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The Pouria Method

  • #381
  • Feb 13, 2007 11:32pm Feb 13, 2007 11:32pm
Quoting Se[V]eN
[left]



so wait till ma confirm a cross n open trade on the open candle...hope this rite..but the real problem is my broker put 10 pips spread on big news day...its turn me into monkey when after 4 hours open ten lots without seeing +ve pips...my strategy is to win 10 pips in one trade n i need to win 50 pips per day...is this method gonna produce 5 signal per day??
it is better don't trade before or during news
  • #382
  • Feb 14, 2007 12:32am Feb 14, 2007 12:32am

Quoting amenlo9
it is better don't trade before or during news



GBPUSD signal are about to coming for short position but not yet confirmed..
if we got a signal confirmation before gbpo news...do u take action??...
anyone can answer this...and i hope forexexpert can write his opinion...
"Analysis Is Hard But Trade Is Easy"
  • #383
  • Feb 14, 2007 1:19am Feb 14, 2007 1:19am
?? i dont see a short position anywhere today on gbp/usd.

i just made 15 pips going long though.
  • #384
  • Feb 14, 2007 2:46am Feb 14, 2007 2:46am

Quoting bobsaget
?? i dont see a short position anywhere today on gbp/usd.

Quoting bobsaget

i just made 15 pips going long though.


yup its not crossed..im waiting for it to cross
"Analysis Is Hard But Trade Is Easy"
  • #385
  • Feb 14, 2007 3:19am Feb 14, 2007 3:19am
steer clear during news time.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #386
  • Feb 14, 2007 7:01am Feb 14, 2007 7:01am
Hello all. These are the results I have from 9am EST yesterday to 8am EST today.

9 trades total.

5 profitable
4 losses

Net gain/loss of +5 pips

SL is at 20 for each pair and TP are as defined in original Pouria method.

So, cumalative results....

Day 1 = +40pips
Day 2 = -7pips
Day 3 = +5pips

Slowing down a little...but we shall see!!

BP
  • #387
  • Feb 14, 2007 7:54am Feb 14, 2007 7:54am
Quoting BearPaw
Hello all. These are the results I have from 9am EST yesterday to 8am EST today.

9 trades total.

5 profitable
4 losses

Net gain/loss of +5 pips

SL is at 20 for each pair and TP are as defined in original Pouria method.

So, cumalative results....

Day 1 = +40pips
Day 2 = -7pips
Day 3 = +5pips

Slowing down a little...but we shall see!!

BP
which pairs u traded?
  • #388
  • Feb 14, 2007 8:40am Feb 14, 2007 8:40am
I started late yesterday afternoon, around the end of the NYC session. So far the EA has dropped me in 5 demo trades and all 5 have been successful.

GBP +20
EUR +11
GBP +20
EUR +20
JPY +15

total +86

My demo account was at $5,100 when I stared and is now at $5,492.76 an increase of 7.7% in one day. I am just going to keep the computer on and the EA active all week. The JPY trade was opened and closed as I slept last night.

So far so good for this strategy. I'm using a 50 pip SL and a 15 or 20 pip TP as is recommended on the first page. I have loaded the EA for only four currencies: GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY.
  • #389
  • Feb 14, 2007 8:42am Feb 14, 2007 8:42am
BTW, the first two trades, GBP and EUR, were closed manually by me, The next three were all opened and closed by the EA as per my set TP parameters.
  • #390
  • Feb 14, 2007 8:57am Feb 14, 2007 8:57am
Quoting 1Sundevil
BTW, the first two trades, GBP and EUR, were closed manually by me, The next three were all opened and closed by the EA as per my set TP parameters.
I am trying to catch up with this EA.
I have two questions, if you don't mine.

What platform are you using and where is the EA to download

Appreciate your help.

AJ
  • #391
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:16am Feb 14, 2007 9:16am
Quoting ajasso
I am trying to catch up with this EA.
I have two questions, if you don't mine.

What platform are you using and where is the EA to download

Appreciate your help.

AJ
I'm using this on the MT4 platform.

If you go to Forums: trading systems: you'll see a link for the Pouria Development Thread. Be sure to read the whole thing and use version #3.
  • #392
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:09am Feb 14, 2007 10:09am
Quoting 1Sundevil
I'm using this on the MT4 platform.

If you go to Forums: trading systems: you'll see a link for the Pouria Development Thread. Be sure to read the whole thing and use version #3.

Thank you

AJ
  • #393
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:39am Feb 14, 2007 10:39am
Quoting 1Sundevil
I started late yesterday afternoon, around the end of the NYC session. So far the EA has dropped me in 5 demo trades and all 5 have been successful.

GBP +20
EUR +11
GBP +20
EUR +20
JPY +15

total +86

My demo account was at $5,100 when I stared and is now at $5,492.76 an increase of 7.7% in one day. I am just going to keep the computer on and the EA active all week. The JPY trade was opened and closed as I slept last night.

So far so good for this strategy. I'm using a 50 pip SL and a 15 or 20 pip TP as is recommended on the first page. I have loaded the EA for only four currencies: GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY.
I am using the EA...beta 3...with all the currencies that Forexpert recommended except CADJPY cause my broker does not have it.

yesterday I was entered into GBP trade once and usdjpy trade twice.

Here is what was entered yesterday and the results. My TP is as Forexpert recommended. My SL is at 20. Maybe the stop loss needs to be changed? Have not looked at that.

NZDUSD +25
EURCHF -20
EURCHF +15
GBPUSD -20
CHFJPY -20
AUDJPY +15
USDJPY -20
CHFJPY +15
USDJPY +15

Currently there are no open positions. A very slow day so far.

BP
  • #394
  • Feb 14, 2007 11:42am Feb 14, 2007 11:42am
spudfyre, i really like the simple pouria variation you have and will like to help in the backtesting manually. have you done any more backtests. also with the backtest results you have shared, did you include spread, if so how much?
thanks

Quoting Spudfyre
Yes I agree. I was hoping someone could develop an EA for Simple Pouria to make the backtest more thorough. I thought the numbers were encouraging for EURUSD and wanted to share them with everyone in hopes of a thorough back and forward test.
  • #395
  • Feb 14, 2007 12:23pm Feb 14, 2007 12:23pm
Quoting gtketum
spudfyre, i really like the simple pouria variation you have and will like to help in the backtesting manually. have you done any more backtests. also with the backtest results you have shared, did you include spread, if so how much?
thanks
I left out spread since it seems to vary between brokers. Basically that adjusment has to be added in. I see that the new EA on the EA thread is being modified to allow one to adjust to the Simple Pouria method. The 30 S/L and 20 TP were quick and dirty numbers just by eyeballing the numbers.

I'm going to crunch out EUR/GBP today and do some statistical analysis to find the optimum S/L and TP levels for that pair. I'll include spread this time based on my broker.
  • #396
  • Edited 6:24pm Feb 14, 2007 1:43pm | Edited 6:24pm
deleted found error
  • #397
  • Feb 14, 2007 1:45pm Feb 14, 2007 1:45pm
My results for yesterday:
Zero pips.

I didn't take any trades. I stayed away from cable obviously, and I was watching dollar/yen. I really thought it would cross, and never did on my screens. I was hoping to play that one.
I don't have anything automated, everything is completely discretionary over here. If I miss a signal, then I miss a signal. If I don't like the pair that night I don't touch it. As I get comfortable with the method and the times of day these things cross, I'll get more in gear to trade more often. But it's as simple as that.
Last night just wasn't my night.

Tonight I'm unsure. I may stay away from anything Euro around 6am. Don't know about GBP retail sales.

I'll try to write a script for my broker, but it may take a while since I never had. Looks like a combo of Visual Basic and C++. That way it can be an alarm clock.
  • #398
  • Feb 14, 2007 2:51pm Feb 14, 2007 2:51pm
EURGBP H1 TP 13 Pips (10 pips + 3 pip spread) Net gain 10 Pips
Jan 2007 to Current

Trade is open on opening price of a candle where it is confirmed the 5 MA line has crossed the 75/85 MA.
If stop loss is not hit but trade retraces, then trade is closed at the close of the candle where the 5 MA is confirmed to have crossed the 75/85 MA.
Increase next open trade after a retrace of 1 Lot per retrace or lowest lot size to cover previous loss.

TP is 10 pips plus 3 pip spread (13 pips)
SL is 15 pips plus 3 pip spread (18 pips)

14 Trades Total


MACD FILTER STATISTICS (1/14 relevance)
----------------------------------------------
1 trade where MACD signal did not cross and would have prevented a bad trade
4 trades where MACD signal was 1-2 hours later than MA cross with no real benefit or problem. I.e. price not significantly different.
1 trade where MACD signal was 3 hours early, no benefit or problem.

STOP LOSS and RECROSS STATISTICS
--------------------------------------
0 times Stop Loss hit
6 trades Recrossed at -10, -11, -10, -12, -11, -8 pips with spread
1 time trades recrossed 2 consecutive times
13 Pips maximum Stop Loss required for all trades (with +3 pip spread)

NET GAINS (with +3 PIP Spread)
-------------------------------
8 Trades Successful
6 Trades Recrossed (losers)
8 Trades of 1 lot
5 Trades of 2 lots
1 Trade of 3 lots
0 net pip losses with retrace carry over

14 trades x 10 pips net = 140 pip gain max
6 trades recrossed (non-winners) resulting in 80 pip gain max

Net gain 67 pips out of 80 possible (83.75%) (1 trade broke even from 2 consecutive losses)

Chasing the Max
----------------
Trading after first 10+3 pip gain with the stop loss moved up to where the first 13 pip gain was made. i.e. each stop loss is the spread (3 pips).

8 Trades
Ride for 20 pip gain (23 pips with spread)
5 trades winners for net 100 pips
3 trades stopped out for -9 pips

Net gain 91 pips.

Total net gain 67 + 91 pips = 158 pips
  • #399
  • Edited 6:23pm Feb 14, 2007 5:52pm | Edited 6:23pm
deleted found error
  • #400
  • Edited 11:13pm Feb 14, 2007 7:26pm | Edited 11:13pm
EA dropped me into trade #6 about 20 min. ago.

EUR/JPY S @ 157.90 and closed out for +20 @ my TP of 157.70.

So through two days of demo trades the EA has initiated six trades, all positive, for a total of +106 pips.

I hope this isn't a fluke. Will continue to leave the program open, allowing for EA trades as I sleep, for the rest of the week.

BTW, I just added the EA to the EUR/JPY about 15 min before this trade was opened. I now have six currencies that the EA demo trading on with the EUR/JPY and the USD/CAD as the latest two added.
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