4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

Quoting Chandra

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1. Here is my observation about USD/CAD on Feb 14, 2007 at 3:19 PM GMT.
USD/CAD is in down trend mood as Phillip qouted earlier (because it is below 89 MA).
2. Has completed a counter-trend trade upwards (long) when it completed (i) 'higher low' and (ii) 'bottom round' signals, even though the bottom rounding was not perfect.
3. The counter-trend trade just turned out to be a flat trade and ended touching 8 MA and was not profitable.
4. Recently initiated a 'trend continue' signal (at one bar before the current bar) and it will complete this initiation of the 'trend continue' signal once the current bar is completed at 16:00 GMT.
5. It has gone down a lot in vlaue (after crossing below 89 MA), hence trend continuing further down is week, never the less it is a 'trend continue' signal to go short.
6. There is no signal to go long at this time (3:32 GMT) as the previous two up-going signals ('higher low' and 'bottom round' signals) have done their job with that small counter-trend trade I mentioned earlier.

Phillip, please analyse my observations in detial and comment. I want to make sure I am in the right track with you.
Thanks.
-Chandra

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Quoting pips4uandme

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Hi Chandra,

Yes, the levels for the eur and cable do relate to the 4 hr macd trendlines, you just need to include longterm trendlines on your charts....look back at least 30 days. I have trendlines drawn from Nov last year b/c of the historical highs achieved.

Cable tends to travel in channels for long periods of time, and the channels overlap and seem to come into play often. I think that the 4 hr system is amazing! Phillip has explained exquisitly market action and has helped me immensely w/patience and discipline! The system is based on basic technical analysis and long term trendlines (major trend lines) are really the cornerstone of the system. The MACD gives the directional signal, but you need to know where we are in the market's price action in order to determine if the trade is worth taking. Remember Phillip didn't take every MACD signal b/c price action didn't justify the trade; or he took a trade b/c price was at a support level w/MACD trigger which led to a high probability trade. It is a serious mistake to follow MACD signal only....in a strong trend you will most likely end up losing more than is necessary.


Just zoom out on the 4 hour chart for a year and draw some long term trendlines...that way they are easily seen and you won't need to flip back and forth.

Hey, on another note, Nice Job on USD/CAD analysis!!!

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Quoting Chandra

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Hi Phillip,
I am looking at USD/ CAD 2007-02-14, 16:00 GMT bar.

CAD has travelled a long way south after crossing 89 MA and the previous bar (0:00 GMT) has made a long 'down tail' at which time a not-so-good 'trend contiue' signal formed. Do you thing we can enter a short now (16:33 GMT)?
Thanks.
-Chandra

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Quoting Tw0eleven

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Hello All, I was just curious if anyone else had noticed a time when you typically get a trade entry signal candle? For me, I have observed that you typically get a signal late in the Asian session or beginning of the London session. Has anyone else noticed this? Maybe this will help some people out who work day jobs and can only trade during certain times...this will give them a time they can try to focus on.

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Quoting pips4uandme

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Hi Chandra,

Yes, the levels for the eur and cable do relate to the 4 hr macd trendlines, you just need to include longterm trendlines on your charts....look back at least 30 days. I have trendlines drawn from Nov last year b/c of the historical highs achieved.

Cable tends to travel in channels for long periods of time, and the channels overlap and seem to come into play often. I think that the 4 hr system is amazing! Phillip has explained exquisitly market action and has helped me immensely w/patience and discipline! The system is based on basic technical analysis and long term trendlines (major trend lines) are really the cornerstone of the system. The MACD gives the directional signal, but you need to know where we are in the market's price action in order to determine if the trade is worth taking. Remember Phillip didn't take every MACD signal b/c price action didn't justify the trade; or he took a trade b/c price was at a support level w/MACD trigger which led to a high probability trade. It is a serious mistake to follow MACD signal only....in a strong trend you will most likely end up losing more than is necessary.


Just zoom out on the 4 hour chart for a year and draw some long term trendlines...that way they are easily seen and you won't need to flip back and forth.

Hey, on another note, Nice Job on USD/CAD analysis!!!

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Quoting Phillip Nel

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Gbp went back to trendline and found resistance against it for the time being.

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Quoting Phillip Nel

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Most definitely. On the 1hour strategy that is prime time trading. Unfortunately I am at work when that happens.

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Quoting Chandra

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What is your comment/opinion on this new thing you observed?
Any useful ideas out of this observation for us?
Thanks for postingg.
-Chandra

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Quoting maarf01

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Please, does this means that a break of this support turned resistance trendline cable 'd move to 1.9700 area?

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Quoting alcastro

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PHILLIP,

where are you located? Which time zone?

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Quoting tamkras

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Sorry for the late response, Chandra. As I commented earlier on this trade (post 595), personally I would like to see confirmations for the trade. Why am I entering, is it not an impulsive trade, do I see something else? these types of questions I should ask myself. It's like being always ready for financial audit of your business. Because MACD-based trading is NOT a scalping system, our trade can last from hours to days. Therefore, I want to know a bigger picture, too (i.e. daily price travel).

I saw yesterday 3 confirmations for the trade and I am glad they turned out well.
1). MACD signal is number 1;
2). 4HR inside bar;
3). Daily doji.

These are my just personal observations.
The very fact that this doji was sitting on daily 89SMA has nothing to do the MACD 4HR strategy. It is something we can elaborate beyond this board and we would have missed a lot of good trades in the meantime should we wait for this touch of 89SMA.

Briefly, confluence of patterns provides me confidence in a trading decision.

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Quoting 5forMe

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Phillip -

I am a newbie and am trying to learn the 4 hour strategy. I would like to set up charts like yours so I can interpret entry signals correctly.

I have a demo account from Mig but I have yet to figure out how to add SMA, EMA and correct MACD. If you can help in anyway, let me know. If this is not the charting you use, please let me know.

Am I understanding correctly ...
Enter on 4 hour when I see the MacD signal
only use the Moving Averages for assistance with stops and limits.

Thanks for any help... I appreciate it.


Nanette
(Mom to 5 boys)

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Quoting erdenmensch

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Hi,`
i´m looking for this MACD but I can´t find it. Can somebody help me?

Thanks for help!

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