Shackles's Journal

Got interested in stocks since 14. Moved on to options at 16. Abandoned both for futures during summer after turning 17. Then futures had to go after I lost my accounts last year. Now here I am, forex. Hopefully, I will do better this time having learned from my past failures after both of my futures accounts blew up on me (lost 80% on the first account and then 55% on other). These future posts are signs of discipline I hope to gain from myself and from everyone else who is willing to help.

Basic strategy:
Entry: breakout or bounce
Exit: breakout or bounce
Position risk: .5% per 1-ATR

Method: elliot wave, fibonacci, gann, technicals and....fundamentals

Will try my post my trades lives from here on out. As this thread was created days after my intial trades, I can only hope you take my word on the dates based upon the price from which I entered.

Aug 8 2008
Short GBP/USD@ 1.9204
Short EUR/JPY@ 165.32
Short GBP/JPY@ 210.80
Short AUD/JPY@ 97.83

Aug 12

Short GBP/CHF@ 2.0614
Short USD/JPY@ 109.19

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Aug 14 2008
Short EUR/USD@ 1.4879


This pair has consolidated these past couple of days. Though not a retracement, this action signifies enough indecision to be significant. I am betting on a breakout below major support following the GDP news release today.

what's the suggested target coz iam in the trade since 1.4913 the opening of the middle bolinger at i h chart . should i run away with the profit orrr orrrr ..........

I was late entering the trend due to issues with my broker. As the trend is down, I add more to my position upon the consolidation. Prices if seen in the short run, 4 HR, have begun a triangle formation. Based upon technicals, expect resistance at 1.4945 before a resumption of the downtrend following a break in support at 1.4890.


Hope this answers your question.

Requin

Expecting retracements in the following pairs.

GBP/CHF: 2.0469-2.0530
EUR/JPY: 165.33-166.12
AUD/JPY: 98.72-99.80
AUD/USD: .9111-9237

Aug 14 2008
Short EUR/GBP@ .7953.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Betting on a bounce from channel. Also, it would appear euro has more room to depreciate more so than the sterling till date.

Breakout was confirmed as prices crossed 1.4890 and never looked out. Elliot wave suggests trend is leading to wave 4 of existing 5 wave cycle if not wave 1 of a new 5 wave cycle. Long term outlook, 1.39. Near term support at 1.4730 (TL). Long term support at 1.4260. Possible retracement back to 1.54 (Not sure how though as oil prices continue to decline).

Entered following breakout of 200 MA. Before the decline, I had believed that prices would decline as gains are slowing due to the linear shape of the trend that was beginning to curve and also because MACD was pointing towards a crossover. I was betting on a parabolic shift downward. Guess I came close enough.

As prices have crossed the 50.0% Fibonacci support and are about to approach 38.2 Fibonacci support, suspicions of a correction have been erased. This is a downtrend and not just another wave 2 or wave 4 based upon elliot wave. ABC was also a possibility, however, I have never seen prices decline so low before retracing following a uptrend leading to a downtrend.

Target 90.

Shorted USD/CHF@ 1.0929. Expecting coming abc correction.

Reshorted USD/JPY@ 110.03 after being stopped out before at 110.55. Still anticipating wave 4.

Shorted more of GBP/CHF@ 2.0495. Prices have re-entered symmetric triangle but I am still anticipating a bounce.

Closed out at 2.0533. Loss twenty-some pips but was probably overleveraged anyway. Thought I would only be risking 1-atr (100 pips) if I had a 100 pip cushion from intial position. However, I realized that cushion would disappear and I would already be in the negative if there ever was a 100 retracement.

It's hard to explain ideas as they have to be individually interpreted by others before they can be understood. Likewise, what something means to me, may not mean the same to you.

By risking only .5% per 100 pips, I realized that the dilemma I created. True, I wouldn't carry a major drawdown, however, the magnitude of pips I would need to earn would have to be enormous in order to justify significant returns upon investment. 20% returns (ttm) would mean I would have to gain 4000 pips. This is no small number and so I may have to reconsider my risk per trade.

Sold another lot of GBP/JPY@ 204.45. Expecting break at 50.0% support.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Shorted USD/CHF@ 1.0954. Still believe franc has more room to go before rising from falling wedge. Expecting prices to hover in the 1.0830's.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Also sold more of GBP/CHF. Ascending triangle is still in place. Sold more to add to breakout.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Closed out all my positions. At about 2000 pips, it caused me pain to see my balance just up 10 percent. The lack of risk per position, I realized, was beginning to weigh down on my return on investment.

Re-entered three positions with 1% risk per 100 pips each.

Sold USD/JPY@ 109.85 GBP/CHF@ 2.0388 and GBP/JPY@ 204.76.

All other usd pairs will have to consolidate before I take a position in them.

Sold EUR/JPY yesterday at 161.78. Betting on breakout downward following 200 MA crossover.

Shorted another lot of GBP/JPY@ 202.65. Was betting on breakout that would have led to continuation of downtrend. Did not anticipate a retracement and was stopped out at 203.80.

Still believe prices will fall to 170 and will trade based upon that belief. Will not long this pair ever as long as the trend is down.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Sold another lot of GBP/JPY at 203.49. Still anticipating breakout from support but could be wrong due to potential double bottom.