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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #5,261
  • Aug 13, 2008 4:02pm Aug 13, 2008 4:02pm
Quoting Piters
fti,

this is what I am listening now.. (Chinese ER HU)

1.mp3 (Plum Story / Mr. Wei Yu)
2.mp3 (Mochou, Mochou / Mr. Wei Yu)

3.mp3 (My Way / Mr. Wei Yu)
Hi Piters,
Thanks . I peruse the music which you linked.
Good Er Hu music, very serene.

I also took the liberty to check your journal and MO. You seem to be trading professionally.
You have something , One thing I can say off hand , not having gone into detail is you are dancing the market, not so similar to me, but nevertheless you are dancing.

Your mindset is basically AOW, I don't know if you noticed by now.

I will check out your MA bands, when I have some time.
Off hand I think you are trying to determine the impulse volitility from the bands. If that is true , I would like to tell you that you don't need to do it that way. But since you have documented it , I will study it and may give you some feedback at your thread, when time permits.

I also felt that you have good foundational Tech Analysis, the con side is that you may have overdone , and may have muddied your good foundation with some predictive analysis.

Thanks again for the music, I like it.
reminds me of the violin trebre, this very new age Er Hu.

regards
  • #5,262
  • Aug 13, 2008 4:08pm Aug 13, 2008 4:08pm
Quoting auxesis
Moving averages are like that, they are a mean average, price will speed up and move away but as it slows the average catches up. Plot a 24 hr average. 96 on a 15 minute 24 on an hourly chart, and you will see price revert back to it after NY ends almost every time after the daily push. But be careful MA's can distort your view. Price will do what it wants and the MA will follow afterwards.
Seriously...MA are not good for us...but I find the way they behave very interesting...I removed all but the MA(12) from my 5M...and that one I do not use at all...sometimes I put it on and other I turn if off...

thanks for the discussion...I am done for the day...Till tomorrow..that will be another fight.

Regards,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #5,263
  • Aug 13, 2008 4:16pm Aug 13, 2008 4:16pm
Quoting auxesis
Please point me to where he does this?

It was my understanding to add skew as the move progresses into profit. There are times when the retrace might pull back farther than first though, but the context of the chart should hold. I might enter scout or position on a retrace, the retrace might continue deeper giving a chance to add more, but the last turn in the trend should hold, else i'm looking to rescue and turn on wind possible or stand aside.
See this...Very elegant...I forgat today...and I was linear so my profit were not as high...notice that his last sell trade at the top was 0.8 and his sequence: 3-2-3-5-3-5-8 then down 5-3-2...Beautifull, right?

Post # 5030
Quoting fti


23:32 -0.3 15407
23:33 -0.2 15410
23:35 -0.3 15414
00:16 -0.5 15417
00:28 -0.3 15413
00:49 -0.5 15419
01:15 -0.8 15431
01:29 -0.5 15418
01:33 -0.3 15415
01:35 -0.2 15417
03:27 +3.9 15408
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #5,264
  • Aug 13, 2008 4:16pm Aug 13, 2008 4:16pm
Quoting luSan
Seriously...MA are not good for us...but I find the way they behave very interesting...I removed all but the MA(12) from my 5M...and that one I do not use at all...sometimes I put it on and other I turn if off...

thanks for the discussion...I am done for the day...Till tomorrow..that will be another fight.

Regards,
Goodnight,

Dont fight it, and dont get frustrated, when you feel that way, turn off the monitor and go do something fun. Trading with the wrong mindset is dangerous to the pocket book.

Get some rest tomorrows battles are waiting.
  • #5,265
  • Aug 13, 2008 4:24pm Aug 13, 2008 4:24pm
Quoting luSan
See this...Very elegant...I forgat today...and I was linear so my profit were not as high...notice that his last sell trade at the top was 0.8 and his sequence: 3-2-3-5-3-5-8 then down 5-3-2...Beautifull, right?

Post # 5030
Ok Fti, it';s your time to chime in.

Lusan. just my take here, Fti's entries at that time were due to price action at that time. Not necessarily the same MO evertime. We have see him enter scout and then hammer the skew as the trade took off, and scale back out. It's all dependent on price action and what he see's . If price will give a deep retrace and a great entry then add on it, we dont get that chance all the time.

But trying to use that MO everytime would be rigid, no?
  • #5,266
  • Aug 13, 2008 4:26pm Aug 13, 2008 4:26pm
Quoting auxesis
Goodnight,

Dont fight it, and dont get frustrated, when you feel that way, turn off the monitor and go do something fun. Trading with the wrong mindset is dangerous to the pocket book.

Get some rest tomorrows battles are waiting.
I am done and going for a walk...my frustraion is not trading related but my lack of relaxation and my eagerness dealing with the news...Scorpions!!!

My solution as of now: I will get out of the house, go for a walk during the news and then trade...Still the day was not a disaster but within my allow bad perfomance...

Best wishes
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #5,267
  • Aug 13, 2008 7:23pm Aug 13, 2008 7:23pm
Euro bull waking up
  • #5,268
  • Edited 9:21pm Aug 13, 2008 8:19pm | Edited 9:21pm
how do you guys stay up and alert?

Yesterday and the day before yesterday would go into the books as one of the longest trading days of my life. I had only gotten myself at max, maybe 5hrs of sleep? for the past two days. Capped 57 trades yesterday. I'm trashed, tired and dozed off a few times while driving to work today.

The price you pay for good money? Surely sets me thinking.

I cant juggle trading and my job at the same time, one have to go and i am fearing it may be the latter. I'm standing infront of a road forked in two directions right now...am i ready for this? From the looks of it, i dont think i am, fti has addressed a few of my delinquencies and i fear that it may be the ultimate cause for my failure.

I just dont have the balls to make a decision right now. God help me, ahhh maybe im just too tired, thus the bullshit.

Gd day all!
  • #5,269
  • Aug 13, 2008 9:23pm Aug 13, 2008 9:23pm
Hi all,

not sure if this has been posted before. If it hasn't then enjoy....
Inserted Video



Just wondering....how many of us here actually experience all that was sung in the song.
  • #5,270
  • Aug 14, 2008 12:34am Aug 14, 2008 12:34am
Quoting jest1081
how do you guys stay up and alert?

Yesterday and the day before yesterday would go into the books as one of the longest trading days of my life. I had only gotten myself at max, maybe 5hrs of sleep? for the past two days. Capped 57 trades yesterday. I'm trashed, tired and dozed off a few times while driving to work today.

The price you pay for good money? Surely sets me thinking.
yes, this is how it works.. I feel you. I have slept a little more but because of 2 major mistakes (scorpions) I lost 10% of the account. So if you are trashed, tired etc and lost.. it adds up.

But I like it.. I mean, you need some bad days to appreciate the good ones.
  • #5,271
  • Aug 14, 2008 12:37am Aug 14, 2008 12:37am
Quoting maheswara
i might be wrong ... but i think
tearing away means when a currency moves in opposite direction in 2 pairs
like usd moves bull in 1 pair and bear in another and so creating a huge move in the corresponding crosses , example
gbp usd is going down (usd bull)
usd yen is going down (usd bear)
in effect the crosses gbp yen is going down at extreme rate ...
if im wrong please do correct me fti sir ...
yes, this is what I understand with "tearing apart" aswell. that is why there is higher volatility on gbp/jpy and eur/jpy than involving usd.

so break away from correlation = tearing.
  • #5,272
  • Aug 14, 2008 12:40am Aug 14, 2008 12:40am
Quoting MaMood
Good morning ALL!

Warning: I'm really euphoric.

Since friday last week I was most of time a quite reader of this thread, cos I was highly focused on dancing USDJPY. The first time in my trading life I felt the rythm of the dance. And if you really feel the lead of the lady, trading can be so easy.

THANKS to GRANDMASTER fti!!!
Congratulations and I hope it will last!
  • #5,273
  • Edited 1:58am Aug 14, 2008 12:55am | Edited 1:58am
Quoting fti
Hi piccolo,
This is wrong mindset and dangerous MO.
If your analysis is not top notch or if you experience variance in volitility,
you could wake up and not recognise the location where your are.

However of course it is relative and if your NORMAL exposure is 10 to 20 times the position, OR if you have much risk capital for variance risk, then it is your call. But in general, over time, it makes for bad MO and mindset.

regards
allright, so no more take profit levels. thank you for pointing it out.

only problem I have is the babysitting part during twinlight/paintdry zone. my positions are usually small %.

i must admit i lost 10% this week because of my scorpions. impatience got me to enter a stop buy order after eur/usd down move stalled early this week in case it does a quick retrace (contrarian, bad, pig, etc). so it did, just to get me in the trade. lesson learned. went 150 pips agains me, I managed some good rescues but was still in red and due to my broker acting up with the spikes, I had to close all my positions to be safe and lost 4%.

the next day I decided to get it back, hehe. this is totally wrong mindset, or at least for me it is. first mistake was increased size.. ended up loosing another 6% and due to size had to carry through news (big no no), which was positive for me and I exited at best spot I could even if I look in hindsight now. Anyway, I lost due to my mistakes, not market activity.. and that is bad. Got my scorpions out. Maybe they have eaten and will leave me alone for a while now.
  • #5,274
  • Aug 14, 2008 1:37am Aug 14, 2008 1:37am
Bears feel a bit more aggresive.
  • #5,275
  • Aug 14, 2008 2:02am Aug 14, 2008 2:02am
Bulls out for a run? Lets see and every one make sure to have fun
  • #5,276
  • Edited 5:30am Aug 14, 2008 4:25am | Edited 5:30am
Hi ALL,

Just got back from some errands.
So be careful , amongst we have some bears and some bulls,
makes for a whole new market here.

Beware the bulls is still dominant in the market.
The USD bull , he seems to be in the USD/Yen the crossed USD bull in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD he seems to be a function of the crosses, therefore is weak.

regards.
  • #5,277
  • Aug 14, 2008 4:42am Aug 14, 2008 4:42am
No one home tonight?
  • #5,278
  • Aug 14, 2008 6:19am Aug 14, 2008 6:19am
be aware there are few us news coming out in an hour , might create some volatility
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #5,279
  • Aug 14, 2008 8:27am Aug 14, 2008 8:27am
Unemployment and CPI figures are out, inflation figures higher than forecast. Unemployment figures worse than forecast but better than last week's.

interesting watching the currencies, both USD and JPY are strengthening against the EUR

good luck to U/J traders!
  • #5,280
  • Aug 14, 2008 8:27am Aug 14, 2008 8:27am
Quoting maheswara
be aware there are few us news coming out in an hour , might create some volatility
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

Off to do something else today.

Great day everyone.
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