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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #12,601
  • Aug 14, 2008 6:58pm Aug 14, 2008 6:58pm
Quoting Forex007
Isn't that a failed DBHLC?..
Do you mean the two bars in the yellow circle?

That isn't a DBHLC.

The close of the second bar has to be convincingly BELOW the whole range of the first candle.

If that's not the two you mean you may have to point them out.
Attached Image
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #12,602
  • Aug 14, 2008 7:04pm Aug 14, 2008 7:04pm
Quoting bundyraider
Check back the past couple of pages. We discussed reasons to doubt the viability. Should give you some insight.
Well, the feeling was the discussion started as the PBs started to fail. After PBs just formed the mood was somewhat different...
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #12,603
  • Aug 14, 2008 7:04pm Aug 14, 2008 7:04pm
Quoting gagiul
yeah but normally a previous resistance should become support
which is just another way of understanding why this pin failed, if those 3 resistance levels became support at this level ... price tested support and it didn't hold up; so, .......... support became resistance again ... and trading the break of the pin was trading right into a wall of resistance ...
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #12,604
  • Aug 14, 2008 7:05pm Aug 14, 2008 7:05pm
Quoting bundyraider
Do you mean the two bars in the yellow circle?

That isn't a DBHLC.

The close of the second bar has to be convincingly BELOW the whole range of the first candle.

If that's not the two you mean you may have to point them out.
They are the ones. Thank you for the explanation, Bundy!
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #12,605
  • Aug 14, 2008 7:16pm Aug 14, 2008 7:16pm
Quoting bundyraider
I'm guessing that we are looking for a trendline.

1.4347 is a level that's going to put up a hell of a fight.

Let's not rule out a major trend reversal either. We can't go assuming.
how's this for brilliant ... i saw this recent "pin" and decided amongst other things i could find no trendline until .... 4400-ish ... where price had a good level of support to drive price up ... so ....

i traded it anyway ... ... i'm now looking at it the same as you; i.e., long or short from 4400
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #12,606
  • Aug 14, 2008 7:19pm Aug 14, 2008 7:19pm
Quoting fxgrinder
which is just another way of understanding why this pin failed, if those 3 resistance levels became support at this level ... price tested support and it didn't hold up; so, .......... support became resistance again ... and trading the break of the pin was trading right into a wall of resistance ...
Yes, you are right on there.

See my chart zoomed below, you'll see the EU PB was actually entirely below the support line and failed to close back above it in the next few sessions. The price is now moving away from it.

So yes, it is now resistance
Attached Image
  • #12,607
  • Aug 14, 2008 7:22pm Aug 14, 2008 7:22pm
Quoting Forex007
Well, the feeling was the discussion started as the PBs started to fail. After PBs just formed the mood was somewhat different...
I think you'll find that was a different group of posters earlier. lol

I'll admit I was watching the chart, but eventually you wake up to those times when you're umm-ing and aaaahh-ring and just sit on your hands as far as committing goes.

(I did have some fun between PPZs on a naughty time frame though. )
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #12,608
  • Aug 14, 2008 7:24pm Aug 14, 2008 7:24pm
I think this discussion about failed pins is futile. Even though for some a pin might be good enough to take, there will always be someone saying well the nose is not so long, or my PPZ was above that pin so I didnt take it. Which comes to show again that PA is more art than science.

IMO, the main reason for the failure of all the USD pairs pins is this crazy dollar buying, which scares me actually coz you never know where it will finish. In a normal market, I think those pins would have worked great. Its not normal, again IMO, that there is no retracement in the euro fall for 1200 pips and the price just shoots through 2 important support levels. Its scary.

I think we just have to get used to the fact that pins fail, its normal, nothing works 100%. Therefore careful with the MM.

Just my 2 pins.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #12,609
  • Aug 14, 2008 7:30pm Aug 14, 2008 7:30pm
Quoting gagiul
I think this discussion about failed pins is futile. Even though for some a pin might be good enough to take, there will always be someone saying well the nose is not so long, or my PPZ was above that pin so I didnt take it. Which comes to show again that PA is more art than science.

IMO, the main reason for the failure of all the USD pairs pins is this crazy dollar buying, which scares me actually coz you never know where it will finish. In a normal market, I think those pins would have worked great. Its not normal, again IMO, that there is no retracement in the euro fall for 1200 pips and the price just shoots through 2 important support levels. Its scary.

I think we just have to get used to the fact that pins fail, its normal, nothing works 100%. Therefore careful with the MM.

Just my 2 pins.
Well said.


The only bit I disagree on is , being pickier DOES make the difference. There are a mixture of opinions here. Some of them very valid. Trading a pin into a brick wall never helps, for example. Neither does trading a neutral bar as a pin.
.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #12,610
  • Aug 14, 2008 7:47pm Aug 14, 2008 7:47pm
Anyone noticing the action in silver tonight? Bearish outside bar formed on the daily and it's in full crash mode. Anyone out there using FXPro PM me. I got to get set up to trade gold, silver, and the minis with price action. Jim, what you have taught us all is golden!
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #12,611
  • Aug 14, 2008 8:12pm Aug 14, 2008 8:12pm
Quoting gagiul
IMO, the main reason for the failure of all the USD pairs pins is this crazy dollar buying, which scares me actually coz you never know where it will finish. In a normal market, I think those pins would have worked great. Its not normal, again IMO, that there is no retracement in the euro fall for 1200 pips and the price just shoots through 2 important support levels. Its scary.
The EU double top on the monthly and the clear H&S pattern on cable's weekly chart forewarned this was going to happen.

The Aussie on the other hand gave little sign except the PB's on the weekly and monthly. Goes to show how strong a signal they are on the higher time frames.

I find it amusing that the fundies have all aligned with price action (Euro/UK recession concerns, Aussie/Kiwi rate drop). PA did however show the way first.

Seeking should be happy with this one
  • #12,612
  • Aug 14, 2008 8:36pm Aug 14, 2008 8:36pm
Quoting NuckingFuts
The EU double top on the monthly and the clear H&S pattern on cable's weekly chart forewarned this was going to happen.

The Aussie on the other hand gave little sign except the PB's on the weekly and monthly. Goes to show how strong a signal they are on the higher time frames.

I find it amusing that the fundies have all aligned with price action (Euro/UK recession concerns, Aussie/Kiwi rate drop). PA did however show the way first.

Seeking should be happy with this one
great points here, thanx. Well, I am still learning
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #12,613
  • Aug 14, 2008 10:17pm Aug 14, 2008 10:17pm
Quoting pipsja
I hear you loud and clear but can someone please tell me why in your opinion this EU pinbar failed? It's at confluence with 161.8 fib and at a PPZ.Maybe it's just one of those trades or maybe I'm missing something like a longer tail needed or something else.
Pipsja, this post is not specifically for you, but for all of us. I think what is more important is that, bottom line, you never know when a pin is going to fail. We can come up with all kinds of reasons we "think" it failed. Not long enough, too much momentum against, blah blah. No one knows, period. Pins are not the holy grail where we just have to find one that is perfect in formation, and then boom, 100% money in the bank. Anyone can look at the charts and find plenty of sub par pins, indecision bars, or even nothing, at solid historical ppz and find price reacted "as expected". I did not trade this pin, because like many have said the tail wasn't long enough. But, what would we have done if price turned around and never turned back? Great entry, pat pat on back. PA combined with ppz and a solid money managment plan are key.
  • #12,614
  • Aug 14, 2008 11:48pm Aug 14, 2008 11:48pm
Any thoughts on this Audusd Pinbar? I know the nose isn't as long as you would like, but seems like it is into a 38.2 and .236 fib retracement on this move down. It tried to break 8800 but failed which was support late last year early this year. In addition, it is sitting next to a pretty strong doji (IB) formation which should signal a continuation of the current downside direction.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud pinbar 8-14 daily chart.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #12,615
  • Aug 15, 2008 12:33am Aug 15, 2008 12:33am
i mentioned two trades i took yesterday, on AU and Nu, the Pin bars failing brought me some losses on each of these trades. and at the moment i am somewhat mixed with my emotions. Had i listened to my trading rules and ideologies i may well have avoided these losses, a few posts ago i mentioned that i don't like trades against strong momentum, the trades on Au and Nu were both against the bearish momentum but i took the trade considering the nice shape of the Pin bars, i have been made to except losses but i am proud of my trading ideas,

it all comes down to the fact that we do sometimes get carried away, i have just abt eliminated this problem but on this occasion i want sombody to kick my butt!

DANG!!! OuCH!!! err, thanks whoever it was...

anyways i like making mistakes if i can learn from them, bruises excepted, mind cleared, ready to rock n roll with my loyal trading strategies...

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #12,616
  • Aug 15, 2008 12:39am Aug 15, 2008 12:39am
Quoting HipsterPipster
Pipsja, this post is not specifically for you, but for all of us. I think what is more important is that, bottom line, you never know when a pin is going to fail. We can come up with all kinds of reasons we "think" it failed. Not long enough, too much momentum against, blah blah. No one knows, period. Pins are not the holy grail where we just have to find one that is perfect in formation, and then boom, 100% money in the bank. Anyone can look at the charts and find plenty of sub par pins, indecision bars, or even nothing, at solid historical ppz and find price reacted "as expected". I did not trade this pin, because like many have said the tail wasn't long enough. But, what would we have done if price turned around and never turned back? Great entry, pat pat on back. PA combined with ppz and a solid money managment plan are key.
Nicely said HP...
I believe . . .
  • #12,617
  • Aug 15, 2008 12:40am Aug 15, 2008 12:40am
Quoting Forex007
Hi guys,

I did see some people discussing (somewhat in a hindsight) failed PBs, citing confluence, PPZ etc.

All that was (somewhat) clear AFTER the event. But did anyone know these two (see the enclosed charts) PBs would fail BEFORE they did? If you knew, what were the reasons?

I believe quite a few people where long on AUD-USD...

Many thanks!
Forex007

I know your post has been well answered by Bundy but I'd like to add the following observations:

1. The PBs on your charts have not yet failed by my crierion - neither the Aussie nor EuroYen have breached the low of the PBs and so any trade taken should still be alive imo. Stops still in tact.

2. I use IBFXs MT4 for forex charting (midnight GMT open) and I've got dojis on both pair for the 13th - not PBs as your charts print. Charts below.

3. Many traders got excited watching those two and other pairs involving the Aussie and Yen during the 13th. As the daily bars were forming it appeared that PBs were in the making, however they all formed Doji's if your data has a 00:00 GMT open/close (although you could argue that DollarYen was close to a PB.) That may be another reason why some got excited and may have jumped the gun before confirmation of the candle at its' daily close.

Not sure if that helps or makes it all more confusing somehow??!!

Regards

John
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie pbs and doji.png Size: 11 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euroyen pbs and doji.png Size: 10 KB
  • #12,618
  • Aug 15, 2008 12:54am Aug 15, 2008 12:54am
Quoting NuckingFuts
Yes, you are right on there.

See my chart zoomed below, you'll see the EU PB was actually entirely below the support line and failed to close back above it in the next few sessions. The price is now moving away from it.

So yes, it is now resistance
That's funny - looks like I have one bar "missing", compared to your chart. Never saw that much of a difference between the brokers...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd missing bar.gif Size: 16 KB
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #12,619
  • Aug 15, 2008 1:04am Aug 15, 2008 1:04am
Quoting gagiul
great points here, thanx. Well, I am still learning
I don't (quite) agree with Nucking: a PB that worked (to some degree) on D1 could have been a simple retracement on M1's bar.

There is always a TF that is not in agreement with the one we are trading on. If we waited for all TFs to align, we would never open a single position...
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #12,620
  • Aug 15, 2008 1:04am Aug 15, 2008 1:04am
Quoting TraderZer0
Not sure if that helps or makes it all more confusing somehow??!!
As far as I can tell, there does not seem to be a consensus on the best time zone to use for PA.

With 24 hours of variation (GMT-12 to GMT+12), there's going to be an array of differences from broker to broker.

I personally think it does not matter. As Hipster quotes:

"PA combined with ppz and a solid money managment plan are key."

Following these simple rules, you can still profit even if 50% or more of the set-ups fail.
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