4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

Quoting Tw0eleven

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Hi Phil and Turk, could you post your charts on the EUR/USD so I can see this "perfect" round bottom? Below is my chart and while the the MACD started forming a "perfect" round bottom on the left side, but then price took off on me on the right side so that by the time my "signal" candle closed...most of the move was already over.

Also, could you analyze why you thought Long on this pair? When I was looking at it, I saw price close below the 89SMA so I was thinking to Short this pair. I was waiting for a retrace and test of the 89, or 21 ma's. But then I saw 4 candles go up and "test" the 89SMA but never penetrate it so I was also thinking short.

Thanks! Good system, just need more practice with it!

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Quoting Phillip Nel

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I also were looking for a short trade of the 89SMA. If you look at our round bottom you will see that if the price went above 89SMA I would have long it to the 200SMA with portion profit and the rest to trendline. The candles also forms a round bottom that indicates a long. There was not room to the 89SMA for a long but he moment it went above it the next barrier was in sight.

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Quoting endy

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Would you mind sharing your view in those trades (when (what price/time) did you enter and what was your approach) please ?
if possible also attach picture.. thanks a lot.

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Quoting DireXiv

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16:23 GMT

Are we going to see the gbp/usd test the 21 EMA again later today on another "round"? (It's below 89 EMA so we would be bucking the trend again).

Seems to be forming like it did the previous time. Thoughts?

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Quoting DireXiv

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Probably the biggest reason that I decided to go long, was that I had a very strong trend line drawn from going back month and hit mulitple times. The candles were bounding right off of it. So that combined with the round based on the rules I follow was a high probability trade (although there was not much room, the T/L was a big indicator for me)

I'll post charts later today as I said.

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Quoting Phillip Nel

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Great. Your stoploss was also smaller and you gave yourself the chance of a big move. Even if it bounced of the 89SMA you would have known and being prepared for the opposite move and could cut your loss early and went with the other wave.

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Quoting irusoh

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I also got confused by gbpusd and eurusd last night. I was expecting gbp to continue trend, so I wasn't very receptive to eur round bottom. It turned out they went their separsate ways. I guess one has to treat these two pairs separately. Good correlation exists between eurusd and usdchf which was demostrated last night one could have gone long on eur and short on chf in unison. usdjpy often signals direction for eurusd as it often goes first maybe because tokyo session starts early. It was way down eysterday long before eurusd and usdchf moved. So it seems that gbpusd is thing on itself.

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Quoting irusoh

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I find it difficult to follow MACD signals at times of good strong trend.
MACD gives clear signals against the trend which are often dangerous, and almost none against the trend. So it seems that during the trend one can enter using 5-min strategy. enter into trade at pullback between 8 and 21 mas and then enter with small s/l under 21 ma hoping that trend continues.

What would be the best technique entering into the trend?

anyway here is improved MACD (I hope). It shows 2 colors for up movement and down movement. This will allow to clearly see change in direction. It also scaled in pips. This way all currencies will have the same levels regardless of decimal point. It is preset for H4-300pips strategy 5-13-1 with levels set at 45,30,15,-15,-30,-45.

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Quoting Phillip Nel

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Gbp
Nothing prevent it from doing that. We are heading for MACD double higher low. 1.9500 Can very well be in sight after this 4 hour candle on Gbp if MACD shows long signal. All depends on the size of this candle for our stoplos to determine R:R ratio

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Quoting endy

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Philip, shouldn't we be already in ? I mean, the candle which started on 12:00 was already on MACD higher then the previous one. So in the candle which started at 16:00 (and is still running at the present) we should be already in, or am I missing something ?
Thanks.

PS: I am running on MIG demo..

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Quoting endy

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I want to point others also to this nice indicator. Well done irusoh. This makes life even easier. Thanks.

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Quoting fnmdx

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I totally agree with you Endy. For those who want to download but do not know how, you can follow the steps below (Irusoh/Endy, please correct me if I miss something):

Step 1: Before downloading, find where is the MetaTrader4 directory (created by default when first installed Trading Platform software). For example MIG platform, the directory is in C:\Program Files\MIG Trading Station.

Step 2: Go to Post #461 and double click the attached file (MACD_H$__v100.mq4). Save the file into the the default directories as follows; C:\Program Files\MIG Trading Station\experts\indicators. (As for FXDD, the default directory is FXDD-MetaTrader4).

Step 3: Open-up the trading platform. Create new chart and enter all SMA's and EMA's as per Phillip's 4 hour Strategy document (as before except MACD). Then insert the colour coded MACD, by clicking the pull-down menu INSERT=>INDICATORS=>CUSTOM=>MACD_H4_300_v100.

Step 4: Change the colour and line style as per your preference. Good luck.

Thanks Irusoh for your effort and sharing.

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Quoting Phillip Nel

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Usd - Nothing yet. I missed the deal at 8:00 GMT this morning due to working conditions.

Gbp
1. Double lower high
2. Long signal
3. First target 365EMA + 21EMA + price level 1.9490-1.9500 = +45pips
4. Stoploss below 1.9400 = +43 pips OR (To below previous candle 28 pips)
5. R:R = OK

Action:
The risk of +43 is huge. If you can handle it the signal is on.

I went long at 1.9440
I am going to risk to only the previous candle 1.9413 (28pips)
Set breakeven after 20 pips

I treat this as a high probability pullbacktrade in a downtrend


If I could get the one on the EurUsd this morning I would have skipped this one and go to bed. But let me go by the rule as it satisfy all criteria.

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Quoting Chandra

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GBP TRADE:
PERRRRFFFFFECT TRADE PLAN. I love your way of thinking.
It is counter-trend trade. Right?
-Chandra

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