Majors & Exotics [EUR / GBP / JPY / CAD / AUD]

Wednesday August 19th, US Close:

Tomorrow major Calendar:

GBP 4:00 am MPC Meeting MinutesCAD 8:30 am Retail Sales

Possible large movers:

GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD, USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, GBP/AUD, GBP/CHF

_________________________________________________________

Picks for today:


GBP/USD:

GBP/USD trend reversed direction to BULLISH with moves above both the EU and the Asian session highs today, and moving above 1.8670s. The pair will hold its STRONG BULLISH trend unless falling below US lows of 1.8570s.

GBP/JPY:

After moving lower during Asian and EU sessions, pair boosted higher during US session. This pair has potential to jump higher following MPC announcement today. Watch for 205.30s for bullish trend.


EUR/CAD:

Following EURs surge during US session, EUR/CAD reversed to weak Bullish trend. In order for bullish trend to turn to strong, > 1.5720s bids need to be in. On the reverse side, CAD could see a boost with help of retail sales announcement today. Watch for US session lows around 1.5590s for strong BEARISH trend.



PAIR ____ TREND __ STRENGTH __ CONTINGENCY POSITION
GBP/USD--- BULLISH----- Strong--------- Strong Bearish < 1.8570s
GBP/JPY----- BEARISH---- Strong--------- Strong Bullish > 205.30s
EUR/CAD---- BULLISH----- Weak---------- Strong Bullish > 1.5720s

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/dollar.gif Majors & Exotics [EUR / GBP / JPY / CAD / AUD]
Wednesday August 20th, US Open:


Possible large movers:

GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD, USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, GBP/AUD, GBP/CHF

___________________________________ ______________________

GBP/USD:

GBP/USD trend reversed direction again to BEARISH with moves below both today's Asian session and yesterday's US session lows around 1.8570s. The pair will continue its STRONG BEARISH move during the US session below 1.8690s.

GBP/JPY:

Yesterday's US session highs and today's Asian session highs around 205.10-30s held and as stated yesterday, the STRONG BEARISH move continued during the EU session, posting readings as low as 204.09. Bearish move will continue as long as the EU highs hold.


EUR/CAD:

Weak BULLISH move still holds, but is very likely to turn into STRONG BEARISH move as soon as the EU session lows around 1.5620s give way after pending CAD news. Watch out.



PAIR ____ TREND __ STRENGTH __ CONTINGENCY POSITION
GBP/USD--- BEARISH----- Strong--------- Strong Bullish > 1.8690s
GBP/JPY----- BEARISH---- Strong--------- Weak Bullish > 205.10s
EUR/CAD---- BULLISH----- Weak---------- Strong Bearish < 1.5620s


Good luck with the North American news today.

! BREAKING !

Retail sales surprise on CAD! STRONG BEARISH moves upcoming for USD/CAD, EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD! STRONG BULLISH move coming for CAD/JPY!

Wednesday August 20th, US Close:



EUR/USD:

EUR/USD swings continue around 1.47, with today's Asian lows failing to hold hence opening way to further decline. EUR will shoot upward with US highs failing to resist. [Similar scenario in GBP/USD]


GBP/JPY:

STRONG BEARISH trend continues; US highs will act as resistance area. Failure will see this pair move higher.


GBP/CHF:

CHF sell off during US session reversed the trend in this pair to STRONG BULLISH. Lows of US session should hold, with further gains in this pair.


EUR/CAD:

As stated yesterday, watch out! What a whipsaw effect after the news! The pair is still in its STRONG BEARISH potential, as long as the US highs hold.



PAIR ____ TREND __ STRENGTH __ CONTINGENCY POSITION
EUR/USD--- BEARISH----- Strong------ reverse to Strong Bullish > 1.4770s
GBP/JPY----- BEARISH---- Strong ----- reverse to Weak Bullish > 204.90s
GBP/CHF --- BULLISH ---- Strong----- reverse to Strong Bearish < 2.0380s
EUR/CAD---- BEARISH---- Strong ----- reverse to Strong Bullish > 1.5700s

Thursday August 21th, US Open:



EUR/USD:

EUR/USD [likewise GBP/USD] has broken out of the swing range as noted, and movement above 1.4770 started. Expect further moves higher.

GBP/JPY:

As been noted since last two days, STRONG BEARISH trend continues; the pair will not reverse its direction today.


GBP/CHF:

Yesterday's CHF sell off negated by the JPY buying, and GBP/CHF reversed trend heading lower following the increase in risk aversion. Fannie and Freddie news haunt the markets. Pair expected to move lower.

EUR/CAD:

As noted yesterday, pair succeeded to hold below the US session highs, hence STRONG BEARISH move still lingers. Trend reverse would involve taking out the EUR highs of today, around 1.5700s.

Trend strengths and trade entry points to follow.

PAIR ____ TREND __ STRENGTH __ CONTINGENCY POSITION
EUR/USD--- BULLISH----- Strong------ reverse to Weak Bearish < 1.4740s
GBP/JPY----- BEARISH---- Strong ----- reverse to Weak Bullish > 204.90s
GBP/CHF --- BEARISH ---- Strong----- reverse to Strong Bullish > 2.0460s
EUR/CAD---- BEARISH---- Strong ----- reverse to Strong Bullish > 1.5700s

After clearing out of the swing area between 1.4770 - 1.4650s, EUR shooted up. I expect further moves up towards 1.50+ tomorrow and next week, too. 1.4650s should hold in long term move leg up for the EUR.

I believe that USD needs to take down the EUR/USD below 1.46 to truly say that USD has started a recovery [This value coincides to $770 in Gold and around $100 in oil; which even we see for a few days, will NOT last]

GBP/JPY:

I think that the "fake" reaction from 201s towards 204s during the US session is not sustainable in an environment of Freddie + Fannie talks of going under. This pair needs to move above 205 again in order to stop the JPY march.


EUR/CAD:

The CAD retail sales shock has succeeded to start the gains over majors, USD, EUR and GBP. The move should continue. Its a rather volatile pair, probably taking out lots of weak positions and traders on the way down.

Just came across an interesting discrepancy between the government's gold price, which is currently at $ 1,200, and the market's gold price, which stands at $835 as of August 31st. What do you think of that, eh?


http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php...encapture1.jpg

and the market:

http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php...encapture2.jpg


Do you think Gold is underpriced, USD overpriced, or both? There is an obvious fallacy game performed by either parties.

August 21, US Close:

USD selloff picked up pace during the US session, with EUR/USD moving above the previously mentioned 1.4770 area. EUR will continue to gain against the USD as long as it stays above today's US session lows around 1.4780s.

Regarding the JPY:

As i mentioned today, the JPY selloff during the US session doesn't mean anything, and I believe that was a "fake" move to get the "weak links" out. The GBP/JPY should continue lower as long as US session highs remain intact.

CAD also pickup pace today, taking USD/CAD, EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD lower. This situation should continue into Friday.


Some numbers after the break.

PAIR _______ TREND _________ CONTINGENCY POSITION
EUR/USD--- Strong BULLISH---------- reverse to Weak Bearish < 1.4770s
GBP/JPY----- Strong BEARISH--------- reverse to Weak Bullish > 204.80s
GBP/CHF --- Strong BEARISH -------- reverse to Weak Bullish > 2.0420s
EUR/CAD---- Strong BEARISH--- ----- reverse to Strong Bullish > 1.5640s
EUR/AUD--- Strong BULLISH-----------reverse to Strong Bearish < 1.6900s

August 25, EU Open:

Friday's USD buying opened gate to new gains against majors; however I don't expect EUR/USD to fall sharply as it did early August. In order to reverse the main trend, there needs to be solid action by the FED.

JPY crosses remain extremely volatile. JPY strengthening should continue, via whipsaw actions. Related to JPY moves, CHF is also expected to gain versus EUR and especially GBP.

CAD gain continued Friday. There could be some sideways action before CAD continuing to gain versus majors.



PAIR _______ TREND _________ CONTINGENCY POSITION
EUR/USD--- Strong BEARISH---------- reverse to Strong Bullish > 1.4800s
USD/JPY----Strong BULLISH-----------reverse to Weak Bearish < 109.70s
GBP/JPY----- Strong BEARISH--------- reverse to Strong Bullish > 203.70s
GBP/CHF --- Strong BEARISH -------- reverse to Weak Bullish > 2.0350s
EUR/CAD---- Strong BEARISH--- ----- reverse to Weak Bullish > 1.5500s
EUR/AUD--- Strong BULLISH-----------reverse to Weak Bearish < 1.6980s




Remember:

JPY buying ~ AUD&NZD selloff
JPY selloff ~ AUD& NZD buying

Some charts:


EUR/USD

http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php/i40752_eurusd.jpg


GBP/JPY:


http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php/i40753_gbpjpy.jpg


EUR/AUD:


http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php/i40754_euraud.jpg

Hi Preneur,
thnak you for your post,
would you mind sharing how you come up with these analysis? Thanks

There isn't any "holy grail" as any "experienced" investors will tell.

I have been trading forex for 4+ years, together with Gold/Oil/Agriculture for 3+ years.

There isn't any "set" system I use, but there are "set rules + analysis" I try to understand before deciding. I look at both the technicals and fundamentals.

Forex is a little bit different than commodity and agricultural trading I would say. Both involve fundamentals a lot, but commodities and agricultural are driven by fundamentals. Supply+demand equilibrium, trends of need, availability.

For example, regarding corn, what needs to be analyzed:

1) Increasing population drives demand higher (higher prices)
2) Higher demand looks for more land to cultivate (increases supply)
3) Deforestation leads to increasing global warming
4) Both increasing oil prices and concerns about global warming leads to "green and alternative energy"
5) Regulations for "ethanol" use leads to more demand -> increase in price

so on...

For the technical side, I think moving averages are very relevant, especially long time frames, like 200 + 300 MAs on daily and weekly charts are very relevant; for ex: 200 MA on the weekly for GOLD has NEVER been violated since the trend started back in 2001! 200 MA for Gold is around $760 right now; which might be a HUGE buy sign for long Gold now

The situation is also same with EUR/USD, to give another example. 300 MA on weekly has NEVER been violated for EUR/USD since 2000-2001 trend start.

The long term technicals along with fundamentals give a broader understanding on whats going on.

For short term trades, I believe the session Asian, EU and US highs/lows along with moving averages play an important role.


This is a brief summary of how I evaluate and act on markets.

Please feel free to add/subtract your analysis to this.

US close update midday today:


USD could reverse again; EUR/USD is establishing "low" between 1.4650s-1.4800s.

Starting from now, will publish visual update; should make it both faster, and easier to respond. Will also have more info visually, including the daily highs/lows.


EUR/USD

http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php...encapture2.jpg

USD/JPY

As noted today around EU session, pair fell below 109.70s, hence starting a strong bearish move.


http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php...encapture3.jpg

EUR/AUD

Strong bullish moves continues. This pair should move higher supported by the JPY buying, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY driving lower.

http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php...encapture4.jpg

GBP/JPY


http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php...encapture6.jpg

GBP/CHF


http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php...encapture7.jpg