4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

Patience is born out of discipline.

Great stuff Phillip. This shows how experienced you are. I see what is trading (whatever market you trade) about theoreticaly but not yet practicaly. I am fighting this difference all the time. I found out that making one trade a day is ok for me, but not trading for more than two days makes me umconfortable and then i start forcing trades by entering not existing signals.
As you say, discipline is key and need to be mastered as well as this strategy - lot of to learn

Hey bsh:

I was at sea for about 10 days and it takes me a good week to catch up with things every time..I should be here for a while though with no long breaks.

Gradually coming back to life here....

Hi. Welcome back. Hope you catch up with all there is to catch up. Hope you make lots of pips.

Hey Phillip! I'm 'getting there'...

A few 'fundamental ramblings' here...With the USD getting stronger and the oil markets losing a few I'm wondering how the current hurricane season here in the US might affect the USD. Soon to be hurricane Fay is entering the Gulf of Mexico (should get some rain/wind where I am) but this will be east enough not to cause any oil platforms to be evacuated. But, oil seems to have settled at its current level and may be looking for another reason to the upside and a hurricane in the gulf that heads towards Texas east to Alabama (no oil platforms of Florida) might be the primer for that. I'm wondering if this happens if the USD will look for a reason to weaken and the EUR moves back to the upside. IF we get a storm in the Gulf and oil pops up with the USD staying weak, this should strengthen the fact that the greenback (and possibly the US economy) is slowwwwly getting back on its feet. This is a lot to ask for but it'd be interesting to see how this pans out. But, in all honesty I wouldn't want to deal with another hurricane slamming my doorstep. Still paying for my roof courtesy of hurricane Ivan. A nice 5 foot rolling swell would be nice to take the longboard out on though...

Just a thought or two..

Just to proof that the Market Rhythm is also working on Stocks.

Hey Phillip. What charting software are you using for the stock charts? My thoughts are using the 4 hr rhythm to find those stock to write covered calls on....just curious.

Is anyone looking at the TC on the EU. The sl is too big for me right now. I'm going to wait for a pullback to 4690, if it happens, and then set my sl at 4735 above the indicating candle. Comment?

Edit: 1st profit target hit at 4670, set the rest to BE

On Weekly chart, applying Fib. Extensions to the std. Bollinger Band pinch (downwards) we see a 162% level down around 1.4400 and the 89 sma is moving up to that area. On 30 minute chart the std. Bollinger Band is also pinching and preliminary application to it of the Fib. Extensions (downwards) gives these levels....100%=1.4652, 162%=1.4638, 262%=1.4614, 400%=1.4583, and 538%=1.4549....all of which are within 14 Day ATR. These levels represent possible exit targets if the price moves downwards after the pinch.

We need a movement up or down to "set" the pinch firmly and may have to reapply the Fib. Extensions if the pinch changes. If the first move is upwards (against the longer trend), then we wait for the price to roll over and move down again....sometimes the first move out of a band pinch is not the "real" move, and the price will roll over and the true move that is consistent with the longer trend begins.

So far this session we have had multiple hits around the resistance area of 1.4700. If this holds as resistance, then surely we will see more progress downwards in the longer term trend. But one never can predict these things. The immediate range seems now to be between 1.4700 high and around 1.4660 low. For an entry it may be safest to wait and see if there is a strong move down between the 50% and 100% levels on the 30 chart....essentially, wait to see if there is a strong move down between 1.4665 and 1.4655, a strong move that breaks previous low of 1.4658 from two sessions ago. A more aggressive entry would be to enter near the range high, in the 1.4690s, and be quick to exit if it breaks upwards thru the 1.4700 resistance area instead of going back down.

Entry Notation: 1:56am EST - It just ticked a low of 1.4656, 2 pips below the low of 1.4658 from two sessions ago. This can be seen in the second candle dropping out of the 30 minute chart pinch of the std. Bollinger Band. Personally, entry now as it is pulling back may be ok as this break downwards out of the pinch seems strong. Just my opinion.

First Exit Notation: 2:36am EST - It is ticking around 1.4637, our 162% level on the 30 minute chart. This is about 20 pips down from the Entry Notation price area. It is maybe about 60 pips down from the aggressive entry in the 1.4690s.

Re-entry Notation: 3:03am EST - I pulled some off the table at 1.4635 and looked for a pullback to the upside, where I put it back on the table at 1.4651. I still have some from original aggressive entry at 1.4690 which I am letting ride for now.

Progress Notation: 5:33am EST - I took several hours of sleep. Woke up to find the price had spiked back up to my original entry at 1.4690 and is now back to the 1.4650 area. Seems the last few days have been lots of movement without really going anywhere. Makes me think the bank players and hedge funds are jockeying this around while they offload their long positions and take on short positions in preparation for another, maybe sizeable, leg down in the longer trend. Just speculation. Anyway, no damage done, and I got some rest.

Progress Notation: 6:53am EST - We have yet another stab up at the 1.4700 area. Here I am adding to my short trade. If it breaks up hard instead of progressing down, I will close the entire trade. Otherwise, with an ATR of around 150 and the range this session of only 73 when it dropped to 1.4630, I expect this can go 60-70 pips even lower this session, to 1.4560s.

Progress Notation: 11:00am EST - In the last 4 hours this again dipped into the 1.4730s and rose back to resistance area of 1.4700, definately rangebound. The price swing this session has been 82 pips. It averages close to 150 pips! There is a lot of activity, but not much price change. And with the European session now closed I am thinking I should not expect suddenly this will regain downward momentum and add 70 more pips to the session range, when only the US market is the one remaining active. It could happen, but more than likely I will be nursing this trade into Wednesday's session.

Here is the trade that I posted earlier. The indicating candle was too large to put a sl above. So I waited for a pull back (the spinner candle) to enter at a better price. I entered around 2 lots at 4687 and 4692 (the price moved that much between placing my orders which irritated me a bit). I set my 1st TP at 4670 which was hit and set the other half to BE. I took the 2nd profit at 4650.
Thank for the advise for those who preach patience, particularly Phillip. A few months ago I would of sold at much worse price with a sl too big, but this time I waited. I told myself it would be ok if I missed this trade because there would alway be another one. This was particularly difficult since I was on vacation during that big down move from 5600. Here is my trade below

i see a sHs pattern on macd right on the weekly support .now looking for a buy place .
whTS ur idea?

The "head" is lower than the "shoulders", so this is more a Double Top than a Head & Shoulders formation. However, the entire Double Top could turn out to be the "Head" in a much bigger Head & Shoulders formation that has not yet started to build the right shoulder!

We could be looking at a major reversal of the EuroDollar, one that starts a down trend that could last for many seasons.

Think about what you said. to have discipline is to have patience. Patience is part of having discipline!

so yes it was very good stuff u just need to look deeper!

Nice trade Moorelands.

PPI out in a few..

the sHs in macd i mean .i bought after secong green macd candle
edit:took 30pips profit

I think this sHs leads to a consolidation around 8ema and 1.4700 level.

Liked the tail on the JPY off the resistance at 110.38.
Lots of tails on the 1 Hour too.

Hookem...

I took the USDJPY BOZ on the MACD (it was a bearish outside bar), and I was stopped out with the tail two bars later (should have re-entered with the large tail, but I was burned and staying on the side line).

Did you pass on this trade for any reason? I know nothing is 100%, and if not for the long tail, I would have had a profit. I know that often a BOZ, with a break below the 21 EMA and a bearish outside bar make for a high probability trade.

Here is my trade (below the red arrow)...

talking about macd, have you ever tried it to find divergence on the charts. i have tried it and it looks very pomising

Sorry bout the trade. There wasn't anything wrong with it, but the SL was rather large. Playing the tails is usually the most reliable trade on the Yen. To have success, you HAVE to forget about losing trades. I had a terrible trade a few days ago. I think we were in that one together. The highlighted candles are the ones I traded. I was able to get 10 pips out of the prior candle (+20 on one lot, BE on the other).
The 110.38 area is pretty strong. My bias is that it's going to the 89, but keep in mind the 8 EMA on the daily.
One other thing is that we have an established down TL off of the tail.
Hang in there! JPY is a booger bear to learn, but it's not a bad pair once you learn it's rhythm.