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  • #5,141
  • Aug 14, 2008 7:07pm Aug 14, 2008 7:07pm
Quoting Shermenator
Alright here is what I think so far keep in mind it can change as we get closer to trading time...

If price takes out 8705 with momentum swing high (green fibb)...I would consider taking a trade long since price would be reversing the last swing in price as well as price would be rejecting the swing low (red fibb) though it would be a riskier trade since I would be taking a brake prior to the intraday long failure...Once in the trade I would begin to fallow price with my swing fibb and would begin to look at momentum at the counter fibb targets and make a decion on either to hold or not...

Attachment

I would also pull my swing fibb back if I do decide to go long to watch key resistance levels against my long here is the pic...

Attachment



Now if price comes up a bitt but price holds at the swing (green swing ) and we begin to brake lows I would short the market and once again watch price at intraday low...Keep in mind we have a head and shoulders forming as well...

Have no Bias in the market...just fallow price...

Let me know what you think...

Bo give me your opinion please
Pull the low of that Red Fib down to the low of today, leave your Intraday as it is since that is what we are reacting to at the moment and there is no need for a swing to your Intraday yet since price isnt really moving against it since we keep making lower lows, once it attempts to retrace again then start pulling a swing. That will tell you if we can continue down by price breaking the support of a move that attempts to test the Intradays levels again. If the Intraday levels hold and the swing you pull levels also show support....we are seeing ranging again. We stay short as long as the levels from your Intraday remain unbroken, look to scalp a long if they break. The swing fib is just an early indication of whats happening in regards to your Intraday.
  • #5,142
  • Aug 14, 2008 9:25pm Aug 14, 2008 9:25pm
Take a look at this....

In my first picture we have 3 arrows....

The first arrow is based on the fact of when price brakes the swing long of this fibb you can take a trade long....though I would not take it simply because we have no space in the market since resistance is right at that point...and If is taken it would be stricktly a scalp since it would be based on momentum....

Now my second arrow is based on the break of the swing high....and I would expect momentum to kick in but once again its a low probabilty trade since its against the intraday levels and we have no space....my question to this option of trade is lets say you take it is perfectly fine to close your trade as soon as the targets of this green fibb get hit since its a scalp?

Third arrow and higher probabilty trade is an arrow showing the break of the intraday long and I would be paying close attention at the intraday high since that would put the sellers back in at the red swing fibb short.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Now here is the other swing I can look at and make calls on this fibb...either way if I take a trade on either of my 3 options from above I would start to look at this resistance fibb to see if my trade whants to mess up...

Now on my fallowing picure the larger swing fibb resistence tear ( green fibb)
shows us that we have enough space to look for a trade back to the intraday levels but I wont take it simply because the swing I showed you on my first picture shows me not enough space back to the intraday levels...

I see two trades on this swing and that is the close above the intraday long or to wait for a close above this swing long...though to me a close above the intraday long would already be enough to be worth trading. Since this swing is larger does this mean higher probabilty?

I am trying to determine how much importance is right to give to the swing relative to the intraday since once again I have to keep in my head that the intraday is key...also Bo since this are trades with low probabilty (most of my examples are aginst the intraday) would it be smart to be using the low or high of the previous candle as a stop once you enter in a trade against the intraday levels in any of this examples?

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Thanks BOBOKUS
  • #5,143
  • Aug 14, 2008 9:46pm Aug 14, 2008 9:46pm
dear bobokus and shermenator.......i now know what that i dont understand with trading fibs......so there are a few things that i would like to ask you guys.... one how do you know to go short or long from a current swing fib....and how do you pull a swing fibs.....i am asking this is because i was using this method from bobokus...... i guess i currently i little confuse because with the current market i dont actully know whethere the swing fibs i pull are correct....and could you guys pls explain how do decide to long or short...pls help me...
  • #5,144
  • Aug 14, 2008 10:01pm Aug 14, 2008 10:01pm
could you guys give me your current templete.... i would to compare it to mine...thankx
  • #5,145
  • Aug 14, 2008 10:31pm Aug 14, 2008 10:31pm
hi bobokus $ shermenator
can you tell me where i must put the uptrend - downtrend - resistance and support fibo level for any pairs that we want . how you do that.
which point is important and which time?
  • #5,146
  • Aug 15, 2008 12:24am Aug 15, 2008 12:24am
A great start to the European trading day, as cable sold off right from the Frankfurt Open and dropped 90 quick pips into the confluence of levels just above the 550 level - T1, the 1.38 extension and the mid pivot level too.

Now to see if the Brits are serious about buying down here, or was the bounce just profit taking? TWT....


The Euro and the Swissy have also made new highs / lows for their respective moves, but with much less conviction than cable's.
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #5,147
  • Aug 15, 2008 12:56am Aug 15, 2008 12:56am
Good job Mate, How are you Issy.....

I noticed the YEN boys were playing the dollar pretty hard during the Asian session so I figured the Frankie/London open boys would pick up the slack on the other majors.......got in some nice shorts on Euro and Cable.
trading naked.......
  • #5,148
  • Aug 15, 2008 4:22am Aug 15, 2008 4:22am
Quoting Shermenator
Alright here is what I think so far keep in mind it can change as we get closer to trading time...

If price takes out 8705 with momentum swing high (green fibb)...I would consider taking a trade long since price would be reversing the last swing in price as well as price would be rejecting the swing low (red fibb) though it would be a riskier trade since I would be taking a brake prior to the intraday long failure...Once in the trade I would begin to fallow price with my swing fibb and would begin to look at momentum at the counter fibb targets and make a decion on either to hold or not...

Attachment

I would also pull my swing fibb back if I do decide to go long to watch key resistance levels against my long here is the pic...

Attachment



Now if price comes up a bitt but price holds at the swing (green swing ) and we begin to brake lows I would short the market and once again watch price at intraday low...Keep in mind we have a head and shoulders forming as well...

Have no Bias in the market...just fallow price...

Let me know what you think...

Bo give me your opinion please
Hey Shermenator,

I think my battery died last night, after sleeping only for 4 hour the last nights yesterday I got to my limit and slept the whole night. I know I will talk about the past but I'd like to share my thoughts with you too.

First, thanks a lot for sharing your thoughts, I'd appreciate if you keep doing this, It helps me to see another point of view what it's good.

I understood your plan to go long, the clue is the intraday long level.. any long before it, has to be scalp as Bo confirmed and I think I'm not prepared to this kind of emotions yet.

One thing that I noticed this morning (Ok, the market already made the move down and know it's easier to say) The light blue fib gave a clear signal that market would go short still when it tried to break Intraday Pivot but it failed twice, but since Bo said it's not safe to start a trade at the end of the day,so maybe we needed another confirmation that I think we had if we moved our swing fib as I showed in the picture and go short when the market broke Swing Low.

Thanks a lot again!
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  • #5,149
  • Aug 15, 2008 6:18am Aug 15, 2008 6:18am
EU still looking bearish, last 2 candles came up and tested the swing pivot and it's still well below the intraday short. I took a short on the opening of the next candle. Bo Sherm, anyone, is this how you would have taken this trade.
Thanks
Attached Image
  • #5,150
  • Aug 15, 2008 6:19am Aug 15, 2008 6:19am
Quoting Islander
A great start to the European trading day, as cable sold off right from the Frankfurt Open and dropped 90 quick pips into the confluence of levels just above the 550 level - T1, the 1.38 extension and the mid pivot level too.

Now to see if the Brits are serious about buying down here, or was the bounce just profit taking? TWT....


The Euro and the Swissy have also made new highs / lows for their respective moves, but with much less conviction than cable's.
Well the Brits waited an hour and a half before buying. This allowed price to drop to my T2 - the 1.618 at 1.8516 and just under the S2 level of 8524.

I waited until the Euro bounced off its 1.4700 level and the Swissy its 1.100 before buying the bounce - I've just closed this long as price hit the 61.8% retrace at 1.8681.

Plenty of pips in my bank so I'm done until next week.....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #5,151
  • Aug 15, 2008 6:34am Aug 15, 2008 6:34am
Whew!!! Finally finished reading thru the entire thread.
What a wealth of information to absorb and digest!!

Bo, would you still consider getting something like a get-together going?
Like what skunny was trying to do?
I'm sure you'd have a helluva turnout just from the followers of this thread.

Maybe a seminar at a hotel meeting room.

But if thats a no go then the next best thing is the tradingrooms style forum.

Happy Pippin'
KC
  • #5,152
  • Aug 15, 2008 7:08am Aug 15, 2008 7:08am
I'm locked in @ +40 pips right now with a TSL, let's see if this next candle stays below 4700, too early to tell right now.

Quoting greywolf238
EU still looking bearish, last 2 candles came up and tested the swing pivot and it's still well below the intraday short. I took a short on the opening of the next candle. Bo Sherm, anyone, is this how you would have taken this trade.
Thanks
  • #5,153
  • Aug 15, 2008 8:03am Aug 15, 2008 8:03am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
I just took a set-up...late in the day though. Wondering if valid (chart 1)? I'm looking at the swing of yesterday's intraday high to today's low. Price formed Evening Star at .618 of the swing from yesterday's high to this morning's low (and it's at support now resistance), and then it opened below swing short. Blue Box is where I'd think trade is no good anymore. If it exceeds 1.8681, then I know support is holding and it's probably best to exit (chart 2 shows this swing). I guess my question is how do I know which swing to pick? I'm thinking the higher probability trade is with the intraday trend and the swing from chart 2 is treated as a scalp, but I still don't really understand how to pick the swing to actually trade off because both fibs show two differnt scenario's. I only know the swing from chart 2 is valid once price breaks 8681 resulting in a loss and I know if the trade I took is valid if price breaks the lows. Do you see my dilemna here?
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"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #5,154
  • Aug 15, 2008 8:08am Aug 15, 2008 8:08am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
So now price has opened above Swing Long on the swing from the second chart, but still testing the fib levels from the first chart. So which one is valid?
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"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #5,155
  • Aug 15, 2008 8:41am Aug 15, 2008 8:41am
Quoting FxChi
So now price has opened above Swing Long on the swing from the second chart, but still testing the fib levels from the first chart. So which one is valid?
This is how i would draw my fibs, which is basically like your chart2, i would not take a long trade because even tho price is above the swing long, it's floating around between the intraday pivot and short and doesn't know which way to go yet.
Just my noob opinion
Attached Image
  • #5,156
  • Aug 15, 2008 9:01am Aug 15, 2008 9:01am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
I'm thinking the best way to trade it is with a stop reverse right above the swing high in chart 2 targeting 8746, but I think I just might close it all together if price can maintain above that level and wait for another day.
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #5,157
  • Aug 15, 2008 9:57am Aug 15, 2008 9:57am
My mantra is I don't trade on fridays, end of the week and everyone except the big boys are getting out of their positions.
but thats just me

Happy Pippin'
KC

Quoting FxChi
I'm thinking the best way to trade it is with a stop reverse right above the swing high in chart 2 targeting 8746, but I think I just might close it all together if price can maintain above that level and wait for another day.
  • #5,158
  • Aug 15, 2008 10:24am Aug 15, 2008 10:24am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Quoting kc8flq
My mantra is I don't trade on fridays, end of the week and everyone except the big boys are getting out of their positions.
but thats just me

Happy Pippin'
KC
I just closed it a few minutes ago with +7. Still favor shorts but I think it might get a little rangy and don't want to hold over the weekend, so I'll take my 7 and wait for next week. I've heard that about Friday's, but just wondering what Bo thought about the set-up and various fibs and which one to pay attention to and how to determine that. I believe that any day can be traded provided there's enough volume for momentum and there's a set-up, but that's just my perspective. I'm thinking even if the big boys are getting out of their positions, shouldn't we see clues on our charts based on following along with our fibs? Either support/resistance holds or it doesn't right?
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #5,159
  • Aug 15, 2008 10:36am Aug 15, 2008 10:36am
Quoting FxChi
I just took a set-up...late in the day though. Wondering if valid (chart 1)? I'm looking at the swing of yesterday's intraday high to today's low. Price formed Evening Star at .618 of the swing from yesterday's high to this morning's low (and it's at support now resistance), and then it opened below swing short. Blue Box is where I'd think trade is no good anymore. If it exceeds 1.8681, then I know support is holding and it's probably best to exit (chart 2 shows this swing). I guess my question is how do I know which swing to pick? I'm thinking the higher probability trade is with the intraday trend and the swing from chart 2 is treated as a scalp, but I still don't really understand how to pick the swing to actually trade off because both fibs show two differnt scenario's. I only know the swing from chart 2 is valid once price breaks 8681 resulting in a loss and I know if the trade I took is valid if price breaks the lows. Do you see my dilemna here?
Ya'll are still worring or putting too much emphasis on the swing fib. Dont even put it on the chart unless you want it too show you support or resistance levels from something that has happened in referrence to an Intraday fib.DOnt look to enter any trades from what you see from a swing fib its the Intraday that you want to base your trades from. Following entry's frome each swing can make you trade every single movement that price makes and even trade against the market. These next 3 charts is all that was needed through the last few sessions. Only 3 things have happend since yesterday, the failure to test the Intraday levels a second time and the break of the low from that. 2nd was the bounce from yesterdays target range to test resistance from the last movement down ..which held. 3rd the test of support now that initial test of reistance today held and from that so far support has held and if that continues the rest of today...its not going anywhere. Today will be over considering the time left.
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  • #5,160
  • Aug 15, 2008 10:57am Aug 15, 2008 10:57am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Quoting Bobokus
Ya'll are still worring or putting too much emphasis on the swing fib. Dont even put it on the chart unless you want it too show you support or resistance levels from something that has happened in referrence to an Intraday fib.DOnt look to enter any trades from what you see from a swing fib its the Intraday that you want to base your trades from. Following entry's frome each swing can make you trade every single movement that price makes and even trade against the market. These next 3 charts is all that was needed through the last few sessions. Only 3 things have happend since yesterday, the failure to test the Intraday levels a second time and the break of the low from that. 2nd was the bounce from yesterdays target range to test resistance from the last movement down ..which held. 3rd the test of support now that initial test of reistance today held and from that so far support has held and if that continues the rest of today...its not going anywhere. Today will be over considering the time left.
If we miss the break of the lows, are we left with trading anything else?
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
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