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Wall Street close watch

  • #701
  • Jul 28, 2008 6:11pm Jul 28, 2008 6:11pm
Merril hit the wires with another $5.7 billion writedown...

They should do like Zimbabwe: Just issue the WD$1 bill (Writedown dollar).

Last quote: WD$/USD = 100,000,000,000
  • #702
  • Edited 2:07am Jul 29, 2008 1:55am | Edited 2:07am
Quoting SeekingLight
Hey Sun. Yea, appears we finally got the divergence short squeeze I kept going on about.

6500 area is my flip zone. Above 6620 and it's no longer a sensible move to me.
Basically almost all indices are at levels plus minus a few handful from which I would expect some selling to come.

Just as the shorts were overdone, so can the longs be, especially if they move these oversized steps. IMHO.
What do I know.
I just make lucky guesses, really.

As Sun said:
Quoting SunTrader
Dax got the pop up, almost to 6600, into retrace mode now.

I believe down to 6200 area but then higher.
We got to 6576 (selling 6500 with a 6630 stop woulda worked, ey) are back down to 6330 again. I agree with the 6200 area being support.

I am also skeptical about how low we'll go in the current move, but at this point I'd just protect what I have and just let it do what it does. Too much "tightness/closeness" to really tell much for me.

But I wanted to ask about my other idea again. Since Merlin mentioned his picks and bargain buys, I'm curious what he and others think about the diminished-or-not efficiency of Index ETFs / trackers (here they just mirror the DAX / DJI, shrunk by around 100:1, i.e. 6500 DAX costs 65 EUR.
VS: Market-Maker futures with leverage on other brokers. Or single shares.
Or whatever.

Just curious whether anyone has some good thoughts on efficiency in terms of both cost and risk/reward and "type". Especially since holding period might be a while, the factor of share dividends vs thes. or even costing ETFs et al might come in?

I'm really not experienced in the stock market area, so if some people who are would wanna share, that'd be cool. Would be a shame to get a bubble-bust-price market and not do anything at all about it when we do go into blood-and-tears mode at some point.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #703
  • Jul 29, 2008 2:38pm Jul 29, 2008 2:38pm
Quoting cesarnc
Make it -239, thank you very much
Make it +235 today
  • #704
  • Jul 31, 2008 3:20pm Jul 31, 2008 3:20pm
I don't know if anyone follows Barry's blog,
(the one with stuff like:
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/commen...rting-tha.html
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/commen...eos-i-sai.html
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/commen...ts-overst.html
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/commen...k-for-usa.html

if that's spamming or no-no, just let me know and I'll edit it back out or just wipe it from the post)

but I was wondering whether I am the only one thinking we've left behind any kind of reality checks and headed straight on out to "make it up as you go along" wonderland...

Because, er, if I understand this correctly:

There is no longer a free market.
You're only allowed to buy(yes I am aware of the naked vs normal shorting distinction, but it appears not everyone is and the fact we needed to emphasize this via a decree is just...uhm), because we kind of screwed up the pension system by pretending markets are unidirectional and arranging basically a good bit of the pension bet on everlasting prosperity and bull markets.


There is no longer accountability.
If you screw up so bad, that if you let anyone on to it, they'd panic and run away screaming, you can just choose not show it to them.


Credibility is out. There is no more necessity for kinda-sorta well worded truthful reporting or even trying to avoid blatant lying.
You can say you're doing fine and not in the need of any money Friday and raise it Monday. No problemo. If anyone asks, you're fine, then you go and announce more losses and ask for more money or the odd bailout or two.
Who needs to be credible, right?


I could go on, but it kind of just gets sick and sad after a while..

Am I the only one wondering what is going with this world?

Or have I just been brainwashed by perma-bear blogologist propaganda and am suffering from perception disorder and other delusions..
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #705
  • Jul 31, 2008 7:28pm Jul 31, 2008 7:28pm
What up - SL

Well there is the fact that Ford and Chrysler and GM debt was downgraded deeper into Junk status - 6 levels below investment grade. So I don't think everyone is getting away with it.

Also many bank stocks are down 60-70-80%.

Many handouts given, short-sale restrictions but also a lot of suffering in industries affected.

Doesn't seem like the bloggers ever give a balanced point of view. Thats my view. Maybe I am 'unbalanced' too.

Sun
  • #706
  • Aug 1, 2008 6:16am Aug 1, 2008 6:16am
Yea, there is definitely a lot of suffering going to come from this.

It just seems scary that a whole sector has gone "rogue" / Enron...what I posted before, and today I read:

Quote
Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Four days before Merrill Lynch & Co. stopped supporting the auction-rate securities market and left thousands of individual investors stuck with securities they couldn't sell, the firm's analysts recommended clients buy.

[..]
Merrill denied that its analysts acted improperly in recommending auction-rate securities, also known as ARS.
The analysts mentioned in Galvin's complaint ``are men of integrity and intellectual honesty.
Niiiiiice.

I agree on the biased views, but if one is honest, doesn't one go to these folks to GET a biased perspective in the first place?

All we humans ever do is select the perceptions that affirm our own beliefs and neglect those that don't..
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #707
  • Aug 1, 2008 10:03am Aug 1, 2008 10:03am
But my only gripe is when any industry like say Wall Street runs amuck who do we have to turn to.......Congress. Such a fine group of upstanding individuals.

My Congressman - Robert Wexler (Dem - So he ain't losing this election day) decided to rent a house in his district after representing it for over 10 years. Nice. He waited until his current Republican opponent discovered and outed him on it. That is minor but does represent how lousy politicans feel they don't have to do what used to be considered the right thing to do.

I only visited blogs that others provide links to. I got too many of my own opinions already.
  • #708
  • Edited 2:23am Aug 5, 2008 2:11am | Edited 2:23am
We have begun moving USDJPY weaker/lower as the USD rallies, we have begun losing stock power despite Oil going down. The carry has begun diving despite lacking new lows in equities. Also despite "Missile Stories", Oil isn't even yawning anymore. Something has changed.

IMHO we've just moved into a new phase and if things continue they could very well be heading into "carry monster madness lower" phase II.

All the ingredients seem to be around and we've got a great lineup of announcements this week to help speed things along
Would be an odd seasonality, no? Kicking off the unwinding stuff around August-October I mean.

Let's see how this all goes down(geddit geddit) or not.

Btw - I would like to point back towards the whole "EJ rising as EURUSD rises" ordeal again(those two charts I posted a way back).
We had periods of the crosses diving because of superior USD weakness and UJ taking a hit - now we could be destroying value over the majors and exotics faster than anyone likes thanks to USD strength(just look at AUDXXX) and unwinding due to that.

The math on the carry just doesn't work out anymore if we move too rapidly on either side against the yield margin. So it will be interesting to see whether things do get hit and where the hitting comes from mainly this time around.

Things are looking to be a hot summer after all
Well, or at least a tempered autumn!

P.S. Isn't Wall Street reporting funny? First it was Oil's fault that earnings/profits were crap and costs so high, so it was a strain on stocks, also, why, inflation! But oil related stocks propelled higher. Now you read the oil related stocks get hit..I mean..er, you can just about turn anything either way, can'tcha?
Silly nadgers.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #709
  • Edited 2:22pm Aug 6, 2008 2:08pm | Edited 2:22pm
Is it me, an optical illusion or is there really a good chance we have interim swing lows in the stock markets? (*coughandperhapstheusdcough*)
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #710
  • Aug 6, 2008 2:10pm Aug 6, 2008 2:10pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Is it me, an optical illusion or is there really a good chance we have interim swing lows in the stock markets?
one of the first 2, for sure

  • #711
  • Aug 6, 2008 9:57pm Aug 6, 2008 9:57pm
I think the US markets are in the beginning of a strong move up if we can clear the high of 1291.17 (S&P500 cash) of July 23rd. DAX looks similar, higher highs and higher lows, needing to get above swing high from July 24th.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #712
  • Aug 12, 2008 5:14pm Aug 12, 2008 5:14pm
Merlin,

Not sure else how to track you down - now that you are retired and likely eating dinner at 3:30-4 PM each day and tucked in by 7:30 PM

At any rate, I had a question for you - would be good enough to shoot me an email - you know my email address.

Thanks buddy.

Dave





Quoting merlin
because the panic has time to build up over the weekend.

this dow bounce off the 11k level looks like another good short opportunity. im still waiting for the outright crash so i can pick up some cheap stocks (already a few in the banking sector), but playing short in the meantime seems like a great way to pass the time
  • #713
  • Aug 13, 2008 3:47pm Aug 13, 2008 3:47pm
Quoting SunTrader
I think the US markets are in the beginning of a strong move up if we can clear the high of 1291.17 (S&P500 cash) of July 23rd. DAX looks similar, higher highs and higher lows, needing to get above swing high from July 24th.
I think nothing has changed fundamentally and big machines have been kicking traders butts with their huge program buying and selling. This environment is not for the faint of heart. People just don't know what to do. I for one think doing nothing is prudent unless your a scalper.
Check Mate GAME OVER
  • #714
  • Aug 13, 2008 3:59pm Aug 13, 2008 3:59pm
HL's = uptrend

LH's = downtrend.

As simple as that. Since 7/15/08 looks like the former and that is the way I am biased until it changes. No matter the funnymentals.

Having said that I do realize things can change quickly. Very quickly.
  • #715
  • Aug 14, 2008 9:32am Aug 14, 2008 9:32am
The Mini-Dow futures respected that up-trending support line (HL, HH) on the day chart and bounced off the 90 SMA on the 4H which virtually intersects the Day uptrend line.

The oscillators (Stoc and RSI) look a bit uncertain and there seems overhead resistance around 11,635 for the Dow and 1285 for the S&P, but if it can climb over the 1295 as ST has pointed out then maybe the run can continue for a while longer.

Is it a case of US stocks benefiting from an expectation of declining inflation (TIPS) and compared to the cycle in other markets maybe looking relatively inexpensive?
  • #716
  • Aug 15, 2008 10:10am Aug 15, 2008 10:10am
It is odd that bond prices continue to rise/bond yields falling along with rising equities.

Normally bond prices fall and yields rise in this sort of scenario, but the opposite is occurring.

The question is why, especially as inflation rates are also rising implying lower bond prices and higher yields/higher interest rates.
  • #717
  • Aug 19, 2008 5:24pm Aug 19, 2008 5:24pm
Quoting roro53
Normally bond prices fall and yields rise in this sort of scenario, but the opposite is occurring.
equities have a mind of their own, ive never been able to figure them out in terms of correlation with bonds and other markets. its hard to even say how economic indicator affect equities. this opposite logic with bonds has persisted ever since greenspan started raising rates! what im truly baffled by is the latest strength of the stock market in the face of so much credit turmoil. ive been attributing it to the weak dollar which has been great for manufacturers, but with the dollar getting strong maybe that will change. im still patiently waiting for the crash LOL.
Relax and be happy.
  • #718
  • Aug 19, 2008 5:49pm Aug 19, 2008 5:49pm
Quoting merlin
im still patiently waiting for the crash LOL.
LOL

I've always handled mid to long term equities positioning using a "bargain price" --> "Chart Buy" method.

If something has a good outlook (at my discretion) with bargain fundamentals then I don't care where other markets are heading. Why not? It works very well. I'm sure a very large proportion of equities traders use this approach.

(One correlation I take advantage of is day-trading gold stocks when gold makes a major move, or Oil stocks when Oil makes a major move etc. With equities, that's as far as I take the correlation angle.)

.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #719
  • Aug 20, 2008 6:33am Aug 20, 2008 6:33am
Hi Merlin,

Besides currencies I trade the mini equity index futures (Dow, S&P, Nasdaq) along with Treasury futures (10 Yr Notes) so took the rising price of the 10 year Notes as an indicator the stock market rally was probably starting to weaken.

At some point the Treasuries are likely to offer an excellent short opportunity since the yields are negative after current inflation and price is approaching a significant resistance level (Day chart) not seen since last March during the Bear Sterns scare, but the 4H chart looks like price may run at least a bit higher yet..........watching it anyway.

If there is a bank failure of significant proportion as Kenneth Rogoff and others have indicated is more than probable then the 'flight to safety' issue is another risk that may drive Treasury prices higher.

LOL.......A big bank failure might help to cause the crash you have been so patiently waitng for.
  • #720
  • Aug 20, 2008 6:39am Aug 20, 2008 6:39am
Quoting roro53
If there is a bank failure of significant proportion as Kenneth Rogoff and others have indicated is more than probable then the 'flight to safety' issue is another risk that may drive Treasury prices higher.

LOL.......A big bank failure might help to cause the crash you have been so patiently waitng for.
Seen articles and comments, this time not saying "there are more shoes to drop", but "there's another shoe to drop", like if everybody know whose.

And they are unanimous that there is no "correction" without some big bank getting flushed out of the market. Sounds too armaggedon to me, but after the Bear Stearns Black Monday, what do I know?
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