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Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading

  • #1,061
  • Aug 12, 2008 10:35am Aug 12, 2008 10:35am
I had a look at the monthly charts to look at the ranges and found that between 1997 and 2003 (top to bottom) a range of 2700pips occurred. In theory with this system it's entirely possible to enter a long position near the top and then have that position go against you for 11 years before it comes back to close to where you entered.

#Isn't this a major risk in this system? It appears to me that this system relies on constant supply of retracements for each move(entered on) in order to continue profiting.

The only plus I can find on dangling positions is that as you continue to profit the drawdown % of the account diminishes as your equity increases(as long as you profit faster than the dangler loses).

Does this make any sense?#

I can close sometimes the last 1.2.3 lots with a loss if we are quite far from entry place.usually working the position allows me to get a profit anyway even if som elots are closed with a loss.
  • #1,062
  • Aug 12, 2008 10:37am Aug 12, 2008 10:37am
#
Hi spieler,
if i open two sell position by today but %change for EURCHF never reach the target (0%), i should close both position or wait until it become 0% (may be after few day)?
Please advice.
Thanks.#

THis startegy is not an intraday one so you can keep no problem or close if you are close to zero but you are supposed to keep on in the case you describ
  • #1,063
  • Aug 12, 2008 10:42am Aug 12, 2008 10:42am
T#oday we have opened after the gap. So today we open longs @ 1.6187 and close apppr @ 1.6227. We are going after these 40 pips that the gap has created.#

which gap are you talking about ?? on a 24h/24h trading??

That's how I understand the situation and that's what I am doing. ]

The gap closed nicely, even better than I expected.

The only thing that I have doubts - if I open the position just few hours before day's close, the price still moves in one or other direction, then after the day's close I have new levels that's hard to follow 'cause I have a trade open from the previous day when everybody else in my opinion is doing the opposite trade from the new level. I don't know how to solve this problem so I cheat: today to offset the position that I had left, I simply shorted only usd/chf from 1.0913 - it worked fine. Please don't follow me, as I don't want to mess up a thread of a person much more experienced than I am. It is just discretionary thing I did for myself to get rid of the position that bothered me a little bit.

Absolutly no hard to follow , very easy.

exemple you are long at 162 we close at 161.80 you wait 162.40 to exit ( half) we close to 162.20 you still wait 162.40.
so i dont see the problem
  • #1,064
  • Edited 11:59am Aug 12, 2008 11:57am | Edited 11:59am
I was talking about the gap btw the Friday's close and Monday's open.

I agree the system is very easy to follow - I like it very much, sometimes, though it is hard for me to stay on my own, when everybody else in the system is having the opposite trade. I am trading live account, and using this system only for few days, it takes time to develop a confidence doing something I have never done before (going against the establishe trend on the basis of daily % moves from the previous day's open). O, yes I can go against the trend also, but usually I'd look at S/R levels on dailies, divergencies btw price and rsi, so I'd feel more confident. That's the "difficult" part while a am a newbie here.

Thanks for sharing the system, mr. Spieler.
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  • #1,065
  • Aug 12, 2008 7:31pm Aug 12, 2008 7:31pm
I think a lot people here always confuse about position . Always keep thinking when long or short position hedging was open but doesnt make any profit,they will think how long this position will be keep until profit.For example we open at long when eur/chf divergence on -0.25 =2.2222 ,but the hedge position(e/u & u/chf) keep loss when eur/chf drop until 2.2111.A lot people will ask how to recover this if not enter the 2nd lot.Is it going to wait till 2.2288?
  • #1,066
  • Aug 12, 2008 7:51pm Aug 12, 2008 7:51pm
Quoting pipsrobber
I think a lot people here always confuse about position . Always keep thinking when long or short position hedging was open but doesnt make any profit,they will think how long this position will be keep until profit.For example we open at long when eur/chf divergence on -0.25 =2.2222 ,but the hedge position(e/u & u/chf) keep loss when eur/chf drop until 2.2111.A lot people will ask how to recover this if not enter the 2nd lot.Is it going to wait till 2.2288?
Pipsrobber,

Take a look at this post for some understanding....
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=932
and
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1016
  • #1,067
  • Edited 10:10am Aug 13, 2008 9:48am | Edited 10:10am
With 10K i would start with 20k eur/usd and 30k(31K if possible) usd/chf
after 3 rounds you will have 60K eur/usd and 90K usd/chf .

Hi Spieler
With this ratio of trade is it safe to use 1:200 leverage as you are somehow hedged ? Or what is your leverage recomandation?
Thanks
  • #1,068
  • Aug 13, 2008 10:19am Aug 13, 2008 10:19am
Just went long. I missed the signal a bit but it seems to still go down so no problem there. Anyone with me?
  • #1,069
  • Aug 13, 2008 10:47am Aug 13, 2008 10:47am
I am
  • #1,070
  • Aug 13, 2008 12:32pm Aug 13, 2008 12:32pm

I am out
  • #1,071
  • Aug 13, 2008 12:38pm Aug 13, 2008 12:38pm
May be early but profit is a profit
  • #1,072
  • Aug 13, 2008 12:57pm Aug 13, 2008 12:57pm
Well I left it running a little for a nice profit...

But I am still in one long position from last week (like you skyline i bet) and i am still waiting for a big retracement to close it down...

BD
  • #1,073
  • Aug 13, 2008 2:38pm Aug 13, 2008 2:38pm
Quoting boeingdriver
Well I left it running a little for a nice profit...

But I am still in one long position from last week (like you skyline i bet) and i am still waiting for a big retracement to close it down...

BD
No I'm still with 2 long positions opened , waiting price to go up and grab some nice pips
  • #1,074
  • Aug 13, 2008 2:41pm Aug 13, 2008 2:41pm
Hi guys

Been reading a lot on this and the other thread these days..
yesterday i made a short, today long.

I think i have cut profit a bit as today i went out before crossing 0%..

but yeah, a profit is a profit

Dan.-
  • #1,075
  • Aug 13, 2008 9:53pm Aug 13, 2008 9:53pm
with 10k best is to start with 16000 eur/usd and 24000 usd/chf

1/200 1/100 or 1/400 change only margin requirement not the leverage used.


am still long half a lot at 161.90 i was very closed to th eexit and finally went down.

161.80 so far
waiting -0.25% compared to yesterday close to add extra lot or 162.40/50 to exit and then short
  • #1,076
  • Aug 14, 2008 12:18am Aug 14, 2008 12:18am
spieler-

Have you had a chance to check out my Post 1016 yet?
  • #1,077
  • Aug 14, 2008 1:11am Aug 14, 2008 1:11am
#Well, I was quite close but as you said still errors. Thanks for your reply which clarifies the basic entry rules perfectly. I do know that the previous days close, speed of the market and W/E gaps must always be taken into account and so these are just a basic guide to the entry points. I have now tried to add the basic exit and re-entry points to the schedule as I currently understand them, please can you confirm they are correct or amend any errors.

1lot -0.25( or +0.25 of course) – Exit at 0.00
lot 2 -0.25 – Exit on 0.25 pb/ re-enter at -0.50 from previous entry
lot 3 -0.25 – Exit on 0.25 pb/ re-enter at -0.50 from previous entry
lot 4 -0.50 exit 0.25 pull back (pb) - re-enter at -0.50 from previous entry
Note: If first 4 entries in and no pullback then delay lot 5 until -1.0 not -0.50
Exit on -0.50 not -0.25and re-enter on -1.0 from previous entry
lot 5 -0.50 exit 0.25pb – re-enter at -0.50 from previous entry
lot 6 -1 exit 0.50 pb – re-enter at -1.00 from previous entry
lot 7 -1 exit 0.50 pb – re-enter at -1.00 from previous entry
lot 8 -2 exit 1 pb – re-enter at -2.00 from previous entry
lot 9 -2 exit 1 pb – re-enter at -2.00 from previous entry
lot10 -3% double lots exit 2pb -– re-enter ??#



first lot exit only half at 0 trying to keep remaining till +0.25% more than 0

ok for the rest but to be sure can you precise following with an exemple?

the +0.50 reentry for the second lot after having cut i am not sure i understand you reentry formulation
  • #1,078
  • Edited 2:45am Aug 14, 2008 2:20am | Edited 2:45am
spieler-

[color=black]
Quoting spieler;2164838[/COLOR

first lot exit only half at 0 trying to keep remaining till +0.25% more than 0
Only when market returns to zero at Fast Speed or always?

ok for the rest but to be sure can you precise following with an exemple?
Sorry, I don't understand. Are you asking me to post an example of how these entries and exits would have been made on a previous trend move so you can be certain I have them correct?

the +0.50 reentry for the second lot after having cut i am not sure i understand you reentry formulation
When managing a position, after externalizing profit on a 0.25 pull back my understanding is that we should then wait for another 0.50 from previous entry point (ie 0.75 from last exit point) before next re-entry. This is for re-entries in the 1% zone. When exit is made on 0.50 pull back then we must wait another 1.0 from previous entry point to re-enter.
  • #1,079
  • Edited 3:40am Aug 14, 2008 3:02am | Edited 3:40am
#ok for the rest but to be sure can you precise following with an exemple?
Sorry, I don't understand. Are you asking me to post an example of how these entries and exits would have been made on a previous trend move so you can be certain I have them correct?

the +0.50 reentry for the second lot after having cut i am not sure i understand you reentry formulation
When managing a position, after externalizing profit on a 0.25 pull back my understanding is that we should then wait for another 0.50 from previous entry point (ie 0.75 from last exit point) before next re-entry. This is for re-entries in the 1% zone. When exit is made on 0.50 pull back then we must wait another 1.0 from previous entry point to re-enter.#



My remark was concerning reentry only ( i wrotte can you precise following , following standed for question under, apologise for my freaking english

once you are out second lot you reenter only 0.25% under the last entry ( 0.50 under the exit and not 0.75).
when range market sometimes i even reenter same price as last enter lot
  • #1,080
  • Aug 14, 2008 4:44am Aug 14, 2008 4:44am
spieler-

Ah... Thank you. I was thinking 0.50 from last entry was possiably allowing the price to pull away a bit to far. Much better at 0.50 from last EXIT.

Does this look correct now ?

1lot -0.25( or +0.25 of course) – Exit half at 0.00, other half close to +0.25
lot 2 -0.25 – Exit on 0.25 pb/ re-enter at -0.50 from previous exit
lot 3 -0.25 – Exit on 0.25 pb/ re-enter at -0.50 from previous exit
lot 4 -0.50 exit 0.25 pull back (pb) - re-enter at -0.50 from previous exit
Note: If first 4 entries in and no pullback then delay lot 5 until -1.0 not -0.50
Exit on -0.50 not -0.25and re-enter on -1.0 from previous exit
lot 5 -0.50 exit 0.25pb – re-enter at -0.50 from previous exit
lot 6 -1 exit 0.50 pb – re-enter at -1.00 from previous exit
lot 7 -1 exit 0.50 pb – re-enter at -1.00 from previous exit
lot 8 -2 exit 1 pb – re-enter at -2.00 from previous exit
lot 9 -2 exit 1 pb – re-enter at -2.00 from previous exit
lot10 -3% double lots exit 2pb -– No re-entry, just hold until pb

No problem with your English, is much better than my freaking French
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