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The Pouria Method

  • #361
  • Feb 13, 2007 4:24pm Feb 13, 2007 4:24pm
Quoting Spudfyre
I did quick and dirty tests on the EURGBP and EURJPY using Simple Pouria and had excellent results.

EURGBP (H1) I lowered the TP to 15 pips but kept the SL at 30 pips.
EURJPY (M30) I kept the TP at 20 pips and SL at 30 pips.

I back tested to Jan 1 on each pair and the results were both above 90%. In both cases if the SL was not hit but the 5 MA retraced I closed the failed trade and increased the new open trade to cover my previous loss.

Again, most stops required were under 12 pips and most carry over losses were under 10 pips.

I am certain with more study there could be a much better strategy to capture the large pip gains that are missed.

Nice work Spudfyre! Appreciate the time and effort that went into this. I was going to do manual backtest of simple Pouria just to get more familiar with the system.

I will try and do GBP/USD at the week-end if time permits.

Thanks again...
  • #362
  • Feb 13, 2007 4:25pm Feb 13, 2007 4:25pm
Quoting jarroo
Testing the Simple verison of the method. (No MACD).

Jim
I thought I was trading the original method and the only confirmation from MACD that was needed was that

short: "the confirmation from the MACD it has to be downward too"
LONG: "the confirmation from the MACD it has to be upward too"

Actually I probably shouldn't have even waited for the first candle to close after the 5MA crossed the long MAs, would have gotten me out of the trade profitably by now.

BTW CHF/JPY also looking like it will signal soon.
  • #363
  • Feb 13, 2007 4:26pm Feb 13, 2007 4:26pm
Quoting ghamal
I thought MACD just needed to be heading in the direction of the trade. The first post doesn't mention that MACD needs to be > 0 for long or < 0 for short, it just says moving "upward" for long and "downward" for short. Waiting for MACD to be positive o negative would seem to cut down the number of signals alot.

I'm long from 9469 (open of candle an hour ago). Just got charged swap so it better work out lol
I thought that was the whole point of MACD to filter out unwanted trades, so if the cross happened to the upside but MACD below 0 the trade whould not be taken thats how i viewed it. If you look at the past data it does in some cases stop you from making bad trades but only sometimes, most of the times it will confirm loosing trade anyway.
  • #364
  • Feb 13, 2007 4:44pm Feb 13, 2007 4:44pm
Quoting lexazver
I thought that was the whole point of MACD to filter out unwanted trades, so if the cross happened to the upside but MACD below 0 the trade whould not be taken thats how i viewed it. If you look at the past data it does in some cases stop you from making bad trades but only sometimes, most of the times it will confirm loosing trade anyway.
I think what forexpert310 meant is that the slope of the MACD should heading up or down according to the trade, not that it should be >0 or <0. i.e. there should not be divergence between MACD and the 5MA.

Waiting for MACD to cross 0 seems safer, but it might get you in too late, and this system seems to work because it uses the MAs to spot times where the momentum has a high probability of getting you a quick 10 - 20 pips. idk you have more screen time backtesting this so I am hoping to hear what you keep finding.
  • #365
  • Feb 13, 2007 5:11pm Feb 13, 2007 5:11pm
I am by no means a mq4 programmer but made some changes to accommodate the mini accounts. someone please double check the code.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 pdvm.mq4   43 KB | 389 downloads
  • #366
  • Feb 13, 2007 5:15pm Feb 13, 2007 5:15pm
well im testing it on live account atm, been good to me so far will see how it goes but i see potential in this system, just checked some past trades and you are right once EMA5 crosses its better to enter straight away thatn waiting for MACD and besides in majority of cases MACD will cross above 0 anyway. Also the strategy i will be using in terms of money management is as follows: If it is a winning trade then keep position the same for 5 winning trades then increase. If i get loosing trade then on the next trade i will put the same amount of money , in after loosing trade winning trade comes then continue with the same position size but if 2nd consecutive loss will come then i will double up on the next position. So far the max number of negative trades been 7 however i will have a look again at that without waiting for MACD to cross over 0.000 line, other than that one incident max number of consecutive lossses had been 3which means that i would have to double up 3 times which i can comfortably do I dont leverage up yet on this strategy since Im only testing it right now so i can double up about 7-8 times comfortably.
will see how it goes, ill try to keep you posted if you want
  • #367
  • Feb 13, 2007 5:23pm Feb 13, 2007 5:23pm
Quoting ghamal
I think what forexpert310 meant is that the slope of the MACD should heading up or down according to the trade, not that it should be >0 or <0. i.e. there should not be divergence between MACD and the 5MA.

Waiting for MACD to cross 0 seems safer, but it might get you in too late, and this system seems to work because it uses the MAs to spot times where the momentum has a high probability of getting you a quick 10 - 20 pips. idk you have more screen time backtesting this so I am hoping to hear what you keep finding.
I founding this method but with an additional confirmation on my own.
That why I got in earlier.
Attached Image
  • #368
  • Feb 13, 2007 5:27pm Feb 13, 2007 5:27pm
Just a quick addition to the above, i looked at the 7 consecutive loosing trades and it turnes out that i did it wrong and there was one winning in the middle which makes it 3 loosing 1 winner and 3 lossers again, and i didnt try to give it the benefit of a doubt or tried to persuade myself that it was a winning trade it actualy was. But once again i confirmed to myself not to trade before major news.
  • #369
  • Feb 13, 2007 5:34pm Feb 13, 2007 5:34pm
Quoting jborgesnm
I am by no means a mq4 programmer but made some changes to accommodate the mini accounts. someone please double check the code.

I found a minor mistake on my part for audjpy.
Here are the minor update.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 pdv.mq4   42 KB | 556 downloads
File Type: mq4 pdvm.mq4   43 KB | 562 downloads
  • #370
  • Feb 13, 2007 5:51pm Feb 13, 2007 5:51pm
Quoting lexazver
well im testing it on live account atm, been good to me so far will see how it goes but i see potential in this system, just checked some past trades and you are right once EMA5 crosses its better to enter straight away thatn waiting for MACD and besides in majority of cases MACD will cross above 0 anyway. Also the strategy i will be using in terms of money management is as follows: If it is a winning trade then keep position the same for 5 winning trades then increase. If i get loosing trade then on the next trade i will put the same amount of money , in after loosing trade winning trade comes then continue with the same position size but if 2nd consecutive loss will come then i will double up on the next position. So far the max number of negative trades been 7 however i will have a look again at that without waiting for MACD to cross over 0.000 line, other than that one incident max number of consecutive lossses had been 3which means that i would have to double up 3 times which i can comfortably do I dont leverage up yet on this strategy since Im only testing it right now so i can double up about 7-8 times comfortably.
will see how it goes, ill try to keep you posted if you want
I see potential too. And yes the martingale method would be nice for this system as the consecutive # of loses seem low (you say around 3 in your backtesting?). Well, thats the theory anyway. Please keep me posted of your results, i will do the same.
  • #371
  • Feb 13, 2007 6:18pm Feb 13, 2007 6:18pm
Has anybody considered using 75 and 85 WMAs on the highs for short entries? I've done some manual backtesting with this system and it seems as though there are more losing short trades than long trades. Has anybody else found this to be the case?

If this is accurate, I think it might make sense to add 75 and 85 WMAs on the high prices and use that band of moving averages for short entries and use the 75 and 85 WMAs on the lows for long entries.
  • #372
  • Feb 13, 2007 6:50pm Feb 13, 2007 6:50pm
I just started demo testing this as well and I have adjusted the EUR/USD TP to 30 pips and the GBP/USD to 85 pips. The only reason being that the EUR doesn't move the same distance as the GBP and I'd rather 1) be profitable and 2) not have to hold a trade for too long as the EA will get another signal as we go.

So far I am in two EA activated demo trades:

EUR/USD B @ 3026 +9 so far
GBP/USD B @ 9453 +19 so far

CLOSED BOTH ABOVE: EUR +11, GBP +20 for +31 overall

EA has just activated two more:

EUR/USD B @ 3038
GBP/USD B @ 9477
  • #373
  • Feb 13, 2007 7:08pm Feb 13, 2007 7:08pm
I back tested my nemisis the USDCAD on the H1 for Nov/Dec 2006.

I simply used 30 PIP S/L and 20 PIP TP as I didn't have time to statistically measure the stops and maximum profits that would optimize this to some degree.
I am sure this can be improved with more detailed statistical analysis.
This was done with my earlier explanation of the Simple Pouria with no MACD.....e.g. Candle must close and the 5 MA has to be definitely clear and across the 75/85 MA.

Maximum drawdown was 30 pips with the average being less than 12 pips.

Results are positive.

November
+143 PIPS 9 Wins 3 Losses 75% Success

December
+212 PIPS 10 Wins 3 Losses 77% Success

I really like the consistency between the 2 months. Attached are the details of the study.

Hopefully someone can develop an EA so that we can optimize each pair...my eyes are going buggy doing this by hand.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Simple Pouria Results NovDec 2006 USDCAD.zip   3 KB | 610 downloads
  • #374
  • Feb 13, 2007 8:16pm Feb 13, 2007 8:16pm
Quoting luxinterior
Sorry Dan. I was applying it to the open not the close I've been at this a while and my eyes are starting to blur

Fixed it now and also done ANOTHER update - The last I promise...for now!

With this one you can specify the maximum/minimum angle you're interested in seeing signals for. So for instance if you set it to 2 you'll only be given signals if the MACD is +/- 2 when crossing the MA's...It certainly makes for some pretty accurate signals looking back at the charts. Obviously each pair is different so you'll have to play with the settings to get the optimum ones but I've given plenty of options so go WILD!

If you find any killer settings please post them for all to enjoy.

Lux
Hi luxinterior,Thanks for your indicator. How do change the alert sound? I changed mine to one I have in my sound folder, but I still get the default sound. Apprreciate your assistance.
  • #375
  • Feb 13, 2007 9:25pm Feb 13, 2007 9:25pm
Quoting mickeymickey
Has anybody considered using 75 and 85 WMAs on the highs for short entries? I've done some manual backtesting with this system and it seems as though there are more losing short trades than long trades. Has anybody else found this to be the case?

If this is accurate, I think it might make sense to add 75 and 85 WMAs on the high prices and use that band of moving averages for short entries and use the 75 and 85 WMAs on the lows for long entries.
I considered it and I will add the WMAs on High to my charts.
In my eyes it only makes sense, thats why I asked earlier about why the WMAs are applied to the Low.
  • #376
  • Feb 13, 2007 9:58pm Feb 13, 2007 9:58pm

hello all...


im starting to study this thread for a week...but im strugling here..
what i mean i when to open trade???....
is it on open candle????....
is it as soon as ma's crossed???....
is it on the price action??...

can someone answer me???anyone...

"Analysis Is Hard But Trade Is Easy"
  • #377
  • Feb 13, 2007 10:29pm Feb 13, 2007 10:29pm
Quoting Se[V]eN

hello all...


im starting to study this thread for a week...but im strugling here..
what i mean i when to open trade???....
is it on open candle????....
is it as soon as ma's crossed???....
is it on the price action??...

can someone answer me???anyone...

enter when ma's crossed and macd either above 0 when long or below 0 when short.
  • #378
  • Feb 13, 2007 10:32pm Feb 13, 2007 10:32pm
Quoting Se[V]eN

hello all...




im starting to study this thread for a week...but im strugling here..
what i mean i when to open trade???....
is it on open candle????....
is it as soon as ma's crossed???....
is it on the price action??...


can someone answer me???anyone...

My method is like driving a car with a seatbelt on, my MACD and close of the candle rule plays seatbelt’s role, some people drive without a seatbelt, they “could” get into an accident and get hurt or they can survive, so if you follow my rules you might lose some extra pip but you’re on the safe side, but if you want to make quick pip and have no patience then you don’t need to wear a seatbelt.

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  • #379
  • Feb 13, 2007 10:54pm Feb 13, 2007 10:54pm
Quoting forexpert310
My method is like driving a car with a seatbelt on, my MACD and close of the candle rule plays seatbelt’s role, some people drive without a seatbelt, they “could” get into an accident and get hurt or they can survive, so if you follow my rules you might lose some extra pip but you’re on the safe side, but if you want to make quick pip and have no patience then you don’t need to wear a seatbelt.
good explanation.so just follow the rule and be discipline
  • #380
  • Feb 13, 2007 11:07pm Feb 13, 2007 11:07pm

Quoting forexpert310
My method is like driving a car with a seatbelt on, my MACD and close of the candle rule plays seatbelt’s role, some people drive without a seatbelt, they “could” get into an accident and get hurt or they can survive, so if you follow my rules you might lose some extra pip but you’re on the safe side, but if you want to make quick pip and have no patience then you don’t need to wear a seatbelt.

Quoting forexpert310


so wait till ma confirm a cross n open trade on the open candle...hope this rite..but the real problem is my broker put 10 pips spread on big news day...its turn me into monkey when after 4 hours open ten lots without seeing +ve pips...my strategy is to win 10 pips in one trade n i need to win 50 pips per day...is this method gonna produce 5 signal per day??
"Analysis Is Hard But Trade Is Easy"
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