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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #601
  • Edited 9:04am Feb 14, 2007 8:37am | Edited 9:04am
Let me show you 1 one example of bigger picture - hope you saw it, too. In my humble opinion, eurodollar is developing a set of beautiful beams. Here's the beauty. If this resistance is broken, there is a reason to stay long with the MACD signal.

Natural barrier now - Price Level.

Which is broken as we speak.
Attached Image
  • #602
  • Feb 14, 2007 8:39am Feb 14, 2007 8:39am
Quoting endy
Check out the resistance on cable at around 1.96:
- round number
- SMA89
- SMA200
- continuing trendline resistance (earlier support broken jan 09)
Let's see what happens, that is if we get there, US data will probably show more..
Endy,
can you throw some additional explination on that point (-continuing trendline resisitance (earlier support broken Jan 09)?
Thanks.
-Chandra
  • #603
  • Feb 14, 2007 8:47am Feb 14, 2007 8:47am
Please, what is your own take on the present formation on Loonie Usd/Cad?

Please i need your response.

Thanks
  • #604
  • Feb 14, 2007 8:54am Feb 14, 2007 8:54am
Hi Chandra,

predictions for euro were based on s/r from the daily charts. Euro has a longterm trendline that is way above 1.34 level and is not on the attached chart b/c it is not relevent at this time. what is important are the levels where current trendlines intersect, downtrend tl from nov highs and the double top trendline. Once the exotic option barrier was hit, the upside for euro should have cleared up b/c protection selling would cease (major resistance would no longer be a problem)..and of course 1.3100 is a huge pyschological barrier and would no longer be an issue. Option volatility also increased today w/the hit of 1.3100. What all this means is simply people are getting excited about the probable run up in the euro and a momentum break is likely....

also, when you look at the chart, we have an ascending triangle on the dailies....important zones are now 1.3157, 1.3250 (think this will be a little tough to penetrate because of intersecting trendlines ), 1.3296 is double top.

Not saying that this level will be hit tomorrow, but we could see a run to this level within the next few months.
Attached Image
  • #605
  • Feb 14, 2007 8:55am Feb 14, 2007 8:55am
Quoting Chandra
Endy,
can you throw some additional explination on that point (-continuing trendline resisitance (earlier support broken Jan 09)?
Thanks.
-Chandra
Trendline is comming from 2006.11.17, was hit at 2007.01.08, 2007.01.31, 2007.02.08, later on that day (2007.02.08) it was broken, hence turned to resistance and was hit last monday from bottom..

Endy
  • #606
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:02am Feb 14, 2007 9:02am
Looks like EUR/USD just broke the resistance point.. when will it end?
  • #607
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:14am Feb 14, 2007 9:14am
closing my second cable lot - enough for today...
  • #608
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:15am Feb 14, 2007 9:15am
Quoting tamkras
I accept criticism. I acknowledged the mistake - I saw downtrend for this pair below zero line of the MACD and did not wait for the 4HR close. My mistake and I am out of this pair for the time being.
Hi Tamkras,
I was not criticising you! I was honestly trying to find what was your chain of thought at the time you took the trade so that I can learn.
Please don't read my posting as a criticism? I think I must me more careful about my postings because this is a great site and many good sites got ruined by personal criticism, ego and things like that. I don't want to be the resaon for such bad things to happen to this site. We are a bunch of hard working traders (new and seasoned) who are working to learn the great method given to us by Phillip.
My apologies if I have hurt your feelings. Let us keep up the nobility of this site.
-Chandra
  • #609
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:22am Feb 14, 2007 9:22am
I thought it was a great point, and hopefully no one takes criticism poorly as I should have "de-energized" myself last evening, cause I made some poor decisions on emotion and some "guesses" I thought were good. Stick to the rules and we'll all do well.

Pips for all!

Edit: I'm staying away from the yen pairs as I have yet to consistently make trade with them.... Just my thinking I guess... but I'm sticking to the eur/usd and gbp/usd as philliip has mentioned and concentrate on making trades with them and getting to know them intimently for sentiment and mood.

Quoting Chandra
Hi Tamkras,
I was not criticising you! I was honestly trying to find what was your chain of thought at the time you took the trade so that I can learn.
Please don't read my posting as a criticism? I think I must me more careful about my postings because this is a great site and many good sites got ruined by personal criticism, ego and things like that. I don't want to be the resaon for such bad things to happen to this site. We are a bunch of hard working traders (new and seasoned) who are working to learn the great method given to us by Phillip.
My apologies if I have hurt your feelings. Let us keep up the nobility of this site.
-Chandra
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #610
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:23am Feb 14, 2007 9:23am
Quoting Chandra
Hi Tamkras,
I was not criticising you! I was honestly trying to find what was your chain of thought at the time you took the trade so that I can learn.
Please don't read my posting as a criticism? I think I must me more careful about my postings because this is a great site and many good sites got ruined by personal criticism, ego and things like that. I don't want to be the resaon for such bad things to happen to this site. We are a bunch of hard working traders (new and seasoned) who are working to learn the great method given to us by Phillip.
My apologies if I have hurt your feelings. Let us keep up the nobility of this site.
-Chandra
absolutely no problem. I wanted to ostracise myself for the trade I entered - this kind of trades we should avoid. Gains are not always guaranteed, the more important it is to protect them. This is great system and we should stick to it. Thanks, Chandra!
  • #611
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:26am Feb 14, 2007 9:26am
Hi Chandra & new comers (that's me too!)

I agree w/papertrading vs. live trading....w/one exception. Backtesting a strategy is very important. Phillip referenced traders who know how to think on their own in his tsunami document. The ability to think about what will most likely happen is learned from observation. Backtesting gives you an expectancy that allows you to mentally withstand losing streaks b/c you know what your system is all about.

I came across this thread a few days after it started and have spent everyday studying the setups and backtesting the strategy. Last night was the first live trade and i went smaller than normal b/c of event risk and this is the "forward" testing phase.

Nothing is better than winning....and nothing is worse than losing trade after trade b/c the skills havent been mastered and execution is sloppy. This is a profession that takes an aweful lot of work and sacrafice i.e. sleep, education, did i say sleep?

Phillip tested this system for 2 years before he went live! Talk about dedication...he has worked out the kinks, all we have to do is look back through 50 -200 trades and see how they work out for us and what the positive expectency of the system is. How can we allocate risk properly if we don't know what the winning ratio is? OK, I'm being a bit tough, and you were right on to advocate penny wins/losses....but I want to live on my profits...and have expensive tastes...hehehe....which reminds me....Happy Valentine's Day Everyone!!!!!
  • #612
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:27am Feb 14, 2007 9:27am
The tsunami has hit. Look at the bigger picture

What a move. The emotional buildup was high over the past 5 weeks. Luckily we entered at an early stage last night with the Gbp. Although the chart I gave is the EurUsd one the builtup was for the GbpUsd as well.

I took 50% profit on 1.9488 and set the rest to run with 20 trail stop as I went to work this morning.

Trailing stop taken out at 1.9518.

Profit

50% of 48pips and 50% of 78 for total of 63pips. Wish I could sit live as this was a great breakout.
Attached Image
  • #613
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:39am Feb 14, 2007 9:39am
Quoting maarf01
Please, what is your own take on the present formation on Loonie Usd/Cad?

Please i need your response.

Thanks
1. Here is my observation about USD/CAD on Feb 14, 2007 at 3:19 PM GMT.
USD/CAD is in down trend mood as Phillip qouted earlier (because it is below 89 MA).
2. Has completed a counter-trend trade upwards (long) when it completed (i) 'higher low' and (ii) 'bottom round' signals, even though the bottom rounding was not perfect.
3. The counter-trend trade just turned out to be a flat trade and ended touching 8 MA and was not profitable.
4. Recently initiated a 'trend continue' signal (at one bar before the current bar) and it will complete this initiation of the 'trend continue' signal once the current bar is completed at 16:00 GMT.
5. It has gone down a lot in vlaue (after crossing below 89 MA), hence trend continuing further down is week, never the less it is a 'trend continue' signal to go short.
6. There is no signal to go long at this time (3:32 GMT) as the previous two up-going signals ('higher low' and 'bottom round' signals) have done their job with that small counter-trend trade I mentioned earlier.

Phillip, please analyse my observations in detial and comment. I want to make sure I am in the right track with you.
Thanks.
-Chandra
  • #614
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:46am Feb 14, 2007 9:46am
How should you adjust the MACD system to fit other currency pairs?
  • #615
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:46am Feb 14, 2007 9:46am
anybody what is your take on gj since it bounce off the 89 is down?
  • #616
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:48am Feb 14, 2007 9:48am
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Chandra,

predictions for euro were based on s/r from the daily charts. Euro has a longterm trendline that is way above 1.34 level and is not on the attached chart b/c it is not relevent at this time. what is important are the levels where current trendlines intersect, downtrend tl from nov highs and the double top trendline. Once the exotic option barrier was hit, the upside for euro should have cleared up b/c protection selling would cease (major resistance would no longer be a problem)..and of course 1.3100 is a huge pyschological barrier and would no longer be an issue. Option volatility also increased today w/the hit of 1.3100. What all this means is simply people are getting excited about the probable run up in the euro and a momentum break is likely....

also, when you look at the chart, we have an ascending triangle on the dailies....important zones are now 1.3157, 1.3250 (think this will be a little tough to penetrate because of intersecting trendlines ), 1.3296 is double top.

Not saying that this level will be hit tomorrow, but we could see a run to this level within the next few months.
Hi Pips4Uand me,
Great Study!! It is beyond my perspective! Thank you.
BTW, does this relate to 4hr MACD? I am seeing things confined to 4hr. MACD.
Thanks.
-Chanda

Today, 9:55am
endy http://www.forexfactory.com/images/s...ser_online.gif vbmenu_register("postmenu_217580", true);
Junior Member
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 18


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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chandra http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Endy,
can you throw some additional explination on that point (-continuing trendline resisitance (earlier support broken Jan 09)?
Thanks.
-Chandra

Trendline is comming from 2006.11.17, was hit at 2007.01.08, 2007.01.31, 2007.02.08, later on that day (2007.02.08) it was broken, hence turned to resistance and was hit last monday from bottom..

Endy

Endy,
OH! you go back that far!
Impressed!
How do I see it in perspective of 4hr MACD?
Thanks.

-Chandra.
  • #617
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:13am Feb 14, 2007 10:13am
Going back in time an a daily, weekly, monthly chart to do some analyses must only be to set target levels after an entry has been made by the MACD strategy otherwise you end up making entries based upon other symptoms. The entry level must be based on the MACD. After that support and resistance is the target levels. If it breakout of your S/R levels than you must look for further assistance as to a longer time period etc etc but it is only to define target areas of a trade you allready have open.

I include an account I opened on the 17Jan2007 and did some serious random trades as well as random lot sizes and increase the lot sizes when I was down to catch up the loosing ones etc. etc. I still managed some profit.
The objective is to show you that by making a profit does not mean that you are successful. To be successful you must have a set of rules and a systematic approach that is constant all the time.
I can almost predict that in two months time this account might be wiped out due to randomness.

Dont analyse in a ramdom way or chase different ways. You must have a routine with the same field players so that you can recognize there behaviour.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Random Trading.pdf   633 KB | 4,436 downloads
  • #618
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:14am Feb 14, 2007 10:14am
Hi Chandra,

Yes, the levels for the eur and cable do relate to the 4 hr macd trendlines, you just need to include longterm trendlines on your charts....look back at least 30 days. I have trendlines drawn from Nov last year b/c of the historical highs achieved.

Cable tends to travel in channels for long periods of time, and the channels overlap and seem to come into play often. I think that the 4 hr system is amazing! Phillip has explained exquisitly market action and has helped me immensely w/patience and discipline! The system is based on basic technical analysis and long term trendlines (major trend lines) are really the cornerstone of the system. The MACD gives the directional signal, but you need to know where we are in the market's price action in order to determine if the trade is worth taking. Remember Phillip didn't take every MACD signal b/c price action didn't justify the trade; or he took a trade b/c price was at a support level w/MACD trigger which led to a high probability trade. It is a serious mistake to follow MACD signal only....in a strong trend you will most likely end up losing more than is necessary.


Just zoom out on the 4 hour chart for a year and draw some long term trendlines...that way they are easily seen and you won't need to flip back and forth.

Hey, on another note, Nice Job on USD/CAD analysis!!!
  • #619
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:16am Feb 14, 2007 10:16am
Chandra,

Just saw Phillip's post on long term trendlines. My interpretation was incorrect. Please forgive me for providing my wrong opinion/interpretation.
  • #620
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:30am Feb 14, 2007 10:30am
Quoting Chandra
1. Here is my observation about USD/CAD on Feb 14, 2007 at 3:19 PM GMT.
USD/CAD is in down trend mood as Phillip qouted earlier (because it is below 89 MA).
2. Has completed a counter-trend trade upwards (long) when it completed (i) 'higher low' and (ii) 'bottom round' signals, even though the bottom rounding was not perfect.
3. The counter-trend trade just turned out to be a flat trade and ended touching 8 MA and was not profitable.
4. Recently initiated a 'trend continue' signal (at one bar before the current bar) and it will complete this initiation of the 'trend continue' signal once the current bar is completed at 16:00 GMT.
5. It has gone down a lot in vlaue (after crossing below 89 MA), hence trend continuing further down is week, never the less it is a 'trend continue' signal to go short.
6. There is no signal to go long at this time (3:32 GMT) as the previous two up-going signals ('higher low' and 'bottom round' signals) have done their job with that small counter-trend trade I mentioned earlier.

Phillip, please analyse my observations in detial and comment. I want to make sure I am in the right track with you.
Thanks.
-Chandra


Chandra,

Thanks so much, I really appreciate that your superb analysis, very well thought out.

Phillip can add to the Chandra comment as she humbly asked.

Thanks phillip for given us 'The Rookies' this great opportunity.

More pips to everybody in the house
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