james16 Chart Thread

Quoting jarroo

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What does Price tell you when PBs fail? Price is going the other way. imo.

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Quoting Mr Smith

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Just posting my feed, fxpro, I am highly successful with daily pinbars, so I don't have a problem with the few losses I have, this pinbar on euro, broke by over 15 pips, from everything james has posted, I believe this is a solid pinbar off a good area, it's a pinbar I will take everytime, and most times I clean up with them, so I'm not worried at all that it failed, just wanted to post this after reading all the posts, and james post on the euro daily chart.

Mr Smith

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Quoting NuckingFuts

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I find it amusing that the fundies have all aligned with price action (Euro/UK recession concerns, Aussie/Kiwi rate drop). PA did however show the way first.

Seeking should be happy with this one

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Quoting SeekingLight

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I could actually be nice to the fundies and say they've been saying GBPUSD is going down a few hundred pips before it rose up first already I think they've been saying it for the last 12+ months or something(makes it easier to be right eventually if you just stick to one story ad nauseam).
I've also read about how the eurozone can't escape all of this and is going to get hit as well, yadda yadda, but what good is all that BS if they say it for 5 months and there are 50 million chart points at which there's a trade the other way first in the meantime. You need a trade, not an opinion as a trader.
Or similarly, I've first read that Australia is THE shnizzletizzle for ages and that trading it up to 1.0 is going to be this years supertrade and "gift" to traders, and here we are with the biggest linear pip destruction on this child of stars.

Bottom line is - no matter how "right" or "wrong" the fundies are, bottom line is they are useless for a CONCRETE, TRADEABLE trade entry, exit.
Only the chart can supply us with trades because our brokers only accept the prices that move on there, not in the headlines and texts of the fundies.

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I also wanted to add a few words about the failed PB discussion. I actually brought this up over at J16 as well since some people felt this was a perfectly fine trade whereas I myself skipped it.

This is my personal conclusion I came to:
Regardless what you did, whether you took or you skipped it, everyone needs to realize this: as long as you have a set of rules that have proven(this is why everyone keeps and keeps on banging on about demo) to give you a net profit and you have done everything to follow them, ANYTHING ELSE IS IRRELEVANT.

It is utterly futile trying to eliminate losses. It is usually just as pointless trying to figure out why or not something failed THIS time, IF you have been sure to take everything into account you always do. Sure there are things one overlooks and we're all human, but we have to cut ourselves some slack at some point, too.
Sometimes things just do not pan out, that's what you profit buffer is for and why we don't risk 100% on every trade.

Trying to eliminate losses from trading is like trying to eliminate the ball from soccer

I can understand the need to learn and discuss the times when there are obvious things one missed in order to know in the future, but there arethose times when even if you do everything right things blow out. It's just how it goes. There is no ultimate filter(except for not trading at all, 100% loss filter, only problem being it also eliminates 100% wins, too) and there is no lossless trading. We can control risk and try to do so with our emotions, but control the market itself we cannot.

My opinion. This comes from my approach to trading, others have a COMPLETELY different attitude and approach towards this altogether, and that's fine, too.

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Quoting SimonK

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A little exercise for you all if you are reading this at the start of the London session:

Its quite easy to look back with 20/20 vision and come to a conclusion as to what happened with the euro, ie. not a real pin, brokers timezone, didnt line up exactly with PPZ, trendline, etc, etc.

So, here's the aussie pin on my chart. Looks like a pinbar to me. The broker closes at 5pm NY time which I believe is the standard. The blue line indicates a pivot zone.

Anyone like to make a call as to whether this is good or bad pin before the event, i.e. before we get stopped or turn around and make profit?

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Quoting Mr Smith

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Just posting my feed, fxpro, I am highly successful with daily pinbars, so I don't have a problem with the few losses I have, this pinbar on euro, broke by over 15 pips, from everything james has posted, I believe this is a solid pinbar off a good area, it's a pinbar I will take everytime, and most times I clean up with them, so I'm not worried at all that it failed, just wanted to post this after reading all the posts, and james post on the euro daily chart.

Mr Smith

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Quoting Forex007

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Would that mean that once a PB has been formed, one cat set up a stop order at 15 pips above the PB's high?

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Quoting SeekingLight

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as long as you have a set of rules that have proven(this is why everyone keeps and keeps on banging on about demo) to give you a net profit and you have done everything to follow them, ANYTHING ELSE IS IRRELEVANT.

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Quoting toyboy tramp

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I'm going to open a bar in Notting Hill called Pin

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Quoting fxprocessor

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Hey there Seeking


How do you prove a discretionary trading system works?

cheers

fxp

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Quoting SimonK

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Good comments from everyone here.

One thing I would say, when a trade fails, I like to go back and analyse it.
I like to analyse my failed trades to try and not make the same mistake again. However on this euro pin, I cannot see any mistake according to Jim's teachings. So I have to put this down to a failed trade and I know we should expect some of these.

I've been studying forex for 3 years, but only decided to exclusively trade daily pins 2 weeks ago. I have to admit, to have a failure so soon has put a dent in my confidence.

I'm going to spend today going over the charts and prove to myself that statistically, this method does work.

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Quoting sertio

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simon, but the trade still did not fail (you are talking about the AUDUSD right?). the PB will only fail if it reaches 0.8570, now it is a hudred pips away from that

look, the way i do it is that i wait for a retrace to avoid large drawdonws, if it never retraces then so be it. also try limiting your position if you are uncomfortable with large drawdowns

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Quote

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Hi guys,

Just started playing around (well, working hard ) with ForexTester (if you do decide to buy it, you can get Pro version at a discount via Rob Booker's blog at www.robbooker.com/free - and then search for it) - a great () tool for discretionary back testing. You can playback the market tick by tick, place your live orders on the screen etc etc.

It seems to be an ideal way to test and/or improve one's skills in PA. Highly recommended!

P.S. I still cannot figure out how to close part of the position, so have to resort to opening several identical ones and closing some when needed.