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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #5,541
  • Aug 20, 2008 2:06am Aug 20, 2008 2:06am
Quoting fti
Hi,
Yes , its alittle quiet.
So here's a little babbling.

About rules and terms that apply. (Bundleing)
One day, I am gonna open a restaurant, and I am gonna charge everyone who comes in to eat 50cts and they can eat all they can eat for that price. I will display steaks and pizzas and seafood cuisines and all exotic foods.

Since I only charge 50 cts, I must insist that payment be made before they enter. Otherwise, I have to employ cashier, then I cannot charge 50 cts.

Terms and conditions apply.

On entry , you will be served a gallon of water. And you have to finish that before you start eating.

And snce the que to dine is so long , I am afraid I will have to restrict your eating time to 1 min each patron, so as I can be fair ro all patrons.

Bon Appetite.

regards
Hello FTI,
Yes, you should read your trading terms very carefully and they are not gonna be favorable to you.. i know.

I am not asociated with InterbankFX or any other broker. So these are not my rules! This rule I mentioned is not in the agreement.
  • #5,542
  • Aug 20, 2008 2:09am Aug 20, 2008 2:09am
Quoting jest1081
i dont have an account with them. DId you read me properly?
I was merely using gains data as a backfill, rest is all live prices from mbt....goodness lord!
was not intended entirely for you, there are several people shopping for brokers, so this one is not recommended.

i did read you. It always comes out wrong.. I need to work on it.. hehe.
  • #5,543
  • Aug 20, 2008 2:11am Aug 20, 2008 2:11am
Quoting MaMood
Ok, you are right.
But if so, why should I take the risk of doing a rescue for a "peanuts-scout" at all?

To get things clear, I need to view at them in extreme scenarios. Therefor lets take a look at yesterdays EURUSD rally. Watching the 5m chart at 1255 GMT. Lets assume you were USD bull (the reason why should not be discussed) and deployed after the dip back to 14660 an attack. Before you went out with your attack you got coaught by the up move at 1310 GMT.

Should we take out the attack troops with a loss or should we prepare for an rescue mission?
And keep in mind that we didn't knew about the starting rally of that pair at that time.
If we prepare for a rescue, than there is the question again: Sharp 2 pips rescue or mild 20 pips rescue ...

Sorry for disturbing you with my prob, but it's affecting my thoughts badly ...
I understand you and I would really like FTI to comment this as I am not an expert. I might be totally wrong here but I don't think we are supposed to rescue fully loaded attack going bad.. lower the exposure (preserve capital), rescue if possible, make it back later.
  • #5,544
  • Aug 20, 2008 2:17am Aug 20, 2008 2:17am
Quoting MaMood
Yeah - I sometimes thought by me: Why not to build up a retail broker business. The market is booming. There are so many unexperienced traders out there, which would xecept nearly all silly terms and conditions.

Easy money ....
1. Platforms are free because all fees, upgrades are charged to the broker, of course you forward them to customer as spread (or commission sometimes).
2. You have to have good clearing houses because you don't want to be stuck with a position you cannot pass on to the interbank.

Oanda almost went bankrupt not so long ago because of news trading exploit. It was the best broker till then.

There are risks involved but in the end, yes.. it could be easy money.

Not sure how the banks will look at it.. if you want to "connect".
  • #5,545
  • Aug 20, 2008 2:20am Aug 20, 2008 2:20am
Quoting piccolo
1. Platforms are free because all fees, upgrades are charged to the broker, of course you forward them to customer as spread (or commission sometimes).
2. You have to have good clearing houses because you don't want to be stuck with a position you cannot pass on to the interbank.

Oanda almost went bankrupt not so long ago because of news trading exploit. It was the best broker till then.

There are risks involved but in the end, yes.. it could be easy money.

Not sure how the banks will look at it.. if you want to "connect".
Yeah i herd about that it was a group of news traders. Oanda has a 123 mil right?
  • #5,546
  • Aug 20, 2008 3:13am Aug 20, 2008 3:13am
Quoting M-H Trader
Yeah i herd about that it was a group of news traders. Oanda has a 123 mil right?
interesting website.. you don't look like 8+ years market experience in the picture.
  • #5,547
  • Aug 20, 2008 3:18am Aug 20, 2008 3:18am
Quoting piccolo
interesting website.. you don't look like 8+ years market experience in the picture.
HAha, i dont thats Rob.
  • #5,548
  • Aug 20, 2008 3:20am Aug 20, 2008 3:20am
Quoting fti
Hi,
Yes , its alittle quiet.
So here's a little babbling.

About rules and terms that apply. (Bundleing)
One day, I am gonna open a restaurant, and I am gonna charge everyone who comes in to eat 50cts and they can eat all they can eat for that price. I will display steaks and pizzas and seafood cuisines and all exotic foods.

Since I only charge 50 cts, I must insist that payment be made before they enter. Otherwise, I have to employ cashier, then I cannot charge 50 cts.

Terms and conditions apply.

On entry , you will be served a gallon of water. And you have to finish that before you start eating.

And snce the que to dine is so long , I am afraid I will have to restrict your eating time to 1 min each patron, so as I can be fair ro all patrons.

Bon Appetite.

regards
What an excellent idea, fti's very own bucket shop brokerage firm...

now lets all come up with a name for him..

And because he has trained us he will give us free tips, zero spreads, no commissions and any spikes that cause an unfair advantage shall be refunded 2x

fti I think these rules much more palatable ... you will ensure the loyalty of your faithful students

joy
  • #5,549
  • Edited 3:44am Aug 20, 2008 3:21am | Edited 3:44am
Hi MaMood,
Out of ALL the people here, you are the only person who spotted this.
I guess some people didn't spotted this because its not my MO at all.
This is more closely to what Leighsww would do and you know what has happened.

So I am sorry, that I cannot comment on something thats not mine althought it is easy to mistaken it to be.

I like to help you out with these words to untangle you mind.
DANCE the RHYTHM and with the TREND. Use proper MM to your advantage.
Use BASIC and CORE technical analysis and guide the trading with your BRAINS.
Rigidity kills.

regards

Quoting MaMood
Ok, you are right.
But if so, why should I take the risk of doing a rescue for a "peanuts-scout" at all?

Yeah, why should you if it against the trend?

To get things clear, I need to view at them in extreme scenarios. Therefor lets take a look at yesterdays EURUSD rally. Watching the 5m chart at 1255 GMT. Lets assume you were USD bull (the reason why should not be discussed) and deployed after the dip back to 14660 an attack. Before you went out with your attack you got coaught by the up move at 1310 GMT.

Should we take out the attack troops with a loss or should we prepare for an rescue mission?

I never said that you had to rescue all dead in the water scouts scouts. Did I rescure the bull scout yesterday before killing all and going to have dinner. When I came back, didi I go long usd again OR was I SHORT. Maybe you should reread yesterdays posting to try to figure out my frame of dance. Mostly I had given out, but I won't be giving out thoughts like that anymore. You people have got to learn to think too.

And keep in mind that we didn't knew about the starting rally of that pair at that time.
If we prepare for a rescue, than there is the question again: Sharp 2 pips rescue or mild 20 pips rescue ...I don't know who you are listening to, I am NEVER this rigid. I had never talk about if rescue should be 2 pips , 20 pips or 200pips, I only said dance.

Sorry for disturbing you with my prob, but it's affecting my thoughts badly ...
  • #5,550
  • Aug 20, 2008 3:51am Aug 20, 2008 3:51am
HI ALL,
Now these sobs are really testing my patience.
Had already built the Eurs to nearly 11% of cap.
I never will built it up to 30%, unless this was an attack.
Attack I was unable since yesterday, as lost too much range to risk that.
I don't know, maybe today if I get a chance.
but I don't like the way the markets performing, some giant hand is trying everything to dam this reversal in.
Look whoever you are , I don't care how big yours is, when it flows on you, you shall be OVER-RUNNED.
and don't think people cannot see that the mode is via yen crosses.


regards
  • #5,551
  • Aug 20, 2008 4:07am Aug 20, 2008 4:07am
Quoting fti
HI ALL,
Now these sobs are really testing my patience.
Had already built the Eurs to nearly 11% of cap.
I never will built it up to 30%, unless this was an attack.
Attack I was unable since yesterday, as lost too much range to risk that.
I don't know, maybe today if I get a chance.
but I don't like the way the markets performing, some giant hand is trying everything to dam this reversal in.
Look whoever you are , I don't care how big yours is, when it flows on you, you shall be OVER-RUNNED.
and don't think people cannot see that the mode is via yen crosses.


regards
unless ... the market owner himself is doing the invisible hand work ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #5,552
  • Aug 20, 2008 4:18am Aug 20, 2008 4:18am
Quoting maheswara
unless ... the market owner himself is doing the invisible hand work ...
Hi maheswara,
Don't know if CB are involved.
Normally is budding rogue trader , hallucinating that they are protecting CB's interest. This one may be coming out of the Far East again, probably from the land of kamikazes. This one knows how to use yen crosses. We'll probably hear about him if he bellys up.
Wait till BOJ comes out to teach him for screwing up the yen with all these crosses.When you hear about investors coming at him with katanas to split him in two, then you will know exactly who the culprit is.

There's always a fool thinking that he's bigger than the market.
Anyways , I best be looking after my babies, needs some massaging already.And I need some meditation too.

Realigning some positional losses, to accumulate capital of attack , if and when it comes. For now bleed.

regards
  • #5,553
  • Aug 20, 2008 4:30am Aug 20, 2008 4:30am
Quoting fti
Hi maheswara,
Don't know if CB are involved.
Normally is budding rogue trader , hallucinating that they are protecting CB's interest. This one may be coming out of the Far East again, probably from the land of kamikazes. This one knows how to use yen crosses. We'll probably hear about him if he bellys up.
Wait till BOJ comes out to teach him for screwing up the yen with all these crosses.When you hear about investors coming at him with katanas to split him in two, then you will know exactly who the culprit is.

There's always a fool thinking that he's bigger than the market.
Anyways , I best be looking after my babies, needs some massaging already.And I need some meditation too.

regards
hahaha. thats quite an anology fti, but wow! if its him, i'd have to say WOW. this fella cut off some pretty legs a few hours back. The playboys will be angry to see their women being toyed around. lol.
  • #5,554
  • Aug 20, 2008 4:35am Aug 20, 2008 4:35am
Quoting fti
Hi MaMood,
[...]

...I don't know who you are listening to, I am NEVER this rigid. I had never talk about if rescue should be 2 pips , 20 pips or 200pips, I only said dance.

regards
Hi fti,

thanx for your comments.
I'm listening to no one special.

But I want to learn to be a successful fisherman.
And I'm not very optimistic to manage my future successfully in this business, if I only consume your knowledge, experience and wisdom.

It's my nature to challenge the concepts.
I want to develop the ability to think in your concepts, to be successful on the long run.
Well - one of the main concepts (beside professional dancing) is the appropriate "skewing" ...
That's the reason why I spotted this topic.
I have to develop a feeling on it.
It's difficult to me to adopt the "god given" fib progression without an understanding of it's magic. A more adaptive progression, based on the volatilty/dynamic comes to mind ...

By the way: It was not my intent to deflect us here from your teachings.

Thanx again for you patience!
  • #5,555
  • Aug 20, 2008 4:39am Aug 20, 2008 4:39am
K.R. day not meaning too much at moment.
  • #5,556
  • Aug 20, 2008 4:52am Aug 20, 2008 4:52am
Quoting MaMood
Hi fti,

thanx for your comments.
I'm listening to no one special.

But I want to learn to be a successful fisherman.
And I'm not very optimistic to manage my future successfully in this business, if I only consume your knowledge, experience and wisdom.

It's my nature to challenge the concepts.
I want to develop the ability to think in your concepts, to be successful on the long run.
Well - one of the main concepts (beside professional dancing) is the appropriate "skewing" ...
That's the reason why I spotted this topic.
I have to develop a feeling on it.
It's difficult to me to adopt the "god given" fib progression without an understanding of it's magic. A more adaptive progression, based on the volatilty/dynamic comes to mind ...

By the way: It was not my intent to deflect us here from your teachings.

Thanx again for you patience!
Hi MaMood,
The difference between the winner and the loser may just be a nose.
Sometimes , things may lokk the same , but foundationally they may be different, and thats where the strength may be.

This is the reasons that I asked that if you are new to this, do small size and skew 1:1:1 until you learned from the markets lessons for you to build on it. Always having a buffer to fall back on when you are taught nes lesson by the market. I don't know how rich anyone here is, however rich you may be it behoves you to master things before putting your life on the line.

Anyway this is apublic forum, so may not be the right place to try to teach people anything. But if anyone can grasp some understanding , it woud be great.

Sorry gotta watch my babies.

regards
  • #5,557
  • Edited 5:14am Aug 20, 2008 5:02am | Edited 5:14am
Quoting joypips
K.R. day not meaning too much at moment.
Joy,

Battles like this is few and far between.
Today we have a major chart pattern being challenged.
I have no choice but to defend the daily pattern position.
Moreover untill 3 hours ago, the hourly was prep for attack.
this move is testing, yes, but the fat lady hasn't sung yet.
The hourly charts are in trouble quickly. and the short charts incoherently against the day pattern.
Let see if the sentiments will change.
We had the same problem, 2 weeks ago while the Eur tried to turn.
I recognise the same cross strategies being used.
So lets see, I think he will die soon, only gotta get the timing right.

For now had booked losses and am still managing the books ability to fight back when the killing begins. Damage is inevitable sometimes, I have to strategies to come out of this alive.

Later, its gonna be a long long day.
  • #5,558
  • Aug 20, 2008 5:20am Aug 20, 2008 5:20am
Quoting fti
Joy,

Battles like this is few and far between.
Today we have a major chart pattern being challenged.
I have no choice but to defend the daily pattern position.
Moreover untill 3 hours ago, the hourly was prep for attack.
this move is testing, yes, but the fat lady hasn't sung yet.
The hourly charts are in trouble quickly. and the short charts incoherently against the day pattern.
Let see if the sentiments will change.
We had the same problem, 2 weeks ago while the Eur tried to turn.
I recognise the same cross strategies being used.
So lets see, I think he will die soon, only gotta get the timing right.

For now had booked losses and am still managing the books ability to fight back when the killing begins. Damage is inevitable sometimes, I have to strategies to come out of the alive and shining.

Later.
thanks fti.. we know you will come thru shining brightly being the star that you are...
awaiting your postmortem..

battle well

joy
  • #5,559
  • Edited 6:43am Aug 20, 2008 5:28am | Edited 6:43am
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  • #5,560
  • Aug 20, 2008 5:32am Aug 20, 2008 5:32am
Quoting fti
Joy,

Battles like this is few and far between.
Today we have a major chart pattern being challenged.
I have no choice but to defend the daily pattern position.
Moreover untill 3 hours ago, the hourly was prep for attack.
this move is testing, yes, but the fat lady hasn't sung yet.
The hourly charts are in trouble quickly. and the short charts incoherently against the day pattern.
Let see if the sentiments will change.
We had the same problem, 2 weeks ago while the Eur tried to turn.
I recognise the same cross strategies being used.
So lets see, I think he will die soon, only gotta get the timing right.

For now had booked losses and am still managing the books ability to fight back when the killing begins. Damage is inevitable sometimes, I have to strategies to come out of this alive.

Later, its gonna be a long long day.
hi fti,

I would like to ask you why you think he will die soon?
was it because the majors were not moving in a correlative fashion?

I noticed as eur and gbp sells the Yen barely moved 20pips.
now that sets me thinking, someone was using the crosses to make these wonders.

is that why you think the current vol was not normal?
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