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Wall Street close watch

  • #681
  • Jul 12, 2008 12:40pm Jul 12, 2008 12:40pm
Quoting merlin
i wont be surprised if monday turns out to be a black one
But what do you think of the iPhone 2 release effect? Apple will surely come out with a line like "we sold X million devices last friday!!" and people will buy blue-chip, no? I'm so glad I don't trade stocks.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #682
  • Jul 12, 2008 1:52pm Jul 12, 2008 1:52pm
Apple has been struggling with software activation problems yesterday and today. Although they say that it is 'solved' now. Overloaded servers can only be fixed by less traffic or more servers. I wonder if they are just counting on traffic subsiding because of the weekend.

I would expect a pop in stock but if the markets overall sell off, so will AAPL.
  • #683
  • Jul 12, 2008 1:56pm Jul 12, 2008 1:56pm
we all expect a black monday coming soon again... I'll watch it carefully this one.... Why does it always happen on mondays?
  • #684
  • Jul 12, 2008 8:48pm Jul 12, 2008 8:48pm
Quoting SunTrader
Apple has been struggling with software activation problems yesterday and today. Although they say that it is 'solved' now. Overloaded servers can only be fixed by less traffic or more servers. I wonder if they are just counting on traffic subsiding because of the weekend.

I would expect a pop in stock but if the markets overall sell off, so will AAPL.
Yeah, I've heard stories of people walking out with non-activated phones. And the phones have already been jailbroken anyway. Part of the reason I don't buy into companies like Apple (although it's supposed to be *the* investment these days) is that their dependence on closed-software, obfuscation, locking..etc makes them very vulnerable. You never know when they'll take a hit unless you watch phone-hacker forums from eastern europe. It's no use making good products if your business models suck.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #685
  • Jul 13, 2008 9:09am Jul 13, 2008 9:09am
Quoting Plutonite
their dependence on closed-software, obfuscation, locking..etc makes them very vulnerable.
Yea. This never worked for Microsoft either, look how far they got.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #686
  • Jul 13, 2008 9:56am Jul 13, 2008 9:56am
Quoting merlin
i wont be surprised if monday turns out to be a black one
I wouldn't mind it either given the correlations. But I'm still worried about the "proximity" to the s/r zones still and the divergence.

Oddly enough, the DJI doesn't seem as affected(barely new lows on MACD on daily/weekly) as the DAX and S&P(both diverge on both).

I would have preferred a cleaner picture on both USDX and equities.

But I'm sure our local wizard will just magick it all alright
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #687
  • Jul 13, 2008 12:40pm Jul 13, 2008 12:40pm
hi
a dow monthly chart...
look where the dow reached in previous crisis... magenta moving averages support.. and reached upper trendline just to enter into the 2001-2002 crisis in the magenta area... now we are in a similar situation... magenta support...

I wonder if it would make the same... little rally and down to magenta area. it seems the upper trendline resistance has more slope now.. which means... more fear.. and bad. Maybe everything goes to hell and we go to the magenta area without the little rally.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dow analysis.png Size: 77 KB
  • #688
  • Jul 13, 2008 2:40pm Jul 13, 2008 2:40pm
What scaling are you using on that chart. Linear, log or semi-log?

It makes a difference comparing slope from different periods.
  • #689
  • Jul 18, 2008 9:51am Jul 18, 2008 9:51am
SL,

Looks like DAX has a clean break of down trendline (?) next week will tell the truth if 6000 will hold.

Sun
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Dax.PNG Size: 31 KB
  • #690
  • Jul 18, 2008 11:53am Jul 18, 2008 11:53am
Quoting SeekingLight
I wouldn't mind it either given the correlations. But I'm still worried about the "proximity" to the s/r zones still and the divergence.

Oddly enough, the DJI doesn't seem as affected(barely new lows on MACD on daily/weekly) as the DAX and S&P(both diverge on both).
Hey Sun. Yea, appears we finally got the divergence short squeeze I kept going on about. Pretty ugly across the board, including the JPY. More than overexaggerated there.
6500 area is my flip zone. Above 6620 and it's no longer a sensible move to me.
Basically almost all indices are at levels plus minus a few handful from which I would expect some selling to come.

We'll see. A lot of these squeeze rallies exhaust on turnaround timing points such as weekly closes. Just as the shorts were overdone, so can the longs be, especially if they move these oversized steps. IMHO.
What do I know.

Have a great weekend (+ everyone).
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #691
  • Jul 27, 2008 2:55pm Jul 27, 2008 2:55pm
Quoting emda
Why does it always happen on mondays?
because the panic has time to build up over the weekend.

this dow bounce off the 11k level looks like another good short opportunity. im still waiting for the outright crash so i can pick up some cheap stocks (already a few in the banking sector), but playing short in the meantime seems like a great way to pass the time
Relax and be happy.
  • #692
  • Jul 27, 2008 4:16pm Jul 27, 2008 4:16pm
Quoting merlin
because the panic has time to build up over the weekend.

this dow bounce off the 11k level looks like another good short opportunity. im still waiting for the outright crash so i can pick up some cheap stocks (already a few in the banking sector), but playing short in the meantime seems like a great way to pass the time
Maybe one more rally with this weekend's news on the kickass bailo.... I mean, "housing market rescue bill" (http://www.cnbc.com/id/25862539)

Well, it will rescue bill, joe, jimmy, tom, frank....
  • #693
  • Jul 28, 2008 3:36am Jul 28, 2008 3:36am
tom... dick... harry... fred and barney... bernie mac... everybody and their mom.
i'll take the shorts, thank you.

Quoting cesarnc
Maybe one more rally with this weekend's news on the kickass bailo.... I mean, "housing market rescue bill" (http://www.cnbc.com/id/25862539)

Well, it will rescue bill, joe, jimmy, tom, frank....
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #694
  • Jul 28, 2008 10:34am Jul 28, 2008 10:34am
Dax got the pop up, almost to 6600, into retrace mode now.

I believe down to 6200 area but then higher.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #695
  • Jul 28, 2008 12:31pm Jul 28, 2008 12:31pm
Quoting cesarnc
Maybe one more rally with this weekend's news on the kickass bailo.... I mean, "housing market rescue bill" (http://www.cnbc.com/id/25862539)

Well, it will rescue bill, joe, jimmy, tom, frank....
I was wrrrroonnggg

"July 28 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell, led by financial companies, after the International Monetary Fund said there is no end in sight to the housing slump." (Dow -178 so far).

IMF 1 x 0 US $300 billion bailout
  • #696
  • Jul 28, 2008 1:04pm Jul 28, 2008 1:04pm
Quoting cesarnc
I was wrrrroonnggg

"July 28 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell, led by financial companies, after the International Monetary Fund said there is no end in sight to the housing slump." (Dow -178 so far).

IMF 1 x 0 US $300 billion bailout
Make it -239, thank you very much
  • #697
  • Jul 28, 2008 1:53pm Jul 28, 2008 1:53pm
IMF, really? People follow what they say?
  • #698
  • Jul 28, 2008 2:46pm Jul 28, 2008 2:46pm
Quoting SunTrader
IMF, really? People follow what they say?
Yo Sun Trader!

Any joe in suit and tie on any sidewalk in Wall Street saying the magic words housing, slump, still, concern will cause stocks to tumble these days.
  • #699
  • Jul 28, 2008 3:27pm Jul 28, 2008 3:27pm
Bloomberg said the reason was the IMF. They need to write something to explain why. How about the fact we are in a bear market and there are more sellers than buyers. Sellers really don't need a reason, good or bad.

Buyers are the ones who need a reason, a good one, why to buy this market.
Hey Bush leaves in 6 months. Mark your calendar.
  • #700
  • Jul 28, 2008 3:42pm Jul 28, 2008 3:42pm
Quoting SunTrader
Hey Bush leaves in 6 months. Mark your calendar.
http://www.whoateallthepies.tv/jafsfsafafaas.gif

Lula leaves in 2 years and a half
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