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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #16,621
  • Aug 17, 2008 1:23pm Aug 17, 2008 1:23pm
Quoting ira
Interesting... as far as I understood, the idea behind your actions was - the amount of buy orders triggereed at that level. I took a bit different approach, I saw it as a move out of consolidation. But your idea is very intersting, amazing how much I can learn from you. Thank you for all you do!
Your analyses was the correct and safest one. I made some pips on the downmove and took the odds on for a possible turnaround after 1.4800 was reached and a possible tripple bottom as well. That pullback to the breakout level was the correct analyses as you waited for it. I was asleep when that happened. Luckily I made some small pips on that move to get to BE with remainder.
  • #16,622
  • Aug 17, 2008 9:07pm Aug 17, 2008 9:07pm
The Double Top has completed the run down (height of tops from base, subtracted from base). However, applying fibonacci extensions to a Bollinger Band squeeze (I am using a 10 length with deviation of 1.5 inside the stanadard Bollinger Band) we have a 262% level around 1.4362. Coincidentally, this is almost where the 89 sma is approaching.

Personally, I am looking for an upwards "pullback" this session and then more move down towards this 262% level. I have attached the Weekly Chart from which I derived this data.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurodollar double top on weekly #2.gif Size: 49 KB
  • #16,623
  • Aug 17, 2008 11:23pm Aug 17, 2008 11:23pm
The Euro found support on a weekly trendline and the Pound bounced off a weekly .618 Fib.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur weekly.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp weekly.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #16,624
  • Aug 18, 2008 12:20am Aug 18, 2008 12:20am
So far this session, it has been traded up to a high of 1.4765, which is 105 pips from the previous session low. This would make possible a nice 100+ pip run back down without having to strike new lows....which may be what the Central Bank and hedge fund traders have in mind. In any case, a downward direction trade is all I venture in, following the longer term trend, and the 1.4765 session high is a good place to start looking for a setup as the price moves south (if it continues to do so). A low price this session in the 1.4620s is possible based on 14 Day ATR data.
  • #16,625
  • Aug 18, 2008 12:36am Aug 18, 2008 12:36am
hello everyone, it's a long time that I didn't post here, I just came back from my hometown where I spend my vocation days there. It is good to have a rest and not to focus on forex. My last trade was 8th Aug. which I shorted eu with half lots and hold it till now. I think when clear trend appeared, the best way is to hold a position with a time. Wish you all get lots of pips, now to me, the work to catch the rhythm of the market started already
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #16,626
  • Edited 2:55am Aug 18, 2008 2:18am | Edited 2:55am
Quoting traderathome
So far this session, it has been traded up to a high of 1.4765, which is 105 pips from the previous session low. This would make possible a nice 100+ pip run back down without having to strike new lows....which may be what the Central Bank and hedge fund traders have in mind. In any case, a downward direction trade is all I venture in, following the longer term trend, and the 1.4765 session high is a good place to start looking for a setup as the price moves south (if it continues to do so). A low price this session in the 1.4620s is possible based on 14 Day ATR data.
1.4760s area has held as resistance (session high) withstanding multiple hits. 1.4730 is the recent significant low. So I am thinking if this breaks below 1.4730 it will signal a short entry for a trade down to the low of the previous session of 1.4658, and possibly to the 1.4620s based on ATR.
  • #16,627
  • Aug 18, 2008 3:27am Aug 18, 2008 3:27am
Quoting traderathome
1.4760s area has held as resistance (session high) withstanding multiple hits. 1.4730 is the recent significant low. So I am thinking if this breaks below 1.4730 it will signal a short entry for a trade down to the low of the previous session of 1.4658, and possibly to the 1.4620s based on ATR.
Good morning
I think that the down move has already started when I look at the perfect roud top in 1H.
  • #16,628
  • Aug 18, 2008 6:06am Aug 18, 2008 6:06am
A nice way down on E/U
Sell 1.4751
Close 1.47034 (+42 pips)
  • #16,629
  • Aug 18, 2008 8:23am Aug 18, 2008 8:23am
Hi all

Does someone know of a breker whom uses GMT+1 for there time feed on their charts

Thank you
  • #16,630
  • Aug 18, 2008 8:32am Aug 18, 2008 8:32am
Quoting sarasxxx
A nice way down on E/U
Sell 1.4751
Close 1.47034 (+42 pips)
An entry short at 1.4751 with a close of trade at 1.4734 is a 17 pip move, not 42 pips.

I am not saying it is a bad/small move, but it is not 42 pips. Counting pips made on a trade should be based on a per unit (mini-lot, lot, etc.) and hence this is a 17 pip move. If you count pips any other way then it becomes meaningless. After all, a rich person could put 100 lots on a 1 pip move and claim they made 100 pips! And they did, but it is not how most could trade! Nor does it speak of how good the trade was!

Pips per unit is the only measure that is universal and telling.
  • #16,631
  • Aug 18, 2008 9:29am Aug 18, 2008 9:29am
i took this trade beleiving 1-there will be a TC signal soon 2-market rhytm 3-little stoploss
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu1.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #16,632
  • Aug 18, 2008 9:34am Aug 18, 2008 9:34am
Short GBP 1.8655
TP1 1.8635
SL 1.8690
  • #16,633
  • Aug 18, 2008 10:21am Aug 18, 2008 10:21am
Quoting saka
hello everyone, it's a long time that I didn't post here, I just came back from my hometown where I spend my vocation days there. It is good to have a rest and not to focus on forex. My last trade was 8th Aug. which I shorted eu with half lots and hold it till now. I think when clear trend appeared, the best way is to hold a position with a time. Wish you all get lots of pips, now to me, the work to catch the rhythm of the market started already
welcome back saka.Congratulation to your 10 days short eu.That´s power of patience.
  • #16,634
  • Aug 18, 2008 10:22am Aug 18, 2008 10:22am
Hey Saka, nice short there!

Looks like the EU is trying to make a 100% retracement back down to the low of 4300 from the Dec 12, 2007. This is the daily chart, couldn't squeeze the 4hr down enough to get all the info in. 1 hr is hanging around the pivot....
Attached Image
  • #16,635
  • Aug 18, 2008 10:50am Aug 18, 2008 10:50am
Possible support levels reached. Might see an attemp to retest the support level forming a higher low.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 Hour Strategy 1.gif Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 Hour Strategy 2.GIF Size: 39 KB
  • #16,636
  • Aug 18, 2008 10:52am Aug 18, 2008 10:52am
Quoting Palmer
Hey Saka, nice short there!

Looks like the EU is trying to make a 100% retracement back down to the low of 4300 from the Dec 12, 2007. This is the daily chart, couldn't squeeze the 4hr down enough to get all the info in. 1 hr is hanging around the pivot....
heyyy body
where were u ? i missed ur posts and charts
  • #16,637
  • Aug 18, 2008 11:00am Aug 18, 2008 11:00am
Quoting Phillip Nel
I am using this 4 Hour strategy only for the last month as I have papertraded for 2 years trying everything and or system I could find. (I am trading equities for almost 10 years)I have decided that I will only go live(after some losses-not to serious) after I have studied the field of forex and are satisfied that I have a system that works. I do believe that we are trying to make it to impressive and difficult. This system is simple and easy to understand. I have backtested and forward tested it over more than 200 trades and it gives 300+ pips per month. I never had more than two consecutive losses. I never use a stoploss bigger than 50. There are enough chances to ignore the ones bigger than 50.

I am using this strategy only on the EurUsd and the GbpUsd. Have not tested it on other.
I hope that you will find some use for it and that it put you on the road to financial independence.

This is my list of major pdf's and mp3's from this thread.

Go to Palmer's website where you will find the most inportant stuff of this system then come back and go to the page and post numbers as listed below. http://www.fxtradeblog.com/

TITLE................................... ................................... ..............................PAGE........POST

BEFORE GOING ANY FURTHER, PLEASE GO TO PAGE 681 POST 10212 AND PAGE 870 POST 13038 AS WELL AS PAGE 742 POST 11119 AND LISTEN TO "THE HEART OF THIS SYSTEM" AND SAVE THAT GRAPH. THEN GO TO PAGE 289-290 POST 4335 AND STUDY THOSE 13 LESSONS BY HEART. THEN START AT THE BEGINNING AND ESPECIALLY THE LIST OF INFORMATION BELOW.

For those understanding my English with difficulty go to Page 682 Post 10227 for a written copy of "The heart of this system"

TITLE................................... ................................... ..............................PAGE........POST

INTRODUCTION FOR ALL NEWCOMERS .........................................................1035 ......15519

4 Hour MACD Forex Strategy.pdf ................................... ................................1.. ...........1
Planning your Trade.pdf.......................... ................................... ..................1..............1
Consolidation Management.pdf..................... ................................... .............15...........215
Clock_v1_3.mq4..................... ................................... ................................28. ..........410
MACD_H4_300_v100.mq4............... ................................... ..........................31....... ....461
Trend trading with MACD.pdf........................... ................................... .........32...........468
Setting up MA and MACD.pdf........................... ................................... .........43...........639
The question about papertrading.pdf................... ................................... .......48...........713
Presentation1.pdf.................. ................................... .................................54 ...........797
woodchuck.pdf...................... ................................... .................................60 ..........890
Breakout Positioning.zip (graph post 1130).............................. ........................76......... 1130
Euro Trendline.zip (graph post 1159).............................. ................................78. ........1159
MACD Signals.zip (graph post 1166).............................. .................................78 .........1166
Market Rythm AudUsd.zip (1197)............................. ................................... ...80.........1197
1Hour Strategy.zip....................... ................................... ............................92..... ....1372
1 Hour Strategy.pdf....................... ................................... ..........................92....... ..1372
1Hour Strategy 1.zip.............................. ................................... ..................98.........1456
1Hour Strategy 2.zip.............................. ................................... ................103..........1535
1Hour Trendcontinue Patterns.zip....................... ................................... ......145..........2165
Stoplosses.zip..................... ................................... ..................................1 53..........2281
Three little sisters.zip (graph post 2287).............................. .........................153....... ..2287
Pivot Auto.mq4........................... ................................... ..........................198...... ....2970
MACD_Colored_v103.mq4 + word file............................... .............................223... .......3342
Breakeven.zip (graph post 3748).............................. ................................... 250..........3748
FiboPivots4HMACD.mq4............... ................................... ...........................270..... ......4043
4Hour and 1Hour Supporting Signals.zip (graph post 4063).............................. ..271..........4063
4H calculation spreadsheet.zip.................... ................................... .............273.........4095

13 lessons
L1 Introduction.zip................... ................................... .............................290... .......4336
L1 Introduction 1.zip.............................. ................................... ...............290..........4336
L2 Tsunami.pdf........................ ................................... ............................290.... .......4337
L2 Tsunami.zip........................ ................................... ............................290.... .......4337
L3 Tecnical vs Fundamental Analysis.zip....................... ...............................290. ...........4338
L4 Market Rhythm Part 1.pdf.............................. ................................... ...290............4339
L4 Market Rhythm Part1.zip.......................... ................................... .........290............4339
L4 Price Motion 2.zip.............................. ................................... ..............290............4340
L4 4Hour and 1Hour Supporting Signal.zip......................... ............................290.... .......4340
L5 Drawing Trendlines.pdf..................... ................................... .................290...........4341
L5 Drawing Trendlines.zip..................... ................................... .................290...........4341
L5 Trendlines.zip..................... ................................... .............................290... ........4342
L6 Market Emotion.pdf........................ ................................... ..................290...........434 3
L6 Market Emotion.zip........................ ................................... ...................290...........43 43
L7 Flight Preperation.pdf.................... ................................... ...................290............4 344
L7 Flight Preperation.zip.................... ................................... ....................290...........4 344
L8 Anatomy of a Trade.pdf.......................... ................................... ..........290...........4347
L8 Anatomy of a Trade.zip.......................... ................................... ...........290...........4347
L9 Major MACD Signals.pdf........................ ................................... .............290...........4348
L9 Major Macd Signals.zip........................ ................................... ..............290...........4348
L10 Exercise MACD1.pdf.......................... ................................... ..............290...........4349
L10 Exercise MACD1.zip.......................... ................................... ...............290...........4349
L11 Trade Example.pdf........................ ................................... ..................290...........435 0
L11 Trade Example.zip........................ ................................... ...................290...........43 50
L12 Papertrading.zip................... ................................... ...........................291..... .....4351
L13 Conclusion.zip..................... ................................... ............................291.... ......4352

Rhythm, Motion and Emotion Explained ..........................................................791..........11852

Study by Hart.zip (graph post 4496).............................. ..............................300.. ........4496
4h MACD price movement rules.doc.......................... ................................... 301..........4504
Range Bound Rhythm.pdf......................... ................................... ...............304..........4549
Range Bound Rhythm.zip......................... ................................... ................304..........4549
Breaking down Motion from Monthly to 4Hour.pdf.......................... ..................304.........4551
Breaking down Motion from Monthly to 4Hour.zip.......................... ...................304.........4551
Not to be wiped out early.zip.......................... ................................... .........328.........4911
Which way is the trend.pdf.......................... ................................... ............329.........4934
Which way is the trend.zip.......................... ................................... .............329.........4934
Normal retracement strategy.zip....................... ................................... .........344........5155
Pulling the Trigger.zip........................ ................................... ......................376........56 27
Emotional Triggers.zip....................... ................................... .......................376........5 629
Phillip Nel- Three Little Sisters- written copy.zip........................... ...................394........5910
Lessons 1 to 7.zip.............................. ................................... .....................395........592 5
Lessons 8 to 13.zip............................. ................................... ....................396........5926
Risk Management 1.zip.............................. ................................... ...............396........5927
Risk Management 2.zip.............................. ................................... ...............396........5927
Phillip Nel- Risk Management 1- Written copy.zip........................... ...................397........5943
Phillip Nel- Risk Management 2- written copy.zip........................... ....................397.......5946
Phillip Nel- 1Hr Supporting 4Hour- 4June2007- written copy.doc........................... 458.......6862
1Hour Supporting 4Hour.pdf.......................... ................................... .............458.......6862
Phillip Nel- StopLosses- 11Mar2007.doc...................... ................................... ..494......7399
Landing the Profit.zip (graph post 7415).............................. ............................495.... ..7415
Phillip Nel Landing the Profit.doc......................... ................................... .........499......7485
Breakout.zip....................... ................................... ................................... .501......7513
Breakout trading.pdf........................ ................................... .........................501......7 513
Phillip Nel- Breakout Trading 18 Oct2007.doc........................ ............................502.... ..7519
Range Bound Trading.pdf........................ ................................... ...................535......8013
Range Trading 1.zip.............................. ................................... ....................535......8013
Range Trading 2.zip.............................. ................................... ....................535......8014
RangeTrading_1_and_2.doc........... ................................... .............................535... ...8020
Knowing the System.zip......................... ................................... ....................538......8065
Knowing the system.doc......................... ................................... ...................541......8103
Planning Your Trade.zip (graph post 8349).............................. ..........................557...... 8349
Phillip Nel Planning Your Trade Post 8349 Page 557 9Nov2007.doc....................... ...558......8368
4h_MACD_FX_Strategy_Locked_TF.mq4.. ................................... ......................576......8628
Money_Management_Eng.xls........... ................................... ............................610.... ..9139
Position Calculator.xls..................... ................................... ...........................610..... .9148
Trailing Stops.zip.......................... ................................... ............................636.... ..9535
Temp.zip........................... ................................... ................................... ...640......9587
Trailing stop post 9535.doc........................... ................................... ..............640......9592
Temp 17December 2007 post 9587.doc........................... .................................64 1......9612
PhillipNel Lesson4 PriceMotion2 Post 4340.doc........................... .........................644.....96 54
PhillipNel 1Hour Supporting 4Hour Post4063 Page271.doc........................ .............648......9709
candlesticks.zip................... ................................... ................................... ...650.....9736
Large Candle Entry Spread.zip......................... ................................... .............651.....9760
PhillipNel Emotional Triggers written copy post 5629 page 376.doc...........................6 51....9764
PhillipNel LargeCandle Entry Spread page 651 post 9759 21Dec2007.doc....................652....9771
Market Volatility By Rebecca..............................................................................859....12884
Positional Trade ............................................................................................1035 ...15521

EDIT: For a summary of the 4 hour system go to page 289 Post 4335.
this is grate stuff, i like MACD

you should put all the info from this thread together and publish a book and make lots of greeeeennnn$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$4
lol
  • #16,638
  • Aug 18, 2008 11:10am Aug 18, 2008 11:10am
Quoting lossa
this is grate stuff, i like MACD

you should put all the info from this thread together and publish a book and make lots of greeeeennnn$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$4

Hahaa - good idea Phillip!
  • #16,639
  • Aug 18, 2008 11:39am Aug 18, 2008 11:39am
I really gave it a thought to put it in a book format but after the last 2 months I saw people falling off because of a lack of discipline and not waiting and trading the high probability setups. It looks like the discipline needed for this strategy might just be too high.
The discipline however on any type of trading must be of a very high standard.

Here in South Africa our All share(excluding resources) was down allmost 30% less then a month ago from Nov2007. I started Jan2008 with R300 000 and are currently at R382 000 a gain of +27% on a market that is currently still 18% down for the year. All this because of a solid strategy and discipline.
In 2006 and 2007 the gain was 26% and 37%. My target is an average of 30% per year. I am 11years into stock trading. As you can see that in this years portfolio I only made my first deal on the 1st February2008. It took discipline not to make a single deal for Jan2008.

People become professionals in their jobs after years at school and varsity and practical experience added to the theoretical makes them very good at their jobs yet they want to trade like professionals in less then 1 year.

If you want to succeed in Forex trading you will have to have excellent discipline and train and practice very very hard.

I am only showing this to let you see that it is possible but it takes hard work.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Temp.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Temp 1.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #16,640
  • Aug 18, 2008 11:52am Aug 18, 2008 11:52am
Quoting Phillip Nel
I really gave it a thought to put it in a book format but after the last 2 months I saw people falling off because of a lack of discipline and not waiting and trading the high probability setups. It looks like the discipline needed for this strategy might just be too high.
The discipline however on any type of trading must be of a very high standard.

Here in South Africa our All share(excluding resources) was down allmost 30% less then a month ago from Nov2007. I started Jan2008 with R300 000 and are currently at R382 000 a gain of +27% on a market that is currently still 18% down for the year. All this because of a solid strategy and discipline.
In 2006 and 2007 the gain was 26% and 37%. My target is an average of 30% per year. I am 11years into stock trading. As you can see that in this years portfolio I only made my first deal on the 1st February2008. It took discipline not to make a single deal for Jan2008.

People become professionals in their jobs after years at school and varsity and practical experience added to the theoretical makes them very good at their jobs yet they want to trade like professionals in less then 1 year.

If you want to succeed in Forex trading you will have to have excellent discipline and train and practice very very hard.

I am only showing this to let you see that it is possible but it takes hard work.
I would say disciplin is important, and patience is the key . Good stuff anyway. well done
lol
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