what happens.

To SwingMan: thank you for all the work you do in this thread. You are not obligated to programm anything for anybody, and yet you contribute so much. Its part of joy of life to see how generous some talented people are!

Thanks again, Mr. Spieler and SwingMan.
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  • #1,305
  • Aug 22, 2008 8:00am Aug 22, 2008 8:00am
Quoting lietuve
According to my chart we are at the resistance right now (late July and August 12). Either we break it or not. I am also waiting to see what happens.
Yes there's a some resistance now. I was pointing to pivots and Fibs.
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  • #1,306
  • Aug 22, 2008 8:08am Aug 22, 2008 8:08am
162.40 i am in short 1lot pace is slow now
  • #1,307
  • Aug 22, 2008 8:22am Aug 22, 2008 8:22am
Thanks, I see what you mean.
I am looking at the bigger picture now - then whole eur move down from the top. According to that we are at 50% fibo - if this is broken, the possibility of eur going higher increases. (it is not the part of Spieler's method so everybody, please, don't give much significance to this exchange of opinions).
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  • #1,308
  • Aug 22, 2008 8:26am Aug 22, 2008 8:26am
Quoting spieler
162.40 i am in short 1lot pace is slow now
Did the same at 1.6241
  • #1,309
  • Aug 22, 2008 8:32am Aug 22, 2008 8:32am
Quoting lietuve
Thanks, I see what you mean.
I am looking at the bigger picture now - then whole eur move down from the top. According to that we are at 50% fibo - if this is broken, the possibility of eur going higher increases. (it is not the part of Spieler's method so everybody, please, don't give much significance to this exchange of opinions).
You are right, i missed the big picture. I was also looking short term EURUSD & USDCHF and there was also room to on going direction.
  • #1,310
  • Aug 22, 2008 8:44am Aug 22, 2008 8:44am
Quoting Peikko
You are right, i missed the big picture. I was also looking short term EURUSD & USDCHF and there was also room to on going direction.
nobody knows who is right. But looking even at the bigger picture - from the previous eurchf range - I see 61.8% level right now. That's too much of resisstance to ignore!

So I am in (the more sell lots we accumulate - the bigger profits later...).
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  • #1,311
  • Aug 22, 2008 8:53am Aug 22, 2008 8:53am
Quoting lietuve
nobody knows who is right. But looking even at the bigger picture - from the previous eurchf range - I see 61.8% level right now. That's too much of resisstance to ignore!

So I am in (the more sell lots we accumulate - the bigger profits later...).
Yep, it seems that the speed is slowing down and i took also one position short.
  • #1,312
  • Aug 22, 2008 8:59am Aug 22, 2008 8:59am
Quoting lietuve
nobody knows who is right. But looking even at the bigger picture - from the previous eurchf range - I see 61.8% level right now. That's too much of resisstance to ignore!

So I am in (the more sell lots we accumulate - the bigger profits later...).
Btw, what is that CCF indicator that you use and how to use it? And could you please share it ?
  • #1,313
  • Aug 22, 2008 9:19am Aug 22, 2008 9:19am
Quoting Peikko
Btw, what is that CCF indicator that you use and how to use it? And could you please share it ?
With pleasure.
That's an indicator to measure convergencies/divergencies btw all major currencies, created by very talented russian programmer Rambler (don't know his real name). In the inputs window I adjusted it to display just 3 currencies I am interested in: usd, chf, eur. More about it you can find in forums at onix-trade.net.
I use it to get a feel of a big picture (it seems I like big pictures a lot!).

enjoy!
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  • #1,314
  • Aug 22, 2008 9:25am Aug 22, 2008 9:25am
Quoting lietuve
With pleasure.
That's an indicator to measure convergencies/divergencies btw all major currencies, created by very talented russian programmer Rambler (don't know his real name). In the inputs window I adjusted it to display just 3 currencies I am interested in: usd, chf, eur. More about it you can find in forums at onix-trade.net.
I use it to get a feel of a big picture (it seems I like big pictures a lot!).

enjoy!
It' always good to see big picture

Thanks a lot!
  • #1,315
  • Aug 22, 2008 10:11am Aug 22, 2008 10:11am
+3SDs now about 1.6265, not 1.6254, because accumulation of price values over last several hours has become more positive, and with it the bias (slant) of median line and SD levels, although overall still pretty horizontal. So, as things stand at the moment, at 1.6265 I will enter second position. Spieler, my entry technique is a variant of yours. Of course, the hedging strategy is the same. If you like I will refrain from making any additional posts about my entries and exits. Pippo
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #1,316
  • Aug 22, 2008 10:22am Aug 22, 2008 10:22am
Quoting Pippopotamus
+3SDs now about 1.6265, not 1.6254, because accumulation of price values over last several hours has become more positive, and with it the bias (slant) of median line and SD levels, although overall still pretty horizontal. So, as things stand at the moment, at 1.6265 I will enter second position. Spieler, my entry technique is a variant of yours. Of course, the hedging strategy is the same. If you like I will refrain from making any additional posts about my entries and exits. Pippo
Which indicator do you use? I read about some sort of regression channel.
Is it you?
  • #1,317
  • Aug 22, 2008 10:23am Aug 22, 2008 10:23am
pippo
you are very welcome to post your entries even if dont really understand everything
  • #1,318
  • Edited 1:29pm Aug 22, 2008 12:21pm | Edited 1:29pm
A linear regression line. Standard deviations away from this line are drawn to produce upper and lower bands, a channel. Ps. bennyFX, have you read thread?
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #1,319
  • Aug 22, 2008 10:15pm Aug 22, 2008 10:15pm
Hi All,

I have read to page 50 and at times I think because of the different languages spoken, terms of art or words create misunderstanding.

Spieler, thank you for sharing your experiences and methods and to all the others that have an continue to contribute thank you as well!.

While in the end I might make use of the wonderful indicators generously offered, I make it a point to be completely informed about a method and to be able to confirm that and tool that I use, provide the proper values and or actions.

From the very beginning of this thread, I have been trying to understand the divergence (as I understand it), looking for the two or more pairs that would be the sources of measurement. I have not. While I may be confused and or do not understand what has been shared to page 50 of the thread, I thought it best to request some help , to gain clarity.

If I understand it correctly...

1.The hedged position is made up of the USDCHF and EURUSD pairs.
2.That together then would be bought or sold simultaneously.
3. That no trades take place on EURCHF.
4. That EURCHF is in part what is used to determine when to get in and out.
5. The timing of the trades might be premature and additional positions are taken, based up fixed price movements.
6. That the additional positions have set exit points.

If the above is correct, I do not understand #4 the divergence and where the math is applied. If you would....please lay it out as follows.

USDCHF*2-EUR-USD / EURCHF (example).

Thanks for the boost!
BR
  • #1,320
  • Aug 24, 2008 4:38pm Aug 24, 2008 4:38pm
Quoting Big1red9
Hi All,

I have read to page 50 and at times I think because of the different languages spoken, terms of art or words create misunderstanding.

Spieler, thank you for sharing your experiences and methods and to all the others that have an continue to contribute thank you as well!.

While in the end I might make use of the wonderful indicators generously offered, I make it a point to be completely informed about a method and to be able to confirm that and tool that I use, provide the proper values and or actions.

From the very beginning of this thread, I have been trying to understand the divergence (as I understand it), looking for the two or more pairs that would be the sources of measurement. I have not. While I may be confused and or do not understand what has been shared to page 50 of the thread, I thought it best to request some help , to gain clarity.

If I understand it correctly...

1.The hedged position is made up of the USDCHF and EURUSD pairs.
2.That together then would be bought or sold simultaneously.
3. That no trades take place on EURCHF.
4. That EURCHF is in part what is used to determine when to get in and out.
5. The timing of the trades might be premature and additional positions are taken, based up fixed price movements.
6. That the additional positions have set exit points.

If the above is correct, I do not understand #4 the divergence and where the math is applied. If you would....please lay it out as follows.

USDCHF*2-EUR-USD / EURCHF (example).

Thanks for the boost!
BR
Big Red, I am not sure I undrestand what you asking about. But once there is no answer until now, I will explain what might be your question. Say we go long on both pairs eurusd and usdchf. So while buying eur and selling usd in the 1st pair we buy usd and sell chf with the second pair - thus eliminating dollar from the equation eur/chf altogether. Then look at the value of eur/usd if we want to eliminate the dollar we should make that a monetary value of the dollar would be equal in both trades. 'Cause 1 eur is worth appr 1.47 dollars, the second trade will be not 1:1 but 1:47 appr.
Was it this you were asking about? It was explained a long time ago in the thread.

Cheers,
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