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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #12,701
  • Aug 15, 2008 3:15pm Aug 15, 2008 3:15pm
all im asking for fib is constructive negative posts instead of the normal "forum speak". that demand is why this thread is what it is. im just very sensitive to new comers to this thread showing the old money tec way of stating things. it spirals into disruption. post all the negative comments you wish but do it in a way that shows intent for learning and not disruption. your a smart guy and you know exactly what im talking about. in no way do i wish you to leave. im just looking after something that is very special to me. if you had put in thousands of hours of effort on something similar you would feel the same way. i know you would.

stick around and help man.

i mean that,

jim

Quoting fibbinarchi
James16

I hear your message to me and will state for the record 'I'm not the bad guy', and I don't appreciate you trying to paint me this way. I will not ask anything more and will leave, you have made your point very clearly. I'm one of the lucky ones (well not lucky, a hard worker) and I have my own methods, but I'm never to big to keep an open mind to learn something new, oh well.
  • #12,702
  • Aug 15, 2008 3:19pm Aug 15, 2008 3:19pm
chart
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  • #12,703
  • Aug 15, 2008 3:22pm Aug 15, 2008 3:22pm
Quoting fxgrinder
my friend and i took this pin. despite this being a great pin (contrary to the eurusd pin being discussed --- that is, long nose, close in the bottom 10-25% of the bar) ... i was concerned about the ranging area back in nov07, dec07 and felt like it "might" stall out through this area ... (my question was whether the latest move right through it would allow for us to look past that congestion) ... however, some of the other reasons i decided to take it was that it was off monthly R3, upper BB, and a good area of resistance (3 prior times at this level it dropped) ...

p.s. i am curious about your entry ... i entered at the break of the pin ... did you enter at the retrace? :-)
Fxgrinder, I am glad to find out that I am not the only one trading the EURAUD pin right now. I actually entered on the retrace instead of the break of the pin. If I do this the size of the contract is usually not as large and I can always add positions when it does breaks. If enter on the retrace I use a moving average method for exit sometimes, but I thought this pin looked very nice considering the benefits you stated.
  • #12,704
  • Aug 15, 2008 3:35pm Aug 15, 2008 3:35pm
Quoting Crown
Fxgrinder, I am glad to find out that I am not the only one trading the EURAUD pin right now. I actually entered on the retrace instead of the break of the pin. If I do this the size of the contract is usually not as large and I can always add positions when it does breaks. If enter on the retrace I use a moving average method for exit sometimes, but I thought this pin looked very nice considering the benefits you stated.
my friend and i debated our entry here some and opted to trade the break. do you mind sharing whether you waited for price to test the bottom of the pin a bit and then enter an order on the retrace ... or did you set an order a predetermined potential retrace level (50%, 62%) ... or did you watch to enter in the lower TF's? i didn't quite understand this too much as a i read through the thread (just tried to grapple with the basics at first), but now i am more interested so will probably go back and re-read through the thread (ugg, for a 3rd time) ...

p.s. i think i am going to hang on to this one due to that weekly pin.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #12,705
  • Aug 15, 2008 3:41pm Aug 15, 2008 3:41pm
Quoting fxgrinder
my friend and i debated our entry here some and opted to trade the break. do you mind sharing whether you waited for price to test the bottom of the pin a bit and then enter an order on the retrace ... or did you set an order a predetermined potential retrace level (50%, 62%) ... or did you watch to enter in the lower TF's? i didn't quite understand this too much as a i read through the thread (just tried to grapple with the basics at first), but now i am more interested so will probably go back and re-read through the thread (ugg, for a 3rd time) ...

p.s. i think i am going to hang on to this one due to that weekly pin.
I entered yesterday with a sell stop at 1.720.
  • #12,706
  • Aug 15, 2008 3:54pm Aug 15, 2008 3:54pm
Quoting HipsterPipster
I entered yesterday with a sell stop at 1.720.
if price breaks the weekly pin at 6817 ... it seems like 6600 is the next area of some minor support and then some more at 6500 ...
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"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #12,707
  • Aug 15, 2008 4:06pm Aug 15, 2008 4:06pm
JIM,

I was wondering what are your thoughts about GBP/USD daily?
I got mixed feelings about this one.
We got the pin bar ,and 1.8508 is previous support from weekly chart.Also after this drop we may be due for some retracements.
But there still siems to be a strong downtrend wich is also corelated with EUR. And there no signs of reversal on weekly.
All the best Chris .
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  • #12,708
  • Edited 10:47pm Aug 15, 2008 4:21pm | Edited 10:47pm
Quoting speedarad
JIM,

I was wondering what are your thoughts about GBP/USD daily?
I got mixed feelings about this one.
We got the pin bar ,and 1.8508 is previous support from weekly chart.Also after this drop we may be due for some retracements.
But there still siems to be a strong downtrend wich is also corelated with EUR. And there no signs of reversal on weekly.
All the best Chris .
My 2 pips.

I believe it has a high potential. Price kissed a very strong PPZ around the 1.8500ish level. Definitely on the watch list.

Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #12,709
  • Aug 15, 2008 4:41pm Aug 15, 2008 4:41pm
Quoting jarroo
My 2 pips.

I believe it has a high potential. Price kissed a very strong PPZ around the 1.8500ish level. Definetly on the watch list.

Jim
It's definitely on my watch list. I noticed how priced just bounced off of 185.10 a key price pivot zone on my interbank feed. Got my eyes on the kiwi too. Nice PB on the weekly chart off of another ppz. Time to go load the rifle and will let PA give me the signal to pull the trigger . . . thanks again James.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #12,710
  • Aug 15, 2008 4:42pm Aug 15, 2008 4:42pm
Quoting jarroo
My 2 pips.

I believe it has a high potential. Price kissed a very strong PPZ around the 1.8500ish level. Definetly on the watch list.

Jim
Thank you sir,

I appreciate your response.

Chris
  • #12,711
  • Aug 15, 2008 4:44pm Aug 15, 2008 4:44pm
Quoting fxgrinder
if price breaks the weekly pin at 6817 ... it seems like 6600 is the next area of some minor support and then some more at 6500 ...
Yes, the .6500-.6600 is my first TP area, but I will also be keeping an eye on 1.6850. Also, I need to correct my post, I entered with a sell limit yesterday in the afternoon, EST. I liked that price broke 1.6990 which gave me more confidence in the trade. Currently at BE.
  • #12,712
  • Edited 8:47pm Aug 15, 2008 7:45pm | Edited 8:47pm
Quoting SeekingLight
My opinion. This comes from my approach to trading, others have a COMPLETELY different attitude and approach towards this altogether, and that's fine, too.
Well said Seeking. I couldn't agree more on both parts {fundies and failed PB's}. Your input is, as always, concise, straight to the point and most appreciated.

Quoting Betard
These pins failed because of recent dollar strength. There was a good pin on usd/jpy with trend that was much better than these others. If a pair has dropped 10% or more in just a couple weeks (like AUS, EUR, etc.) you should probably look for more than just a single reversal bar before entering. Why's everyone trying to pick the bottom now? Sorry if this sounds harsh I just wonder why people got optimistic after 1 day of a reversal after such a fall?
I'm sorry, but with that analogy, you would not have taken the PB's on the Aussie {after 7-8 years of a strong bull trend} that signalled the massive reversal {quite possibly only a retracement} we've just witnessed. Taking these trades would have yielded near 1000 pips. This business requires us to just "bite the bullet" at times.

If it looks like a PB, smells like a PB, trade it like a PB!

I still stand by the MM aspect, if you don't risk your whole account and the set-up fails, you live to fight another day. And you can bet your sweet little banana that another successful set-up is only just around the corner. And you can also bet that not every single PB is going to win!! No matter how strong the PPZ. This is why MM exists in the first place.

Jim states that if you lose 30% on one trade, you must go back to demo trading. I would be more of a tight ass and say anything over 5% is only preparing a noose for yourself.

I get the feeling that many want to bet the house on each trade when their capital does not allow it, just to make that extra buck or get the break they're ever so hungry for. So an inevitable loss is going to really hurt {thus the reason for trying to eliminate them}.

It has been said so many times on this forum, slow and steady wins the race. Even if you're only gaining a cent per pip.
  • #12,713
  • Aug 15, 2008 7:54pm Aug 15, 2008 7:54pm
Quoting Rainmaker
2. Using volume as an add-on in FX trading can be deceiving as FX is not a centralized marketplace like stocks or futures. You only get the volume information from your broker and who can tell if this isnīt just the tip of the iceberg?
You are spot on, the volume you see is that of your broker, not the entire fx market.

If you use a broker who has hundreds of thousands of clients, it would be useful at times {similar to the way it is useful in the stocks/futures market}.
  • #12,714
  • Aug 15, 2008 8:11pm Aug 15, 2008 8:11pm
Quoting melmini
This makes a lot of sense and I hadn't thought that far into the placement of the PB. It makes sense that you want the nose of the PB to just touch the PPZ and then get rejected and send price back up to form the PB. If the nose goes too far into the PPZ then it probably will not be strong enough s/r to make the reversal. Your point really hit home for me. Thanks!
No problems melmini, I'm glad it made sense to you

I would have to agree with Jim on this one too, a long nose is nothing to be concerned about {the longer the better actually}. It is really only the position of the close on a valid PB that is important. If it closes below/above support/resistance, it constitutes a breakout and should be confirmed by another close above support or below resistance to be on the safer side.

Like I said, this is not one of Jim's rules, I do like to take this into account myself.
  • #12,715
  • Aug 15, 2008 9:48pm Aug 15, 2008 9:48pm
Quoting james16
chart
Hi, James,

Thanks for your great chart and explaination. Now I follow your thread day by day.

Hope you don't mind asking a question, The problem here is how to define PPZ, The definition I learned from Jarooo is the area right below the ppz box you draw on your chart. draw a box around bars which have same high/low. If the definition of PPZ is arbitray, it will cause confusion.
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  • #12,716
  • Aug 15, 2008 9:54pm Aug 15, 2008 9:54pm
Quoting speedarad
JIM,

I was wondering what are your thoughts about GBP/USD daily?
I got mixed feelings about this one.
We got the pin bar ,and 1.8508 is previous support from weekly chart.Also after this drop we may be due for some retracements.
But there still siems to be a strong downtrend wich is also corelated with EUR. And there no signs of reversal on weekly.
All the best Chris .
I agree with jaroo that it has potential.

I would also take into consideration the H&S pattern on the weekly {watch what the price does around the neckline if it gets back up there}.
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  • #12,717
  • Aug 15, 2008 10:06pm Aug 15, 2008 10:06pm
Quoting lose_again
Hi, James,

Thanks for your great chart and explaination. Now I follow your thread day by day.

Hope you don't mind asking a question, The problem here is how to define PPZ, The definition I learned from Jarooo is the area right below the ppz box you draw on your chart. draw a box around bars which have same high/low. If the definition of PPZ is arbitray, it will cause confusion.
There is strong resistance turned support, which is much clearer on the weekly chart.

You can see that it acted as resistance back in early 2008 and then again in mid 2008. Price has broken through it, so it should now act as support.

I also would be watchful of the evening star/doji star.
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  • #12,718
  • Aug 15, 2008 11:52pm Aug 15, 2008 11:52pm
I'm sure you've heard the saying "there's more than one way to skin a cat", I also think there's more than one way to skin a playable PB too.

Someone may find this useful, so I'll post how I trade a PB that is of interest.

1) The stock standard way Jim suggests to play. Enter just above/below with SL below/above the nose (generally with a pending order).

2) The retracement, if applicable. I'll fib the PB and try to get in at a better price with a smaller SL. I usually watch lower time frames to see how the price is reacting at each fib level with lower lows/higher highs and other PA patterns (double high/low, outside bars, PB's, DIBS - see below). I don't really care if the price goes past the 61.8% fib. Many successful PB's I have traded have moved beyond this level and were still a roaring success. Others may have a different view on this, but it's my money and I'm in charge. One thing I do practice is never adding to a negative pips position. I'll only add to a green pips position if I feel confident enough the price is going to continue.

3) The DIBS approach on either 1H or 4H with bias towards the break of the PB. SL can be set just past the low/high of the IB, I usually allow more or set it below/above the nose of the pin.

I only ever trade a PB on they daily chart and above. Sometimes I'll scalp lower, but I love my fishing and would much rather be doing this

I guess you could use any trading system to play a PB with bias towards the break of the bar.
  • #12,719
  • Aug 15, 2008 11:58pm Aug 15, 2008 11:58pm
this is exactly what im always hoping people will do with this material. this is of course after putting your ideas thru a testing period. these bar methods used with s/r can be the key to making any trading style, idea or system an outstanding success when otherwise it would not be. no one ever talks about the old vegas system but i can tell you that there are quite a few people that supercharged that system with this material for nailing early entries and never looked back.

jim

Quoting NuckingFuts
I'm sure you've heard the saying "there's more than one way to skin a cat", I also think there's more than one way to skin a playable PB too.

Someone may find this useful, so I'll post how I trade a PB that is of interest.

1) The stock standard way Jim suggests to play. Enter just above/below with SL below/above the nose (generally with a pending order).

2) The retracement, if applicable. I'll fib the PB and try to get in at a better price with a smaller SL. I usually watch lower time frames to see how the price is reacting at each fib level with lower lows/higher highs and other PA patterns (double high/low, outside bars, PB's, DIBS - see below). I don't really care if the price goes past the 61.8% fib. Many successful PB's I have traded have moved beyond this level and were still a roaring success. Others may have a different view on this, but it's my money and I'm in charge. One thing I do practice is never adding to a negative pips position. I'll only add to a green pips position if I feel confident enough the price is going to continue.

3) The DIBS approach on either 1H or 4H with bias towards the break of the PB. SL can be set just past the low/high of the IB, I usually allow more or set it below/above the nose of the pin.

I only ever trade a PB on they daily chart and above. Sometimes I'll scalp lower, but I love my fishing and would much rather be doing this

I guess you could use any trading system to play a PB with bias towards the break of the bar.
  • #12,720
  • Aug 16, 2008 12:01am Aug 16, 2008 12:01am
Quoting james16
chart

Thanks James for the chart. I've been starting to trade your methods for the last month or so and have been profitable, but not as profitable as some seniors here like Ghous (some hundreds of pips literally recently). I'm working hard to get there though

I have questions regarding your PPZ. All this time, I'm using confluence of weekly and monthly pivots to initiate a trade. I miss that usd/jpy PB because the PB miss another pivot. I didn't have the confidence to initiate a trade based on former resistance turned to support theory. Regarding this matter, can former resistance be used as support too in shorter time frame like 4H? or is this kind of PPZ only can be used in Daily to greater effect?

Regards,
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