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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #5,241
  • Aug 13, 2008 11:06am Aug 13, 2008 11:06am
i surely dont have the capacity for that. hehehe

Yen flies. Eur flies , Queen sings.

The crosess are at it again?
  • #5,242
  • Aug 13, 2008 11:37am Aug 13, 2008 11:37am
Must be large block buying of USD, EUR, Cable, Currency sold YEN
Its a USD/Yen arena.
  • #5,243
  • Aug 13, 2008 11:42am Aug 13, 2008 11:42am
Quoting fti
USD Bulls returns!

Careful it is USD BULLs not bears.

Note, The crosses are tearing.
Do not be deceived.
Ignoramus ignoranti...bad latin...

Since I never pay attention to the cross and still do not understand well the 3ko, I give high consideration to 1H trend...and of course sometimes I get the wrong scout out...ah...a good scout for me and the war would be easily won...

One of the most silly question, I apologize. I should have asked it a long time ago...

What is the meaning of the "crosses are tearing away"...hey...be aware that my mother tongue is not English and tearing is not clear to me...
do you mean that the E/J is returning to the equilibrium... and Euro are flowing out and moving likely into dollar or Gbp, etc.?

Everybody is using the tearing concept around here and truly it is not clear to me...I am open to learn

Again ignoramus ignoranti...very bad latin indeed.

Regards,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #5,244
  • Aug 13, 2008 12:00pm Aug 13, 2008 12:00pm
Quoting luSan
What is the meaning of the "crosses are tearing away"...hey...be aware that my mother tongue is not English and tearing is not clear to me...
do you mean that the E/J is returning to the equilibrium... and Euro are flowing out and moving likely into dollar or Gbp, etc.?
i think it meant the picking up momentum. u can see tearing when the price and the MA parts.

YEN facing a wall at 109
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  • #5,245
  • Aug 13, 2008 12:02pm Aug 13, 2008 12:02pm
Quoting jest1081
i think it meant the picking up momentum. u can see tearing when the price and the MA parts.

Wall at 109
ah...so MA(12) and PA moving away from each other..
...Now I see the 109 wall in U/J...so many things to keep in mind...

thanks...
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #5,246
  • Aug 13, 2008 12:30pm Aug 13, 2008 12:30pm
Quoting luSan
ah...so MA(12) and PA moving away from each other..
...Now I see the 109 wall in U/J...so many things to keep in mind...

thanks...
i might be wrong ... but i think
tearing away means when a currency moves in opposite direction in 2 pairs
like usd moves bull in 1 pair and bear in another and so creating a huge move in the corresponding crosses , example
gbp usd is going down (usd bull)
usd yen is going down (usd bear)
in effect the crosses gbp yen is going down at extreme rate ...
if im wrong please do correct me fti sir ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #5,247
  • Aug 13, 2008 1:19pm Aug 13, 2008 1:19pm
Hello all
Someone see the oil price
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...modity_futures


Regards
  • #5,248
  • Aug 13, 2008 1:44pm Aug 13, 2008 1:44pm
just my take on things, today's direction has a big question on it.
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  • #5,249
  • Aug 13, 2008 2:10pm Aug 13, 2008 2:10pm
Simple us is heading to bankruptcy
  • #5,250
  • Aug 13, 2008 2:17pm Aug 13, 2008 2:17pm
If I ran my business like the government runs theirs, I'd been there long ago.

Jmho, we are seeing wealth shift, median regression, into emerging nations and economies.
  • #5,251
  • Aug 13, 2008 2:23pm Aug 13, 2008 2:23pm
Quoting auxesis
If I ran my business like the government runs theirs, I'd been there long ago.

Jmho, we are seeing wealth shift, median regression, into emerging nations and economies.
Sure...if I were younger I would be studying "?" language...Some people says it should be Mandarin...but I am not sure...Putin is strong and ME Oil $ is purchasing the whole planet...soon we will have to trade the Dubai market or something like that...

Everybody is sleep...better have more coffee...waiting for this bull to wake up.

Regards

Note: I like your regression to the mean idea...by the way...you have a bearish flag there...so the bulls, right?
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #5,252
  • Edited 3:12pm Aug 13, 2008 2:57pm | Edited 3:12pm
Lusan,

The world needs more cars and TV's and HiFi Stereos and everything else money can buy, so we need more factories and more raw product and OIL to power it all........... sometimes me thinks I'd just like to have a small plot of land way out in the country and grow my own crops and raise my own animals , there are some that have taken to the simpler things in life, at times it makes one think that they may be right????

Languages? Mandarin, would be a good one. My vote...... Greek.

The Flag? We will know when it breaks....... consolidation patterns normally break in the direction they formed, diagonals normally in the opposite direction of the slant. Watch your lows in an uptrend, highs in a down trend. From your studies in Hill's "Ultimate Trading Guide", what did he say about ranges or accumulation distribution after a thrust ????

regards,

In particular pages 12 - 16

But it's best to do like Fti says just follow the flow, dont think so much.
  • #5,253
  • Aug 13, 2008 3:13pm Aug 13, 2008 3:13pm
Quoting auxesis
Lusan,

The world needs more cars and TV's and HiFi Stereos and everything else money can buy, so we need more factories and more raw product and OIL to power it all........... sometimes me thinks I'd just like to have a small plot of land way out in the country and grow my own crops and raise my own animals , there are some that have taken to the simpler things in life, at times it makes one think that they may be right????

Languages? Mandarin, would be a good one. My vote...... Greek.
>>>>yes, greek and italian too..

The Flag? We will know when it breaks....... consolidation patterns normally break in the direction they formed, diagonals normally in the opposite direction of the slant. Watch your lows in an uptrend, highs in a down trend. From your studies in Hill's "Ultimate Trading Guide", what did he say about ranges????

regards,
Hills?...I do not know anymore...I am not sure how much of that information is suitable for dance trading...I almost wish I have never read the thing...a lot of polution that does not let me be in the NOW.

look, right now 5M is forming a curve facing down...so the bull are around...that is something that I think Hill does not say...

Personally, after a full day of looking at chart and observing my own weakness and mistakes, I came one more time to the conclusion that I -maybe others- have problems identifying the right direction for the scout...

before I used succesfully MA(48), now I am looking at the 1D and 1H...and I am failing...so back to MA(48) to guide me...In other words, the inmediate trend, that is the magic key...otherwise we are gambling...

I confess I am frustrated...Still I will keep working on..I have to get the scout most of the time in the right direction for my dancing...I do not easily give up..

Do not worry...I will use small size until I really get this scout thing right...My book is still blue bu my day trading results are inconsistent...and that is not good! After all, this is my second week of fully day trading...

Now I just sold more Euro...

Regards
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #5,254
  • Aug 13, 2008 3:26pm Aug 13, 2008 3:26pm
Quoting luSan
Hills?...I do not know anymore...I am not sure how much of that information is suitable for dance trading...I almost wish I have never read the thing...a lot of polution that does not let me be in the NOW.

look, right now 5M is forming a curve facing down...so the bull are around...that is something that I think Hill does not say...

Personally, after a full day of looking at chart and observing my own weakness and mistakes, I came one more time to the conclusion that I -maybe others- have problems identifying the right direction for the scout...

before I used succesfully MA(48), now I am looking at the 1D and 1H...and I am failing...so back to MA(48) to guide me...In other words, the inmediate trend, that is the magic key...otherwise we are gambling...

I confess I am frustrated...Still I will keep working on..I have to get the scout most of the time in the right direction for my dancing...I do not easily give up..

Now I just sold more Euro...

Regards
This is just my take, hopefully Fti will chime in.

You have two different trends going on daily trend (hourly turn points shown) Now trend (5 minute turn points shown) ...... In an up trend the lows will be higher, down trend highs lower.

If in an up trend, price makes a new high, as long as it dosent break the immediate low it just came from it's still in an up trend, the low should hold on the following south retrace and then it should make a new high, right

back wards in down trend.

When now trend (5's) is counter the Daily (1 hr), be careful and small until price breaks the prior old support/resistance, When Now is with the daily petal to the metal.

Does that make sense????

a

might add it's a slow time of day to trade
  • #5,255
  • Aug 13, 2008 3:33pm Aug 13, 2008 3:33pm
Lusan,

just a simple approach
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  • #5,256
  • Aug 13, 2008 3:38pm Aug 13, 2008 3:38pm
Quoting auxesis
This is just my take, hopefully Fti will chime in.

You have two different trends going on daily trend (hourly turn points shown) Now trend (5 minute turn points shown) ...... In an up trend the lows will be higher, down trend highs lower.

If in an up trend, price makes a new high, as long as it dosent break the immediate low it just came from it's still in an up trend, the low should hold on the following south retrace and then it should make a new high, right

back wards in down trend.

When now trend (5's) is counter the Daily (1 hr), be careful and small until price breaks the prior old support/resistance, When Now is with the daily petal to the metal.

Does that make sense????

a

might add it's a slow time of day to trade
My friend this, standard analysis...Dow theory, but I do not think we operate that way...we are mostly into wave analysis...fore example 5M wave contained within the 15 wave, contained within the 1H which is contain into the 1D time frame...If you set a 15M and MA(48) you will see PA wrapping around that average as if the MA(48 was pole...it is really amazing...

Look after he identify the trend for the next 4 hours, he buy low and accumulate using the fibo...that is what I see...very safe and smart but we need to have the scout right...actually it could be done in 2 different ways: if the scout is right,,,then accumulate, if the scout is wrong then accumulate and carry on...but you need big pocket if things goes wrong...that is what I understand...

So the near term trend...and the scout are key --->anyway, this is what I understand...If I am wrong, I am ready to learn...

Regard, time to collect my profit.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #5,257
  • Aug 13, 2008 3:38pm Aug 13, 2008 3:38pm
Follow up,

You can see how you can get trapped quickly changing directions constantly, ie... being piggy.

Tis is best to stick with the daily trend and trade when Now is in the Daily's direction, ( use the same methodoligy)
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  • #5,258
  • Aug 13, 2008 3:41pm Aug 13, 2008 3:41pm
Quoting auxesis
Lusan,

just a simple approach
Nice chart...that was my original idea...but fti does the other way around...he would be selling Euro as a fibo to the top and they just collect as we are doing now..due to 1H and cross analysis...both works... the question is which one is safer?

Regards,

Bye the way, all this is fine as long as there are not news around, right?
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #5,259
  • Aug 13, 2008 3:50pm Aug 13, 2008 3:50pm
Moving averages are like that, they are a mean average, price will speed up and move away but as it slows the average catches up. Plot a 24 hr average. 96 on a 15 minute 24 on an hourly chart, and you will see price revert back to it after NY ends almost every time after the daily push. But be careful MA's can distort your view. Price will do what it wants and the MA will follow afterwards.
  • #5,260
  • Edited 4:02pm Aug 13, 2008 3:52pm | Edited 4:02pm
Quoting luSan
...but fti does the other way around...he would be selling Euro as a fibo to the top and they just collect as we are doing now..due to 1H and cross analysis... right?
Please point me to where he does this?

It was my understanding to add skew as the move progresses into profit. There are times when the retrace might pull back farther than first though, but the context of the chart should hold. I might enter scout or position on a retrace, the retrace might continue deeper giving a chance to add more, but the last turn in the trend should hold, else i'm looking to rescue and turn on wind possible or stand aside.
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