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The Pouria Method

  • #341
  • Feb 13, 2007 11:35am Feb 13, 2007 11:35am
Quoting Spudfyre
Simple Pouria

1. Put the 5 MA and 75/85 MA's on your chart just like Pouria
2. No MAcD required
3. Time frame 30 mins
4. Stop Loss 30 pips
5. Target Profit 20 pips

To go long:
5 MA line crosses down both 75/85 MA and that this cross is confirmed by the close of the current candle. You open at the opening of the next candle. (You can see the 5 MA line across the 75/85 MA and the candle is closed....no fudging).

To go short:
5 MA crosses up both 75/85 MA and that this cross is confirmed by the close of the current candle. You open at the opening of the next candle.
Do you mean this....?? Go short when the 5ma crosses UP? Go long when the 5ma crosses down? Looks backwards to me. Thanks for any clarification.
Don Life is expensive, but includes a free trip around the sun.
  • #342
  • Feb 13, 2007 12:02pm Feb 13, 2007 12:02pm
Quoting traderone
Do you mean this....?? Go short when the 5ma crosses UP? Go long when the 5ma crosses down? Looks backwards to me. Thanks for any clarification.
My bad. I have corrected it. Thanks for your eagle eyes!!
  • #343
  • Feb 13, 2007 12:24pm Feb 13, 2007 12:24pm
I like the simple pouria rules, and yes...from my manual backtesting it seems that the EUR/USD is the one that has a high success rate.

I think it would be beneficial for all of us to create a list of excellent currencies to trade with this system, currencies that you need to watch the trade for and maybe exit quickly with a few pips, and currencies that would be difficult to trade either due to spread or high volatility/required stoploss.

Foexexpert if you could shed light on this issue it would be appreciated. I know you trade all of the pairs, but I'm certain some have a higher success rate than others.

As for the simple pouria rules, and the normal pouria system. I believe one needs to backtest it at least a year to determine win percentage.
  • #344
  • Feb 13, 2007 1:00pm Feb 13, 2007 1:00pm
Are any of you using Oanda? If so, what MAs are you using for the 75/85? I cannot see how to adjust from using the close price to the low price.
  • #345
  • Feb 13, 2007 1:27pm Feb 13, 2007 1:27pm
Quoting Masterblue
As for the simple pouria rules, and the normal pouria system. I believe one needs to backtest it at least a year to determine win percentage.
Yes I agree. I was hoping someone could develop an EA for Simple Pouria to make the backtest more thorough. I thought the numbers were encouraging for EURUSD and wanted to share them with everyone in hopes of a thorough back and forward test.
  • #346
  • Feb 13, 2007 1:41pm Feb 13, 2007 1:41pm
Anybody see a possible G/U trade in the next hour? Seems like the last 2 bounces off the long (85 & 75) MAs have made higher lows. Chart:

http://img162.imageshack.us/img162/7516/11613394fs1.gif
  • #347
  • Feb 13, 2007 2:30pm Feb 13, 2007 2:30pm
I did quick and dirty tests on the EURGBP and EURJPY using Simple Pouria and had excellent results.

EURGBP (H1) I lowered the TP to 15 pips but kept the SL at 30 pips.
EURJPY (M30) I kept the TP at 20 pips and SL at 30 pips.

I back tested to Jan 1 on each pair and the results were both above 90%. In both cases if the SL was not hit but the 5 MA retraced I closed the failed trade and increased the new open trade to cover my previous loss.

Again, most stops required were under 12 pips and most carry over losses were under 10 pips.

I am certain with more study there could be a much better strategy to capture the large pip gains that are missed.
  • #348
  • Feb 13, 2007 2:37pm Feb 13, 2007 2:37pm
Quoting ghamal
Anybody see a possible G/U trade in the next hour? Seems like the last 2 bounces off the long (85 & 75) MAs have made higher lows. Chart:

http://img162.imageshack.us/img162/7516/11613394fs1.gif

Yes, got my eye on that possible trade too....

Just noticed your MACD settings different to mine...I have set up as 15,26,1 as per post 1. Do you prefer this set-up?

Angie
  • #349
  • Feb 13, 2007 2:55pm Feb 13, 2007 2:55pm
Quoting angiegiles00
Yes, got my eye on that possible trade too....

Just noticed your MACD settings different to mine...I have set up as 15,26,1 as per post 1. Do you prefer this set-up?

Angie
No Angie, i missed the MACD settings on the first post - these are the default settings from MT4. I will change them since I want to demo this exactly as shown in that post. Thanks for catching that.

Looks like the candle will close above the long MAs in a couple of minutes, I will be taking the trade, 15 pip sl, 20 pip tp.
  • #350
  • Feb 13, 2007 2:59pm Feb 13, 2007 2:59pm
Quoting angiegiles00
Yes, got my eye on that possible trade too....

Just noticed your MACD settings different to mine...I have set up as 15,26,1 as per post 1. Do you prefer this set-up?

Angie
Entered at 1.9459. Almost at 15pip target
Attached Image
  • #351
  • Feb 13, 2007 3:04pm Feb 13, 2007 3:04pm
Quoting ghamal
No Angie, i missed the MACD settings on the first post - these are the default settings from MT4. I will change them since I want to demo this exactly as shown in that post. Thanks for catching that.

Looks like the candle will close above the long MAs in a couple of minutes, I will be taking the trade, 15 pip sl, 20 pip tp.

Hi ghamal

You are very welcome. Wish you luck in this trade. I have just taken this trade myself, a little early I know, but only on demo account at the moment.

Regards

Angie
  • #352
  • Feb 13, 2007 3:42pm Feb 13, 2007 3:42pm
Quoting Spudfyre
Simple Pouria

EURUSD +430 PIPS January 2007
Maximum drawdown 30 pips
95% Wins (23/24)

The current Pouria method is extremely successful. However, I like concrete numbers to work with if I am going to back test anything and don't want fudge forward trading because MA lines jiggle during an active candle. While trying to work out a non-variable way of testing Pouria I noticed that the only thing that mattered was the 5 MA crossing the 75/85 MA.

I noticed that false signals were generally whipsaws that had very low stop losses if you exited if the 5 MA retraced back across the 75/85 MA.

I also wanted a firm entry and exit point. If you look at the summary attached you will see I missed huge gains by taking a simple fixed approach. I have not worked out an optimal money management strategy for this yet but this simple method presented is statistically ultra conservative.

The Simple Pouria Rules (Only tested on EURUSD)

1. Put the 5 MA and 75/85 MA's on your chart just like Pouria
2. No MAcD required
3. Time frame 30 mins
4. Stop Loss 30 pips
5. Target Profit 20 pips

To go long:
5 MA line crosses up both 75/85 MA and that this cross is confirmed by the close of the current candle. You open at the opening of the next candle. (You can see the 5 MA line across the 75/85 MA and the candle is closed....no fudging).

To go short:
5 MA crosses down both 75/85 MA and that this cross is confirmed by the close of the current candle. You open at the opening of the next candle.

BAD TRADES:
A bad trade involves either hitting the stop loss or the 5 MA retracing and recrossing the 75/85 MA in the opposite direction.

If the 5 MA retraces you close your first position and open up a new position with 2 lots. If it retraces again close your position and open up with 3 lots, etc. In otherwords, you are in a whipsaw (without hitting yopur S/L) and you are covering your previous losses on each retrace until success comes. This assumes you can only have only all buy or all sell trades on from your broker (no hedging).
If you are more conservative, you can simply close the first position and open the next position with 1 lot, your losses will be small and not greatly affect your bottom line.

Risk Return:
Under normal circumstances I would never trade a 3:2 risk/return, however in this case the stop loss limit of 30 is an emergency stop. In most cases you will only require 12 pips or less for a stop loss. The high percentage of wins reduce exposure to risk of the 30 pip stop loss.
I had experimented with a 20 pip S/L but found the 30 provided more room for profit and provided a "trade and forget" allowance. You can easily bring this to a 1:1 risk return and still earn +200 pips.

Ultra Conservative Trading:
If you really want to keep your pip exposure low, trade only those MA crosses that are very close to the 75/85 lines. Some candles first crossing the MA lines are big and can give you a 10-15 pip exposure if the 5 MA retraces.


This would be a great EA as it is very black and white when to open and close trades. I am back testing other currencies by hand, and would appreciate any help with confirming the success of this using other currencies and longer testing periods....any one that could put together a simple EA?
January has been extremely good month for backtesting i have found, try december of 2006 see if it still comes out as good. I had 7 losses in the row for december noted down however i may be wrong but it would be nice to see what others get.
  • #353
  • Feb 13, 2007 3:50pm Feb 13, 2007 3:50pm
Quoting icpip
Entered at 1.9459. Almost at 15pip target

So far so good.....almost there!
  • #354
  • Feb 13, 2007 3:55pm Feb 13, 2007 3:55pm
on my chart the confirmation to go long just happened now at 72, because before MACD want positive :S
  • #355
  • Feb 13, 2007 3:57pm Feb 13, 2007 3:57pm
Quoting lexazver
on my chart the confirmation to go long just happened now at 72, because before MACD want positive :S
sorry i mean not now but at the start of current canndle, i went long just now at 71 with very small amount just to test it, lets see how it plays out.
  • #356
  • Edited 4:06pm Feb 13, 2007 4:03pm | Edited 4:06pm
Quoting lexazver
on my chart the confirmation to go long just happened now at 72, because before MACD want positive :S
I thought MACD just needed to be heading in the direction of the trade. The first post doesn't mention that MACD needs to be > 0 for long or < 0 for short, it just says moving "upward" for long and "downward" for short. Waiting for MACD to be positive o negative would seem to cut down the number of signals alot.

I'm long from 9469 (open of candle an hour ago). Just got charged swap so it better work out lol
  • #357
  • Feb 13, 2007 4:04pm Feb 13, 2007 4:04pm
Quoting lexazver
sorry i mean not now but at the start of current canndle, i went long just now at 71 with very small amount just to test it, lets see how it plays out.
They using the Simple method (No MACD).

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #358
  • Feb 13, 2007 4:04pm Feb 13, 2007 4:04pm
Quoting lexazver
on my chart the confirmation to go long just happened now at 72, because before MACD want positive :S

Spot on. As I am only demoing this trade I chanced an early entry...trading this live I think I would most likely wait for the MACD to confirm.

Does anyone have RSI as a confirming indicator? If so, setting at 14 or 21?

Thanks

Angie
  • #359
  • Feb 13, 2007 4:05pm Feb 13, 2007 4:05pm
Quoting ghamal
I thought MACD just needed to be heading in the direction of the trade. The first post doesn't mention that MACD needs to be > 0 for long or < 0 for short, it just says moving "upward" for long and "downward" for short. Waiting for MACD to be positive o negative would seem to cut down the number of signals alot.

Testing the Simple verison of the method. (No MACD).

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #360
  • Feb 13, 2007 4:07pm Feb 13, 2007 4:07pm
Hello,

first thanks for this great system. And at this moment just for info, i am start to write an EA this evening.

Tomorow i must/will finish another EA and go in test, and beginn then with my Pouria EA.

When all goes normal i must finish in 3-4 days.

Cheers
Mobsie
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