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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #5,521
  • Aug 19, 2008 7:37pm Aug 19, 2008 7:37pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi Billionaire,

here is my blotter:

S x 1 x USDJPY x 109.75 0415 GMT Scout
S x 4 x USDJPY x 109.87 0450 GMT Rescue 1
S x 25 x USDJPY x 110.00 0515 GMT Rescue 2
S x 200 x USDJPY x 110.26 0630 GMT Rescue 3
B x 200 x USDJPY x 110.20 0640 GMT
B x 29 x USDJPY x 110.00 0700 GMT

Just for info: I'm trading minilots, that means largest position were 20 Lots, not 200 ;-)

I'm running some exercises for myself to get rid of the fear to trade large positions with real money. That's the reason, why I added so agressively in my rescues.
mamood,

when i look at ur blotter, i smiled. lol
becareful, i was where you were many many months ago, the day i and Lusan got killed real bad by fast markets.

1. u did a x4 when u were 12pips away. when a x2 would only require u 4pips to breakeven. be flexible with the skews but also do the maths.
2. u did not use a fibo progression. i think fti mentioned before, 1,2,5 for attacks and 1,3,8 for rescues.
3. try to give the scout more time to bleed next time ard dont be too worried with minute losses.
4. That sizing looks alot like scorpiion to me, trust me when i say this bro, be very careful less u realy don mind losing it all.
  • #5,522
  • Aug 19, 2008 7:46pm Aug 19, 2008 7:46pm
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,


Is it my charts only or is everyone experiencing gaps every where.
According to interbank dealers, the markets are quite smooth.
BUT my charts are like crazy.

A few times , they quoted me 15 pips from my charts and I f them, but they told me that was where the market was.
Then later the charts just gapped there.


regards
fti,

i think efx has the best feeds for retailers. no problems on my side.
thing is, their data has got no backfills.

there are 2 options,

1. signup with e-signal for fx data (efx use tdfx data, same as esig, ive seen banks like ubs in the order queue)
2. open an efx demo acc. download & install, ninjatrader, get backfilled data from gaincapital the re-connect to efx to get real time data.

i can guide u thru it if it seems too cheem.
anyway gain cap do not supply daily data, so at most ur backfill is up to 3 days, but u get data to the tick level.
  • #5,523
  • Aug 19, 2008 9:51pm Aug 19, 2008 9:51pm
Quoting jest1081
fti,

i think efx has the best feeds for retailers. no problems on my side.
thing is, their data has got no backfills.

there are 2 options,

1. signup with e-signal for fx data (efx use tdfx data, same as esig, ive seen banks like ubs in the order queue)
2. open an efx demo acc. download & install, ninjatrader, get backfilled data from gaincapital the re-connect to efx to get real time data.

i can guide u thru it if it seems too cheem.
anyway gain cap do not supply daily data, so at most ur backfill is up to 3 days, but u get data to the tick level.
Hi jest,
Thanks.
I had learned one thing about computers since I started using it.
If any program and software requires a manual and or instructions to use.
Then I forget about it. The reason is I do not care to support bad organisational structure and bad coding (programming).
AND if any website only caters for proprietary browsers and software or hardware, rest assured that somewhere along the line , you will be screwwed to a corner and squeezed. I also will never support such. So long as any hardware of software smells of PROPRIETARY, thanks , they can keep it.

regards
  • #5,524
  • Aug 19, 2008 10:04pm Aug 19, 2008 10:04pm
Quoting fti
Hi jest,
Thanks.
I had learned one thing about computers since I started using it.
If any program and software requires a manual and or instructions to use.
Then I forget about it. The reason is I do not care to support bad organisational structure and bad coding (programming).

AND if any website only caters for proprietary browsers and software or hardware, rest assured that somewhere along the line , you will be screwwed to a corner and squeezed. I also will never support such. So long as any hardware of software smells of PROPRIETARY, thanks , they can keep it.

regards
hi fti,

hehe. actually efx/mbt have a slew of softwares. Dont get it wrong. Ninjatrader is a stand alone software that could connect to multiple datafeeds/brokers. But the problem with efx feeds is...there are no backfills, so you don't get historical data as the ticks update emselves. hehehe. The only broker thats providing backfill is gain cap, so you'll have to connect to gain cap, get the data filled and the re-connect to efx to get realtime data

sure thats not prop. anyway ninjatrader is quite pricey if you are gonna get urslef the full version. But for charting purposes, i think it suffices.
  • #5,525
  • Aug 19, 2008 10:12pm Aug 19, 2008 10:12pm
Hi ALL,

Amongst the kings, on this bear run, it seems that Eur takes the gold.
GBP and Yen trailing far behind. The spreads are turning as well. This is strong indication of a technical reversal. It seems the bears had come back in a big way. Is this a trap? Well only thng I can say is, if i don't trade such bearish signals, then I cannot trade technically.

Now to search for reasons why the USD is a bear, to support my positions.
I would take bearish impulses in the short charts more seriously from here.

It is lunch in far east now and we are testing this 1.4750/60 zone for the second time since the strong bear USD impulse. If this level holds firm, it could be the spring board and step ladder for more downside push of the USD.

Trade carefully, my friends.

regards
  • #5,526
  • Edited 10:52pm Aug 19, 2008 10:38pm | Edited 10:52pm
Quoting jest1081
hi fti,

hehe. actually efx/mbt have a slew of softwares. Dont get it wrong. Ninjatrader is a stand alone software that could connect to multiple datafeeds/brokers. But the problem with efx feeds is...there are no backfills, so you don't get historical data as the ticks update emselves. hehehe. The only broker thats providing backfill is gain cap, so you'll have to connect to gain cap, get the data filled and the re-connect to efx to get realtime data

sure thats not prop. anyway ninjatrader is quite pricey if you are gonna get urslef the full version. But for charting purposes, i think it suffices.
Hi jest,

Thanks.
Many eons ago, we had softwares like memory charts, computrac, teletrac, metastocks, knightridder, bloomberg charts, reuters charts....for charting.
And where are they today?
Why was there no continuity. The reason,Pay and pay. All these SERVICES, thinks that traders are money trees. Shaking them, and get money.

You know why exchange trading is not very successful in forex products?
The reason is the interbank market is still alive!!
Unlike proprietary products of stocks and shares. The interbank currencies are public domain.
Otherwise you would be charged clearing fee for trades, order filling fees to execute trades, server fees for trade access, lines fees for databoxes, Data feed fees for price database, service charges for accounts and broker fees for trades.

In the interbank, non of these fees exist.

When technical analysis became computer literate, came an onslaught of new fees. Fees for proprietary charting softwares, Fees for data feeds from data vendors, annual subscriptions for charting software to subdue in-build time bug, Fees for usbkeys.

Then computer people climbed on board, with hardware upgrades every few months to compliment software development. esp graphics cards.

So after all this shxt, I hope you may empathise my sentiments towards proprietary stuff and industrial leeches.

regards
  • #5,527
  • Aug 19, 2008 10:50pm Aug 19, 2008 10:50pm
Quoting fti
Hi jest,

Thanks.
Many eons ago, we had softwares like memory charts, computrac, teletrac, metastocks, knightridder, bloomberg charts, reuters charts....for charting.
And where are they today?
Why was there no continuity. The reason,Pay and pay. All these SERVICES, thinks that traders are money trees. Shaking them, and get money.

You know why exchange trading is not very successful in forex products?
The reason is the interbank market is still alive!!
Unlike proprietary products of stocks and shares. The interbank currencies are public domain.
Otherwise you would be charged clearing fee for trades, order filling fees to execute trades, server fees for trade access, lines fees for databoxes, Data feed fees for price database, service charges for accounts and broker fees for trades.

In the interbank, non of these fees exist.

When technical analysis became computer literate, came an onslaught of new fees. Fees for proprietary charting softwares, Fees for data feeds from data vendors, annual subscriptions for charting software to subdue in-build time bug, Fees for usbkeys.

Then computer people climbed on board, with hardware upgrades every few months to compliment software development. esp graphics cards.

So after all this shxt, I hope you may empathise my sentiments towards proprietary stuff.

regards
fti,

if thats the case how do we get interbanks feeds. heheh. Almost all the feeds here a broker called.

anyway i was just offering a sloution cause we were seeing gaps on the charts. i wasnt sure why. Its still free anyway
  • #5,528
  • Aug 19, 2008 11:17pm Aug 19, 2008 11:17pm
Quoting jest1081
fti,

if thats the case how do we get interbanks feeds. heheh. Almost all the feeds here a broker called.

anyway i was just offering a sloution cause we were seeing gaps on the charts. i wasnt sure why. Its still free anyway
Hi jest,

Thanks for the help. Much appreciated.

It doesn't matter who's data feed it is , except that it is accurate of market activity and not manipulated.

I hope one day , when the retail forex arena matures, there will be a public domain and accurate datafeed as benchmark for all.

First we have to feed the system, and hope that the champions will arise.

regards.
  • #5,529
  • Edited 11:44pm Aug 19, 2008 11:30pm | Edited 11:44pm
Hi ALL,

Wow, gotta find some help to carry all this euro to the vaults.
Some keep in deep storage, some keep at counter for daily use.
Some for my wife to go get somethings nice from Euroland.
Most for killing the bull for steak.

By the way, my friend's Jap Cars are all still for sale.
If you like we can sell you our japanese electronic appliances as well. Anyone?

Was thinking , if I could sell you , japanese songs as well, but you get that for free, courtesy of your broadband subscription and youtube. LOL
Lets see if there's any money in brokering (linking)you to those songs.

OMG, what a money face I have become. Out you temptations.
Inserted Video


regards
  • #5,530
  • Aug 19, 2008 11:40pm Aug 19, 2008 11:40pm
hello everyone

billionaire.... I think you mis-understood, I only trade eur/usd. I watch g/u and u/j as per Ro3k lessons.

why is Ben referred to as "helicopter"

am at work, having a quiet moment and trying to catch up on last nights posts.... gosh you guys can talk

2fx... sorry about your loss... but I really feel your best chance of success is to stick with this thread and practise on demo a/c...start small and build it up...those ant hills do grow I can vouch for that

joy
  • #5,531
  • Aug 19, 2008 11:49pm Aug 19, 2008 11:49pm
I think he is referred to "helicopter" Ben for an offhanded comment/joke he made at some meeting with a group of economists where he jokingly talked about throwing money out of a helicopter as a method to stimulate the economy.


har har har Ben...........
trading naked.......
  • #5,532
  • Aug 19, 2008 11:51pm Aug 19, 2008 11:51pm
Quoting piphitman
I think he is referred to "helicopter" Ben for an offhanded comment/joke he made at some meeting with a group of economists where he jokingly talked about throwing money out of a helicopter as a method to stimulate the economy.


har har har Ben...........

If you throw enough of it, over a wide enough area that will actually work.
{Promotion removed}
  • #5,533
  • Aug 19, 2008 11:59pm Aug 19, 2008 11:59pm
Good morning fti, ladies and gents!

Due to my knowledge background I love to play with statitics and probabilities.
Well - fti told us to scale our attacks and rescues based on fibonacci progression ( i.e. 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21, ...). If we like to and relating to our skills/capitalisation we can skip some levels.

Now let's talk about rescues:

Doing a rescue means that we are adding more troops to reaverage our initial-price, means to bring the initial-price more close to the current marketprice. If we do so, we need a special amount of pips to get to break even. The smaller our rescue sizes are, the more pips we need to breakeven.

In reverse this means, we need to identify/feel a situation (retracement, reversal, pullback) in our dance, that has good odds to give us the needed pips. The smaller our rescue-sizes, the higher the quality of the identified turnarround has to be.

So now my topic for discussion:

Why don't we adding the amount of rescue troops to get breakeven for let's say in extreme 2 pips?
Shouldn't it be much easier to identify situations in the flow that gave us very good probabilities to earn at least 2 pips?

O.k. I know that the exposure gets really big very fast. But on the other hand in most of the time I had only to deploy level 1 rescues.

p.s.: I don't want to discredit our well know MO. I just want to have some open minded discussion on that, cos it's blocking my brain for some days ...
  • #5,534
  • Aug 20, 2008 12:27am Aug 20, 2008 12:27am
Quoting jest1081
hi fti,

hehe. actually efx/mbt have a slew of softwares. Dont get it wrong. Ninjatrader is a stand alone software that could connect to multiple datafeeds/brokers. But the problem with efx feeds is...there are no backfills, so you don't get historical data as the ticks update emselves. hehehe. The only broker thats providing backfill is gain cap, so you'll have to connect to gain cap, get the data filled and the re-connect to efx to get realtime data

sure thats not prop. anyway ninjatrader is quite pricey if you are gonna get urslef the full version. But for charting purposes, i think it suffices.
stay away from GAIN Capital and forex.com!
  • #5,535
  • Aug 20, 2008 12:29am Aug 20, 2008 12:29am
Quoting Jairo
Hi resistance,

- low costs is very attractive for me . But I have seen many complaints about BIG (and frequent) spread fluctuations with them. This would be a disaster for scalping. Never tried, cannot tell anything.
- flexible lots - probably their best feature.
- bid-ask price on charts - if you like this, MT4 platform can be configured to show both lines, too. Need coding to show the numbers.
- higher leverage - very good... and dangerous game.

Has Oanda any restrictions on scalping? Do they really take the other side of your trades, as some people argue?

Thanks and good trading.
InterbankFX considers scalping when you open and close your positions within 3 minutes. Just FYI.
  • #5,536
  • Aug 20, 2008 12:37am Aug 20, 2008 12:37am
Quoting MaMood
Good morning fti, ladies and gents!

Due to my knowledge background I love to play with statitics and probabilities.
Well - fti told us to scale our attacks and rescues based on fibonacci progression ( i.e. 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21, ...). If we like to and relating to our skills/capitalisation we can skip some levels.

Now let's talk about rescues:

Doing a rescue means that we are adding more troops to reaverage our initial-price, means to bring the initial-price more close to the current marketprice. If we do so, we need a special amount of pips to get to break even. The smaller our rescue sizes are, the more pips we need to breakeven.

In reverse this means, we need to identify/feel a situation (retracement, reversal, pullback) in our dance, that has good odds to give us the needed pips. The smaller our rescue-sizes, the higher the quality of the identified turnarround has to be.

So now my topic for discussion:

Why don't we adding the amount of rescue troops to get breakeven for let's say in extreme 2 pips?
Shouldn't it be much easier to identify situations in the flow that gave us very good probabilities to earn at least 2 pips?

O.k. I know that the exposure gets really big very fast. But on the other hand in most of the time I had only to deploy level 1 rescues.

p.s.: I don't want to discredit our well know MO. I just want to have some open minded discussion on that, cos it's blocking my brain for some days ...
as long as you time it right, all methods and sizes will work.

but it could be that the 2 pips are never reached and then another 150 pips down, you are looking for another 2 pips rescue, but this time only 1000 x base. Overkill. You will be like the Americans in Afghanistan.. sending $100 000 rocket on a $10 tent. or was it $1mio per rocket?

Profit/loss from scout is so insignificant that you will get bored..
  • #5,537
  • Aug 20, 2008 12:50am Aug 20, 2008 12:50am
Quoting piccolo
InterbankFX considers scalping when you open and close your positions within 3 minutes. Just FYI.
Hi,
Yes , its alittle quiet.
So here's a little babbling.

About rules and terms that apply. (Bundleing)
One day, I am gonna open a restaurant, and I am gonna charge everyone who comes in to eat 50cts and they can eat all they can eat for that price. I will display steaks and pizzas and seafood cuisines and all exotic foods.

Since I only charge 50 cts, I must insist that payment be made before they enter. Otherwise, I have to employ cashier, then I cannot charge 50 cts.

Terms and conditions apply.

On entry , you will be served a gallon of water. And you have to finish that before you start eating.

And snce the que to dine is so long , I am afraid I will have to restrict your eating time to 1 min each patron, so as I can be fair ro all patrons.

Bon Appetite.

regards
  • #5,538
  • Aug 20, 2008 1:04am Aug 20, 2008 1:04am
Quoting piccolo
[...]
Profit/loss from scout is so insignificant that you will get bored..
Ok, you are right.
But if so, why should I take the risk of doing a rescue for a "peanuts-scout" at all?

To get things clear, I need to view at them in extreme scenarios. Therefor lets take a look at yesterdays EURUSD rally. Watching the 5m chart at 1255 GMT. Lets assume you were USD bull (the reason why should not be discussed) and deployed after the dip back to 14660 an attack. Before you went out with your attack you got coaught by the up move at 1310 GMT.

Should we take out the attack troops with a loss or should we prepare for an rescue mission?
And keep in mind that we didn't knew about the starting rally of that pair at that time.
If we prepare for a rescue, than there is the question again: Sharp 2 pips rescue or mild 20 pips rescue ...

Sorry for disturbing you with my prob, but it's affecting my thoughts badly ...
  • #5,539
  • Aug 20, 2008 1:07am Aug 20, 2008 1:07am
Quoting fti
Hi,
Yes , its alittle quiet.
So here's a little babbling.

About rules and terms that apply. (Bundleing)
One day, I am gonna open a restaurant, and I am gonna charge everyone who comes in to eat 50cts and they can eat all they can eat for that price. I will display steaks and pizzas and seafood cuisines and all exotic foods.

Since I only charge 50 cts, I must insist that payment be made before they enter. Otherwise, I have to employ cashier, then I cannot charge 50 cts.

Terms and conditions apply.

On entry , you will be served a gallon of water. And you have to finish that before you start eating.

And snce the que to dine is so long , I am afraid I will have to restrict your eating time to 1 min each patron, so as I can be fair ro all patrons.

Bon Appetite.

regards
Yeah - I sometimes thought by me: Why not to build up a retail broker business. The market is booming. There are so many unexperienced traders out there, which would xecept nearly all silly terms and conditions.

Easy money ....
  • #5,540
  • Aug 20, 2008 2:04am Aug 20, 2008 2:04am
Quoting piccolo
stay away from GAIN Capital and forex.com!
i dont have an account with them. DId you read me properly?
I was merely using gains data as a backfill, rest is all live prices from mbt....goodness lord!
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