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  • #3,141
  • Aug 20, 2008 3:27pm Aug 20, 2008 3:27pm
Quoting lemmingboiv2
Is inevitably headed toward 165.40 which is the best place for a short evar. . . It lines up with a level not tested in a month and a 50% fib on the latest downtrend. . . $$$


Of course we are hundreds of pips away from there so the question is where is a good entry point for the way up? I suppose we could wait for the move up then enter around where it is now on the retracement 161.90 ish?

Allthough the smart thing to do would be to say. . . . I missed the move and wait for 165

Thoughts?
I'll agree that it looks pretty good on first glance, but "best ever" would be with a fib at 61.8 or 78.6 . In this case, that would probably be the difference between a trade call and a "no brainer". Just my opinion though.
  • #3,142
  • Aug 20, 2008 4:26pm Aug 20, 2008 4:26pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Looks like the shorts covered on triple payout Wednesday
  • #3,143
  • Aug 20, 2008 4:36pm Aug 20, 2008 4:36pm
please can some post the pdf file(BRV S+R Trading 200808.pdf)....its not opening with mozilla.
  • #3,144
  • Aug 20, 2008 4:43pm Aug 20, 2008 4:43pm
May I suggest a name for this colourful piece...

CodeMunchers SR Matrix...

Nice colours "DM"

Alex




Quoting CodeMuncher
Attachment

Looks like the shorts covered on triple payout Wednesday
  • #3,145
  • Aug 20, 2008 5:58pm Aug 20, 2008 5:58pm
Hi Folks
How are you all? USD/CAD has a nice Triangle in both Daily and 4H charts.......... Could any of you mind to predict which way it will break out? IMO it will break-down and will influence other crosses.........after all CAD is oil eh?

Appreciate your input and thoughts in this regards.......
BANDA333
  • #3,146
  • Aug 20, 2008 6:16pm Aug 20, 2008 6:16pm
Quoting BANDA
Hi Folks
How are you all? USD/CAD has a nice Triangle in both Daily and 4H charts.......... Could any of you mind to predict which way it will break out? IMO it will break-down and will influence other crosses.........after all CAD is oil eh?

Appreciate your input and thoughts in this regards.......
A possible suggestion would be to not take the chart pattern itself as a signal and try to totally disregard it unless it is something blatantly obvious on weekly/monthly sometimes daily and is something like a 1-2-3 formation or some sort of a trend reversal/exhaustion pattern. All else is pure noise to me in volatile markets like these and as some other members have mentioned, chart patterns have probably lost their significance a while ago. For the record, I also love patterns but they have been so phony for the past 6 months that I am slowly stripping them away from significance.

Good luck
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #3,147
  • Aug 20, 2008 6:22pm Aug 20, 2008 6:22pm
Hi djambazov84,
Thank you very much for your input. Lately price action not observing any rules........maybe lot of stop hunting and lot of noise......hope things will change in near future..........otherwise it is very difficult to navigate current patterns........
Ty

Quoting djambazov84
A possible suggestion would be to not take the chart pattern itself as a signal and try to totally disregard it unless it is something blatantly obvious on weekly/monthly sometimes daily and is something like a 1-2-3 formation or some sort of a trend reversal/exhaustion pattern. All else is pure noise to me in volatile markets like these and as some other members have mentioned, chart patterns have probably lost their significance a while ago. For the record, I also love patterns but they have been so phony for the past 6 months that I am slowly stripping them away from significance.

Good luck
BANDA333
  • #3,148
  • Aug 20, 2008 6:45pm Aug 20, 2008 6:45pm
Quoting naomi
please can some post the pdf file(BRV S+R Trading 200808.pdf)....its not opening with mozilla.

I had this problem when attempting to download the original attachment from the first page of this thread with it being a damaged file etc.. I'm not sure what changed but there does not appear to be a problem anymore. I do not think the issue is with the browser you download with, perhaps Adobe needs to be updated, or just a simple reboot might do the trick. Until you do get it sorted, the really pertinent information is in the links on BRV's first post in this thread.

As for EURJPY, if you are confident that it is going to rise to 165 (upon which I have no bias), a safe play would be to buy on any breaks and retests of the resistance turned support, maybe 162.65 or 163.70. Beware though that just because there is a really attractive short trade above, it should not be interpreted as a long signal because the opportunity is so good it must get there - the market does not seek to satisfy you.

One thing that really resonated with me from the pdf was BRV's introduction to George Soros's concept of 'reflexivity', being nimble and acutely aware of changes in the market. I believe to do this you must have little to no bias, or else you will lose the necessary perspective to be reflexive. Bringing preconceived notions of where you think price is headed may have implications on your ability to make these objective decisions, not to mention the emotional implications of being both right AND wrong. If price is an efficient mechanism dictated by supply and demand, all the relevant information will be displayed in our charts anyway.
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  • #3,149
  • Aug 20, 2008 6:54pm Aug 20, 2008 6:54pm
Just my observation on the current major pairs right now, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF. If you look at the 4hr or daily chart you will find that each one is in a consolidation/ranging phase right now. There looks to be a pause in the market until the big boys decided what direction they're going to take it. So if you're patient and wait for the break out we may get a major move. I know for myself it's not easy to sit on my hands and be patient and wait.
  • #3,150
  • Aug 20, 2008 8:15pm Aug 20, 2008 8:15pm
Morning,

Here is a little something for some of you who are looking at the various possibilities that S+R offer when the market is ranging.

Looking at Cable on a daily chart it is currently caught in a range which has to break at some point. So we need to find out which side of the channel has the biggest hurdle (S+R level) to jump over, for this I tend to go up to a weekly chart to get a bigger picture of how much use the support or Resistance level has been used. My eyes tell me that the lower support @ the1.8500 ish area has been smacked into a lot more than the 8724 above, and to top it off the overall trend is down.

Now down to the 4hour what level of resistance can i find nearest to that 500 area and is it enough to stop a retreat and drive things through bringing home a winner. The four hour (sometimes hourly if the bricks and mortar are there) chart should be where i will make my choice duing such times and if it aint ready then Im not in.

No subjectivity plus you have stacked the odds in your favour.
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  • #3,151
  • Aug 20, 2008 8:39pm Aug 20, 2008 8:39pm
Thanks faq123 I got it opened using firefox mozilla
  • #3,152
  • Aug 20, 2008 8:41pm Aug 20, 2008 8:41pm
Much respect Smokey,good job
  • #3,153
  • Aug 20, 2008 8:45pm Aug 20, 2008 8:45pm
Quoting Siam
Morning,

Here is a little something for some of you who are looking at the various possibilities that S+R offer when the market is ranging.

Looking at Cable on a daily chart it is currently caught in a range which has to break at some point. So we need to find out which side of the channel has the biggest hurdle (S+R level) to jump over, for this I tend to go up to a weekly chart to get a bigger picture of how much use the support or Resistance level has been used. My eyes tell me that the lower support @ the1.8500 ish area has been smacked into a lot more than the 8724 above, and to top it off the overall trend is down.

Now down to the 4hour what level of resistance can i find nearest to that 500 area and is it enough to stop a retreat and drive things through bringing home a winner. The four hour (sometimes hourly if the bricks and mortar are there) chart should be where i will make my choice duing such times and if it aint ready then Im not in.

No subjectivity plus you have stacked the odds in your favour.

nicely put, and very straightforward.
question: when a level has been tested a number of times, how do we know if its used and abused, or if its proven itself as a tough obstacle?
Just focus on the pips. The rest is insignificant.
  • #3,154
  • Aug 20, 2008 9:38pm Aug 20, 2008 9:38pm
Quoting SABTrader
just shorted UY @ 109.90
target 109.62
Well it hit my target 2 hrs ago = +28 pips
Took a long time though
was thinking i should of only aimed for 20 pips as it also moved against me 19 pips at one stage.
had a 28 pip SL

every thing looking rangebound now

steve
Don't kill your dreams - execute them.
  • #3,155
  • Aug 20, 2008 9:57pm Aug 20, 2008 9:57pm
Quoting ayaz
nicely put, and very straightforward.
question: when a level has been tested a number of times, how do we know if its used and abused, or if its proven itself as a tough obstacle?
short answer: we don't.

i'm seeing a descending triangle forming on GU hrly and expect it to narrow more before breaking out. Chances are we'll see a false breakout so i favour trading the range right now.
I just sold @ 1.8647
target 1.8550 just above supprt = +97 pips
SL @ 1.8685 just above high of last 48hrs = -38 pips

Later I may trade the breakout long @ 1.8725 and close half for +20 pips
or the breakout short @ 1.8500 and close half for 40 pips
and move stop to breakeven on remainder

steve
Don't kill your dreams - execute them.
  • #3,156
  • Aug 20, 2008 11:25pm Aug 20, 2008 11:25pm
Here's a pattern that happens all the time and is very important for taking advantage of a lot of buying and selling opportunities. You'll notice that when price makes a "U" formation at a turning point there will commonly be a base built within it. Think of it as a cup, where the bottom inside the cup acts as a potential turning point for price. To make the most out of these you would want to scale down to smaller timeframes in order to pinpoint the exact bottom of the cup formation.

If the base of this cup lines up with historical support or resistance all the better. Many times you will see the "stabby" bars in trends get nulled and price will turn at these bases. It happened today on EUR, for instance.

If you take a look at your charts you're going to find them everywhere. They happen over and over again; I look at them very frequently.

Below are some recent examples on EUR and GBP.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,157
  • Aug 20, 2008 11:43pm Aug 20, 2008 11:43pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Here's a pattern that happens all the time and is very important for taking advantage of a lot of buying and selling opportunities. You'll notice that when price makes a "U" formation at a turning point there will commonly be a base built within it. Think of it as a cup, where the bottom inside the cup acts as a potential turning point for price. To make the most out of these you would want to scale down to smaller timeframes in order to pinpoint the exact bottom of the cup formation.

If the base of this cup lines up with historical support or resistance all the better. Many times you will see the "stabby" bars in trends get nulled and price will turn at these bases. It happened today on EUR, for instance.

If you take a look at your charts you're going to find them everywhere. They happen over and over again; I look at them very frequently.

Below are some recent examples on EUR and GBP.
Thats great thanks Billy I see what you mean. You're right when you say you need to be on your toes things can happen pretty quickly around these levels
Time hides Nothing
  • #3,158
  • Aug 20, 2008 11:43pm Aug 20, 2008 11:43pm
Just when you though I was done....

Overview: This level, 1.4737 holds historical significance. Please refer to a 1hr chart previous to the time period below for more clarity.

Step by step:

Point 1: 15 min chart/1hr bounces off of the level. Buying opportunity.

Pont 2: Hourly close below the level. Price pulls back, allowing sellers to get on in. Price drops.

Point 3: Approach to the line again. Selling opportunity.

Point 4: After an hourly close above the line, price bounces off of it again. Oil inventories come out, price takes out the level pretty easily.

Point 5: Level fails, getting weaker; been used many times in the last 24 hr period.

If you take a look at the chart below and study these types of movements you'll be quick to start recognizing these patterns happening all of the time. I've posted a few of these now, simply for the reason that this type of activity is very frequent and reocurring. Consider this a friendly reminder .
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  • #3,159
  • Aug 20, 2008 11:46pm Aug 20, 2008 11:46pm
Here's a setup I really like. Long eurchf at 1.6180. This level is the 50% fib from the low of 1.5990 to the high of 1.6366. It acted as support on retracement down, then after price broke through, it acted as resistance on the first attempt back up. It has broken through to the upside and is currently at 1.6200. Should it fall back down, there's a good shot at it acting as support again.
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  • #3,160
  • Aug 21, 2008 1:16am Aug 21, 2008 1:16am
Long USD/JPY 108.40-35

Just careful of an overheated market on this one; JPY just blasted its way through some very, very important levels tonght and on a need for speed. I'll let you know when price is around there how Im feeling.
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