my first TP is at 1:1 , 164.20. looking forward to it
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #12,841
- Aug 19, 2008 5:41pm Aug 19, 2008 5:41pm
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
- #12,843
- Aug 19, 2008 5:59pm Aug 19, 2008 5:59pm
- | Joined May 2008 | Status: Nudist | 1,098 Posts
I think if people spent half as much time on actually reading the market versus coming up with new EA ideas, they'd be successful traders.
- #12,844
- Aug 19, 2008 6:19pm Aug 19, 2008 6:19pm
- | Joined May 2008 | Status: Nudist | 1,098 Posts
BEOB (or 3 day pin?) off of 365 EMA on EURUSD (failed pins previously highlighted on the 12th...think they were closer to neutral bars. funny how they look more like pins when you haven't traded in a week or two) Excuse the messy fibs.
Pin off of support, 50% retrace of latest big move, and 365 EMA on EURJPY (failed pin previously, guess she wasn't ready just yet). Scared of it staying inside the pennant formation that formed over the past year though, marked by descending trend line.
Lots of stuff compressing into pennant formations over the last few days. If there are more pairs doing it than not, you would think maybe to stay out of the market. Guess that's what demo trading is for!
- #12,845
- Aug 19, 2008 6:22pm Aug 19, 2008 6:22pm
- Joined Feb 2006 | Status: 'Try-hard' extraordinaire... | 2,151 Posts
EURUSD Charts
First chart shows daily bars.
Current Outside bar is placed at OK confluence...
* Trendline (derived from 'close' priced line chart)
* 76.4% Fibonacci retracement. Drawn from December lows to recent highs.
This isn't a A+++ trade, of course.
I'm willing to take this one though. It's a 'cute' (lol @ Jaroo) outside bar against a trendline with some Fibonacci confirmation and a 1st target that is not way too close.
First target is 1.4872 area. (marked by yellow arrows) I'll cover my a... right here.
Taking off two thirds of the position here this time around since it's not an ideal Risk/Reward ratio, but IS very likely to hit this first target. (I want strong cover for any remaining position. )
The fact that we have at least stalled for a few days makes it more likely to at least hit here. (if it doesn't, then... whatever ...who cares. It's less than 1% of my account. ) When we hit, I'll more than likely move the rest to break even.
The second chart (line chart of close prices) shows how i've chosen this TP level by taking the first swing-high close of the consolidation area from late last year.
NOW....
....for my other little marked area. The potential A++ trade.
(Take note, not 3 pluses! )
The BEST trade is going to hit at around about that blue box or so. (
Look at all the events that line up.... (bewwaaaahahahaaa!!!
)
* TWO trendlines. ...One you can't see because it's just about spot on with the other. One is drawn from weekly chart using bar lows. The second is derived from the line chart. ...Satisfies two groups of thinking on this subject. ALWAYS good.
* 38.2% Fibonacci retracement drawn on weekly chart (Chart 3) and defined by late 2005 lows to recent highs. (There is ALMOST another fib from the monthly chart too, btw. It's too far out of reach and would have to destroy the integrity of all the others to be hit.)
* Yellow support line. Draw it from weekly line chart. Daily line chart. Daily lows.. or whatever, I don't care. They're ALL close enough to that Fib line.
There could be more. Got enough. Don't have to look at moving averages pivots etc.
If we get down to this level. This trade is going to be a no-brainer once we get PA confirmation. A guy could wait for these types of trades and be VERY successful. And they come along more often than you think.
Will we get there though? ...My gut feeling (which I don't trade) says it's a magnet that will be reached over the coming weeks.
.
First chart shows daily bars.
Current Outside bar is placed at OK confluence...
* Trendline (derived from 'close' priced line chart)
* 76.4% Fibonacci retracement. Drawn from December lows to recent highs.
This isn't a A+++ trade, of course.
I'm willing to take this one though. It's a 'cute' (lol @ Jaroo) outside bar against a trendline with some Fibonacci confirmation and a 1st target that is not way too close.
First target is 1.4872 area. (marked by yellow arrows) I'll cover my a... right here.
Taking off two thirds of the position here this time around since it's not an ideal Risk/Reward ratio, but IS very likely to hit this first target. (I want strong cover for any remaining position. )The fact that we have at least stalled for a few days makes it more likely to at least hit here. (if it doesn't, then... whatever ...who cares. It's less than 1% of my account. ) When we hit, I'll more than likely move the rest to break even.
The second chart (line chart of close prices) shows how i've chosen this TP level by taking the first swing-high close of the consolidation area from late last year.
NOW....
....for my other little marked area. The potential A++ trade.
(Take note, not 3 pluses!
)The BEST trade is going to hit at around about that blue box or so. (
Look at all the events that line up.... (bewwaaaahahahaaa!!!
)* TWO trendlines. ...One you can't see because it's just about spot on with the other. One is drawn from weekly chart using bar lows. The second is derived from the line chart. ...Satisfies two groups of thinking on this subject. ALWAYS good.
* 38.2% Fibonacci retracement drawn on weekly chart (Chart 3) and defined by late 2005 lows to recent highs. (There is ALMOST another fib from the monthly chart too, btw. It's too far out of reach and would have to destroy the integrity of all the others to be hit.)
* Yellow support line. Draw it from weekly line chart. Daily line chart. Daily lows.. or whatever, I don't care. They're ALL close enough to that Fib line.
There could be more. Got enough. Don't have to look at moving averages pivots etc.
If we get down to this level. This trade is going to be a no-brainer once we get PA confirmation. A guy could wait for these types of trades and be VERY successful. And they come along more often than you think.
Will we get there though? ...My gut feeling (which I don't trade) says it's a magnet that will be reached over the coming weeks.
.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
- #12,846
- Aug 19, 2008 6:27pm Aug 19, 2008 6:27pm
- Joined Feb 2006 | Status: 'Try-hard' extraordinaire... | 2,151 Posts
There's strong weekly support here as well.
That actually makes it a lot more convincing.
Edit: Even before that, I was already happy with my original trend line. It was there before we hit this area.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
- #12,847
- Edited 10:19pm Aug 19, 2008 6:40pm | Edited 10:19pm
- | Joined May 2008 | Status: Nudist | 1,098 Posts
- #12,848
- Aug 19, 2008 6:43pm Aug 19, 2008 6:43pm
- | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: POP FIAT FASCISM | 1,106 Posts
- #12,849
- Aug 19, 2008 6:49pm Aug 19, 2008 6:49pm
- | Joined May 2008 | Status: Nudist | 1,098 Posts
WOW . I totally missed that one. Should edit my charts eh? LOL
That actually makes it a lot more convincing.
Edit: Even before that, I was already happy with my original trend line. It was there before we hit this area.
I agree with you my friend. We *should* see a bounce here, but it may be short lived (as you pointed out with resistance not too far up the line).
It may then attempt lower towards your A++ zone (here's where I'll be ready to jump on for hopefully a nice ride back up - PA pending of course).
- #12,851
- Aug 19, 2008 10:43pm Aug 19, 2008 10:43pm
- | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,836 Posts
EURUSD Charts
can i add to the confluence party?
diagonal resistance becomes potential support ... (something i learnt reading pring) ... off 50% fib from aug 07 to jul 08 ... potential targets at "A" "B" "C" (horizonatal resistance).
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
- #12,853
- Aug 20, 2008 12:58am Aug 20, 2008 12:58am
- | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,836 Posts
Hi!
Would You tell me the purpose of Your blue (trend?)line?
I don t understand that. I tied your A and C point with a line not A-B.
THX, Laszlo
basically, from what i now understand about trendlines, they are more than just something to identify a trend and don't have to be drawn only from lower, highs to lower, highs or vice versa. i didn't fully understand this until reading through pring's book (a recommended read by many in this thread ... including j16). trendlines can actually create diagonal support/resistance (versus just your run-of-the-mill horizontal support/resistance area) and price patterns have a tendency to bounce off these lines (hence, they have a way of generating their own type of "ppz"). so, ... where i have drawn the TL here, it shows a diagonal resistance where price has recently bounced from and given us this BUOB. the diagonal resistance shown might now give price some support to go up. as for this specific line, a line does not have to necessarily be drawn "to-the-pip" on a specific point. and in this case, i drew a line from A to B cutting through C (C is a point of "exhaustion" ... but that is a whole other concept i just don't think i could adequately explain).
i'm not sure if this is more confusing than helpful and perhaps a senior j16 trader can help clarify this concept for you more.
peace and good trading.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
- #12,854
- Aug 20, 2008 1:19am Aug 20, 2008 1:19am
WOW . I totally missed that one. Should edit my charts eh? LOL
That actually makes it a lot more convincing.
Edit: Even before that, I was already happy with my original trend line. It was there before we hit this area.
We leave no soldier behind.
- #12,856
- Aug 20, 2008 2:24am Aug 20, 2008 2:24am
All these talks about usd retracement against all pairs gave me the jitters. 3 nice PBs on 4HR I didn't take. I need to stop reading and watching all the media heads and just take the signal. And also one of the seniors here I think went long on gbp/usd on daily PB. That spook me too 
Dammit, I need to remember that I'm trading on different TFs.
Oh well, lessons learned.
Dammit, I need to remember that I'm trading on different TFs.
Oh well, lessons learned.
- #12,857
- Aug 20, 2008 2:32am Aug 20, 2008 2:32am
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
