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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #581
  • Feb 14, 2007 7:14am Feb 14, 2007 7:14am
Hi Mandoaddam,

I'm new on the forum, so take my advice lightly...

I'd wait to place a trade on any USD pair until after the retail sales....and possibly (I won't be placing a long term trade strategy) until after Bernake releases his speech today. Think the market could have large swings. Just being cautious.
  • #582
  • Feb 14, 2007 7:19am Feb 14, 2007 7:19am
Quoting tamkras
funny, if you would switch cable chart right now from 4HR to daily with all the SMA's in place, you will see it is sitting right on 89SMA, plus there is yesterday's doji.
What is your comment/opinion on this new thing you observed?
Any useful ideas out of this observation for us?
Thanks for postingg.
-Chandra
  • #583
  • Feb 14, 2007 7:23am Feb 14, 2007 7:23am
Quoting tamkras
Hi fnmdx,

I am using FXDD Meta4 too and I am aware that they have a different clock setting. You can not change it as it is server-related. It may sound somewhat odd to you but you can open a demo account with InterbankFX and your 4HR charts will be o.k. This is what I do.

I am using an InterbankFX demo account, but still not getting the same looking charts. Any ideas?
  • #584
  • Feb 14, 2007 7:23am Feb 14, 2007 7:23am
Quoting Tw0eleven
Hi Phillip, thanks for posting your chart. I don't know if you noticed, but I see a flaw with my chart. After the "tail" candle on my chart(post #520), I only had three 4hr candles before price skyrocketted upwards. Now if you look at your chart(post #523), you have four 4hr candles after your "tail" candle to go with your perfect round bottom. However, my chart didn't form that perfect round bottom, but instead MACD formed a straight line up.

I'm assuming my candles close at different times than yours so it's it's giving me different entry signals. Is there anything I can do to fix this? I've had quite a bit of losing trades lately and losing my confidence...but I think I have just figured out it's because of my charts. Any help would be appreciated. From anyone. Thanks!
The only way to get exact same charts would be go to MIG, where philllip is.
  • #585
  • Feb 14, 2007 7:24am Feb 14, 2007 7:24am
Hi TwoEleven,

my charts are a bit off too. pretty sure it is b/c of time zone/data feed. remember something in an earlier post re:the issue and remedy had to do w/changing the time zone on your charting options. i'm trying it w/my data....figure if i follow rules, s/r, ma's etc. that results should be pretty close especially if the system is robust. the trades still seem to trigger the same signals as Phil, just candles a tiny bit different (my charting platform seems to track slow during volatlity and i noticed a candle close before update in price....changed the whole look..sorta freaked me out...but the signal still came in the same...maybe your chart is doing the same w/your data?? Keep the confidence up...don't let a few losers make you question the calls made. sometimes it helps to backtest the last week of data and see what trades you would have taken and how your actuals fared. i've learned alot about my live trading style by looking back over the market.

sorry, didn't mean to make this post so long!

hope you capture many pips today
  • #586
  • Feb 14, 2007 7:25am Feb 14, 2007 7:25am
Quoting tamkras
if this eur/jpy red candle closes below 0 on the MACD, I am in. I'm itchy to jump in now with japanese markets working at full swing.

EDIT: EUR/JPY - short @157.93. Can't watch more - need some sleep.

stopped out - 36 pips loss. t'was mistake. I am out of this pair so far.
In this trade of yours, I do not see any reason to go short at all! Can you drop a line or two explaining the reason which made you to go short?
Thanks.
-Chandra
  • #587
  • Feb 14, 2007 7:29am Feb 14, 2007 7:29am
decided to close my position at 8:03 am. for a 21 pip gain on GU. got nervous about the retail sales and wanted my first 4 hr system trade to finish in the money. think the 200 could still be hit, but a bit nervous trading against such a pronounced downmove...w/so much of an upmove... so much for nerves of steel : )

Phillip, thanks for the 21! Pips and EMA
  • #588
  • Feb 14, 2007 7:32am Feb 14, 2007 7:32am
Thanks Irusoh and Pips4uandme. I just found the post with the link to MIG. I'll have a look at it. Thanks for the encouragement too!

Quoting pips4uandme
Hi TwoEleven,

my charts are a bit off too. pretty sure it is b/c of time zone/data feed. remember something in an earlier post re:the issue and remedy had to do w/changing the time zone on your charting options. i'm trying it w/my data....figure if i follow rules, s/r, ma's etc. that results should be pretty close especially if the system is robust. the trades still seem to trigger the same signals as Phil, just candles a tiny bit different (my charting platform seems to track slow during volatlity and i noticed a candle close before update in price....changed the whole look..sorta freaked me out...but the signal still came in the same...maybe your chart is doing the same w/your data?? Keep the confidence up...don't let a few losers make you question the calls made. sometimes it helps to backtest the last week of data and see what trades you would have taken and how your actuals fared. i've learned alot about my live trading style by looking back over the market.

sorry, didn't mean to make this post so long!

hope you capture many pips today
  • #589
  • Feb 14, 2007 7:53am Feb 14, 2007 7:53am
Hi Chandra,

I think that TamKras was pointing out that the market was undecided about a daily direction, but had found support at the 89 (like Phillip uses in this strategy).

Personally, I use the 62 & 89 ema's on my daily chart b/c they provide a great dynamic support/resistance. Also, the doji indicates indecision (which means today's news would be important). Also, on my daily chart, I use Stochastics at a modified setting, and yesterday's doji was in oversold territory....meaning a short was in the cards w/a break below the daily low (which was a few pips from a longer term support tl at 1.9421).

Just my take on the great post by TamKras.
  • #590
  • Feb 14, 2007 7:54am Feb 14, 2007 7:54am
TamKras,

You are a trading God/Goddess!! 180 more pips in your piggy bank!!! AWESOME!!!!!!!!!!
  • #591
  • Feb 14, 2007 7:55am Feb 14, 2007 7:55am
Quoting Phillip Nel
If the EurUsd is going to break above the T/L it will either comes bck to test it or it will come back to the 21EMA and then goes North. We are above 89SMA so the mood is bullish, The rule is that it might pull back to the 21EMA before proceeding. If round top is forming for a short the first target will be 21EMA.
Have a great trading day.
May I please draw attention of all to this posting of Phillip.

This site is growing fast, not just by size, but even from the point view of observations, opinions, etc. WE ARE ELEVATING, slowly but surely, to the level of Phillip's thinking. (Using trend lines, MAs, tails effect, games played by big guys, counter-trend trades, etc. instead of just looking at a bunch of mundane signals given by MACD and trading those signals mechanically.)

As a penalty to be paid to be this professionals, we rather confine ourselves to express our professional observations rather than IFs and BUTs. We have evolved to a higher plane, (thanks to Phillip), let us not slip down to our earlier level of guessing, wishing and praying. (Last time when I prayed God to save me from that ONE LOUSEY TRADE, He said he is too busy helping Millions of fools like me and cannot be of any help to me at that moment).

Now, coming back to the posting of Phillip (quote above), observe his professionalism! I do not find a single word in it that I can remove as redundent.
Did I hurt anybody, no my friends, I am trying to help ourselves.
-Chandra.
  • #592
  • Feb 14, 2007 7:55am Feb 14, 2007 7:55am
Quoting Tw0eleven
I am using an InterbankFX demo account, but still not getting the same looking charts. Any ideas?
I'm not sure but I think it's because Interbank uses GMT+1 and MIG , which is what uses Philipp, uses GMT+2.
  • #593
  • Feb 14, 2007 8:00am Feb 14, 2007 8:00am
Quoting Phillip Nel
If the EurUsd is going to break above the T/L it will either comes bck to test it or it will come back to the 21EMA and then goes North. We are above 89SMA so the mood is bullish, The rule is that it might pull back to the 21EMA before proceeding. If round top is forming for a short the first target will be 21EMA.
Have a great trading day.
Phillip,
See where is ERUSD now (2007-02-14, 14:00 GMT) and beam with pride for this posting of yours!
-Chandra
  • #594
  • Feb 14, 2007 8:09am Feb 14, 2007 8:09am
Quoting pips4uandme
Way to go, Turk87!

Entered my first trade using Phillip's system: Long cable at 1.9513 Profit target is the 200 (1.9590). Having a bit of difficulty w/the stop. Placed it at 1.9442 (below support line). But think I should move it closer to the 21...any thoughts? Plan to move to BE at 1.9554

Hope UK Claimmant count surprises w/better than expected number! Lots of event risks...of all nights to try a new system

Also, if Eur/USD can knock out the exotic option barrier at 1.3100 it should run to 1.3300 pretty easily (my opinion).

Thanks for all your work on teaching this system to us, Philip!

Hello Pips4uandme,
You made some great observations in your posting! thanks a lot for your efforts!
Will you please substantiate your observations with technical reasons so that we can understand the reason behind such observations and be educated ourselves? It helps us a lot. For example what was the reason for your prediction that the EUR/USD may go to 1.3300 if it crosses up beyond 1.3000?
Thank you. Great work!
-Chandra
  • #595
  • Feb 14, 2007 8:14am Feb 14, 2007 8:14am
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Chandra,

I think that TamKras was pointing out that the market was undecided about a daily direction, but had found support at the 89 (like Phillip uses in this strategy).

Personally, I use the 62 & 89 ema's on my daily chart b/c they provide a great dynamic support/resistance. Also, the doji indicates indecision (which means today's news would be important). Also, on my daily chart, I use Stochastics at a modified setting, and yesterday's doji was in oversold territory....meaning a short was in the cards w/a break below the daily low (which was a few pips from a longer term support tl at 1.9421).

Just my take on the great post by TamKras.
absolutely so! I like to see a bigger picture where I believe I need to find proof of turnaround. I feel more confident when I see support on daily. I pointed to strong confluence of patterns yesterday on the cable:

1). MACD long signal;
2). 4HR inside candle - please, see picture;
3). And I found proof on the daily chart - the chart was posted before.

That's why I jumped into trade although I was there later than others and decided to keep all my lots - even when I saw profit-taking starting @1.9472.
Attached Image
  • #596
  • Feb 14, 2007 8:15am Feb 14, 2007 8:15am
Quoting alcastro
I made some pips on the euro last night (I am in the EST zone). Could have done more but set a limit order at 1.3080 and went to sleep. Woke up this morning with this nice surprise.

I am not jumping into cable since it is already in the move.

An idea: what if every 15 min before the 4hr candle close we post our analysis about how we expect to trade the next candle? the conclusions of his analysis would be pretty obvious:
-go long
-go short
-stay out
-stay long
-stay short

Of course the most important analysis would be Phillip's.

On my end I would only be able to post m analysis at 9:45 PM, 1:45 AM, and 5:45 AM (15 mins before Metarader 4 hr candle close, EST).

Just a suggestion
Very good suggession as long as we stick to GMT time to avoid confusion. Also, we avoid many redundent postings and the time we spend.
Thanks.
-Chandra
  • #597
  • Feb 14, 2007 8:16am Feb 14, 2007 8:16am
wanted to share an observation that I made earlier today regarding Cable's price action when below the 365. noticed that price usually did not fall too far below the 365 ma as long as the 8 ema did not cross below the 365. When the 8 crossed below than a serious drop in price has historically occured. Longs should be carefully considered until the 8 starts to turn back up towards the 365. The 8 was very close to the 365 yesterday, and turned right before a merge occured. This observation was made w/ 3 years of data and held true when price pierced the 365 from above.

Just something to consider before placing a contra trend trade when the 8 and the 365 are on top of each other...
  • #598
  • Feb 14, 2007 8:18am Feb 14, 2007 8:18am
Quoting pips4uandme
TamKras,

You are a trading God/Goddess!! 180 more pips in your piggy bank!!! AWESOME!!!!!!!!!!
this is just the beginning of Phillip's GPS - Great Pipastic System.
  • #599
  • Feb 14, 2007 8:23am Feb 14, 2007 8:23am
Quoting Chandra
In this trade of yours, I do not see any reason to go short at all! Can you drop a line or two explaining the reason which made you to go short?
Thanks.
-Chandra
I accept criticism. I acknowledged the mistake - I saw downtrend for this pair below zero line of the MACD and did not wait for the 4HR close. My mistake and I am out of this pair for the time being.
  • #600
  • Feb 14, 2007 8:33am Feb 14, 2007 8:33am
May I please make some observations to all of us and especially to new our comers.

Don't stay in paper trading too long. Paper trading has many inherent disadvantages of its own. If you stay there too long, you may develop some bad habits (like fungus) and when you move to live trading, you go with fungus. I can make a list of the funguses we may develop but it is not important. Stay in paper trading ONLY for a few trades and jump in to live trading. Ah! not so fast, make sure you trade 0.01 of a mini lot and see how your money grows of falls IN CENTS!, yes, IN CENTS, not IN DOLLERS. THAT is the real-life trading; loosing in cents and making in cents. With $500 in the account, you can be a real-life trader for a long, long time to come and still be in the business. See how you made 12 cent today and feel proud of it! Feel the pain of losign 21 cents in a bad trade you made. Also, feel the confidence of completing a trade perfectly as per the rules of the game,even though you lost a few cents in that trade (This a very important feeling to be developed to be a successful trader).
Do this for a few months, until your trading activities become so mechanical, your decisions are made automatically (as we give accelerator when the green light comes on!). Then, ONLY THEN, when you have become a robot of your trading method, only then you go for a full-size lot where every pip is $10!
Hope this is going to be as much useful to you as it is to myself.
-Chandra
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