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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #12,581
  • Aug 14, 2008 1:45pm Aug 14, 2008 1:45pm
Hi everyone,

I have a sell contract on the EURAUD off of the Pin from yesterday. I have posted a daily and weekly chart below. It appears that the weekly chart might close as a pin as well. Does anyone have any objections (hesitations) to the way this pair is moving?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud daily pin.gif Size: 8 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud weekly pin.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #12,582
  • Aug 14, 2008 2:42pm Aug 14, 2008 2:42pm
Quoting Crown
Hi everyone,

I have a sell contract on the EURAUD off of the Pin from yesterday. I have posted a daily and weekly chart below. It appears that the weekly chart might close as a pin as well. Does anyone have any objections (hesitations) to the way this pair is moving?
Been bit once by EURAUD this week already. I had a failed BEOB on 8/8 which I thought was a pin. This pair is scary!
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #12,583
  • Aug 14, 2008 4:17pm Aug 14, 2008 4:17pm
Quoting Forex007
That's exactly the point - the trend is clearly up on M1 and clearly down on D1
  • #12,584
  • Aug 14, 2008 4:30pm Aug 14, 2008 4:30pm
Quoting jarroo
I got fooled a bit too, my friend. The 4 hour IB that broke to the upside was my signal to exit my position not to enter long. I did a late re-entry short on a small position when Price broke the bottom of the IB.

When Price is trending strong its not a bad decision to take Bullish PA in an uptrend and Bearish PA in a down trend.

If the chart didn't say "4H" in the upper left corner, I'd swear it was textbook DIBS trade on the hourly with an add-on.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=12494

Hi dear jarroo,

trading against the trend of higher timeframes even with a good setup
on a lower timeframe is a risk I learned by this. Sometimes it is worth
a few pips, if i got a good entry point. But it can fail, so the good
god gave us SL. :-)

I`am very happy that I found this thread and this very easy method,
because since then, I made constantly ~ 100 $ a day
with proper MM and a small 10K account. IŽll have a look to the dips-thread, there might be something to learn :-)

And most of the time there is no trading (which is the hardest
part for me, but it pays out). So reading and learning is good.

Yen crosses and usd is clear for me now, lets see next 24 hours,
what happens.

Have a nice day and a lot of green pips.
  • #12,585
  • Aug 14, 2008 4:41pm Aug 14, 2008 4:41pm
Quoting Betard
I think the point with all these trades is to base the trend on the timeframe you are looking to trade. YES the monthly trend is up for AUS, EUR, etc. but the PA you are looking at is from the daily charts (where trend is down at the moment!). You guys are all trading the retraces right now, who knows how long or even if they'll last?
I can't seem to recall Jim saying anything about not taking a pinbar against the trend. Pinbars by their nature gives a signal to go again a trend. If you are suggesting taking only pinbars on retracement that gives a signal to go with the larger trend then i see you point but I would think that's a matter of trading styles.

Now I don't say you are wrong because I have taken some pinbars going against the trend that end up failing miserable so I am going to do some more research and see if it makes sense ignoring those and sticking to pinbars going with the trend especially if the trend is strong like the current EU one.
  • #12,586
  • Aug 14, 2008 5:22pm Aug 14, 2008 5:22pm
Quoting pipsja
I can't seem to recall Jim saying anything about not taking a pinbar against the trend. Pinbars by their nature gives a signal to go again a trend. If you are suggesting taking only pinbars on retracement that gives a signal to go with the larger trend then i see you point but I would think that's a matter of trading styles.

Now I don't say you are wrong because I have taken some pinbars going against the trend that end up failing miserable so I am going to do some more research and see if it makes sense ignoring those and sticking to pinbars going with the trend especially if the trend is strong like the current EU one.
Don't worry pipsja.

You'd miss a lot of great pin trades filtering out those against the trend.
It's a lot more about taking really good pins in really good places.
Sometimes those places happen to be at Swing Lows that turn out to be trend reversal points.

Take an awesome pin where there's overwhelming confluence and you won't see Jim arguing about trend. ...I know that much!

Do the research anyway though. It's always a good thing!
.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #12,587
  • Aug 14, 2008 5:46pm Aug 14, 2008 5:46pm
Quoting bundyraider
Don't worry pipsja.

You'd miss a lot of great pin trades filtering out those against the trend.
It's a lot more about taking really good pins in really good places.
Sometimes those places happen to be at Swing Lows that turn out to be trend reversal points.

.
I hear you loud and clear but can someone please tell me why in your opinion this EU pinbar failed? It's at confluence with 161.8 fib and at a PPZ.Maybe it's just one of those trades or maybe I'm missing something like a longer tail needed or something else.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 61 KB
  • #12,588
  • Aug 14, 2008 5:53pm Aug 14, 2008 5:53pm
Quoting pipsja
I hear you loud and clear but can someone please tell me why in your opinion this EU pinbar failed? It's at confluence with 161.8 fib and at a PPZ.Maybe it's just one of those trades or maybe I'm missing something like a longer tail needed or something else.

The body of the Pin should have been at the extreme. On that pin the body was too close to the middle. The body should be in the lower/upper 3rd of the candle
  • #12,589
  • Aug 14, 2008 5:58pm Aug 14, 2008 5:58pm
Quoting pipsja
I hear you loud and clear but can someone please tell me why in your opinion this EU pinbar failed? It's at confluence with 161.8 fib and at a PPZ.Maybe it's just one of those trades or maybe I'm missing something like a longer tail needed or something else.
Hi pipsja,

I generally prefer the close of the pin bar to be above the PPZ for a potential long and below for a potential short.

The EU pin closed below the PPZ and found it very hard to break back above and close there.

This is not one of Jim's rules, but I do take note of this when trading pins and either wait for a close back above/below before considering the trade or just ignore it

Some consider a close above resistance or below support a breakout, so I think more confirmation is needed in these cases (i.e. a close back below resistance or above support).
  • #12,590
  • Aug 14, 2008 6:00pm Aug 14, 2008 6:00pm
Quoting ljr
The body of the Pin should have been at the extreme. On that pin the body was too close to the middle. The body should be in the lower/upper 3rd of the candle
And yes, one of my feeds the bar looked a bit suspect. Another feed however it looked plausible.

I still think the position of the close is important (above/below PPZ).
  • #12,591
  • Aug 14, 2008 6:03pm Aug 14, 2008 6:03pm
Quoting NuckingFuts
And yes, one of my feeds the bar looked a bit suspect. Another feed however it looked plausible.

I still think the position of the close is important (above/below PPZ).
Yes agree. You want to see the nose touch the S/R but not go through it so far
  • #12,592
  • Aug 14, 2008 6:10pm Aug 14, 2008 6:10pm
Quoting NuckingFuts
"
I generally prefer the close of the pin bar to be above the PPZ for a potential long and below for a potential short.
"
That's pretty much the line of thinking I take too.

Pipsja,

If there was a good reason to go long / reverse on the daily charts you'd see us posting charts too. A lot of yesterdays charts looked undecided.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #12,593
  • Aug 14, 2008 6:14pm Aug 14, 2008 6:14pm
Quoting ljr
Yes agree. You want to see the nose touch the S/R but not go through it so far
The nose can protrude. (Nice when it doesn't)

It's just generally a good sign (in the case of a pin) to see the open and close on the favourable side of your PPZ (or trendlines etc). I find it a questionable signal whenever it is on the wrong side. (for me anyway)
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #12,594
  • Aug 14, 2008 6:16pm Aug 14, 2008 6:16pm
Quoting pipsja
I hear you loud and clear but can someone please tell me why in your opinion this EU pinbar failed? It's at confluence with 161.8 fib and at a PPZ.Maybe it's just one of those trades or maybe I'm missing something like a longer tail needed or something else.
additionally, the "ppz" wasn't all that convincing ... when looking at nov07, jan08, and feb08 ... everytime price got to that same level it went south not north ...
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #12,595
  • Aug 14, 2008 6:33pm Aug 14, 2008 6:33pm
Quoting fxgrinder
additionally, the "ppz" wasn't all that convincing ... when looking at nov07, jan08, and feb08 ... everytime price got to that same level it went south not north ...
yeah but normally a previous resistance should become support anyway, I also think the Eur/Usd PB didnt work because the Fed keeps intervening in the market. the euro dropped below the PB low in the late NY hours. The euro is oversold, this PB would have been a great opportunity for a retracement to 5300.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #12,596
  • Aug 14, 2008 6:38pm Aug 14, 2008 6:38pm
Hi guys,

I did see some people discussing (somewhat in a hindsight) failed PBs, citing confluence, PPZ etc.

All that was (somewhat) clear AFTER the event. But did anyone know these two (see the enclosed charts) PBs would fail BEFORE they did? If you knew, what were the reasons?

I believe quite a few people where long on AUD-USD...

Many thanks!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud-usd failed pb.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-jpy failed pb.gif Size: 19 KB
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #12,597
  • Aug 14, 2008 6:39pm Aug 14, 2008 6:39pm
Quoting fxgrinder
additionally, the "ppz" wasn't all that convincing ... when looking at nov07, jan08, and feb08 ... everytime price got to that same level it went south not north ...
I'm guessing that we are looking for a trendline.

1.4347 is a level that's going to put up a hell of a fight.

Let's not rule out a major trend reversal either. We can't go assuming.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu wkly.gif Size: 24 KB
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #12,598
  • Aug 14, 2008 6:43pm Aug 14, 2008 6:43pm
Isn't that a failed DBHLC?..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd-chf - failed dbhlc.gif Size: 17 KB
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #12,599
  • Aug 14, 2008 6:46pm Aug 14, 2008 6:46pm
I guess the size of the PB in relation to the size of the move leading to it bears noting, i.e a big move needs a big PB to reverse/stop it.

Of all the recently formed PBs, I have traded the Kiwi and Eur/Aud, as weekly PBs support the daily in both pairs. I have small positions (scouts) open on these two as they've yet to confirm/fail.

The large down moves have dissipated across all pairs, suggesting the dollar rally is over for now, the dollar index would seem to support this. However I expect dollar strength to continue as we go to election.
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #12,600
  • Aug 14, 2008 6:50pm Aug 14, 2008 6:50pm
Quoting Forex007
But did anyone know these two (see the enclosed charts) PBs would fail BEFORE they did? If you knew, what were the reasons?
Check back the past couple of pages. We discussed reasons to doubt the viability. Should give you some insight.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
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