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  • #2,921
  • Aug 15, 2008 1:14pm Aug 15, 2008 1:14pm
Quoting seesaw
At this point i would be looking for oil to fall further...
After it failed to rise to 120, after hitting 117 on Wed, I have to agree. Got mighty close to $110 today.
  • #2,922
  • Aug 15, 2008 1:16pm Aug 15, 2008 1:16pm
Quoting strada
It's not a stupid question and I'm not sure if there is an obvious answer. The question raised was 'how can we use this?'. In order to do so we need to know which one of the instruments is in the driving seat, who's on the horse and who behind in the cart.

I have oil on screen all the time alongside various pairs, the Dow and FTSE and if you look at these on low TF's it is very difficult to determine which one is driving the others. In recent days it has looked like oil driving $/dow around with the others following suit, but although I trade them I wouldn't put money on which one is the driver. Anyone care to nominate??
Definitely can seem like a chicken or egg situation.
The only times I can say for sure are when either one is dealing with a change in fundamentals (i.e. oil supply/demand or dollar %).
  • #2,923
  • Aug 15, 2008 1:17pm Aug 15, 2008 1:17pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Hey thread,

I am not sure betting against the buck is a no brainer nowadays but things are looking good for a rebound in the kiwi.


I decided to leave this thread for a while after things got a bit heated with somebody a couple of weeks ago.
I went long kiwi too.
  • #2,924
  • Aug 15, 2008 4:32pm Aug 15, 2008 4:32pm
Crude but brilliant work imo.

I hope I wont be the only one to spot this jewel for no desire of some sort of gratitude by yourself. Explanation=nb style=easy to digest and assimilate. Props for that too ! I personally thank you for the time you spend tweaking this spreadsheet.

I have one question though and the enjoyment of this "dirty little helper" will be full.

"4. I calculated the Delta number of PIPs between succeeding levels, ie the number of PIPS between any given level and the one immediately below it - shown in column "Delta"."

Could you be kind enough ti simply elaborate on your decision for doing that. I have a vague understanding of the term "vega" tracking the magnitute of price change of a derivative relevant to the change of price of the underlying financial instrument. How and why, would you use it in layman`s terms. In this case=me

tnx in advance
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #2,925
  • Aug 15, 2008 6:37pm Aug 15, 2008 6:37pm
Quoting loudoniii
I attach my very 1st Beta version of simple spreadsheet to help spot potentially good R+S levels, in line with classic BRV principles. All levels are based on Monthly Highs and Lows, dating back from 1978 to the present day.

Here's how it works:

1. I downloaded from my MT4 broker, ODL Securities, all the OHLC numbers for each month for the last 30 years or so, in this case for Cable (GBP/USD).

2. I labelled High as "Res" for Resistance, and Low as "Sup" for Support, shown in the "Sup / Res" column.

3. I sorted these in descending sequence of level, in column "Level".

4. I calculated the Delta number of PIPs between succeeding levels, ie the number of PIPS between any given level and the one immediately below it - shown in column "Delta".

5. In the yellow highlighted cell at the top right hand of the spreadsheet, you can put in a number which represents the closeness / tolerance of the cluster of levels that you want, for example "Less than 6 PIPs" means to look for levels that are within 5 or fewer PIPs of each other.

6. A column shows "R+S Candidate" where a level and the level below it are within the given tolerance of PIPs, eg within 5 or fewer PIPs.

To use the R+S level calculator spreadsheet, just enter your chosen number of PIPs in the yellow box, then go look for clusters of R+S Candidate levels in the spreadsheet.

This is a very crude prototype of what we could do with this sort of calculator but it is already useful. For example, it spotted the neat cluster of levels between 1.8503 - 1.8523 where price action bounced 100+ PIPs today. Please note that this is a mixture of Resistance-turned-Support and Support-turned-Resistance levels.

Example picture of this attached - I show this as a Weekly chart, for clarity, but remember that it is calculated on Monthly High / Low numbers.

If you get too many R+S Candidates, just reduce your number of PIPs in the yellow box.

Caveats are, of course:

(a) Nothing is a substitute for the Mark I Eyeball when spotting good R+S levels, so continue to apply all normal BRV R+S principles.

(b) The calculator won't tell you if a given zone has previously been used and abused, so use your own common sense on that question.

(c) As always, apply your own judgement when choosing S+R levels.

(d) Where the spreadsheet shows "R+S Candidate", it's not just that row, it also includes the row beneath that, so if there are 4 x R+S Candidate rows shown, there are actually 5 levels. This is a bit basic, I know, but it is V1.

The good news is that this simple little spreadsheet will help you apply 30 years worth of Monthly Resistance + Support levels very quickly - have you tried finding great historical R+S levels when price reaches a new level ?!? I find myself getting dizzy going from right to left on my screen trying to find R+S levels from years past.

We also know that Resistance-turned-Support and Support-turned-Resistance levels are the most powerful, so the spreadsheet will help you spot which levels have been both Resistance and Support, and how many times, and how recently.

MT4 lets you download OHLC data from any time period of chart, so it would be easy to generate the Res+Sup numbers for any pair. I've tried different timeframes, but Monthly seems to work best - Weekly and Daily tend to produce too many level hits and just get too confusing, I find.

The spreadsheet is very unsophisticated at this stage, but I wanted to post this up here to see if you folks thought it might be useful to help find R+S levels.
This looks/sounds a lot like codemuncher's post that he got yelled at for. I guess I just don't understand how things work in these forums.
"War is Peace; Freedom is Slavery; Ignorance is Strength."
  • #2,926
  • Aug 15, 2008 11:33pm Aug 15, 2008 11:33pm
Quoting loudoniii
\
The spreadsheet is very unsophisticated at this stage, but I wanted to post this up here to see if you folks thought it might be useful to help find R+S levels.
Interesting thanks for sharing Loudoniii
Time hides Nothing
  • #2,927
  • Edited 5:13am Aug 16, 2008 12:09am | Edited 5:13am
Quoting djambazov84
Could you be kind enough ti simply elaborate on your decision for doing that. I have a vague understanding of the term "vega" tracking the magnitute of price change of a derivative relevant to the change of price of the underlying financial instrument. How and why, would you use it in layman`s terms. In this case=me

tnx in advance
Hi Djambazov84 !

The "Delta" field has no complex scientific definition - it's dead simple.

All I am trying to do with the "Delta" field is to calculate how close together the various hits on a level are, within 1 PIP, 2 PIPs, 3 PIPs, etc - ideally the Delta is 0, ie the hits are on the same level exactly.

If we have a couple of instances of a level acting as Support, and another couple of instances of the same level acting as Resistance - within a small number of PIPs of each other, this suggests that that level will be a strong S+R level next time is hit.

All it is doing really is providing a numeric way of doing exactly the same thing that Billy Ray recommends we do visually. The difference is that the spreadsheet enables you instantly to see Monthly levels back 30 years, and up to the previous month. This is tough to do visually as it means scrolling back and forward horizontally on the screen.

I've included the yellow highlighted cell on the spreadsheet so you can experiment with different values of Delta, eg "Find levels within less than 7 PIPs of each other" means it will highlight as "S+R Candidate" all levels that are 0 - 6 PIPs away from the next level.

We are looking for clusters of levels, preferably some Support and some Resistance levels, close together - in the perfect case, the levels are completely coincident, ie right on top of each other. Real life is not usually quite so precise, but it is surprising how often a High one month is exactly the same as a Low perhaps 3+ years later.

Once we have identified a small cluster of levels close together, we can define a potential S+R zone as 1.2345 to 1.2360, say, and draw this zone on the charts.

There we can use our own visual judgement as to whether that makes a good S+R zone or not, by classic BRV S+R rules. Some of the hits on this S+R zone may be relatively recent, some may be historic, maybe many years back.

Thanks for the interest.

Cheers, Loudoniii
  • #2,928
  • Edited 5:14am Aug 16, 2008 12:17am | Edited 5:14am
Quoting garciaFX
This looks/sounds a lot like codemuncher's post that he got yelled at for. I guess I just don't understand how things work in these forums.

Hi Garcia !

For the avoidance of doubt, please let me say that this is nothing like Codemuncher's posts, which were primarily about indicators.

Billy Ray's S+R trading approach uses only S+R levels on the charts, no indicators.

All I have offered is a simple spreadsheet that lets you do numerically exactly what Billy Ray has been teaching us to do visually.

At the end of the exercise, what results is a series of pairs of horizontal R+S lines, each pair highlighting a tight S+R zone on the chart, based on the Monthly historical records of the last 30 years.

This is totally in line with BRV's philosophy of S+R trading.

Look at the example chart below, which I also included in my original post, which should illustrate this clearly.

You then trade off your charts - on whatever timescale you choose - as per normal BRV S+R trading approach.

Hope this helps.

Best regards, Loudoniii
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable 8503 to 8517.jpg Size: 107 KB
  • #2,929
  • Aug 16, 2008 3:41am Aug 16, 2008 3:41am
Quoting CindyXXXX
I don't remember Codemuncher once replying to repeated requests to post his "magic" indicators for us to check out...

So why show them them in the first place?
Peace. Purrrrlease don't start this up again. Enough already!
  • #2,930
  • Edited 3:04pm Aug 16, 2008 2:50pm | Edited 3:04pm
Quoting loudoniii
Hi Garcia !

For the avoidance of doubt, please let me say that this is nothing like Codemuncher's posts, which were primarily about indicators.

Billy Ray's S+R trading approach uses only S+R levels on the charts, no indicators.

All I have offered is a simple spreadsheet that lets you do numerically exactly what Billy Ray has been teaching us to do visually.

At the end of the exercise, what results is a series of pairs of horizontal R+S lines, each pair highlighting a tight S+R zone on the chart, based on the Monthly historical records of the last 30 years.

This is totally in line with BRV's philosophy of S+R trading.

Look at the example chart below, which I also included in my original post, which should illustrate this clearly.

You then trade off your charts - on whatever timescale you choose - as per normal BRV S+R trading approach.

Hope this helps.

Best regards, Loudoniii
Well, just cause I'm a Mexican doesn't mean I am stupid. You draw a line and an indicator displays a number. Your line is an indicator, it indicates something or else it would be meaningless. One of the indicators codemuncher posted shows how many times the current price was a support or resistance level. There is a tolerance input to allow you to specify how many pips. The other indicator shows how many times the current price and the next 5 price levels above/below were support or resistance levels. If you use a MN1 chart, then you get the monthly numbers. Are you trying to tell me that isn't what this thread is about? I may be Mexican but I am not that stupid.

So to me it looks like you used the idea from codemuncher's posts to develop a spreadsheet rather than have a real time indicator on the screen. Seems like you are making it harder rather that simpler.

I like the idea of having the indicator show me when the price is approaching a resistance or support area. Each to their own.
"War is Peace; Freedom is Slavery; Ignorance is Strength."
  • #2,931
  • Edited 3:10pm Aug 16, 2008 2:51pm | Edited 3:10pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by CindyXXXX http://forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I don't remember Codemuncher once replying to repeated requests to post his "magic" indicators for us to check out...

So why show them them in the first place?

Quoting Grath
Peace. Purrrrlease don't start this up again. Enough already!
Well, this "stupid" Mexican found the indicators codemuncher was using without asking, so why can't you?

Maybe now you can understand my first post. codemuncher shows a really valuable tool for showing support and resistance and got blasted. loudoniii posts a spreadsheet and gets praise. That's like praising someone for inventing the abacus AFTER the personal computer was invented. Something just isn't right here. Very 1984ish. What gives?
"War is Peace; Freedom is Slavery; Ignorance is Strength."
  • #2,932
  • Edited 9:13pm Aug 16, 2008 4:02pm | Edited 9:13pm
To all,

There is a difference between an indicator and an identifier. Identifiers show things like areas of S&R or candle formations. These are not in the same category as lagging indicators are such as MACD and Moving Averages. I think to each his own but for the purposes of this thread we should respect the thread originator and try not to introduce indicators into the mix. I think if you have a tool that may help identify S&R post it in the MT4 indicators section and then place a link in one of your post on this thread inviting people to take a look at it and each person can decide if it is useful or not. Both the indicators and identifiers should not be discussed in this thread unless you have submitted your ideas to the thread originator.

Just my 2 cents.
  • #2,933
  • Aug 16, 2008 4:14pm Aug 16, 2008 4:14pm
Quoting ozziedave
To all,

There is a difference between an indicator and an identifier. Identifiers show things like areas of S&R or candle formations. These are not in the same category as lagging indicators are such as MACD and Moving Averages. I think to each his own but for the purposes of this thread we should respect the thread originator and try not to introduce indicators into the mix. I think if you have a tool that may help identify S&R post it in the MT4 indicators section and then place a link in one of your post on this thread inviting people to take a look at it and each person can decide if it is useful or not. Both the indicators and identifiers should not be discussed in this thread unless you have submitted your ideas thread originator.

Just my 2 cents.
I don't know you and you don't know me so I will assume you don't think I am stupid just because I am a Mexican. The support and resistance indicator that was posted doesn't lag. All it does is show how many times a price has been a candle's or bar's high or low just like what this thread talks about. So if the indicator says 1.5749 has been a low 2 times and a high 1 time, that seems like pretty good information to know. Do you think drawing a line on a chart and then looking at it is that precise? I will assume you are not stupid so the answer is of course not. You would have to move the cursor to each candle and then read the high and low for each candle. Let the computer do that because it is faster and more precise. Talk about a "NO BRAINER". Having the same information for the next 5 prices above and below helps to because it shows an area of resistance and support, just like this thread talks about.

See, I think there is something "darker" going on here just like in 1984. You are either a prole, outercircle or innercircle member. If you are a prole in here, you get blasted. If you don't speak the party line, you get blasted. Not very friendly towards some and counter productive. Remember, I am new here so I have no ax to grind or bone to pick. I am just sharing my observations. I'll probably make a few friends and a few enemies for speaking my mind, that's just the way it is.
"War is Peace; Freedom is Slavery; Ignorance is Strength."
  • #2,934
  • Aug 16, 2008 4:32pm Aug 16, 2008 4:32pm
Quoting garciaFX

See, I think there is something "darker" going on here just like in 1984. You are either a prole, outercircle or innercircle member. If you are a prole in here, you get blasted. If you don't speak the party line, you get blasted. Not very friendly towards some and counter productive. Remember, I am new here so I have no ax to grind or bone to pick. I am just sharing my observations. I'll probably make a few friends and a few enemies for speaking my mind, that's just the way it is.
Could you explain that paragraph - what is darker and 1984? Prole? Circles?
History is written by the victors.
  • #2,935
  • Aug 16, 2008 9:05pm Aug 16, 2008 9:05pm
Quoting garciaFX
I don't know you and you don't know me so I will assume you don't think I am stupid just because I am a Mexican. The support and resistance indicator that was posted doesn't lag. All it does is show how many times a price has been a candle's or bar's high or low just like what this thread talks about. So if the indicator says 1.5749 has been a low 2 times and a high 1 time, that seems like pretty good information to know. Do you think drawing a line on a chart and then looking at it is that precise? I will assume you are not stupid so the answer is of course not. You would have to move the cursor to each candle and then read the high and low for each candle. Let the computer do that because it is faster and more precise. Talk about a "NO BRAINER". Having the same information for the next 5 prices above and below helps to because it shows an area of resistance and support, just like this thread talks about.

See, I think there is something "darker" going on here just like in 1984. You are either a prole, outercircle or innercircle member. If you are a prole in here, you get blasted. If you don't speak the party line, you get blasted. Not very friendly towards some and counter productive. Remember, I am new here so I have no ax to grind or bone to pick. I am just sharing my observations. I'll probably make a few friends and a few enemies for speaking my mind, that's just the way it is.
Hi Garcia,

First off I don't think anyone is stupid. Secondly, I've been with this thread since the start even though I don't post very often.

I also didn't mention any specific indicator or identifier in my post. BRV started this thread with the intention of people learning how to trade using S & R but also looking at taking "no brainer" trades which implies taking trades that are clearly coming into strong support or resistance areas. I don't think he intended for us to be trading every 20 or 30 pip swing on a 15 min or 60 min chart.

My point was to take all indicators or identifiers and place them on a different thread and if you feel like sharing them and discussing them then you can do so elsewhere. You can place a link in your posts that invites people to look at your indicator. You can show your indicator in this thread just don't include it in your discussion of how you trade with it. To me it just adds alot of unnecessary posts to the thread and adds little or no value to the original methodology.

I think we all should all respect what BRV started here and we should stick as close as possible to his methodology. BRV is a seasoned trader and if there was some indicator or identifier that could make this methodology easier to trade he would have already identified it and shared it with us by now.
  • #2,936
  • Aug 17, 2008 12:35am Aug 17, 2008 12:35am
Yep I agree 100% now lets just get on with the thread and put all this debating to bed out of respect for BRV
Time hides Nothing
  • #2,937
  • Aug 17, 2008 1:26am Aug 17, 2008 1:26am
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Garcia,

First off I don't think anyone is stupid. Secondly, I've been with this thread since the start even though I don't post very often.

I also didn't mention any specific indicator or identifier in my post. BRV started this thread with the intention of people learning how to trade using S & R but also looking at taking "no brainer" trades which implies taking trades that are clearly coming into strong support or resistance areas. I don't think he intended for us to be trading every 20 or 30 pip swing on a 15 min or 60 min chart.

My point was to take all indicators or identifiers and place them on a different thread and if you feel like sharing them and discussing them then you can do so elsewhere. You can place a link in your posts that invites people to look at your indicator. You can show your indicator in this thread just don't include it in your discussion of how you trade with it. To me it just adds alot of unnecessary posts to the thread and adds little or no value to the original methodology.

I think we all should all respect what BRV started here and we should stick as close as possible to his methodology. BRV is a seasoned trader and if there was some indicator or identifier that could make this methodology easier to trade he would have already identified it and shared it with us by now.
For those of you who have not seen the movie, 1984 http://www.google.com/search?sourcei...the+movie+wiki

Garcia, please don't think for a minute that you are not welcome here. There is no "inner circle". I have no doubt that some people will become more familiar with each other over time and by posting more and through PM. That's just the normal process of social activity. But I for one welcome people who want to improve their trading by embracing the philosophy we teach here.

I don't have any reason to believe you are stupid, least of all because of your heritage. I think OzzieDave has a good suggestion here about posting indicators some where else and linking to them.

Personally I will answer anyone's question in this thread or by PM, even when they preface it with "this may be a stupid question".

IMHO one of the challenges as time goes on is we fall into a bit of a trap. S/R trading really is straight forward and simple to apply. Maybe we feel the need to add to it. I mean how can we post the same charts day after day with the same old boring horizontal lines.

Actually that was another requirement BRV had in the beginning was to post a chart when we make a trade call to support our reasoning. We have steered away from that lately. (Myself included)

But the whole point is to learn how to apply Horizontal S&R lines and to a lesser degree how to use fibs and diagonal trendlines. The real advantage to a thread this size is not that we keep adding things to the basics but that we post charts as we learn so others can learn too and knowing that no one person can watch 10-20 currencies all the time, there may be some one who notices a move in one currency that someone else completely missed. I for one don't watch the AUDJPY much so I have benefited from others who have made calls in that currency.

Now that's what I signed on for, to help some and be helped by some. But if we spend our time arguing over what the thread is really about when it has been clearly demonstrated and spelled out by BRV already, then all we will succeed in doing is to drive people away from posting and reading at all. We will destroy the ability of this thread to be a place for traders to learn, improve and help others do the same.

I for one would consider that a tragedy
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #2,938
  • Aug 17, 2008 3:36am Aug 17, 2008 3:36am
Hi all,

Our sample is yet too small but here is what we've got so far
http://sites.google.com/site/nobrainertrades/trades
  • #2,939
  • Edited 7:59am Aug 17, 2008 7:37am | Edited 7:59am
I apologise if this is out of line but for newbies like myself threads like this are like gold mines and we spend countless hours/days/weeks reading it and re-reading it and trying to put it into practice to make sense of it all, personally i think this is no forum for political views or cultural diferences and if people have insecurities about there IQ or Nationality they should leave it at the door.

Thank you to all those who stick to the topic and offer their words of wisdom, i hope one day i can give back as you have done.
  • #2,940
  • Aug 17, 2008 8:15am Aug 17, 2008 8:15am
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Garcia,

First off I don't think anyone is stupid. Secondly, I've been with this thread since the start even though I don't post very often.

I also didn't mention any specific indicator or identifier in my post. BRV started this thread with the intention of people learning how to trade using S & R but also looking at taking "no brainer" trades which implies taking trades that are clearly coming into strong support or resistance areas. I don't think he intended for us to be trading every 20 or 30 pip swing on a 15 min or 60 min chart.

My point was to take all indicators or identifiers and place them on a different thread and if you feel like sharing them and discussing them then you can do so elsewhere. You can place a link in your posts that invites people to look at your indicator. You can show your indicator in this thread just don't include it in your discussion of how you trade with it. To me it just adds alot of unnecessary posts to the thread and adds little or no value to the original methodology.

I think we all should all respect what BRV started here and we should stick as close as possible to his methodology. BRV is a seasoned trader and if there was some indicator or identifier that could make this methodology easier to trade he would have already identified it and shared it with us by now.
You make this sound like a cult. The words of BRV as sacred. No one else has anything of value to add. If it doesn't come from the master ignore it because he is the only one who has the vision to know what is good for us. How stupid do you think this Mexican is? I mean no disrepect to BRV but please tone down the idol worship. A spreadsheet is ok but an indicator showing the same or better information in real time is to be knocked down? Perhaps pearls have been cast upon swine.
"War is Peace; Freedom is Slavery; Ignorance is Strength."
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