No Brainer Trades | Page 150 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY

Similar Threads

No brainer fundamental trades 55 replies

This time... I'm Keeping MY MONEY (BRV - No Brainer Trades) 3 replies

The Koala System (No brainer) 127 replies

EUR/GBP SHORT for No Brainer 67 replies

Selling USD and YEN is a no brainer. 12 replies

Attachments: No Brainer Trades
Exit Attachments

No Brainer Trades

  • #2,981
  • Aug 18, 2008 10:11am Aug 18, 2008 10:11am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
While we're on the topic of posting indicators, here's one for TD Combo. This is probably the first and last I'll ever post here.

I know the question is coming so here's the indicator attached. Now, no more discussions about this! If you would like to learn more about DeMark studies please google and you can find plenty of stuff but the explaination for this is a little complicated and I honestly dont want to get get started on it its not a 2 minute thing. Your cooperation in this matter is o' so greatly appreciated .
Do you ar anybody have MQ4 version of TD_Combo AHA 0_1
Cheers
F
  • #2,982
  • Aug 18, 2008 10:18am Aug 18, 2008 10:18am
Quoting Paj
Just noticed GBPCHF for a short lets see if it holds?
Nice call - EUR/CHF played along in synch at the same time....good work!
  • #2,983
  • Aug 18, 2008 10:30am Aug 18, 2008 10:30am
Quoting Paj
Just noticed GBPCHF for a short lets see if it holds?
Fantastic call on that short.

I am new to this thread, but not new to the factory. The best part about this thread is it is so basic, and it took me right back to the roots of my training. The basic stuff, that we all use as primary analysis all the time.

I however unfortunatly have once blown an account, and whilst it was a shock at first, i look back now and know exactly why. I look forward to learning more along the way.
  • #2,984
  • Edited 11:36am Aug 18, 2008 11:25am | Edited 11:36am
1.5850 area , s/r & exact 50% of last swing. High probability long if price gets there. Since it is making lower lows there is higher risk oportunity for small bounce at blue rectangle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf.GIF Size: 20 KB
  • #2,985
  • Aug 18, 2008 11:36am Aug 18, 2008 11:36am
Quoting pastork
currently shorting usd/chf was long on this pair took abt +100 pips, hoping it bounces off .0911 then i wud go long again, also short on gbp usd.8676 tp at 8515, sorry for the late call,had problems logging in
Great call on the Swiss there Pastork - sounds like you had a good day!!!
Time hides Nothing
  • #2,986
  • Aug 18, 2008 12:19pm Aug 18, 2008 12:19pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: !!nobrain.gif Size: 19 KB


Many traders look at 1-2-3 tops and bottoms.
  • #2,987
  • Aug 18, 2008 12:37pm Aug 18, 2008 12:37pm
1 2 3s ... head and shoulders have always been really vague and open to interpretation.... in other words they just don't work for me.
and looking at your chart I absolutely do not see it....
My trade choice would be to short the pair.
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #2,988
  • Aug 18, 2008 12:54pm Aug 18, 2008 12:54pm
Further to my earlier post on this topic (http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2920), I've been doing some work on refining my spreadsheet to help me spot good S+R levels, to classic BRV criteria.

Using the worksheet "Sorted level analysis", I'm looking for a mixture of:

1. Candles with big spikes.
2. Levels that have been both Support and Resistance.
3. Levels that have held well, both recently and historically.
4. Multiple hits either at the same level, or within a very small number of PIPs.

For now, I've been experimenting with 30 years worth of GBP/USD (Cable) OHLC numbers from 1978 to the present day. Herewith latest Beta level of the spreadsheet, which has 2 parameters, one for minimum spike size (75 seems to work OK so far), the other for the closeness of multiple hits.

Both these parameters are variables, so one can try out different values to see what works best.

Levels that pass both tests get flagged as an S+R Candidate, so I end up with a tight S+R zone, maybe 5 to 15 PIPs in size typically, to put on my charts, as per standard BRV approach.

In these market days, when price is often getting into areas it hasn't been for some years, I think this might be useful to help home in on those tight S+R zones that are likely to yield good PIPs.

Only reason I am experimenting with the Daily chart is that I have data going back 30 years, and I can't yet work out how to download the equivalent 4-hour chart data for 30 years - seems to stop at 1999. Ideally I would like to do a similar exercise using 4-hour data, as Billy Ray teaches.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Daily S+R level spotter spreadsheet v2 beta.zip   1.7 MB | 1,532 downloads
  • #2,989
  • Aug 18, 2008 1:17pm Aug 18, 2008 1:17pm
Remember the basics, loudonii...

If your trade requires that you look back through 9 years of data using a specialized custom-made tool that most institutional traders don't have access to...well I refer you back to the original *concept* that makes trading s/r so valuable.

That is, that spotting levels should be obvious and easy. If you can spot a level at a glance, then so can all the other traders (including, primarily, institutional traders) out there. If they can spot it, then they will create orders at it, and those orders drive price action and cause the reaction that we look for with this type of trading.

If it's obscure and difficult to find a level, then it's much less likely that it will hold and cause a price reaction.
  • #2,990
  • Aug 18, 2008 1:26pm Aug 18, 2008 1:26pm
Quoting Ninto
Remember the basics, loudonii...

If your trade requires that you look back through 9 years of data using a specialized custom-made tool that most institutional traders don't have access to...well I refer you back to the original *concept* that makes trading s/r so valuable.

That is, that spotting levels should be obvious and easy. If you can spot a level at a glance, then so can all the other traders (including, primarily, institutional traders) out there. If they can spot it, then they will create orders at it, and those orders drive price action and cause the reaction that we look for with this type of trading.

If it's obscure and difficult to find a level, then it's much less likely that it will hold and cause a price reaction.
as far as i know, institutions do not look at chart to find supports and resistances, they simply look into an order sheets and than they see where all sell and buy orders are located.

remember that fundementals rule, and order sheet is a fundamental thing. my FX mentor and guru thaught me.
lol
  • #2,991
  • Edited 2:19pm Aug 18, 2008 1:37pm | Edited 2:19pm
Quoting Ninto
Remember the basics, loudonii...
Fair comment.

However, as I said in my post, I personally find it more difficult to spot S+R levels when price - as now - gets in to an area where it hasn't been recently. Scrolling horizontally back and forward on a 4-hour chart, I find it quite difficult visually to correlate levels when they go back many years.

That's why I started putting this spreadsheet together, then decided to share it, that's all. Some people seem to find the concept useful, based on the feedback I've had.

Let's remember here - all I am doing is looking at OHLC numbers and looking for big spikes, R-turned-S levels, and lots of hits. There is nothing obscure or difficult about that, I don't think.

That's exactly what we are all doing visually every day anyway - all a candlestick or bar chart is is a visual depiction of OHLC numbers, so it's no different to look at the same numbers in spreadsheet format, to my view.

Each to his own, of course.
  • #2,992
  • Aug 18, 2008 1:49pm Aug 18, 2008 1:49pm
Long EURUSD @1.4700
Type : Scalp
SL: 10 pips
TP :30 pips

What happened today is upper break of trendline as
seen on pic, w formations turned upside down after
breakout what means we can expect that resistance
turned to support and we could find it @ 1.4700
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.JPG Size: 52 KB
  • #2,993
  • Aug 18, 2008 2:25pm Aug 18, 2008 2:25pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: !!nobrain.gif Size: 32 KB


Loudoniii, you like monthly data... there's 3,600 months of GBPJPY data analyzed in real time for nearby support and resistance levels. Also in real time how many bars closed above and below the current price. This does all the work for you.
  • #2,994
  • Aug 18, 2008 2:36pm Aug 18, 2008 2:36pm
Quoting CodeMuncher
Attachment

Loudoniii, you like monthly data... there's 3,600 months of GBPJPY data analyzed in real time for nearby support and resistance levels. Also in real time how many bars closed above and below the current price. This does all the work for you.
CodeMuncher, i really appreciate your effort, but I do not like this
1-2-3 auto S&R plotter. It is because reminds me on Center of Gravity
and other similar indicators, which looks superb when you review historical data, but as soon as you start to use it, then it goes onto "repaint" mode.
  • #2,995
  • Aug 18, 2008 2:57pm Aug 18, 2008 2:57pm
Quoting CodeMuncher
Attachment

Loudoniii, you like monthly data...
Thanks for the input.

Another important criterion that I am now working on is the spike size, as it is the big spikes, eg on the 4-hr chart.

These help us see where price has jumped off a particular level like a scalded cat, hence likely to get a good reaction next time it is hit.
  • #2,996
  • Aug 18, 2008 3:10pm Aug 18, 2008 3:10pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: !!nobrain.gif Size: 22 KB


Just for fun, there's monthly 1-2-3s.
  • #2,997
  • Aug 18, 2008 3:17pm Aug 18, 2008 3:17pm
Quoting manistra
CodeMuncher, i really appreciate your effort, but I do not like this
1-2-3 auto S&R plotter. It is because reminds me on Center of Gravity
and other similar indicators, which looks superb when you review historical data, but as soon as you start to use it, then it goes onto "repaint" mode.
On your trading platform there most likely is a HIGH OF THE DAY and LOW OF THE DAY. This changes during the day. Is that repainting? The problem lies not with the "repainting" indicator. The problem lies with how the trader uses it!

Of course, you don't know if a 1-2-3 is a 1-2-3 until AFTER the bar closes. So you wait for the bar to close. What's the big deal? The 1-2-3 is not a trigger, it is a "wake up call" so you can be ready to enter at the appropriate time.

The same is true for the 3 Level ZZ Semafor. Once you understand how to use the indicator, the "repainting" problem is no longer a problem.
  • #2,998
  • Aug 18, 2008 3:20pm Aug 18, 2008 3:20pm
Quoting loudoniii
Thanks for the input.

Another important criterion that I am now working on is the spike size, as it is the big spikes, eg on the 4-hr chart.

These help us see where price has jumped off a particular level like a scalded cat, hence likely to get a good reaction next time it is hit.
Unless you use tick data, how do you know what happened first, the high or the low unless you make an assumption. Perhaps I don't understand how you define "spike" and where price "spiked from".
  • #2,999
  • Aug 18, 2008 3:31pm Aug 18, 2008 3:31pm
Quoting CodeMuncher
Unless you use tick data, how do you know what happened first, the high or the low unless you make an assumption. Perhaps I don't understand how you define "spike" and where price "spiked from".
It's easy to do visually, difficult to do in an excel spreadsheet. A spike looks like a spike, but what does it calculate to? Hard to say, as often there are movements that would appear as spikes if calculated "hidden" within choppy ranges. The ones you want to look at are the ones that stab out of the rest of the recent activity around the spike...but how recent? Over how long will you look at it? You become timeframe dependant when looking at spikes, because what looks like a spike in a 15 m chart becomes noise in a 4hr chart, and what looks like a spike in a 4hr chart looks like a trend+reversal on a 15m chart.
  • #3,000
  • Aug 18, 2008 4:05pm Aug 18, 2008 4:05pm
Hi all,

I've compared the performance of NB trades with other strategies which actually also faded the market for the period 05/14 - 08/04. Look at Bollinger Bands for example. With very conservative MM tt produced over 800 pips for a pair for that period. If you traded lets say 10 pairs you could produce 8000 pips total.

My preliminary conclusion is (of course, based on my observation): at least for ranging market this strategy is no better than any other fading strategy ( I also tryed RSI and Stoch).

More general conclusion: if you know you are in ranging market - fade it (any fading startegy would work, for example NB trades). If you know you in a trend - follow it (for example reverse NB trades)

So,trading is not about strategies. Trading is about choosing either to fade or follow the trend depending on market type

But how can we predict market type? Any "no brainer" for this?
1 trader viewing now