I'm baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack..............Was away on a little trip and just got back into town tonight and havent really read through the thread but just wanted to say hello to everyone in no brainer land.
I got a question while I was away: I was looking at EUR declining, with oil doing the same thing, and same with gold. I said "I'm going long at x price". First thing that was said to me was "but oil is declining, and so is gold; dont you think its a little too hot to get in right now?"
My answer was pretty simple: everything has to reverse at some point. Oil doesnt lead EUR, nor Gold, nor does EUR lead either commodity - again, we're here to forecast, and a reversal has to happen at one point or another; our job is to find it.
Here's whats been happening in this entire downtrend: The second a new low is made, a rush of sellers come in and start jacking the price down another 20-50 pips to the next support and resistance level where it becomes time to take a BREAK. I've been playing breakouts on these lows up and down throughout this turmoil with some pretty good success; in fact, many of these breakout methods overall have been paying extremely well in this environment, when bounces from highs are difficult to identify.
Here's where we're at now:
In terms of USD upwards pressure, the possibility is still on the radar. So much money has been pumped into it in the past few weeks, reversing it all is going to be slow and arduous. JPY is going to be the slower mover, so we've got a lot of good opportunities to play yen crosses in the meantime. If anything, JPY is going to move down a lot faster than it moves up, with exporter interests selling USD easily. Look for option protection of 111.00, 111.50 and 112.00. The only thing that could push up the pair pretty quickly are new carry trade buyers, which have been reported to be dipping in pretty fast in the past few days; so we could move either way. EJ is floating above 161.50......a breakout of this downside clears the road for 159.00....just a heads up. Best time to trade the yen crosses is in Asia, in my opinion, as the interest in buying and selling is at the top of the radar during this time.
Anyway - gotta get back to posting some new trades - all the older ones, as I wrote a few days back, are duds. I'll get around when I can. Hope all has well - reading what I have sounds like some money's been made which is obviously good to hear. I still have to read through everything.
I got a question while I was away: I was looking at EUR declining, with oil doing the same thing, and same with gold. I said "I'm going long at x price". First thing that was said to me was "but oil is declining, and so is gold; dont you think its a little too hot to get in right now?"
My answer was pretty simple: everything has to reverse at some point. Oil doesnt lead EUR, nor Gold, nor does EUR lead either commodity - again, we're here to forecast, and a reversal has to happen at one point or another; our job is to find it.
Here's whats been happening in this entire downtrend: The second a new low is made, a rush of sellers come in and start jacking the price down another 20-50 pips to the next support and resistance level where it becomes time to take a BREAK. I've been playing breakouts on these lows up and down throughout this turmoil with some pretty good success; in fact, many of these breakout methods overall have been paying extremely well in this environment, when bounces from highs are difficult to identify.
Here's where we're at now:
In terms of USD upwards pressure, the possibility is still on the radar. So much money has been pumped into it in the past few weeks, reversing it all is going to be slow and arduous. JPY is going to be the slower mover, so we've got a lot of good opportunities to play yen crosses in the meantime. If anything, JPY is going to move down a lot faster than it moves up, with exporter interests selling USD easily. Look for option protection of 111.00, 111.50 and 112.00. The only thing that could push up the pair pretty quickly are new carry trade buyers, which have been reported to be dipping in pretty fast in the past few days; so we could move either way. EJ is floating above 161.50......a breakout of this downside clears the road for 159.00....just a heads up. Best time to trade the yen crosses is in Asia, in my opinion, as the interest in buying and selling is at the top of the radar during this time.
Anyway - gotta get back to posting some new trades - all the older ones, as I wrote a few days back, are duds. I'll get around when I can. Hope all has well - reading what I have sounds like some money's been made which is obviously good to hear. I still have to read through everything.
