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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #12,501
  • Aug 13, 2008 6:15am Aug 13, 2008 6:15am
Hi guys,

What are your thoughts on discretionary approach to risk.

Let's take PBs as an example. Risking 1-2% on evry PB doesn't make much sense - after all we have "C" PBs and we have "A++" PBs. Why not increase risk to, say, 5% with "A++" PBs?
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #12,502
  • Aug 13, 2008 7:51am Aug 13, 2008 7:51am
There appears to be a pinbar on the nzd/jpy daily chart. I'm unable to post charts still trying to figure out this mac/parallels thing. my apologies.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #12,503
  • Edited 8:28am Aug 13, 2008 8:15am | Edited 8:28am
Quoting Forex007
Hi guys,

What are your thoughts on discretionary approach to risk.

Let's take PBs as an example. Risking 1-2% on evry PB doesn't make much sense - after all we have "C" PBs and we have "A++" PBs. Why not increase risk to, say, 5% with "A++" PBs?
Well, for starters, Risking 1-2% on every pin bar DOES make sense. Have you heard of compounding??

To give the answer you were probably after though...

"Depends on your confidence/experience."

The ABSOLUTELY NUMBER ONE FACTOR is keeping your account healthy. You want it to be around long enough for you to gain experience. You won't be if you go in too hard and fast!!

If you are choosing those different grade trades well and can manage them well too, go ahead.

....And that's not just the past handful. If you've established yourself a track record of being profitable for a quite a while, then by all means ramp up the percentage on the A+++ trades when you trade them. (Those trades will be MUCH MUCH rarer by the way. Once a month. Sometimes there might be more.)

Just be SURE that you are not letting greed cloud your judgement. (and that's very hard to avoid.)

If your asking this question, then I'm sure you shouldn't be going for %5 risk. It's too much.
...That only allows for a handful of losers before your account is busted!
How about increasing it a little bit for now on those 'best A+++ set up' trades, eh?

Maybe 3% ...on the absolute best daily pin bars only.
...Try that first for a while.
And careful of how much of your account is in the whole market!
Don't go and risk 3% on two trades at once on similar pairs just because everything throws signals up on the same day.

Edit: I hope no-one reading this goes straight to trading these percentages. It's not good for anyone with an un-proven trading history still! Not good at all!!
.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #12,504
  • Aug 13, 2008 8:26am Aug 13, 2008 8:26am
Im watching more than 10 currency pairs. And similar setups time to time comes up on several pairs.

What are those pairs who act similar and who act in different light?

Because, I have been in situations, where I put 2 orders on similar setups and they both go against me, because these pairs act similar.


I'm more interested in those pairs, who act absolutely different, to get unique setups.

I hope you understood what I wanted to say.
  • #12,505
  • Aug 13, 2008 8:34am Aug 13, 2008 8:34am
Quoting stopman
Im watching more than 10 currency pairs. And similar setups time to time comes up on several pairs.

What are those pairs who act similar and who act in different light?

Because, I have been in situations, where I put 2 orders on similar setups and they both go against me, because these pairs act similar.


I'm more interested in those pairs, who act absolutely different, to get unique setups.

I hope you understood what I wanted to say.
Hi Stop,

Simplify man. You have no idea how much good it will do you to focus on one or two or three pairs and gain confidence in their movements. Learn to SEE resistance support factors. ....learn to read and feel the price action at it's heart beat on those few pairs. You'll have more time to do so.

EURUSD is good to trade. And cheap
USDCAD moves different enough to add to the watch list.
And a GBP based pair. GBPJPY doesn't suit some account sizes though. (?)

Someone else maybe can throw a couple of more suggestions??

Edit: P.S. There are very successful traders out there that trade only one pair!
.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #12,506
  • Aug 13, 2008 9:00am Aug 13, 2008 9:00am
Quoting SeekingLight
Nice picture, isn't it

You should have labeled the arrowed weekly IB though

Could be you can come back in 3 months and say hey, look what that IB did!
Turns out you didn't need to wait that long after all!
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #12,507
  • Aug 13, 2008 9:02am Aug 13, 2008 9:02am
Good day traders...

Last week I posted 3 pin bars on the H4 GBPUSD EURJPY & USDCHF. After sitting on my hands for a week other than the GBPJPY PB I decided hey lets go slumming down to the H4. Sure enough all three of these setups failed miserably! It just goes to show how much more powerful the Daily is compared to the H4. The H4 is best left alone... I hope this helps those who are eager to trade any pin bar they see in sight... "Plan The Trade Then Trade The Plan..."
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  • #12,508
  • Aug 13, 2008 9:05am Aug 13, 2008 9:05am
Quoting Forex007
What are your thoughts on discretionary approach to risk.

Let's take PBs as an example. Risking 1-2% on evry PB doesn't make much sense - after all we have "C" PBs and we have "A++" PBs. Why not increase risk to, say, 5% with "A++" PBs?
Some might say all you're doing with randomizing your risk is randomizing your equity curve and chance of kicking yourself in the groin in the end.

Another way to think about these things:
Any setup you trade should be high enough grade to warrant your normal risk % in the first place, no?
Taking trades that seem so iffy that they're worth less risk in the first place runs risk of feeling a little like "I can't just have ALL winners, I deserve some punishment sometimes".

I mean, what ARE we saying to ourselves when we put money on substandard setups?

IMHO a sound and ideal way of thinking is more: "When I enter a trade, I have made sure I have found as many reasons why it has a good chance to go/work out and therefore I feel good about the risk I take."
Reducing risk is just trying to weasel out of responsibility for the trade(= our own decision!) due to it being "smaller risk so it doesn't really matter".
IMHO we(explicitly me included) play these mind tricks on ourselves ALL THE TIME.

Just my opinion of course, I could be wrong(and I know that many disagree).
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #12,509
  • Aug 13, 2008 9:08am Aug 13, 2008 9:08am
1 more chart to see more failed pin bars... Daily is where it's at...
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  • #12,510
  • Aug 13, 2008 9:24am Aug 13, 2008 9:24am
NZD/USD
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  • #12,511
  • Aug 13, 2008 9:32am Aug 13, 2008 9:32am
Quoting soeasy69
1 more chart to see more failed pin bars... Daily is where it's at...
It wasn't failed pinbar at all. It went exactly where it should , it closed the gap and went down. Good trader would manage minimum breakeven on that.
  • #12,512
  • Aug 13, 2008 9:39am Aug 13, 2008 9:39am
Quoting soeasy69
1 more chart to see more failed pin bars... Daily is where it's at...
one thing to note is that each of those failed Pb's you mentioned occur on the end of your trading week, could this be that sunday candle a few brokers do have a problem of? it was discussed earlier that these candles obviosuly hold no significance and they are best ignored...
I believe . . .
  • #12,513
  • Aug 13, 2008 9:42am Aug 13, 2008 9:42am
Quoting Greenhaze
NZD/USD
WOW! nice one Greenhaze, i was wondering what was holding the pirce on Nu, i totally neglected this long term support line, i'll be watching the week's close eagerly...thnx

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #12,514
  • Aug 13, 2008 9:44am Aug 13, 2008 9:44am
Quoting ghous
one thing to note is that each of those failed Pb's you mentioned occur on the end of your trading week, could this be that sunday candle a few brokers do have a problem of? it was discussed earlier that these candles obviosuly hold no significance and they are best ignored...
No tiny Sunday bars at FXDD...they were just PB's that should be avoided IMHO. Have a grrrreat day! Good luck and good trading...
  • #12,515
  • Aug 13, 2008 10:54am Aug 13, 2008 10:54am
GBPCHF.
I know this will show up completely different on other brokers due to the Sunday start, but just taking this chart for what it is it makes sense. Or at least it did to me last night.

IB then BEOB/DBHLC combo, with a retrace to the small PPZ(2) inside of that upper congestion area. Also weak MACD.

You could also have viewed this as a bigger inside bar like windup formation(it actually was on weekly) up there, with the lower s/r boundary marked with (1) being it's low and breaking point for entry. There was support below, both from prior highs as well as the TL, but after being confined to such tight space for such a long period, I assume price just really wanted to go somewhere, and it did.

Waiting to see whether we lose 2.0 just as swiftly as GJ lost 209.

In the case of this chart the blue giant swabs are more "look out" areas than precision spots, and the marked in actual horizontals are places I respect a bit more(as they should be from monthly IIRC). Looking over it the blue swabs probably obscure more than they help. If I can't find too many good spots to place s/r, then I doubt others can, either, which in my mind just encourages more smash through like behaviour eventually. If you can't concentrate orders in a clearly visible spot, then it's harder to hit price with it would be my reasoning.

P.S. Seems MT4 once more skewed the upper TL between closing/opening it, it was supposed to connect originally. The magic of free software.
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Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #12,516
  • Aug 13, 2008 11:25am Aug 13, 2008 11:25am
Bundy and SeekingLight, thanks a lot for your thoughts!

I agree - viewing risk as "it doesn't matter, I am ONLY risking 1%" is not right. If one is happy with the reasons for taking a trade, than whatever amount one is risking (1-2-3-X%) is simply a prudent money management, not an excuse to take dubious trade because of "just 1% risk".

Perhaps, adding to the position (under right conditions) is a better way to increase position size, especially if you can increase the size and still move SL to a BE point...
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #12,517
  • Aug 13, 2008 11:27am Aug 13, 2008 11:27am
Good , deep analysis as always SeekingLight. Maybe you could help me SL.
Sometimes i put pending limit orders before i go to work.
Is there any robot which will start when pending order trigger and eventually move s/l to breakeven after x pips?
  • #12,518
  • Aug 13, 2008 11:38am Aug 13, 2008 11:38am
Quoting Greenhaze
Good , deep analysis as always SeekingLight. Maybe you could help me SL.
Sometimes i put pending limit orders before i go to work.
Is there any robot which will start when pending order trigger and eventually move s/l to breakeven after x pips?
there are many such EA's out there, i persoanlly don't use them but i did obtain one soemwhere around this thread, let me see if i can find the file...

Yup here it is,

this will help you manage your SL's and Tps well...

Regards,
Ghous.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 managetpv34.mq4   6 KB | 813 downloads
I believe . . .
  • #12,519
  • Aug 13, 2008 12:02pm Aug 13, 2008 12:02pm
Quoting jarroo
I guess I should have let some ride. Oh well, I traded my plan. damn look at it go.
darnit jarroo ... i was sure i was going to read how you caught that other 300-400 pip drop!!! no matter, still a good trade on your part.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #12,520
  • Aug 13, 2008 12:05pm Aug 13, 2008 12:05pm
Looking good houston
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