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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #12,661
  • Aug 15, 2008 7:57am Aug 15, 2008 7:57am
Quoting Forex007
Why does anyone have to prove it?.. FX is for "consenting adults" But talking about proving, J16 bunch is not selling anything; dozens of system/signal/indicator sellers - who can PROVE anything to you - are after your money.

The proof of the cake is in eating it
If there's any cake as good as James16, it's Black Forest Gateau
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #12,662
  • Aug 15, 2008 8:00am Aug 15, 2008 8:00am
Quoting Forex007
As for PBs still valid, my thoughts are (without bending the rules to much): (a) when the bar after PB drops that much, that "violates" PB itself - after all, it should have protrude (am I right here?) beyond the bars on its BOTH sides (or am I wrong?), which leads us to
A PB is not violated until the nose is broken.

You should trade the pins as taught by James - enter at break and stop at opposite end and risking a set % of your account for each trade. The only thing left to discretion then would be finding a good pin in a good location. It is a proven way to trade.

If your thoughts stem from trying to save $$ then you should apply proper MM.

Quote
(b) waiting for a PB to fail completely (i.e. for the price to drop to the end of the nose) is too much of a risk - when the price goes below 50% fib of PB, that rings an alarm bell for me.
It isn't too much of a risk if you are applying good MM - you would only lose x% of your account that you were willing to when you entered the trade. If you are closing positions early to save $$ before PA actually invalidates the position then you are risking too much.

Quote
The following comment is off the topic, but if PB is a strong PA, there should be a "safer" entry point. E.g. with inside bars, the resulting movement could be as strong as with PB, but with IBs we are risking MUCH MUCH less than with PBs.
Again, if you are applying good MM, it shouldn't matter as you would be risking a set % of your account. IBs will allow a larger position size compared to the pin. IMO IBs are the more risky trade.
  • #12,663
  • Aug 15, 2008 8:02am Aug 15, 2008 8:02am
Quoting SimonK
I'm going to spend today going over the charts and prove to myself that statistically, this method does work.
I've spent plenty of time doing that. Well worth it Simon.

I don't think I remember such a long discussion about one days pin action. My head's spinning. lol
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #12,664
  • Aug 15, 2008 8:08am Aug 15, 2008 8:08am
Quoting hakga
A PB is not violated until the nose is broken.

You should trade the pins as taught by James - enter at break and stop at opposite end and risking a set % of your account for each trade. The only thing left to discretion then would be finding a good pin in a good location. It is a proven way to trade.

If your thoughts stem from trying to save $$ then you should apply proper MM.

It isn't too much of a risk if you are applying good MM - you would only lose x% of your account that you were willing to when you entered the trade. If you are closing positions early to save $$ before PA actually invalidates the position then you are risking too much.

Again, if you are applying good MM, it shouldn't matter as you would be risking a set % of your account. IBs will allow a larger position size compared to the pin. IMO IBs are the more risky trade.
Hakga: well put. Great post!

-John
  • #12,665
  • Aug 15, 2008 8:11am Aug 15, 2008 8:11am
I took the trade on the Nzd/Jpy pinbar as it touched the 2007 lows which on the weekly/monthly chart has been a strong area of support. There is a strong PPZ, imvho, around the 79.90/80.00 area which is also a fib level from the big drop from 97.75 on the monthly chart. I have no chart, working on a mac/parallels platform, but if anyone would care to comment I would appreciate it.

Cheers

DT
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #12,666
  • Aug 15, 2008 8:13am Aug 15, 2008 8:13am
Quoting Forex007
Hi guys,

Just started playing around (well, working hard ) with ForexTester
Got it! I'd recommend it to everyone here, hands down. Practice your PA strategies. Learn to manage your trades. Get confident that it works.

Quote
P.S. I still cannot figure out how to close part of the position, so have to resort to opening several identical ones and closing some when needed.
You can't yet. I do the same as you.

Next version will add the ability to close partial positions (apparently). I can't wait. If there were any reason to hold off buying, it would be that. The author knows it's important to add anyway.
.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #12,667
  • Aug 15, 2008 8:26am Aug 15, 2008 8:26am
Quoting DutchTrader
I took the trade on the Nzd/Jpy pinbar as it touched the 2007 lows which on the weekly/monthly chart has been a strong area of support. There is a strong PPZ, imvho, around the 79.90/80.00 area which is also a fib level from the big drop from 97.75 on the monthly chart. I have no chart, working on a mac/parallels platform, but if anyone would care to comment I would appreciate it.

Cheers

DT
Nice trade dutch, pin on monthly/weekly/daily, all I'd say is that its a long term position with a nice swap, and if previous ppz's stay valid it might reach early 80's as first ppz and range between these levels, ideally though you want it to to push on through to the 90's, time will tell, and patience is your success.
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #12,668
  • Aug 15, 2008 8:31am Aug 15, 2008 8:31am
Quoting hakga
A PB is not violated until the nose is broken.

You should trade the pins as taught by James - enter at break and stop at opposite end and risking a set % of your account for each trade. The only thing left to discretion then would be finding a good pin in a good location. It is a proven way to trade.

If your thoughts stem from trying to save $$ then you should apply proper MM.

It isn't too much of a risk if you are applying good MM - you would only lose x% of your account that you were willing to when you entered the trade. If you are closing positions early to save $$ before PA actually invalidates the position then you are risking too much.

Again, if you are applying good MM, it shouldn't matter as you would be risking a set % of your account. IBs will allow a larger position size compared to the pin. IMO IBs are the more risky trade.
Thanks a lot, Hakga.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #12,669
  • Aug 15, 2008 8:50am Aug 15, 2008 8:50am
Quoting toyboy tramp
Nice trade dutch, pin on monthly/weekly/daily, all I'd say is that its a long term position with a nice swap, and if previous ppz's stay valid it might reach early 80's as first ppz and range between these levels, ideally though you want it to to push on through to the 90's, time will tell, and patience is your success.
Yep, I'm planning on holding on to the early 80s' barring any unforeseen circumstances. Thanks for the words bro
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #12,670
  • Aug 15, 2008 8:58am Aug 15, 2008 8:58am
Quoting fibbinarchi
James16

Why the lame excuse of the failure pin on the Euro due to different data on Brokers? Fact is, it was a Textbook pin that failed. People would have more respect for you if you just just admit they fail as well as pay out. I have noticed more failures than winners lately, maybe I'm looking at the wrong broker feed, (I have 4 running)?

So I take it from your comment you didn't trade it then? You never said. How about some 'pre-move' charts instead of 'post move' ones?
Mate, your criticism would ride better with everyone taking part in this thread if it looked like you even bothered to understand the techniques here. Or even bothered to read the posts leading up to Jim's post.
.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #12,671
  • Aug 15, 2008 9:58am Aug 15, 2008 9:58am
Quoting fibbinarchi
Just because I haven't been hanging and posting on this thread doesn't mean I haven't been applying the logic for some time.

I have been trading the markets successfully for seven years.

It was a perfect pin on at least 2 feeds, triggered by 15 pips
I don't know you, or were I addressing you.

I would appreciate you keeping the tone at a respectful non aggressive level please.

In my experience so far testing this method, it seems that these pinbars work better in weaker non trending markets, but the failure % will increase as the markets begin to trend again.

To see and hear the thoughts of a more experienced trader on this method before the trades in my opinion is priceless, instead of post facts.

Post facts are cherry picked (you are shown the winners).

I think it would beneficial to all to have what i have asked for. I really don't understand the need for the attack from anyone. Frustration perhaps?
There are diff. ways of putting things. One can ask a question ("Could you explain to me, please, why..."), or one can point a finger.

I don't know James16 personally, but I know enough people who have great respect for him because he changed (for better) their (trading) lives.

When you address your post to someone, anybody on this thread is free to chip in. If you were posting more, you'd have known that.

I don't think James16 is hiding smth by not showing failed PBs. I do agree that it could be helpful to learn lessons from failed trades (as would a pre-trade analysis you suggested), but James16 does it in his way - it's his thread after all (and he is not forcing anyone to read it). However, the way you put it sounded (to me) that you are asking him to prove smth. Why should he?..

Failed PBs are failed PBs. James16 didn't invent PBs, nor is he responsible for their success or failure We are all free to do whatever we want with the info found on this thread.

Have a great weekend.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #12,672
  • Aug 15, 2008 10:02am Aug 15, 2008 10:02am
Quoting Forex007
When shall we all drop by?
I'll let you know, poker Thursdays in the back room, trading screens too
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #12,673
  • Aug 15, 2008 10:19am Aug 15, 2008 10:19am
These pins failed because of recent dollar strength. There was a good pin on usd/jpy with trend that was much better than these others. If a pair has dropped 10% or more in just a couple weeks (like AUS, EUR, etc.) you should probably look for more than just a single reversal bar before entering. Why's everyone trying to pick the bottom now? Sorry if this sounds harsh I just wonder why people got optimistic after 1 day of a reversal after such a fall?
  • #12,674
  • Aug 15, 2008 11:58am Aug 15, 2008 11:58am
Quoting james16
CHART
Hi Jim,

I am with IBFX and have an identical feed to your EURUSD chart. It definitely wasn't a pin that day but I ended up playing off of the closing of that bar for 1)the sake that it could have been a pin and I wanted a nice entering position on it and 2)that I used a moving average with two deviations to exit the position for a 60 pip profit scalp before it turned. Even if traders entered blindly off of that closing bar, with conservative MM they wouldn't have endured a significant loss. Bottom line, It wasn't a pin on our IBFX feeds and therefore shouldn't have been traded.

On another note, I am still favoring this EURAUD trade, I am not very familiar with this pair but I am currently up 180 pips and there is a potential weekly pin. Did anyone trade off of the daily pin? Any opinions?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud daily pin.gif Size: 10 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud weekly pin.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #12,675
  • Aug 15, 2008 12:06pm Aug 15, 2008 12:06pm
Hello,everyone!

First I would like to express my gratitude for all the valuble lessons Jim(and many others) post here in this thread.By all means ,this is very good stuff!
In my opinion when it comes to trade "Pins" it's a litlle gambling involved here ,because you can't know for sure if the trend is going to reverse or not.
There for we try to gadge an edge( confirmation if you wish) by establishing levels of R/S and Fibo as well.
I also use "Volume" in this type of set ups.
If you look at the chatrts below I post to different situations when a pin occur.In one case we see a reversal,in the other is a fail.
When I see a pin I also like to take a look at the volume.
If I see a spike in the volume, wich would be way above the average,than I know I have a better chance to see a true reversal.
The logic behind this is based on "supply and demand"
If we have an increased activity on a pin bar that tells us there is more pressure for an reversal than usual.
Of course all the other rules teached by Jim about pin bars still apply!

I hope this is usefull for many of you looking at the pin bars(like me)

Chris
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzd-jpy.gif Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd-chf.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #12,676
  • Aug 15, 2008 12:24pm Aug 15, 2008 12:24pm
Quoting giraia_br
weekly chart

first test of a H&S, 38,2 FIB and almost at the 150 EMA. Maybe will form a PB?
  • #12,677
  • Aug 15, 2008 12:35pm Aug 15, 2008 12:35pm
I'm gonna watch this level carefully [red rectangle]. Very well defined diagonal trendline ,first resistance then support. Could be good for some pips. The last pin on e/u in my opinion was below the highs from the last year range and it wasn't the cherry of pinbars (more like doji) especially in strong momentum like that.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.GIF Size: 12 KB
  • #12,678
  • Aug 15, 2008 12:38pm Aug 15, 2008 12:38pm
Quoting speedarad
Hello,everyone!

First I would like to express my gratitude for all the valuble lessons Jim(and many others) post here in this thread.By all means ,this is very good stuff!
In my opinion when it comes to trade "Pins" it's a litlle gambling involved here ,because you can't know for sure if the trend is going to reverse or not.
There for we try to gadge an edge( confirmation if you wish) by establishing levels of R/S and Fibo as well.
I also use "Volume" in this type of set ups.
If you look at the chatrts below I post to different situations when a pin occur.In one case we see a reversal,in the other is a fail.
When I see a pin I also like to take a look at the volume.
If I see a spike in the volume, wich would be way above the average,than I know I have a better chance to see a true reversal.
The logic behind this is based on "supply and demand"
If we have an increased activity on a pin bar that tells us there is more pressure for an reversal than usual.
Of course all the other rules teached by Jim about pin bars still apply!

I hope this is usefull for many of you looking at the pin bars(like me)

Chris
I like this idea Chris, a PB that has moved with a lot volatility is a good way to dteremine it's strehgth, (i''l leave the rest for the master to coment on) i'll backtest this idea, how long have you been using vloumed with Jim's stuff?
I believe . . .
  • #12,679
  • Aug 15, 2008 12:38pm Aug 15, 2008 12:38pm
Quoting fxprocessor
Hey there Seeking
How do you prove a discretionary trading system works?
cheers
fxp
Hey FXP
I'll interpret this as a "how do I know when something works(for me)" question.
If it's meant in a general manner from the outside: you see if you can understand the logic presented, try and apply it yourself, compare with the original idea and see if it fits or not. This is also where you'll figure out whether you're made for it or not.

In a concrete, "inside" manner of trading it yourself: you have a ruleset, you lay out trading plans, have a game plan i.e. trade management and exit criteria. If you don't have a stringent before-during-after, you WILL end up just afloat in a big ocean of randomness.
You will know this works or rather establish this works in the very period everyone is still banging on about...the demo phase. After laying your groundwork and testing it in a live environment consistently and repeatedly, you figure out whether you know what you're doing or not and, most importantly, imho, you find out WHY it works.

I know why what I do has a good chance of "working" and that's all the proof in the world I need.
Obviously there's also proof in returned(positive) %, but that's not the soothing bit. The soothing bit is having understood something about the market and trading.

I know that some or even a lot of people will just not accept this and dismiss this type of "talk" as "blabber".
IMHO I couldn't write anything more true(the knowing / reasons / understanding bit) about what I've found out for myself.
I can't speak for others.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #12,680
  • Aug 15, 2008 12:43pm Aug 15, 2008 12:43pm
Quoting speedarad
If you look at the chatrts below I post to different situations when a pin occur.In one case we see a reversal,in the other is a fail.

When I see a pin I also like to take a look at the volume.

Of course all the other rules teached by Jim about pin bars still apply!
Hey Chris,
thanks for your thoughts and examples. This is not intended to be "finger-pointing", I just wanted to throw my thoughts in:

1. The "failed" pin bar in your first chart example wasnīt broken to the upside by the next bar, so it never triggered and therefore never was a confirmed pin bar. (But I do agree there are examples where pins actually get triggered and then reverse on you ... )

2. Using volume as an add-on in FX trading can be deceiving as FX is not a centralized marketplace like stocks or futures. You only get the volume information from your broker and who can tell if this isnīt just the tip of the iceberg?

Regards
RM
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