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  • #3,101
  • Aug 20, 2008 2:36am Aug 20, 2008 2:36am
Afternoon,

I'll close the trade with the news coming out in a wee while that's enough for today.

Stay safe out there folks
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  • #3,102
  • Aug 20, 2008 3:34am Aug 20, 2008 3:34am
I've been trading a long time but am still learning how to be consistently profitable .
One thing i have learnt is that you need to know whether the market is trending or ranging. The way i see it it is always in one of these states. Forex spends a lot of time trending and a lot of time ranging but you'll only lose money if you don't know what it's doing now. Before you can define the state you need to decide first what time frame you are trading ie. daytrading = round trip in less than 24hrs; short term = days, medium term = weeks, long term trading = months, investing = yrs.

I'm focused on daytrading as my trading patience fades to nil after about 8 hrs. I now use a 48hr SMA as an indicator of whether the market is trending or not. If you look at the GU you will see this indicator has been very flat for the last 2.5 days so it is ranging now as far as daytrading is concerned. If the market goes up for 1 day and then down for 1 day (as it often does) the 48hMA stays flat. This is when a handle is forming and it is safest to fade the SR levels.

For my purposes i now only trade with the trend when it slopes consistently in one direction for more than 36hrs. right now that seems to be stocks not forex. when markets trend they seem to get enough momentum to blow through old SR levels.

steve
Don't kill your dreams - execute them.
  • #3,103
  • Aug 20, 2008 3:44am Aug 20, 2008 3:44am
Quoting SABTrader
This is when a handle is forming and it is safest to fade the SR levels.

steve
Thanks for the input Steve

I know this question has been answered recently but I still don't get it...

Just wondering if you could explain what you mean by fading a level - Do you mean trading the break outs>?

Cheers

PS - I like your tip for determining trending and ranging times - I find it much easier to see with a 12 EMA on the 4 hour chart (48 / 4 =12)

Staying true to the roots of this thread you can see ranging or trending with that great old indicator our eyes but it's good to have a confirmation there.
Time hides Nothing
  • #3,104
  • Aug 20, 2008 4:29am Aug 20, 2008 4:29am
Hi Billy, thank you for sharing your experience.

Can I ask you which of the following 4 bounces on the EUR/AUD would you have considered taking?

I marked 4 that gave a decent amount of pips. But I was only going to take the first one and sit out the rest for fear of a break up.
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  • #3,105
  • Aug 20, 2008 4:39am Aug 20, 2008 4:39am
Quoting CindyXXXX
I know this question has been answered recently but I still don't get it...

Just wondering if you could explain what you mean by fading a level - Do you mean trading the break outs>?


To 'fade' is to take a trade in the opposite direction of the prevailing trend, that is, in expectation that the support or resistance will hold.
  • #3,106
  • Aug 20, 2008 4:56am Aug 20, 2008 4:56am
Quoting birdt
To 'fade' is to take a trade in the opposite direction of the prevailing trend, that is, in expectation that the support or resistance will hold.
Cheers T Bird
Time hides Nothing
  • #3,107
  • Aug 20, 2008 5:08am Aug 20, 2008 5:08am
Quoting birdt
To 'fade' is to take a trade in the opposite direction of the prevailing trend, that is, in expectation that the support or resistance will hold.
Thanks, Cindy. I asked before and I was still struggling with it, like you.

BirdT - to further demonstrate my ignorance, let me ask: is the "prevailing trend" the direction that the price is approaching the S/R level (which could be either way) or is it the trend I would see on SMA15-25 on W1 or D1 charts?

Thanks.
David
  • #3,108
  • Aug 20, 2008 5:15am Aug 20, 2008 5:15am
Quoting Grath
BirdT - to further demonstrate my ignorance, let me ask: is the "prevailing trend" the direction that the price is approaching the S/R level (which could be either way) or is it the trend I would see on SMA15-25 on W1 or D1 charts?

The direction the price is approaching the support/resistance. When someone says 'I'm fading here' they are saying that they are taking a contrarian trade in the expectation that a support/resistance level will hold and price will reverse/retrace.
  • #3,109
  • Aug 20, 2008 5:16am Aug 20, 2008 5:16am
Quoting Grath
Thanks, Cindy. I asked before and I was still struggling with it, like you.

BirdT - to further demonstrate my ignorance, let me ask: is the "prevailing trend" the direction that the price is approaching the S/R level (which could be either way) or is it the trend I would see on SMA15-25 on W1 or D1 charts?

Thanks.
David
Maybe a chart example would clear things up here
Time hides Nothing
  • #3,110
  • Aug 20, 2008 5:17am Aug 20, 2008 5:17am
Quoting birdt
The direction the price is approaching the support/resistance. When someone says 'I'm fading here' they are saying that they are taking a contrarian trade in the expectation that a support/resistance level will hold and price will reverse/retrace.
But isn't this the basis behind every NB trade we take here? I think this is why it is confusing us.... I mean isn't every NB trade we take a fade - Selling resistance - buying support

Cheers
Time hides Nothing
  • #3,111
  • Aug 20, 2008 5:21am Aug 20, 2008 5:21am
Hey everyone,

For those that find it useful here's an updated version of the thread pdf with a load more posts that I've found helpful - enjoy!

SMP
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File Type: pdf BRV S+R Trading 200808.pdf   722 KB | 7,341 downloads
  • #3,112
  • Aug 20, 2008 5:23am Aug 20, 2008 5:23am
The price for the EUR/AUD = EUR/USD divided by AUD/USD.

The way I see it the only time i would trade a synthetic pair like this is when the EUR and the AUD are expected to move in opposite directions.
I would first be analysing the EU and AU.

the large spread with synthetics also make them costlier to trade so don't try scalping them.

steve
Don't kill your dreams - execute them.
  • #3,113
  • Aug 20, 2008 5:33am Aug 20, 2008 5:33am
Quoting CindyXXXX
But isn't this the basis behind every NB trade we take here? I think this is why it is confusing us.... I mean isn't every NB trade we take a fade?

Cheers
I guess so. The term 'fade' is normally associated with high risk (and low won/loss ratio as it is against the trend), but this does not seem to be the case judging by the results of BRV's trades so far. I am beginning to think that the only way to trade is to fade the market and pick those tops and bottoms, maximizing profit potential and minimizing the distance to stop losses more than outweigh the benefits of indicator 'confirmation'. If the levels are selected well enough you can still observe price action on the lower time frames to see if you get some reaction from them before entering.
  • #3,114
  • Aug 20, 2008 5:56am Aug 20, 2008 5:56am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Paralyzed Trading
In regards to your comment: “Seems every trade I don't take wins and every trade I take loses

This is a big problem with a lot of traders.

My only advice for this is too keep on going and forget about the losers FAST and worry about what’s coming next.

We had one trader where we had to move a losing position into another account for him because it was messing with his head so much he was starting to fault on newer trades. That’s why I like to stress closing losers promptly and moving onto the next trade in order to minimize any blows from bad positions. Losses happen; how quickly you pick up from them and get back in the drivers seat is another story. Patience, patice patience and keep the ball rolling. Have a plan and keep it in place.
I am must say I like your way of putting things in a lucid manner and you are very clear about what you do. I am sure everyone who follows you will learn a lot . I intend to be one.

I have gleaned this information from my trading platform and how do I make use of this information?

10:39 FX OPTIONS: EUR/USD 1.4720 Expiry Today London, August 20. A 1.4720 strike rolls off at today"s 10am Eastern NY cut (14:00GMT). There is a 1.4750 expiry tomorrow (Thursday), and 1.4700 and 1.4755 expiries on Friday. Exotic option exposure is tipped at 1.4600. [email protected]
  • #3,115
  • Aug 20, 2008 6:31am Aug 20, 2008 6:31am
>The term 'fade' is normally associated with high risk (and low won/loss ratio as it is against the trend)

Not always.
imagine this pattern repeated twice
up 100 pips, down 200 pips, up 100 pips, down 200 pips
the trend is obviously down but you could fade that last down move and go long
better odds if it also lines up with another historical SRL
but if you fade against the trend you better have a target close enough to get you out quickly.

Don't try and catch a falling knife.
steve
Don't kill your dreams - execute them.
  • #3,116
  • Aug 20, 2008 8:08am Aug 20, 2008 8:08am
With some temerity, I offer: GBPCHF short at 2.0445 - previous resistance 18th July and almost at the fib 50.

Please tell me if I've got it wrong.
  • #3,117
  • Aug 20, 2008 8:09am Aug 20, 2008 8:09am
thanks dude well done
lol
  • #3,118
  • Aug 20, 2008 8:11am Aug 20, 2008 8:11am
I'm shorting USD/ CAD, TP 1.0560
  • #3,119
  • Aug 20, 2008 8:24am Aug 20, 2008 8:24am
I think that we sould wait to see how price action will react on formed trndline. Possible stronger move in both directions (up on break, down on rebound)
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  • #3,120
  • Aug 20, 2008 8:40am Aug 20, 2008 8:40am
just shorted UY @ 109.90
target 109.62
Don't kill your dreams - execute them.
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